Today was a decently profitable day. I only had two trades - I had some other ideas that worked and some that didn't. A lot of things didn't have much volume so I didn't bother with them although they worked anyway. The changes I made regarding vwap and using higher timeframes are definitely helping. I still have to continue and implement the processes and mentality in Trading in the Zone but that is a work in progress.
BHI: I almost didn't have this on watch since I wasn't sure what to do with it but I put it on watch since it was in play and had range/volume. I saw it just tanked out of the gate which signaled to me that it was pretty weak and that this was a possible sell the news scenario. While I missed the initial flush in the morning I waited fora lower high to get in. I used the 3/5min charts to determine a good entry point and what would really be a lower high. Once it went red again I shorted. It is funny how I didn't have the best of confidence in it and was honestly thinking about taking it off or half off but I stuck with it and gave it my full out. I had my target set in mind but it looked like it made a new low on a little volume and had no immediate followthrough afterwards so I took it off for a decent gain. Unfortunately, this was a very premature cover as it kept fading for the rest of the day but honestly there isn't anything to do about that. At the time that I covered I thought that it could have been it and wanted to protect profits. I didn't cover because I was scared of giving it back - I just legitimately thought that was it for the time being. Lessons and thoughts: Good use of higher timeframe to determine lower highs. Minute tic-by-tic price movements are meaningless and big picture/thesis > minute price action as always. Don't be scared out of positions like you almost did here - it worked great.
CYH: I had this on watch in case it wanted to go lower. It stuffed later in the day and I shorted it but eventually a big bid came in and I wanted to see if it was real and it was so I took it off. Tiny loss. Not much to report here except not all stuffs are it.
Other ideas:
AKAM: Originally I was long biased in the morning but missed the dip buy for the push. Later on I thought it was setting above again for a move higher as it looked like it reclaimed the .30-.40 area. The bigger picture however was that the market was dead/weak due to news and this was up a few days in a row. I saw a nice short pattern later on but didn't want to take it although I should have. Lesson: Take the patterns that you know are high probability. Looking back even though this was an earnings winner, that shouldn't have stopped me from not taking the short because of the overall bigger picture as discussed.
ACIA: Had weak followthrough and stuffed a couple of times but no volume but was a decent scalp.
CMG: Had a very good short pattern but very low vol so decided not to take it but it worked. Also of note is the many potential fake new lows but they didn't mean anything as the stock kept going lower. Lesson/reminder: Sometimes stuff like that works and sometimes it doesn't.
GRVY: Saw the stuffs but it was tough and I kept seeing it stuff then absorb the bids so I didn't want to short but the idea I had was if it got to the afternoon highs from the day before it would be a good short and that is exactly where it topped out. That is a pattern I have noticed work very well so I will keep that in mind. I don't mind not shorting it because it honestly could have gone higher with the bids absorbing and everything else. It wasn't because I was afraid.
ESRX: Almost shorted this in the morning but it held up despite the couple of fake highs so again "fake" highs/lows don't have to mean anything.
Things to work on:
1. Continue the vwap and higher timeframe adjustments
2. Minute tic-by-tic price movements are meaningless and big picture/thesis > minute price action as always.
3. Not all stuffs end up being good shorts but that doesn't mean stop trying.
4. Fake highs and lows aren't the top/bottom all the time.
Monday, October 31, 2016
Saturday, October 29, 2016
Trading Recap 10/28/16
Friday was a frustrating day for sure with some decent losses but it really gave me the impetus to look at myself and what I am doing and what is wrong. I think I figured some things out out of pure disgust with myself and how I have been trading. A lot of it comes down to overthinking and especially overthinking about the chances of me being hired are and me trading around that instead of just trading normally. I decided to employ visualization techniques to help me with this. So for now I am visualizing that I am already hired and how I would be trading if I was hired. What I visualize will become reality. In addition, I have learned that I have been taking VWAP too literally which is another tendency of mine so I will be using it dramatically less. I haven't decided if I will completely get rid of it on my charts or just keep it there and disregard it except for certain scenarios. I also have to dramatically change the way I look at a setup and the outcome that will result from it. I can't say "yeah, it might work but it might not work either". That is 100% useless and counterproductive to trading well. Of course it might not fucking work but if there is a good chance that it will and it aligns with your system and it meets your parameters then fuck it. One last thing that will help is also utilizing the higher timeframes before. What may look "ok" on the 2min may not look so good on the 5min - this goes along with what an actual high or low will be for the stock. A lot of the time I end up shorting on the way up of a stock coming off from a low because it looks like a lower high on the lower timeframes. So these are the things going forward that I will implement. There is a quote that goes along the lines of "Humans only change when they have to". So out of pure disgust with myself I have to change. If I have another setup that I like and meets all my parameters and I don't take it then I'll be even more disgusted with myself.
Things to note for each trade:
MCK: Stocks that just keep fading from post/pre mkt into the open have a near 100% chance of just continuing to fade right out of the open. I didn't short it although I wanted to but it never really popped. Next time I will just short at the open. The trade I did make was a short against vwap. Lesson here is to not pay attention to vwap like this. It also had the inverse pattern of what I look for on the short side so it was a good long here instead. VWAP shouldn't be used to pick bottoms/tops like this. I ignored price action that said higher lows just because it went near vwap.
CRUS: I was interested in this due to the strong earnings and based on the daily it likes to gap and go all day on earnings. It didn't provide an entry until later on when it had a nice perking pattern. Before that it did for to the $55 support area which I was thinking of buying and giving it to 54.60s or 55 over/under. I was afraid that it could keep falling so that goes back to what I mentioned above. But anyway later on it had a nice pattern so I bought on the breakout which I thought could be a stuff/failed breakout. But I was more convinced with the overall picture of the trade so that is why I did it. It ended up dipping back to the support area and I didn't give it enough room so I got out. I have it to the slight higher low on the 1min which ended up being not enough room and instead it flushed out to the main support. It recollected itself and then formed another higher low which looked pretty good so I tried again and gave it to that higher low figuring if it went below that then it wouldn't work. I got it this time and it made new highs but then came off and triggered my breakeven stop. It ended up going to where my target was on the trade and topping out there. So what I could have done was realize I was buying a breakout and it might need to dip so buy a partial and then add on the dip lower with low risk on the add and then add on the higher low perhaps and move the stop to there. As for the breakeven stop getting triggered, it's tough but the breakeven stop comes from the desire to not lose money which I must get rid of. The other thing to learn from is that stocks can do anything and they can make a new high and look like it failed and wash out and then go higher afterwards.
TSLA: I had a thesis this would go lower so my plan was any lower highs to short. My plan could have been to either short pops if it peaked under premkt support or start in if it went to the resistance from the afternoon on the prior day. It didn't get exactly to that level so I may have missed the short there but it went red and it had a very good pattern. I put in an offer slightly above where it was consolidating and figured it might pop above it to scare people and then go lower. I was thinking too much and trying to get one step in front of the algos or whatever. I was also thinking this might not work when instead everything pointed to it going lower. This is what I mentioned before that I have to fix - it can't just be "oh it might work or it might not". Anyway, I shorted at vwap later on and near resistance and it worked for a bit but I wanted to be patient because I thought a bigger move to 200 was happening. That didn't happen and it just reclaimed and went higher instead. My breakeven stop got triggered here. It could have gone lower after triggering it but it didn't in this case. Anything could have happened of course but it made a fake low and then rebounded so just shorting at vwap might not have been the best thing. It definitely could have worked though.
