Trading Recap 8/27/15

Well I am back to trading even though I should have definitely traded before I went on that vacation since there was plenty of opportunity. Anyway, today I took the first trade I had taken in a while... and it was a small loss. Kind of sucks that out of all the times before vacation I would have nailed stuff but didn't trade it but now I trade something and I fuck it up. Notice in that sentence that I said I fucked it up because that is what happened. I. fucked. up. "It just didn't work" is bullshit. I had my stop as you'll see and I got scared out where had I stayed in and respected my stop I could have had a slight gain to breakeven at least. The thing is is that I would have definitely nailed it where I should have shorted it (after it peaked at resistance again and failed to b/o. But I was too scared so I waited and got a worse entry. I told myself I have to get the best entries and then I would be a success. I didn't do that today (although if I adhered to my stop and not stopped out when it tested over/under then I would have been ok). There were definitely some emotions going on but I just need to learn to say "fuck it" and do it when I know it is the right time and not wait for some "confirmation". I know that when I was looking at it and was thinking of shorting I was thinking about my risk and how it might have been too much etc etc... more thoughts going on in my head overanalyzing it and next thing you know it just flushes and I was right all along. I favorited a tweet today that said overanalyzing gets you nowhere in this game and it is true. You have to go for it and trade well. Anyway, that is my rambling before I detail the trade I took.

EXEL: I saw this gapped and no one was watching it so I thought it would be an easy fade on some meh news. I originally was going to short right near the open for failed follow through but good thing I didn't since it just ripped up afterwards. It went to the premarket highs and that was the top. I first wanted to get short around the 6.15 area since that was the resistance and it peaked to the premkt resistance before having the 6.15s become resistance again. I waited for 6 to appear to peak since that was the support and after that fell I shorted with a not so hot entry with risk on 6 over/under. What sort of spooked me out was the volume spike at 10:06 which I originally thought was a stuff and that I would be good after that but it just went up towards 6 so I thought it would climb back up so I covered for a small loss. I didn't top tick it but I was close because 6 was still the resistance and it looked like another good short pattern (the same one in the 6.15s) but I didn't short that unfortunately. It faded from there and I would have covered probably after the small base broke near the lows. Another thing to consider is that I didn't have the best confidence since I didn't really know if the news was a big deal or not (although more than likely it isn't).

Things to work on:

1. Stop overanalyzing everything.
2. Always take personal responsibility for the trades I take.
3. Adhere to the stop or else don't waste your time. If you do stop out but the trade sets up again, take it even if "your account is too small".
4. There is no such thing as confirmation. Trade when the setup and proper entry present themselves.

Trading Recap 8/12/15

Yet again no trades for me when I would have nailed them had I actually traded. Like I keep saying in my previous posts, my intuition is getting much better. I just have to press the damn button. I think I will just start with 100 shares instead of going with the usual 2-300 shares on these smaller priced stocks. While not a lot, it may give me a sense of adding into a winner and get my feet wet in order to actually make some money. I will also be focusing on fewer stocks which means I will have bigger screen real estate for the stocks that actually matter. I believe I missed a definite entry point on CERE today for me due to me not paying that much attention to it when I am looking at a bunch of other stuff at the same time. It only takes one trade to make my day and I only play 1-2 stocks a day at most anyway. I know I have missed trades in the past as well due to this. These will be my two main improvements going forward. I'll be going on vacation for the next week so if anyone actually reads this blog, don't expect any entries for the next week or two since right after coming back I have to go back to school, unfortunately....


CERE: Looking at the daily chart I saw the resistance between $4-4.5 so that is where I was looking at. I also thought that people would be too scared to short it due to AQXP and I remember any trades like this after PBMD being easy faders. So that was my thesis for the trade (in addition to the news being BS and it has had similar news in the past and it has just faded back). So, it spiked right away but then came right back. It then was peaking at premkt resistance $3.9-4. So I thought it could just continue lower from there. I was thinking of shorting $3.90ish with risk on $4 and it would have worked for a scalp to the $3.50s. It came back and it looked like it reclaimed but then what I missed (due to having this chart in a small quadrant on my screen) is the stuff move that happened which probably would have gotten me to enter the trade.

EBIO: Another runner and while there wasn't any entry for me personally while it parabolic'd, there was a clear entry after the fact when it was making lower highs and was peaking at $5. There is no excuse to have not taken trade as it was an easy $1 fade.

Things to work on:

1. Only focus on a couple of charts so that I can have better focus and allocation of screen real estate.
2. Start in small and add in to a winner.

