Trading Recap 1/30/15

Today will probably be the last day for me paper trading and moving onto a small real account. I probably wouldn't have made this trade if I was trading for real and that is why it probably didn't work, although the market didn't help.

White arrows are entries.

AAPL: I saw an almost ABCD forming in addition to channel forming on AAPL. I thought that with the recent earnings it could continue its momentum. I also wanted to practice buying the dip instead of breakouts. I saw it break the channel but come down. However, the prior resistance was acting as support so I started in with the mentality of right or right out and set a very tight stop. The stop triggered and I lost a very small amount. I then retried since it was acting as support again with another tight stop but it just triggered my stop again for another small loss. In hindsight it would have been a nice short because of the rejection of going to new highs. I will work on that going into the future. I think I just wanted to see how buying dips instead of buying the pure breakout would turn out. Either would have failed but buying the dip exposed me to less risk so I will look to also work on that going forward.

Things to work on:

1. Continue to buy the dip on long opportunities if possible.
2. Always be on the lookout for failed moves.
3.  No afternoon lull trades unless the setup is great.

Trading Recap 1/26/15

Today was sort of a dead day in the markets and I chose to just focus on the best setups and not overtrade in this environment. I am taking what I said Friday seriously about just finding the best setups and trying to add size when possible, especially in dead markets. In addition, I am starting to incorporate having a big picture sense of things and not being shaken out on the 1min movements.

White arrows are entries.

LUV: I had this on watch for either a short or a long depending on how it played out. Initially I wanted to go long around 9:37 before it went green but as I was putting in my order, it went without me. I still kept it on watch and saw a potential ABCD pattern emerging. Going off of what I had said Friday, I tried to buy higher lows/dips in anticipation of the continuation. However, the move didn't happen right away and it pulled back and triggered my stop for a very tiny loss. It then proceeded to go nhod but I saw that it was having trouble and possibly getting stuffed at the nhod so I went short and made a small gain on the downside. It double bottomed before going to new highs in the afternoon but I didn't play that.

FXCM: Decent winner for me. I saw the failed follow through momentum and lower highs so I decided to get short near the highs. In hindsight I should have waited until the base cracked and then short the pops due to the SSR, but the setup looked good. When it cracked I added, but I should have been more patient with the adds since the SSR was on. I thought it could crack more right away and wanted to get in but it started grinding a little but I kept my over/under 2.60s as a guide and it promptly trapped some longs and flushed again. I kept the full position for the rest of the day since like I said, I am trying to incorporate the big picture into my trades. It held the 38s for a while and I should have covered some there at least to give myself some room but I used .50 over/under as my guide and it kept peaking there so I kept it on. I covered right before the close.

Things to work on:

1. Add on pops and don't be impatient for adding size because you think it will go down right away, especially when SSR is on.
2. On ABCD patterns, just wait for it to break the "ceiling"/previous high. I have noticed that there are plenty of ABCD patterns where they fail and never triggered above the prior high but the ones that do, usually have a nice reward even if you didn't buy the dip.
3. Wait for the crack of support on SSR late day fade plays before shorting. This one worked out, but others may not.

Trading Recap 1/23/15

I finally got to trade this week but unfortunately this Friday afternoon was a low volume environment. I think my eagerness to trade may have gotten me into plays that I would not take normally. I am still paper trading and I have a feeling if I was trading real money I would not have taken the only losing trade for me today. There were some nice shorts like TASR and FXCM that I was considering but I did not take them. I only had a very small loss for the day and kept calm throughout it and mostly patient so that is good. Before I would get excited for every tick up/down in my direction, now I am just much more calm.

I need to work on my longs and buying on dips in anticipation of the breakout instead of the breakout itself. I can short pops when shorting, but I am just not used to buying dips when going long so I will focus on that going forward.

White arrows are entries.

TKMR: I saw higher lows developing on the daily and that peaked my interest for a day trade. I then saw an ABCD pattern forming/ascending triangle and I set a buy limit right above the HOD which got filled. It came down and I was considering taking it off but I saw it making a double bottom at a prior low and kept it and then it went to new highs at 26 before coming down. I set my stop to breakeven and I got filled. I could have taken a small gain theoretically but I was only up .20/share and wanted to be patient. I figured if I get stopped out at breakeven, no big deal.