GRVY: Just don't look at the 1/2min charts - see that it is barely above vwap and then go long thinking it will go higher because "it reclaimed vwap" when really it was just the top of a high on higher timeframes. Taking things way too literally.
Other stocks:
GNCA: Was afraid to short since it was the only thing running at the time but it just shit like the rest. Here is vwap plays a part and I was ready to short at vwap around 4 but was too afraid. That ended up being a nice top.
ACIA: Was thinking about shorting it at the highs and seeing if it continues from there. Later on I saw a big stuff and just didn't get in due to not getting the absolute best price but I should just get if it's not too late. It wouldn't have been a big deal risking where I saw it to the stuff. So lesson there is to just get in. Also, I just noticed that pattern again on ACIA before it faded even more. BE ATTENTIVE! And look at the overall picture - there were times it went a little below a consolidation level and came back and I thought that was it but it ended up being nothing. Sometimes they work and sometimes they don't.
BIDU: Had bad earnings but stock went up. Thought about shorting but BWLD didn't work so well but here it worked and it gave a nice pattern on decent volume at the top.
Things to work on:
1. New mindset
2. Disregard vwap in most cases
3. Using higher timeframes to establish highs and lows
4. No more "it might or might not work"
5. Just get in and don't play around with offers/bids
6. Stay on the lookout for patterns.
7. Just because something happened in one scenario doesn't mean it will in this one
Things to note for each trade:
MCK: Stocks that just keep fading from post/pre mkt into the open have a near 100% chance of just continuing to fade right out of the open. I didn't short it although I wanted to but it never really popped. Next time I will just short at the open. The trade I did make was a short against vwap. Lesson here is to not pay attention to vwap like this. It also had the inverse pattern of what I look for on the short side so it was a good long here instead. VWAP shouldn't be used to pick bottoms/tops like this. I ignored price action that said higher lows just because it went near vwap.
CRUS: I was interested in this due to the strong earnings and based on the daily it likes to gap and go all day on earnings. It didn't provide an entry until later on when it had a nice perking pattern. Before that it did for to the $55 support area which I was thinking of buying and giving it to 54.60s or 55 over/under. I was afraid that it could keep falling so that goes back to what I mentioned above. But anyway later on it had a nice pattern so I bought on the breakout which I thought could be a stuff/failed breakout. But I was more convinced with the overall picture of the trade so that is why I did it. It ended up dipping back to the support area and I didn't give it enough room so I got out. I have it to the slight higher low on the 1min which ended up being not enough room and instead it flushed out to the main support. It recollected itself and then formed another higher low which looked pretty good so I tried again and gave it to that higher low figuring if it went below that then it wouldn't work. I got it this time and it made new highs but then came off and triggered my breakeven stop. It ended up going to where my target was on the trade and topping out there. So what I could have done was realize I was buying a breakout and it might need to dip so buy a partial and then add on the dip lower with low risk on the add and then add on the higher low perhaps and move the stop to there. As for the breakeven stop getting triggered, it's tough but the breakeven stop comes from the desire to not lose money which I must get rid of. The other thing to learn from is that stocks can do anything and they can make a new high and look like it failed and wash out and then go higher afterwards.
TSLA: I had a thesis this would go lower so my plan was any lower highs to short. My plan could have been to either short pops if it peaked under premkt support or start in if it went to the resistance from the afternoon on the prior day. It didn't get exactly to that level so I may have missed the short there but it went red and it had a very good pattern. I put in an offer slightly above where it was consolidating and figured it might pop above it to scare people and then go lower. I was thinking too much and trying to get one step in front of the algos or whatever. I was also thinking this might not work when instead everything pointed to it going lower. This is what I mentioned before that I have to fix - it can't just be "oh it might work or it might not". Anyway, I shorted at vwap later on and near resistance and it worked for a bit but I wanted to be patient because I thought a bigger move to 200 was happening. That didn't happen and it just reclaimed and went higher instead. My breakeven stop got triggered here. It could have gone lower after triggering it but it didn't in this case. Anything could have happened of course but it made a fake low and then rebounded so just shorting at vwap might not have been the best thing. It definitely could have worked though.
GRVY: Just don't look at the 1/2min charts - see that it is barely above vwap and then go long thinking it will go higher because "it reclaimed vwap" when really it was just the top of a high on higher timeframes. Taking things way too literally.
Other stocks:
GNCA: Was afraid to short since it was the only thing running at the time but it just shit like the rest. Here is vwap plays a part and I was ready to short at vwap around 4 but was too afraid. That ended up being a nice top.
ACIA: Was thinking about shorting it at the highs and seeing if it continues from there. Later on I saw a big stuff and just didn't get in due to not getting the absolute best price but I should just get if it's not too late. It wouldn't have been a big deal risking where I saw it to the stuff. So lesson there is to just get in. Also, I just noticed that pattern again on ACIA before it faded even more. BE ATTENTIVE! And look at the overall picture - there were times it went a little below a consolidation level and came back and I thought that was it but it ended up being nothing. Sometimes they work and sometimes they don't.
BIDU: Had bad earnings but stock went up. Thought about shorting but BWLD didn't work so well but here it worked and it gave a nice pattern on decent volume at the top.
Things to work on:
1. New mindset
2. Disregard vwap in most cases
3. Using higher timeframes to establish highs and lows
4. No more "it might or might not work"
5. Just get in and don't play around with offers/bids
6. Stay on the lookout for patterns.
7. Just because something happened in one scenario doesn't mean it will in this one
Thursday, October 27, 2016
Trading Recap 10/27/16
Today was a small losing day. The main lessons learned were to wait and see about actual highs and lows are being formed and not look at the minute price action too much for things like that. Another lesson is to always be on the lookout for setups to form (I have put this in past recaps but just as another reminder).
NCR: Right idea, wrong timing. I bought it when it broke above a consolidation in the morning and was above vwap. I thought that it was a weak open scenario like HAS. I stopped out when it got below vwap and by the .30s. However, it setup again after it went green and consolidated in a tight range. I wasn't looking at it or for whatever reason I missed that and it was straight up from there. It's tough to say I did anything really wrong on the trade. I thought it looked good then after breaking out. I could sit here and say to wait for more of a pattern etc but honestly that is hindsight. The other real lesson is to keep things on watch and be more attentive to patterns. Also if I am going to give things room over/under then I have to potentially use less size.
ZTO: A bunch of trades in this - nothing really to see here. Bought in front of the huge stabilizing bid that got whacked and hit out before the 18 bid was done. Then after it fell I shorted in front of 18 when it was absorbing offer but that didn't work and I got out at 18 there. I bought the breakout consolidation and it made new highs but that was fake so got out for flat. So a bunch of small trades in it. No real lessons here to be honest. I guess I could have noticed that it was holding under vwap and might go lower but it could have done anything.
CMG: I didn't short it in the early morning when it went under vwap which was good as I figured that could be a fake. There was some resistance near it but nothing crazy. It made some new lows later but it got to vwap and I shorted it there but I stopped out early. Then it went on a stupid run so I shorted it. I was a little early but I didn't stop out which was good. I thought about adding but didn't want to get too involved. I eventually got out for flat on that trade. Then I saw a big stuff and shorted and that worked really well. I covered too early but I followed my plan. Only lesson here is as mentioned above to keep things on watch and give things enough room.