Trading Recap 8/11/15

Still no trades for me although yesterday was definitely the day to go long. Hindsight of course though. Anyway, I am going to recap some of the trades I was thinking of taking but didn't but again wish I did. I am getting more confidence and I am starting to see things more clearly as to what is a good trade vs. bad/random trade. I just need to actually pull the trigger. The money is out there, if I take it, it's mine and if I don't I shouldn't expect sympathy.

AQXP: The only trade that would not have worked. I was thinking of going long in the morning after it flushed through support and temporarily reclaimed. But I think it will just fade off unless there is another catalyst like more shorts getting squeezed. ST didn't have borrows and I don't think CP did either so I am not sure if there are any shorts left to squeeze although I heard IB had shares. If it had perked off more it would have worked, although there would be more risk and I most likely wouldn't have traded it. After it bounced a little, it just hung around and then it dropped.

CZR: I had this on short watch since it seemed to have parabolic'd a bit on the daily and for almost no good reason. I saw it had consolidated in the AM and formed a base and when it peaked I should have went in. I think I wanted to see if this would have worked and it did so I will look to play it in the future. Although I think I would have gotten out when it double bottomed, even though it faded more afterwards.

SUNE: I was looking for some sort of a bounce (that I probably wouldn't have taken anyway since this looks like it will go to OTC eventually at this rate). I saw a base forming and thought I should short it when it broke. It would have worked but I am not sure if I would have rode it all the way down.

NVAX: The trade of the day and one I really was thinking about taking. It had ripped in the AM and when it broke out of its flag my first inclination (after saying damn I missed the flag break) is maybe it will stuff here for all the people thinking it will be another AQXP. That is exactly what happened where it consolidated at HOD and it just failed.

Things to work on:

1. Still take the fucking trade.

Trading Recap 8/7/15

I haven't placed a trade in over two weeks and what a two weeks it has been to not have taken any trades. I guess it goes to show that you must keep your losses small because if you don't, when the good trades come you may be too timid or scared to take them. Until AQXP, it was sort of whatever but this was such a huge miss and these only come once in a while. To think, today I thought it would be slow and there would be nothing. Anyway, I have to go ahead and not thing about what could have been by going long when I saw it at $3. Just have to learn from it and maybe in 5 years when I see another one I will be ready. Overall though, I am calling things and seeing things more clearly. When I went through my trade logs, I realized what was going on and the trades I taking were just stupid for the most part. I just need to trade them and I know for sure it is possible to still turn it around.


AQXP: I saw it in the AM and thought it was done after the double top and lower low on the 1min. However, I saw it just come back out of nowhere and I thought that it was weird. Didn't decide to go long, however. I had a feeling again that this would be another huge runner and that really at any point I could have gone long and make bank, but again I didn't. That might have been due to the fact that Suretrader was out of borrows so a lot of people couldn't short it and I figured Centerpoint traders are usually better and wouldn't trigger this much of a squeeze, but I wasn't sure if other brokers had it. I thought it would go to 6.5 and stop due to the gap fill on the daily chart. Had I gone long, I might have sold into the $5-5.60 parabolic but maybe not, not sure. After the fact, I noticed a wedge that I could have also gone long for a 6.5 break. The only other trade was going long for the premature EOD breakout and then shorting it. The Cowen comments helped it for sure. I think without them it could have just faded back from $6.5 but that seems to be the new play - see a nice % gainer and when everyone thinks it's done just release some BS PT and squeeze everybody.

Things to work on:

1. Take the fucking trade.

Trading Recap 8/4/15

I didn't make any trades today (although I wish I had, again) but I think I am getting much better at figuring out when to enter and what to play. I might be over-analyzing things though, because I always find a particular reason to not try a trade out. There is a probably a reason for that and it stems from my low account size, but overall, I am being much more selective (maybe too selective).

LXRX: I wanted to short this when I saw that it had tried to break the prior day's high and failed to break r/g after that. I was going to short it with risk to r/g but I saw that it could still form an ABCD and so I avoided it. However, I could have shorted it later on pops when the ABCD clearly failed. No excuse for that.

BXLT: I just kept this on watch in case anything set up and it did right in the AM. While it wasn't a perfect stuff with big volume, it got rejected on a nHOD push so at the time I thought it would be a good short but I thought it could have a higher low and go up again. My original idea was correct; I just came up with a reason to not go in. I guess this also stems from consistently losing and not having many winners, thus giving me low confidence and thinking the trade will just be another dud anyway.

WBAI: I just had this on watch in case it set up properly. I saw it had a huge spike up but then after almost forming an ABCD, it just had lower highs and it looked like it had some failed follow through. It wasn't the best looking setup so I avoided it and I saw the SSR was on so that definitely turned me away from the trade. Arrow shows where I wanted to enter.

RJET: I wanted to short this after having some failed follow through and peaking yesterday's support and then stuffing.