Today was a slightly positive day that wiped yesterday's loss, not that that should matter. I decided to take my closed PnL completely off my screen as well. I'll only look at it at the end of the day otherwise I don't want to see it. I did close out a trade prematurely today to get back to flat or slightly up on the day which is a mistake. Other than that the day was pretty much have decent ideas, not getting filled on some or not taking them and my only losing trade being a good stop out (gave it enough room) but would have worked very, very well but that's trading and that's just hindsight. Improvements still need to be made to psychology but the hesitation to take trades is starting to go away with either reduced size/the fact that my reads have overall been pretty decent, which is furthering the belief that I can be a consistently successful trader. I have to repeat to myself: I AM A CONSISTENTLY PROFITABLE TRADER - WHAT WOULD A CONSISTENTLY PROFITABLE TRADER DO IN THIS SITUATION?
JACK: What a miss this stock was even though I did actually trade it. I happened to trade it at the only time throughout the day that I was going to lose on it - frustrating but nothing really can be done. I took the trade that I saw and at that point it clearly wasn't working so I got out. I did have conviction in it but I wasn't going to be stupid and not stop out. Anyway, my main interest in it stemmed from the fact that it had good earnings/guidance yet was gapping down. I thought it could be bought at the open. I saw it come into the premarket support and was battling whether or not I should go long. I wasn't even going to do big size - just something to get in. The thoughts about what if it went to $97 etc came into play. Even though my plan would have been to add at $97 and see then stop out under it since I would have had smaller size but I couldn't pull the trigger. Pretty much that was the reason I didn't take it - what if it went lower? Well guess what?? It ripped $5 in a minute - so how's that working for you?? Either way I am glad this happened because my belief system and fears are radically starting to shift. It's gotten to the point where I just say fuck it and whatever happens, happens. Anyway, what I did actually do was wait for it to pullback to vwap and a very nice level of support on the hourly. I figured nice support + vwap = nice entry. So my bid got filled but it just went through it. I gave it over/under but I have it a $1 but it just went lower. So it didn't work for my particular trade. I tried putting a bid at the lows to see if it would retest but it never got there. I saw it channeling around vwap but noticed it made that new 52week high by a slim margin in the morning so I thought maybe the stock has to consolidate for a bit and the morning move was it. I didn't know there was a CC but I saw the symbol on TOS and didn't want to be in it anyway during the CC but the stock ripped after it and never looked back. I tried looking for an intelligent entry afterwards but didn't really see anything. So the particular trade I took I have no regrets over - I took it and it was a good entry in my opinion and it just didn't work on my timeframe and didn't seem like it was going work even after giving it ample room. The only lesson is to TAKE THE FUCKING TRADE!
BBY: This was the stock I mentioned in the intro that I took off prematurely when I was down from JACK just to get flat for the day. I missed the vwap entry since my focus was on other stocks but saw that it was still strong today. I ended up buying the breakout with chase size just in case. I knew it was strong but my entry wasn't the best. But it did end up working although it took time and it was choppy. Once it got above another resistance level I added and then just let it go higher. I saw the prior high from day 1 was at .72 and it was speeding up into that level so I thought I should take it off but when the market was pulling back hard, BBY was still going up so I had a feeling this could go higher. However, I put my stop to get me out at a price that would get me flat for the day at least. I should have just moved it up a bit more and given it some room because it clearly was strong as I just mentioned. However, it dipped a little and got me out and then it proceeded to just go higher. I could have gotten another 20 cents or so more on the trade had I not been so focused on my PnL. So that got me to remove the closed PnL from my screen - it serves no purpose anyway. Another thing to remember, and I mentioned this before, is that in the beginning parts of the trade, it didn't look so hot when I was in it. But the minute movement it does in the beginning doesn't mean anything. It ended up going higher than you thought it would and in the beginning you were thinking of just getting out. Part of this was due to the slight chasing and the fact that it made a new high and then dipped back but again - just because it doesn't go right away after making a new high, doesn't mean that is it.
SIG: I wasn't sure what to do with this since I thought the gap was overdone but I figured there would be shorts in this from before due to that report. So what ended up happening is the shorts covered at the open and when it made a new high it just got slammed way down. So once I saw that and it was under vwap, I didn't short it against vwap but I saw that it was forming a base and it looked good for a breakdown at that point. It definitely got stuffed hard and it seemed that all the shorts were out and now it could fade. I tried getting filled a few times but never got it unfortunately. It faded nicely from there. I saw it consolidating a bit lower and under the premarket levels so I thought a short under it would be good. I got filled half my already small shares but then added. I was up a nice amount but trailed my stop which got taken out. It was a small gain at that point but it ended up going past my average back to my initial first entry. I thought about shorting there but that it had bottomed a bit due to the way it acted around the whole number but the pop was a great entry and it went lower from there. The only lessons here are the same as BBY - don't be so focused on what the minute price action is at the beginning of the trade. You don't know how it will end up. Also, the little stuff doesn't mean everything. The reshort was a good opportunity and a better entry anyway.
One thing when I looked back at the action on SIG was after it stuffed at the open, a reshort at the premkt resistance was good. This could be just hindsight speaking but I have seen that work before. You have to give it some room though in case it goes a bit higher to vwap. I would only have given it to vwap since you don't know if it wants to retest the highs and then fade or recollect and climb higher.
PANW: I thought the gap down and fade was overdone so I was looking at support levels from premkt to see if they would hold. The only thing taking me away from having conviction is if this is a stock that was a growth stock that hasn't fulfilled everybody's expectations and now they get hammered for it. I saw $140 was holding for a while so I tried to buy in front of that but my entry was poorish although I had small shares but I wanted to get out for flat and wait for a better entry. I got out for flat and then left it alone. I wasn't interested in shorting the base break although that worked very well. I left it alone after that.
Other stocks:
BURL: I knew this had good earnings and could keep its gap. At the open it dipped to vwap but I didn't put a bid there or anything. I haven't tried doing that right at the open like that but it did work for a good scalp. I saw it had huge volume and kind of stuffed so that would have been a good out I guess. Hard to say as it could have gone higher despite the volume although it was running into the open. Anyway it came off hard to a random spot so no place to put bid. I wanted to see if it would hold over vwap but I missed my entry even though it clearly went back to vwap and retested and then never looked back. I guess I was afraid to take it although it was a very good setup and something I could have added to along the way. This goes back to what I mentioned in JACK: Just take the trade. Honestly at this point you will be happier you took it even if it doesn't work out.
AVXL: Just one thing to note was it flushed at the open. These are good for either vwap retests of if there is premkt support that it is now under, then a retest of that usually works.
Things to remember:
1. Don't trade PnL. Trade the setup and what the market gives you.
2. Take the fucking trade and fuck it! Remember everything you learned in Trading in the Zone.
3. What would a consistently profitable trader do?
4. "Fake" highs and lows don't have to be it
5. The minute beginning parts of the trade don't always mean anything so forget it.
6. Short the retest of premkt support or vwap on low float names when they fail at the open.
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