Other stocks of note:
GNC: This goes to what I was mentioning before of seeing where the real highs and lows are being made. I thought about shorting it when it got under vwap after that big run up and then the fade but that was just it making its low and then rebounding. Other than that it made the pattern that I see works 100% of the time so far and I should have paid more attention.
TSLA: I was originally long biased and almost bought the highs of the day on the breakout but didn't, fortunately. I guess a pullback at the open would have ok to buy into since I was long biased. Later on I saw it was pretty weak and thought about shorting it but chickened out unfortunately. Only lesson here I guess is to not buy obvious breakouts like that and to figure out what the best ideas are and act on them. My thinking during the session was that this was acting weird for something that was supposed to breakout. There was definitely potential for this to go lower - I wasn't fixed on the long bias. I just chickened out.
Things to remember:
1. Wait and see about actual highs and lows / other patterns being formed.
2. Stay on the lookout always for new setups/patterns.
NCR: Right idea, wrong timing. I bought it when it broke above a consolidation in the morning and was above vwap. I thought that it was a weak open scenario like HAS. I stopped out when it got below vwap and by the .30s. However, it setup again after it went green and consolidated in a tight range. I wasn't looking at it or for whatever reason I missed that and it was straight up from there. It's tough to say I did anything really wrong on the trade. I thought it looked good then after breaking out. I could sit here and say to wait for more of a pattern etc but honestly that is hindsight. The other real lesson is to keep things on watch and be more attentive to patterns. Also if I am going to give things room over/under then I have to potentially use less size.
ZTO: A bunch of trades in this - nothing really to see here. Bought in front of the huge stabilizing bid that got whacked and hit out before the 18 bid was done. Then after it fell I shorted in front of 18 when it was absorbing offer but that didn't work and I got out at 18 there. I bought the breakout consolidation and it made new highs but that was fake so got out for flat. So a bunch of small trades in it. No real lessons here to be honest. I guess I could have noticed that it was holding under vwap and might go lower but it could have done anything.
CMG: I didn't short it in the early morning when it went under vwap which was good as I figured that could be a fake. There was some resistance near it but nothing crazy. It made some new lows later but it got to vwap and I shorted it there but I stopped out early. Then it went on a stupid run so I shorted it. I was a little early but I didn't stop out which was good. I thought about adding but didn't want to get too involved. I eventually got out for flat on that trade. Then I saw a big stuff and shorted and that worked really well. I covered too early but I followed my plan. Only lesson here is as mentioned above to keep things on watch and give things enough room.
Other stocks of note:
GNC: This goes to what I was mentioning before of seeing where the real highs and lows are being made. I thought about shorting it when it got under vwap after that big run up and then the fade but that was just it making its low and then rebounding. Other than that it made the pattern that I see works 100% of the time so far and I should have paid more attention.
TSLA: I was originally long biased and almost bought the highs of the day on the breakout but didn't, fortunately. I guess a pullback at the open would have ok to buy into since I was long biased. Later on I saw it was pretty weak and thought about shorting it but chickened out unfortunately. Only lesson here I guess is to not buy obvious breakouts like that and to figure out what the best ideas are and act on them. My thinking during the session was that this was acting weird for something that was supposed to breakout. There was definitely potential for this to go lower - I wasn't fixed on the long bias. I just chickened out.
Things to remember:
1. Wait and see about actual highs and lows / other patterns being formed.
2. Stay on the lookout always for new setups/patterns.
Wednesday, October 26, 2016
Trading Recap 10/26/16
Today was a tiny green day. I did one really stupid trade that I still don't know why I did it and i did one great trade that I failed to add to/be patient on since I was just up on the day at that point and my thing going into the hiring decision has been to if I am green to just stay green no matter what. Horrible long term but for now I just want to get hired in 2 weeks then afterwards I can go back to carefree trading. So I stopped trading after piking out of CMG short and really wanted to reshort it but didn't in case it didn't work. Obviously stupid but for now it might just have to be how things go.
GRMN: This was a pretty stupid trade. I basically saw it rip at the open and then come back to vwap and then look like it was going to break out. I got long when it was over vwap and right after it just tanked to 52 so I got out. Quick loss there. I really thought they would have more follow through since the earnings were really good but I guess not for whatever reason. While the trade could have worked, I essentially ended up buying a lower high. I could have waited for an actual break instead. I also switched to the 1min instead of staying with the 2/3min for this and I saw way too much that didn't matter. There was no setup/pattern here. I'm not sure what went through my mind other than FOMO I guess of missing out on another run and wanting to get in without any setup. Usually I am pretty good with not having FOMO but I guess this was a good reminder.
CMG: I really piked this trade for the reasons mentioned above. I shorted it on a pop after it had some failed follow through. I gave it to vwap over/under. I was down $2/share but it was still under vwap so it was ok. It was good I didn't take it off then. It came back towards the low and for whatever reason I thought it would just bottom there again so I got out right before it made new lows. I saw a lot of good patterns in it that I could have taken but just didn't due to what I mentioned above. Overall the trade I actually did take was good overall. I just covered way too soon and never reshorted.
Other ideas:
AKAM off the flag at vwap and the vwap bounce
Things to work on:
1. No FOMO
GRMN: This was a pretty stupid trade. I basically saw it rip at the open and then come back to vwap and then look like it was going to break out. I got long when it was over vwap and right after it just tanked to 52 so I got out. Quick loss there. I really thought they would have more follow through since the earnings were really good but I guess not for whatever reason. While the trade could have worked, I essentially ended up buying a lower high. I could have waited for an actual break instead. I also switched to the 1min instead of staying with the 2/3min for this and I saw way too much that didn't matter. There was no setup/pattern here. I'm not sure what went through my mind other than FOMO I guess of missing out on another run and wanting to get in without any setup. Usually I am pretty good with not having FOMO but I guess this was a good reminder.
CMG: I really piked this trade for the reasons mentioned above. I shorted it on a pop after it had some failed follow through. I gave it to vwap over/under. I was down $2/share but it was still under vwap so it was ok. It was good I didn't take it off then. It came back towards the low and for whatever reason I thought it would just bottom there again so I got out right before it made new lows. I saw a lot of good patterns in it that I could have taken but just didn't due to what I mentioned above. Overall the trade I actually did take was good overall. I just covered way too soon and never reshorted.
Other ideas:
AKAM off the flag at vwap and the vwap bounce
Things to work on:
1. No FOMO
Tuesday, October 25, 2016
Trading Recap 10/25/16
Today I had a decent green day. I did have a lot of ideas that would have worked that I never took advantage of (and some losers too to be fair) but overall I had a decent read on a lot of the stuff today.
SAEX: This was my main gainer today. I originally put an offer at vwap after it stuffed since it seemed to have fit the criteria of what I mentioned in last night's post about a stock going under vwap and stuffing and then pops to vwap work. I took it off because I thought it didn't seem right though as it got closer to my offer. This was a good choice. I shorted it after it got under vwap and stuffed hard and stopped people out and covered when it made new lows in the 9.80s. I had no expectation that it would fade all day like it did. Looking at the prior daily candles it does close at the lows so it could have been an all day thing I guess but I thought it would at least consolidate then go lower again instead of just straight fade. Profit is profit I guess and I'm not sure if I would have shorted it again since it made a new low and then came back. Goes to show again: thesis > minute price action although I didn't have the thesis that it would fade this much as I couldn't tell there was any dilution going on. I should say instead big picture > minute price action. I also saw this on a other names today where they looked like they reclaimed vwap but then continued faded afterwards so it all really depends. I have to keep an open mind as to what is possible and what the stock will do before it does what I want or stops me out. Going back to almost shorting at vwap before the stuff, I am trying to see if there are any parameters that I can see that would aid in knowing when to short it at vwap and when not to. This was a tricky one. Perhaps the best one can do is just not stop out right away although it went $1 past vwap before coming off. So it's tough and each stock does it's own thing. We just have to react to it. I'm not sure if there is anything else to say other than to add instead of cover in situations like that.