UPS: This was my loser for the day. There was poor earnings guidance and fell sharply, but I saw an intraday cup and handle forming and decided to get long above it. It came down but made a higher low so I stayed in. It then went up to 104 before getting rejected and coming back down. I put my stop at the higher low and it got filled. I was only up around .20/share on a $100 stock and I thought it could keep going but it didn't so I stopped out. The setup wasn't great but it was alright, just didn't work. I was considering put the stop to breakeven but I thought it would make a higher low before going past 104, but it didn't.

LOCO: I actually saw the r/g move and wanted to get in but I was in class and didn't take it. That would have been nice. However, it was still on watch and I saw it setting higher lows after the big move. I saw where the resistance was and I took it once it broke out. It set a higher low which was fine and then channeled for a bit. I stayed patient throughout and increased my stop to right under the channel. It went to .50 but then got stuffed and so I put my stop to breakeven and I got stopped out there for flat.

CSC: I shorted this after a decent move up and it hitting resistance on the daily. What really convinced me was the 15 min candle which was a pure plunger candle right at the highs and it looked like an ideal 15s setup. I went short some after it went below the candle's low and I wanted to readd on the lower highs but never did. With the way the market was I didn't trust anything so I put my stop to the prior support thinking if it went back and reclaimed it, it could go higher. I think if this was any other time of day, I would have still kept it in because I was never underwater, but I wanted to play it safe. Again, not having traded the entire week gave me a big urge to just trade today. It ended up fading nicely the rest of the day. Note: stop out was at the price line in the chart below.

Things to work on:

1. Don't trade at bad times with low volume/the lull just because you weren't able to trade before.
2. Buy dips instead of breakouts if possible for longs.

Trading Recap 1/16/15

Have not posted/traded in a while due to going back to school but starting to get into swing of things again. I told myself I will always do a recap to go over what I did right/wrong whenever I trade so even though I just made one small trade, here is the recap.

Out of all the potential plays I saw midday yesterday I seemed to have picked the one with the least profit potential. I saw JNJ and was eyeing a short on a lower high since I saw the daily and that stock typically does not have huge range, so when I saw some speeding up in price action I kept it on radar. Unfortunately, I wasn't paying attention and it went without me. I also saw ASPS but could not find a place to enter. OCN/PCP I was also eyeing for a short but didn't get in.

White arrow is entry.

BBY: I saw higher lows starting to accumulate towards the r/g line. I saw that it had flirted with that line before so I bought when it went above the last time it went green. On the 5min I also saw an almost ABCD pattern forming. It was a little slow but it kept making higher lows so I saw no reason to get out. However, I noticed an ascending wedge forming on the 1min, so I became a bit more cautious for any signs of weakness especially with the market being how it has been. I saw a little base forming on the 1min and put a stop for half my shares to below there because I was starting to think this may be a fake NHOD as I detail below. I got stopped out for some profit and put the rest of the shares at breakeven. It then made another nhod but got stuffed and went all the way back to red before going to new highs.

Obviously if I had held through the day I would have made more but I like to keep losses at a minimum and I would have sold at breakeven on all of it if I hadn't sold half when it made new highs. Like I said, if a stock is making new highs it shouldn't come all the way back down and go red for the day.

I will be getting a Suretrader account soon to put real money to work and I look forward to putting my skill to the test.

I have also been looking at what I call NHOD rejections which would have worked very well on many stocks this past week such as ARNA, AGEN, BBRY. It is when a stock barely gets a push to make a nhod but there is no follow through. The thesis behind it is when a stock makes a NHOD, there should be a surge in price due to buyers being able to make new highs for the day. When a stock gets stuffed immediately or almost immediately, it tells me the stock is heavy and it can almost be considered a fakeout to trap longs. In all three stocks above, if you had shorted near that NHOD, you would have been able to hold the short throughout the entire day since after that fakeout the stocks just faded. On the BBY pictures, you can see the slow NHODs it was making before washing out to red. When the stock rebounded and came back to test the prior HOD and went past it, that is what a true breakout should look like, a nice surge in price upwards.