EYES: I shorted this at vwap and it went higher so I added on the stuff which was good. I covered the add though on a pop above vwap which was stupid but I wanted to be safe. It came back to the lows and I waited for it to break down and it never did. It looked like it was going to so I added in bigger size to scalp the move to new lows but the bid absorbed so I got out on the added size then just covered when it went above vwap near the top unfortunately. Only lesson here was that it was good to add instead of cover but I should have been more thoughtful with covering on the pop beforehand. I didn't want to have the added size and it ends up going slightly higher though.
Other ideas of note:
UA: It looked a little like an ABCD in the morning above vwap but I think I was putting too much thought into it. It could have worked of course but I never got in there. My overall thesis was that it was way oversold for what the earnings were. I did see it put a higher low after some selling and I did think about buying there but never did. That would have worked well for a sell back to resistance. I had a feeling they washed the bounce players out.
GBT: I had a pretty good read on this and should have went in since I figured they were using this news to sell into based on SEC filings and the news wasn't that good anyway. It did trick me though because it went a bit higher first before coming back off. It had a really nice pattern at the highs that I wanted to short into but unfortunately never did. So the lesson here is that things can pop in situations like this (and SAEX) before fading. Also, I did see the huge volume stuff later in the day and saw someone got filled on huge size. I thought about shorting there but was afraid of it just ripping to vwap. I guess you have to trade what you see and that's it and not worry about what ifs.
DPRX: I saw it go parabolic and it halted. The halt is usually the top and it was here but I didn't short it. It had a similar pattern to HMNY when it halted. It came back again after flushing and I didn't bother there either. Lesson: Halts like this are usually the top.
HMNY: I saw it had a PR release and they just had their effect/prospectus out. I knew what was happening but the borrow was so expensive again. Unfortunately I didn't do it because of that and also I wasn't sure how low it would go. Well it definitely would have been worth it to do as it faded $2+ from the move. Lesson: Don't worry about the borrow fee and secondly short these great opportunities even when they come during the day like this one did.
Things to work on:
1. Look at prior daily candles to see how stock acts on gap up and fade days.
2. Big picture > minute price action. VWAP over/under stuff shouldn't affect a stock and a stock looking like it is reclaiming support like SAEX may just be bouncing for a lower high - it depends.
3. Add instead of covering in situations like SAEX and EYES.
4. On stocks like GBT that you think can fade right away, don't be afraid to short if they do pop a bit first.
5. Borrow fee = cost of doing business
6. Stocks that have PR like this during the day and not premkt are still good shorts when combined with an effect. (even when not combined with an effect)
7. Halts in certain situations are usually the top.
SAEX: This was my main gainer today. I originally put an offer at vwap after it stuffed since it seemed to have fit the criteria of what I mentioned in last night's post about a stock going under vwap and stuffing and then pops to vwap work. I took it off because I thought it didn't seem right though as it got closer to my offer. This was a good choice. I shorted it after it got under vwap and stuffed hard and stopped people out and covered when it made new lows in the 9.80s. I had no expectation that it would fade all day like it did. Looking at the prior daily candles it does close at the lows so it could have been an all day thing I guess but I thought it would at least consolidate then go lower again instead of just straight fade. Profit is profit I guess and I'm not sure if I would have shorted it again since it made a new low and then came back. Goes to show again: thesis > minute price action although I didn't have the thesis that it would fade this much as I couldn't tell there was any dilution going on. I should say instead big picture > minute price action. I also saw this on a other names today where they looked like they reclaimed vwap but then continued faded afterwards so it all really depends. I have to keep an open mind as to what is possible and what the stock will do before it does what I want or stops me out. Going back to almost shorting at vwap before the stuff, I am trying to see if there are any parameters that I can see that would aid in knowing when to short it at vwap and when not to. This was a tricky one. Perhaps the best one can do is just not stop out right away although it went $1 past vwap before coming off. So it's tough and each stock does it's own thing. We just have to react to it. I'm not sure if there is anything else to say other than to add instead of cover in situations like that.
EYES: I shorted this at vwap and it went higher so I added on the stuff which was good. I covered the add though on a pop above vwap which was stupid but I wanted to be safe. It came back to the lows and I waited for it to break down and it never did. It looked like it was going to so I added in bigger size to scalp the move to new lows but the bid absorbed so I got out on the added size then just covered when it went above vwap near the top unfortunately. Only lesson here was that it was good to add instead of cover but I should have been more thoughtful with covering on the pop beforehand. I didn't want to have the added size and it ends up going slightly higher though.
Other ideas of note:
UA: It looked a little like an ABCD in the morning above vwap but I think I was putting too much thought into it. It could have worked of course but I never got in there. My overall thesis was that it was way oversold for what the earnings were. I did see it put a higher low after some selling and I did think about buying there but never did. That would have worked well for a sell back to resistance. I had a feeling they washed the bounce players out.
GBT: I had a pretty good read on this and should have went in since I figured they were using this news to sell into based on SEC filings and the news wasn't that good anyway. It did trick me though because it went a bit higher first before coming back off. It had a really nice pattern at the highs that I wanted to short into but unfortunately never did. So the lesson here is that things can pop in situations like this (and SAEX) before fading. Also, I did see the huge volume stuff later in the day and saw someone got filled on huge size. I thought about shorting there but was afraid of it just ripping to vwap. I guess you have to trade what you see and that's it and not worry about what ifs.
DPRX: I saw it go parabolic and it halted. The halt is usually the top and it was here but I didn't short it. It had a similar pattern to HMNY when it halted. It came back again after flushing and I didn't bother there either. Lesson: Halts like this are usually the top.
HMNY: I saw it had a PR release and they just had their effect/prospectus out. I knew what was happening but the borrow was so expensive again. Unfortunately I didn't do it because of that and also I wasn't sure how low it would go. Well it definitely would have been worth it to do as it faded $2+ from the move. Lesson: Don't worry about the borrow fee and secondly short these great opportunities even when they come during the day like this one did.
Things to work on:
1. Look at prior daily candles to see how stock acts on gap up and fade days.
2. Big picture > minute price action. VWAP over/under stuff shouldn't affect a stock and a stock looking like it is reclaiming support like SAEX may just be bouncing for a lower high - it depends.
3. Add instead of covering in situations like SAEX and EYES.
4. On stocks like GBT that you think can fade right away, don't be afraid to short if they do pop a bit first.
5. Borrow fee = cost of doing business
6. Stocks that have PR like this during the day and not premkt are still good shorts when combined with an effect. (even when not combined with an effect)
7. Halts in certain situations are usually the top.
Monday, October 24, 2016
Trading Recap 10/24/16
Today was another losing day but I was able to figure some things out with my trading system and when certain setups are best entered and when I should wait for a better setup.
KOOL: I did some stupid shorts in this in the morning that were basically off of what I thought was bigger volume but I should have waited. What I learned was stocks that are under vwap right away are definitely shorts on pops to vwap vs. stocks that stay over vwap and start going up. Then at that point you either long or you wait for actual, clearly, bigger than usual volume. A good short was on the double top fakeout with big volume later on at 4.60. That is where the edge is and where I should have shorted. I did think about shorting it then but I didn't want to re-risk 20cents again on the trade but that is bad line of thinking - each trade should be made independently. It is because I was tried of trying it before that I missed this easy opportunity. I tried it again later on due to a pattern I saw and I gave it too little room and got stopped out at the top when it did exactly what I thought it would. I tried being cute with the stop but that didn't work, of course. Sometimes it does, sometimes it doesn't but overall just don't do it.
ALKS: I tried shorting this on the vwap retest but it didn't work. I looked into why some of these work and why some don't and essentially the ones that do work are because they are peaking the prior day's support and then fade off while the ones that don't work have no resistance to get rejected from. So that was a good lesson there. I tried it again later on a good pattern and it did flush but it just flushed under vwap on volume and then reclaimed. Broke even on that. I thought about covering on that flush but as mentioned before - sometimes those blips work and sometimes they don't.
TWLO: Basically I saw it flush and make a new low by a few pennies and then reclaim support. I went long there and I thought it could have went but right when it looked like it was going higher it stuffed right back down hard so I got out for a small loss after that. Nothing else to say, it was worth a shot.
Things to work on:
1. Stop picking the top on these names like KOOL. Look for what I mentioned about the vwap above.
2. Make each trade independent of one another.
3. The shorts under vwap trade like ALKS only work in certain conditions.
KOOL: I did some stupid shorts in this in the morning that were basically off of what I thought was bigger volume but I should have waited. What I learned was stocks that are under vwap right away are definitely shorts on pops to vwap vs. stocks that stay over vwap and start going up. Then at that point you either long or you wait for actual, clearly, bigger than usual volume. A good short was on the double top fakeout with big volume later on at 4.60. That is where the edge is and where I should have shorted. I did think about shorting it then but I didn't want to re-risk 20cents again on the trade but that is bad line of thinking - each trade should be made independently. It is because I was tried of trying it before that I missed this easy opportunity. I tried it again later on due to a pattern I saw and I gave it too little room and got stopped out at the top when it did exactly what I thought it would. I tried being cute with the stop but that didn't work, of course. Sometimes it does, sometimes it doesn't but overall just don't do it.
ALKS: I tried shorting this on the vwap retest but it didn't work. I looked into why some of these work and why some don't and essentially the ones that do work are because they are peaking the prior day's support and then fade off while the ones that don't work have no resistance to get rejected from. So that was a good lesson there. I tried it again later on a good pattern and it did flush but it just flushed under vwap on volume and then reclaimed. Broke even on that. I thought about covering on that flush but as mentioned before - sometimes those blips work and sometimes they don't.
TWLO: Basically I saw it flush and make a new low by a few pennies and then reclaim support. I went long there and I thought it could have went but right when it looked like it was going higher it stuffed right back down hard so I got out for a small loss after that. Nothing else to say, it was worth a shot.
Things to work on:
1. Stop picking the top on these names like KOOL. Look for what I mentioned about the vwap above.
2. Make each trade independent of one another.
3. The shorts under vwap trade like ALKS only work in certain conditions.
Saturday, October 22, 2016
Trading Recap 10/21/16
Friday was a positive day that had one winner and one loser. I had a bunch of ideas that I didn't take that worked out great. I was able to notice some things in real time but I did not capitalize on them. A lot of it had to do with the what ifs but on some of the bigger range stocks like HMNY I at least entertained going in with smaller size just to get in when I thought there was a good trade.
ALKS: This was sort of a stupid trade. It could have worked but there's a few things to note here. I shorted after it came off and then put an offer to short at vwap. The stock looked like it had failed follow through but at the same time these stocks usually chop around. While where I entered could have been a top to at least scalp from, I should have been more comfortable with the range of the stock. So I shorted against vwap but then it sprayed through to 57.40s and I was ok with it letting it test vwap over/under. Once it sprayed like that and looked like it stuffed, I put my stop above there thinking if it got above there then it would probably go higher. Unfortunately it sprayed past that and then came off. So while I stopped out for a loss, had I stayed in it would have been a flat trade for me I think because I would have put my stop at breakeven when it started to fade and when it went to vwap again and broke out I would have been out and that was it. So instead of taking a loss I would have been flat. The stock has $20 of range so I need to be ok with at least 10% of that or $2. Being ok with $2 of range on this type of play though isn't worth it. There was an opportunity that I saw before I actually shorted though - when it stuffed and then came back under vwap. That was a good pattern and I definitely did think about it then but I thought that overall it didn't mean much and that the stock could just chop around. So that line of thinking was a mistake there. Also, I should have looked at the longer term chart more to see the support around $54.50-$55. I don't know if I would have went long there but it was a good spot to cover once that area started to hold. Overall I'm not too worried that I didn't short it when it was first peaking vwap after that big volume bar because looking back had I shorted and it didn't work I would have been more pissed than I would be disappointed that I didn't short it and it worked. I can't predict everything nor should I.
CXRX: I saw this grinding higher and looked at the daily chart and saw that it was pretty beaten down and could have a bounce day so I wasn't too interested in shorting it unless it got parabolic for a scalp. But a lot of volume started coming in and it looked like it started topping out in the 5.45-5.50 range. I thought I could scalp this for a move back down so I shorted at 5.44 and gave it over/under the highs. I was well aware this could have kept going but I thought it was worth a shot and it seemed like people were waiting for a power move that never really came to short. It broke out to 5.55 but I didn't panic and I let it test around and in this case it just completely stuffed and that was it. I wanted to be smart with my covers since like I said the daily chart supported that it could go higher for another day or so so when I saw it holding in the 5.10 area I just covered there - I didn't want another DRWI situation although I shouldn't expect that of everything since that was just a fluke. It did end up going lower but it was ok. I am thinking if I should have added after the stuff confirmation and risk to that high. It worked here for sure but it wasn't the best type of play overall I think for that. Maybe once it stuffed on that red candle lower and started peaking a lower level, that would have been more confirmation and a chance to get in with size and give that to the mid 40s. I'll consider adding more on those red stuff candles.
Other ideas of note:
HMNY: I saw HMNY consolidating after the big move up. It looked very good for a move higher but I thought that since no one could short it, it would squeeze higher so I guess buyers/pumpers would have to get it there. So I wasn't too confident in it at that point since I thought that the move had happened and that it would just consolidate or maybe move lower at that point. Perhaps it was worth a shot when volume started coming in and it started breaking out a little bit. It did look like SAEX and BSPM from what I remember on day 1 when it made a huge move and then consolidated and had the exact same look and then went higher. BSPM more recently was a stock that not many could short so when stocks like this are not squeezing - they are getting pumped so if we can short it then it's an advantage if it sets up. So the next time a stock does something like that I'll be prepared and give it a shot. I will admit that I was afraid of that what if scenario of what if it dumps but I can't have any of that going on - I have to be fixed on the present and that is it. So it pushed to 10 and had some volume which could have been a stuff but it held a little bit and then went higher. So that is another reason to not trust the big volume right away like that but in this case after it had just broken out of a consolidation pattern like this - unless it was huge volume like it had when it went to 10.50 then it shouldn't be trusted as it being the top. Later on though I did correctly call out the top but again was too afraid to do anything in case I was wrong. I was thinking of getting in with small size but the borrow rate was expensive so I didn't want to bother - stupid thinking because it is just the cost of doing business!! Anyway, what I saw at the 12.80-13 level was good evidence of peaking action. When it unhalted it made a new high by one penny on some volume so that was red flag #1. Secondly, when it came off and then rebounded to the 12.80 level I was watching the level 2 and it could not get past that 12.80. Then 12.80 stepped away and the offer went to 12.85 and then came right back to 12.80 and I thought a stock that just ripped multiple points is now having difficulty going up 5-10 cents. So that was the top. After that it provided a lot of reshorts on stuffs as it eventually formed lower highs and then broke vwap. The first stuff wasn't too easy and I didn't want to short it in case because it looked like it reclaimed.