Things to work on:
 1. Try not to get distracted when watching potential plays.

Trading Recap 1/6/15

I didn't have time to do this yesterday but it's still good to go over trades. I won't have exact pictures since my shorts were on the Suretrader trial which ended yesterday.

URI: I was interested in the bounce at 90 so I took it above the first 2 min candle's high. It worked for a little bit but then came back down and stopped me out for a small loss. I might not take anymore reversal plays unless the setup is perfect. I have had too many quick stops trying to find bounces at certain points. My line drawn for support would have worked better as you can see here:

LBTYK: I was looking for a quick bounce on this after a washout. The big washout didn't happen but then I saw a channel form and took it when it broke the channel only for it to come back but I stopped out before my original stop was triggered since it wasn't doing what I thought.

NERV: I don't have the exact entry/exit points since I took this with Suretrader but in the beginning I was trying to short some but covered for losses. Then I reshorted and added on pops along the way down for a nice win. I might have covered it all too soon but I just stuck to my plan on covering partials on washouts/flushes.

Things to work on:
1. Only take reversals on perfect setups.

Watchlist for 1/6/15

There are many setups going into tomorrow as well but I will just list the main watches I will be looking at right at the open. The rest will be secondary.

Longs

LBTYK: Looking for morning washout on bearish close setup. It has support around 46 so I will be eyeing this for a quick bounce up. Potential wash to 45.5.

CVC: Same as above. Washout to below 19 for the quick bounce.


Shorts

NERV: Crack of premarket support is a good short or any failed momo to premarket highs. Any parabolic I might short as well. This can squeeze though so this may turn into a long with higher low setup.


Secondary List

URI: Looking for the bounce off 90. SSR will be on so looking to buy dips.

XOMA: R/g action off 3.8 is possible.

FGEN: Potential short into any parabolic/late day fade.

FOMX: Can either play long/short but I am more interested in the long. Possible r/g action or ABCD.

CMCM: R/g action w/ possible support around 16.7.

ISIS: Looking for profit taking in the morning and then higher lows/channel break to the upside.

VGGL: Possible short but not my favorite.

BCLI/NDRM/CNAT: Will keep these on watch for anything.

Trading Recap 1/5/2015

Today was a great day and a good start to 2015. There were so many plays that I was not able to catch everything off the watchlist even though some things happened exactly like I planned. It is always good to prioritize the list and focus on 2-3 setups right out of the gate and leave the rest to setup for later in the day.

I am extremely happy to be able to short stocks via Suretrader's demo account. Most of my wins today were shorts that I am unable to do with TD.

Entries are white arrows.

VGGL:  I had this on watch for a short but after seeing it continue to make higher lows I went long and soon thereafter it spiked a quick 30 cents and I sold all into the spike. At first I wanted to get a bit greedy and wait but I snapped out of that, which was good since it faded the rest of the day.

CYTK: I took this long after it made an ABCD pattern but it reversed and I got out quickly. I am glad I am taking the philosophy of "right or right out" seriously.

CNAT: I had a small win on this since I took a small position due to the increased r/r. I saw a descending triangle pattern and shorted once it broke its base. I covered around 10. There were opportunities to reshort since 10.34 kept peaking and it tested there many times. I will use under/over as a guide going forward.

IDRA: I shorted this exactly per my watchlist plan but still managed to fuck it up. I was looking for that failed momo to the 5.15 area and when I saw that happen I got short with risk to HOD. I was right but instead of covering into the washout to 5 I added more and 5 held and it went right back on me and I covered for a loss. Going forward I will only add on pops and instead cover on washes.

NDRM: My biggest winner so far. Very glad to have been able to short this. I saw the failed momo to the 15 area and started in partial short with risk to HOD. I then added when it broke its base (line in the sand to add size) and it washed out very nice and covered on washes along the way. I saw the spikes afterwards and was thinking of going in short again but decided against it.

Things to work on:

1. Cover into washouts rather than add.
2. Look for more opportunities on the chart to go in again.
3. Use over/under as guides.
4. Don't be greedy.

Watchlist for 1/5/15

Many, many setups for this week. Should be a good week to start off the new year.