TWLO: I had the idea to buy dips as long as $40 held similar to the way PBYI did. I had a couple ideas to go long at vwap and give it a little room which would have worked but overall it was pretty choppy. I had the idea to go long on the dip and rip which would have worked but meh.
PRGO: I knew this was a rehash news events so I was looking to short it and it could not get above the $91 level at a certain point so I was thinking of shorting it there. Again I was afraid of what would happen if I was wrong but it worked great. I think I need to realize with reading the tape and level 2 action and such - it's not going to be 100% so just because it doesn't work one time, that doesn't mean it won't work in another scenario.
BTI: The only lesson for this is to keep things with low vol in premkt on watch during market hours because just because it has low vol during premkt doesn't mean it won't have good vol during the market. I was looking to short this on pops since short the acquirer usually works and it definitely did in this case.
NFLX: The only thing to note here is that I wanted to short it in the morning for a pullback. It offered some scalps but other than that it didn't really trend and after the news hit it kept going. The main point I wanted to make is that I thought about shorting it a couple of times when it kept pushing and failing in the high 125s. I didn't like it overall except for that fact so I avoided - the main thing is just because a stock gets rejected a couple of times doesn't mean it is the top.
DRWI: This was a scenario where it making a few cent high and no followthrough mattered. This had a huge volume candle and then to make sure all shorts were out it made a new high and that was it. I was monitoring this stock but it never really setup until that failed followthrough high but even then I wasn't completely sure.
Things to work on:
1. Be ok with bigger range and at least 10% of the range on this ranging stocks.
2. You can't predict everything, nor should you.
3. Look into adding some shares when a stock has the red candle stuff on volume. Those are usually tops.
4. Even when a stock is HTB for most people, when a stock consolidated in a familiar pattern like BSPM and SAEX did, then you should go long for another move higher.
5. NO WHAT IF'S NO MATTER WHAT - FOCUS ON THE PRESENT!
6.. Don't make the excuse of high borrow rate for not shorting - it is the cost of doing business!
7. When a stock is HTB at most placed and people can't short and looks like the move is done, definitely short it because it is just a pump and not a squeeze. They always go back down.
8. Sometimes reading the tape works and sometimes it doesn't but that doesn't mean you should avoid not doing it. You can use educated risk to try levels and have tight stops to see if levels on the tape hold.
9. Keep stocks on watch that may not have premkt vol but have potentials to be good plays during mkt hours.
10. Just because a stock makes a new high and doesn't have immediate followthrough doesn't always mean that is the top - it depends on the situation.
ALKS: This was sort of a stupid trade. It could have worked but there's a few things to note here. I shorted after it came off and then put an offer to short at vwap. The stock looked like it had failed follow through but at the same time these stocks usually chop around. While where I entered could have been a top to at least scalp from, I should have been more comfortable with the range of the stock. So I shorted against vwap but then it sprayed through to 57.40s and I was ok with it letting it test vwap over/under. Once it sprayed like that and looked like it stuffed, I put my stop above there thinking if it got above there then it would probably go higher. Unfortunately it sprayed past that and then came off. So while I stopped out for a loss, had I stayed in it would have been a flat trade for me I think because I would have put my stop at breakeven when it started to fade and when it went to vwap again and broke out I would have been out and that was it. So instead of taking a loss I would have been flat. The stock has $20 of range so I need to be ok with at least 10% of that or $2. Being ok with $2 of range on this type of play though isn't worth it. There was an opportunity that I saw before I actually shorted though - when it stuffed and then came back under vwap. That was a good pattern and I definitely did think about it then but I thought that overall it didn't mean much and that the stock could just chop around. So that line of thinking was a mistake there. Also, I should have looked at the longer term chart more to see the support around $54.50-$55. I don't know if I would have went long there but it was a good spot to cover once that area started to hold. Overall I'm not too worried that I didn't short it when it was first peaking vwap after that big volume bar because looking back had I shorted and it didn't work I would have been more pissed than I would be disappointed that I didn't short it and it worked. I can't predict everything nor should I.
CXRX: I saw this grinding higher and looked at the daily chart and saw that it was pretty beaten down and could have a bounce day so I wasn't too interested in shorting it unless it got parabolic for a scalp. But a lot of volume started coming in and it looked like it started topping out in the 5.45-5.50 range. I thought I could scalp this for a move back down so I shorted at 5.44 and gave it over/under the highs. I was well aware this could have kept going but I thought it was worth a shot and it seemed like people were waiting for a power move that never really came to short. It broke out to 5.55 but I didn't panic and I let it test around and in this case it just completely stuffed and that was it. I wanted to be smart with my covers since like I said the daily chart supported that it could go higher for another day or so so when I saw it holding in the 5.10 area I just covered there - I didn't want another DRWI situation although I shouldn't expect that of everything since that was just a fluke. It did end up going lower but it was ok. I am thinking if I should have added after the stuff confirmation and risk to that high. It worked here for sure but it wasn't the best type of play overall I think for that. Maybe once it stuffed on that red candle lower and started peaking a lower level, that would have been more confirmation and a chance to get in with size and give that to the mid 40s. I'll consider adding more on those red stuff candles.
Other ideas of note:
HMNY: I saw HMNY consolidating after the big move up. It looked very good for a move higher but I thought that since no one could short it, it would squeeze higher so I guess buyers/pumpers would have to get it there. So I wasn't too confident in it at that point since I thought that the move had happened and that it would just consolidate or maybe move lower at that point. Perhaps it was worth a shot when volume started coming in and it started breaking out a little bit. It did look like SAEX and BSPM from what I remember on day 1 when it made a huge move and then consolidated and had the exact same look and then went higher. BSPM more recently was a stock that not many could short so when stocks like this are not squeezing - they are getting pumped so if we can short it then it's an advantage if it sets up. So the next time a stock does something like that I'll be prepared and give it a shot. I will admit that I was afraid of that what if scenario of what if it dumps but I can't have any of that going on - I have to be fixed on the present and that is it. So it pushed to 10 and had some volume which could have been a stuff but it held a little bit and then went higher. So that is another reason to not trust the big volume right away like that but in this case after it had just broken out of a consolidation pattern like this - unless it was huge volume like it had when it went to 10.50 then it shouldn't be trusted as it being the top. Later on though I did correctly call out the top but again was too afraid to do anything in case I was wrong. I was thinking of getting in with small size but the borrow rate was expensive so I didn't want to bother - stupid thinking because it is just the cost of doing business!! Anyway, what I saw at the 12.80-13 level was good evidence of peaking action. When it unhalted it made a new high by one penny on some volume so that was red flag #1. Secondly, when it came off and then rebounded to the 12.80 level I was watching the level 2 and it could not get past that 12.80. Then 12.80 stepped away and the offer went to 12.85 and then came right back to 12.80 and I thought a stock that just ripped multiple points is now having difficulty going up 5-10 cents. So that was the top. After that it provided a lot of reshorts on stuffs as it eventually formed lower highs and then broke vwap. The first stuff wasn't too easy and I didn't want to short it in case because it looked like it reclaimed.
TWLO: I had the idea to buy dips as long as $40 held similar to the way PBYI did. I had a couple ideas to go long at vwap and give it a little room which would have worked but overall it was pretty choppy. I had the idea to go long on the dip and rip which would have worked but meh.
PRGO: I knew this was a rehash news events so I was looking to short it and it could not get above the $91 level at a certain point so I was thinking of shorting it there. Again I was afraid of what would happen if I was wrong but it worked great. I think I need to realize with reading the tape and level 2 action and such - it's not going to be 100% so just because it doesn't work one time, that doesn't mean it won't work in another scenario.
BTI: The only lesson for this is to keep things with low vol in premkt on watch during market hours because just because it has low vol during premkt doesn't mean it won't have good vol during the market. I was looking to short this on pops since short the acquirer usually works and it definitely did in this case.
NFLX: The only thing to note here is that I wanted to short it in the morning for a pullback. It offered some scalps but other than that it didn't really trend and after the news hit it kept going. The main point I wanted to make is that I thought about shorting it a couple of times when it kept pushing and failing in the high 125s. I didn't like it overall except for that fact so I avoided - the main thing is just because a stock gets rejected a couple of times doesn't mean it is the top.
DRWI: This was a scenario where it making a few cent high and no followthrough mattered. This had a huge volume candle and then to make sure all shorts were out it made a new high and that was it. I was monitoring this stock but it never really setup until that failed followthrough high but even then I wasn't completely sure.
Things to work on:
1. Be ok with bigger range and at least 10% of the range on this ranging stocks.
2. You can't predict everything, nor should you.
3. Look into adding some shares when a stock has the red candle stuff on volume. Those are usually tops.
4. Even when a stock is HTB for most people, when a stock consolidated in a familiar pattern like BSPM and SAEX did, then you should go long for another move higher.
5. NO WHAT IF'S NO MATTER WHAT - FOCUS ON THE PRESENT!
6.. Don't make the excuse of high borrow rate for not shorting - it is the cost of doing business!
7. When a stock is HTB at most placed and people can't short and looks like the move is done, definitely short it because it is just a pump and not a squeeze. They always go back down.
8. Sometimes reading the tape works and sometimes it doesn't but that doesn't mean you should avoid not doing it. You can use educated risk to try levels and have tight stops to see if levels on the tape hold.
9. Keep stocks on watch that may not have premkt vol but have potentials to be good plays during mkt hours.
10. Just because a stock makes a new high and doesn't have immediate followthrough doesn't always mean that is the top - it depends on the situation.
Thursday, October 20, 2016
Trading Recap 10/20/16
Unfortunately I gave back yesterday's gains today although there wasn't much to say about the process - overall it was ok, just didn't have any luck with some fills. Not a big deal and it could have been a lot worse with DRWI.
SCYX: I saw the upgrade and figured it was BS. I shorted this near vwap when it had a good pattern of just fading off the bat. I was looking for more but covered once there was little volume for a small gain. That's pretty much it.
BANC: I was interested in this if it came under and peaked 13.80s since that was the level from yesterday. I figured the upgrade today was an event to provide liquidity for people to exit and figured there was some actual issues with the stock. I wans't sure though if the stock had to squeeze higher in case there were enough trapped shorts. With it coming under 13.80 I figured that would be a good sign that it could go lower. So I put an offer at 13.80 once it faded and I got filled. My risk was .80s over/under. In the end it didn't work and I took it off when it cleared vwap for a small loss. I thought about shorting it again when it looked to have failed followthrough on the breakout but decided against it. While I saw something, it could have just been nothing honestly. The news came out later which caused it to fade so overall my timing seemed to be off I guess. Nothing really to say here - don't mind taking the small loss. I could say I predicted that it would peak at .80s instead of reacting but that's a tough sell to me. Like yesterday on MMYT I "predicted" it would peak at vwap and I put an order there and it worked. So overall it was worth a shot.
DRWI: I missed the morning move but saw it consolidating under vwap and it looked like it tried to pop out of its range and failed so I got in. It wasn't the best entry but that was just in case it failed from where I saw it. It did some games and eventually faded. I had bids in but they never got filled and then I moved them up and never got filled either. Then it went back to my price but I figured it would just go to vwap and fail again so that is why I didn't put a breakeven stop because I figured I would be covering at the top. But then it got above vwap and then started pushing and I thought this is really abnormal so I took it off which was good and bad - bad that my winner was now a loser but good in that I avoided taking a bigger hit and avoided adding. So I tried to sort of pick a top later on since I saw some familiar level 2 games but that didn't work and then I went long. It wasn't the best long price but at that time I figured that shorts were screwed and that with the float being rotated it could rip. It worked but then looked like it stuffed so I put a breakeven stop since at this point it looked like it could have gone either way. Lesson here is that despite it stuffing it still went higher so again - stuffs aren't always the end all be all - overall thesis > minute price action. But overall I wasn't too confident in it so while it sucks I stopped out for flat when it worked, it's ok. Later on I shorted it when I thought it could have EOD fade but the pattern I saw wasn't really what I thought it was after I entered it but I had small size so I let it test around. It looked like it was going to go higher and I didn't like the price action but I let it test and put my stop and it ended up fading to vwap. I had a bid under vwap since I thought that was possible but it didn't so I got out for flat. I could say the lesson here is to just cover when it comes close but it really depends on the situation. Other than that just don't pick the top and giving things enough room prevented me from taking a loss on the last short and instead gave me a flat trade instead.
Other mentions:
PBYI: I tried getting filled on the 42 breakout but was being cute again with the trying to get filled on the bid when I could have taken the offer 5 cents higher. Stupid but I guess I didn't have much confidence in it although it worked great. At least I tried to get long on the flag breakout/familiar pattern.
Things to remember/work on:
1. Give things enough room.
2. If you want to get into something then just take the liquidity.
3. Thesis > minute price action. Don't pick tops/bottoms.
4. No what if.
SCYX: I saw the upgrade and figured it was BS. I shorted this near vwap when it had a good pattern of just fading off the bat. I was looking for more but covered once there was little volume for a small gain. That's pretty much it.
BANC: I was interested in this if it came under and peaked 13.80s since that was the level from yesterday. I figured the upgrade today was an event to provide liquidity for people to exit and figured there was some actual issues with the stock. I wans't sure though if the stock had to squeeze higher in case there were enough trapped shorts. With it coming under 13.80 I figured that would be a good sign that it could go lower. So I put an offer at 13.80 once it faded and I got filled. My risk was .80s over/under. In the end it didn't work and I took it off when it cleared vwap for a small loss. I thought about shorting it again when it looked to have failed followthrough on the breakout but decided against it. While I saw something, it could have just been nothing honestly. The news came out later which caused it to fade so overall my timing seemed to be off I guess. Nothing really to say here - don't mind taking the small loss. I could say I predicted that it would peak at .80s instead of reacting but that's a tough sell to me. Like yesterday on MMYT I "predicted" it would peak at vwap and I put an order there and it worked. So overall it was worth a shot.