Longs  

VUZI: I am interested in this above Friday's high due to Intel's investment. The magic number seems to be $5 from Intel's investment so we may get a run to that or at least 4.75 which was the 52 week highs.

AEMD: I am more long-biased on this but I will be looking at what unfolds in the morning to make a final call. The news seems to be somewhat legit since they supposedly cured an Ebola patient who was on their deathbed.

JOB: This will also be another reactive trade however I think this can squeeze shorts after the big move it made Friday. If we get past 1.87 this will rip. If there are higher lows setting up in anticipation of that 1.87 break, I will take partials along the way. 

NOAH: Making higher lows on the daily and just closed above a prior candle's high.  Any r/g action w/ possible support being at 21.75.

GPRO: Seems to have made a higher low on the daily right at the prior support. Looking at the aftermarket session, we will probably gap up so that might take the wind out of this move but otherwise look to be above the first 5 min candle's high to get in. Ideally this trades in a narrow range.

WTW: Looking to buy morning washout on an already beat up chart. However, it has major support at the 19.50 level on the daily so if it gaps down and flushes to that, that could be a nice bounce.The first higher low near a whole number may also be a nice spot for a bounce.

Shorts 

Any premarket action should be used as guides when shorting. If it can't get through premarket resistance/break of premarket support, add to short. 

VGGL: I believe the news that caused the spike on Friday is just fluff. The CES site doesn't even show that Viggle has a booth, so I don't know how important CES will be for them... With that said, I am looking ideally for a para to short into although I think this will be a case of failed follow through momentum at the prior days highs around 3.50-55. However, if higher lows setup, I might take it long for a quick trade.

BCLI: I will be extremely careful on this one. The conference is at 8:30AM so hopefully by the time the market opens the news can be digested and analyzed to see if the results are actually good or just fluff. This will determine whether or not I proceed with shorting as I believe this can possibly squeeze hard and then I would be interested in a quick long. Any parabolic action might be worth shorting into with risk on half/whole marks. We might see it test the 7.65 level from the prior day's action and if it rejects that, I would be interested in the short. Important support at 6.85. Other levels to monitor: 8 and 8.50. Also to note that this traded 24M shares with the float only being 12M so 2x the float, float rotation can enable this to go higher in addition to positive test news and shorts getting squeezed. Another NDRM perhaps?

IDRA: Recently this stock has been having big green moves followed by a red day. I am interested in this more of a failed follow through momo play. If we reject 5-5.15 area, I will look to go short.

LINE: This was a crowded trade on Friday and it really punished shorts. However, with oil going to new lows tonight and the squeeze already happening, this can be a good short. I will be trading this purely reactive out of the gate. Generally I will look to short into any weakness at the open.


Price alerts I set: ATHX (if it gets to 1.75 area may be interested for a short; seems to have just run b/c of NDRM and NRX); DDD (above base around 34); CTRL (above base around 16ish); HIMX (above base around 8.31); FSLR (above base around 46); GWPH (above today's high for continuation out of descending wedge); P (above last high at 18.70 - coming out of downtrend); ETRM (above base around 1.52); AT (around 2.85 - ABCD setup); CHGG (above base around 7.10); UNXL (above 6 would take it out of long term wedge on daily); ARRY (wedge forming -above 5 might rip); MVIS (above base around 2); CMCM (around 15.85 above base); CARA (above 10.80ish can get it going - beautiful ascending on daily); CRUS (above 24); BBRY (above 11.20); CRIS (above 1.56ish); YELP (above 55.60ish); GTI (above 5.21)

Interesting biotechs/pharma/health care: ATHX, ETRM (above 1.50), ARRY (wedge forming -above 5 might rip), AMPE, NURO, TPI, TENX, BDR, GENE, RGDO, CPRX, RPRX, LBMH, BLUE

Trading Recap 1/2/15

Only had one trade today due to not paying attention that much to the market because of the holidays. There were more plays than I thought there would be in the morning like LINE.

VGGL: After news hit the stock spiked up and so I waited for a possible short. 3.30s were the line in the sand for me and so once it broke I went short. However, the stock had higher lows and it looked like an ABCD setup, so I sized down the short and decided to go long after a break of the resistance. I went long at 3.38 and sold into the pop for a quick gain.