DRWI: I missed the morning move but saw it consolidating under vwap and it looked like it tried to pop out of its range and failed so I got in. It wasn't the best entry but that was just in case it failed from where I saw it. It did some games and eventually faded. I had bids in but they never got filled and then I moved them up and never got filled either. Then it went back to my price but I figured it would just go to vwap and fail again so that is why I didn't put a breakeven stop because I figured I would be covering at the top. But then it got above vwap and then started pushing and I thought this is really abnormal so I took it off which was good and bad - bad that my winner was now a loser but good in that I avoided taking a bigger hit and avoided adding. So I tried to sort of pick a top later on since I saw some familiar level 2 games but that didn't work and then I went long. It wasn't the best long price but at that time I figured that shorts were screwed and that with the float being rotated it could rip. It worked but then looked like it stuffed so I put a breakeven stop since at this point it looked like it could have gone either way. Lesson here is that despite it stuffing it still went higher so again - stuffs aren't always the end all be all - overall thesis > minute price action. But overall I wasn't too confident in it so while it sucks I stopped out for flat when it worked, it's ok. Later on I shorted it when I thought it could have EOD fade but the pattern I saw wasn't really what I thought it was after I entered it but I had small size so I let it test around. It looked like it was going to go higher and I didn't like the price action but I let it test and put my stop and it ended up fading to vwap. I had a bid under vwap since I thought that was possible but it didn't so I got out for flat. I could say the lesson here is to just cover when it comes close but it really depends on the situation. Other than that just don't pick the top and giving things enough room prevented me from taking a loss on the last short and instead gave me a flat trade instead.
Other mentions:
PBYI: I tried getting filled on the 42 breakout but was being cute again with the trying to get filled on the bid when I could have taken the offer 5 cents higher. Stupid but I guess I didn't have much confidence in it although it worked great. At least I tried to get long on the flag breakout/familiar pattern.
Things to remember/work on:
1. Give things enough room.
2. If you want to get into something then just take the liquidity.
3. Thesis > minute price action. Don't pick tops/bottoms.
4. No what if.
Wednesday, October 19, 2016
Trading Recap 10/19/16
Today was a decent day and I made back yesterday's losses so I am just on a low and steady grind back to where I was last week. All tickers were positive today and while I could have made a lot more as usual, it's all hindsight and I do the best with what I can.
MMYT: I didn't think the news was worth the huge move and with the way it sold off and had failed follow through today I thought pops to vwap were good. I shorted at vwap and top ticked it and was never down on the position pretty much. I probably should have done more shares since it wasn't a lot to risk but the volume wasn't the best and there was a decent amount of range. I ended up covering at low 28s because I didn't want it to just volume spike on me. It did end up going lower but overall it was a good trade. I didn't want to add anywhere due to the low volume but it's ok. I got a decent move out of it. I could say to be more patient but that's just hindsight. In addition I wanted to start clawing back the losses from before - while that isn't the way you "should" trade I just needed some confidence boosters.
CERU: I had the right read on this but missed the earlier shorts. I saw it having a good pattern around vwap so I shorted there with risk to vwap. I was patient with it and I had a bid at .94 which almost got filled on the initial move downward but then it came back and I thought it reclaimed .97s with a higher low so I got out at .98 but it eventually went lower. It offered nice reshorts later in the day. Only lesson here is to catch the morning moves - it offered a good opportunity on the retest around 1.12 before it washed to sub $1. Another lesson is things may not get to vwap or whatever entry exactly so the best thing is to just place your order at a good spot and you shouldn't be in a size where pennies matter to you. You will stress yourself out. And again the overall thesis and bigger picture calls for a fade so you can be patient with it more. Again, I know you wanted to take profits so it's ok for now.
TSLA: I shorted this when I saw some volume in the 205s thinking there was some buyer exhaustion. I thought it could make a new high and get people out but I got in just in case that wasn't the case. It ended up going higher so I stopped out. But then I reshorted on the backside and made it back. So shorting it at the volume spot before was ok I suppose - it was in hindsight that it didn't work. But when I saw a very good pattern later on with lower highs - I should have done more size and been more patient since there was more defined risk now and it looked a lot better. While that is hindsight, it is something to keep in mind. That would be the only lesson for this stock. Another lesson could be to wait for more confirmation but when I first shorted that could have been it.
Other trades: TCCO - I didn't short it like I normally would because it had all the ingredients to go higher potentially but I think a lot of others thought the same so it faded. It offered multiple opportunities that were easy with the big stuffs. I will keep this in mind going forward.
NFLX - I completely missed the initial move since I had it on backburner but did want to get long if it setup properly. Looking at the chart, once it went green and reclaimed the prior support from yesterday was ok. One thing to note is I would have tried to get filled near r/g as close as possible but here that didn't work as it came close to it once it was over it and where I would be interested. Later on after the news hit I was interested in going long too when it was under vwap. I figured it stopped out people and shorts got in and it could go higher. It was a missed opportunity, I will pay more attention to those in the future. You could have given it to .50 o/u arbitrary or buy when it broke above vwap again with a stop to the low.
CTRV - Pretty pissed I missed the move downward as I was being too cautious now after it screwed me so many times. There were some good stuffs but I thought it would have to go higher first. Lesson here is once it looks weak 1-2 days then that might be it and any stuffs/pops should be shorted into.
EBIO - Complete miss on the stuff at the open. I put an order in but wanted to get fancy and get filled on the offer instead of the bid when it was a tight spread so didn't get filled. Stupid. Lesson here is if you like the trade then you should be willing to get in and take liquidity assuming the spread is good.
Things to work on/continue doing:
1. Trade the best, with the best patterns/thesis.
2. Catch the morning moves on these stocks that have good patterns and just fade right off the bat.
3. Don't be in a size where pennies matter to you - TOO MUCH STRESS TO WORRY ABOUT PENNIES. Get in at a general good entry spot and that is it.
4. When you see everyone on twitter go one way on a stock like TCCO, don't be afraid to go the opposite.
5. Look into how to get long on these news plays like NFLX.
6. Once a stock looks weak and has no more tricks - don't be afraid to get in like CTRV.
MMYT: I didn't think the news was worth the huge move and with the way it sold off and had failed follow through today I thought pops to vwap were good. I shorted at vwap and top ticked it and was never down on the position pretty much. I probably should have done more shares since it wasn't a lot to risk but the volume wasn't the best and there was a decent amount of range. I ended up covering at low 28s because I didn't want it to just volume spike on me. It did end up going lower but overall it was a good trade. I didn't want to add anywhere due to the low volume but it's ok. I got a decent move out of it. I could say to be more patient but that's just hindsight. In addition I wanted to start clawing back the losses from before - while that isn't the way you "should" trade I just needed some confidence boosters.
CERU: I had the right read on this but missed the earlier shorts. I saw it having a good pattern around vwap so I shorted there with risk to vwap. I was patient with it and I had a bid at .94 which almost got filled on the initial move downward but then it came back and I thought it reclaimed .97s with a higher low so I got out at .98 but it eventually went lower. It offered nice reshorts later in the day. Only lesson here is to catch the morning moves - it offered a good opportunity on the retest around 1.12 before it washed to sub $1. Another lesson is things may not get to vwap or whatever entry exactly so the best thing is to just place your order at a good spot and you shouldn't be in a size where pennies matter to you. You will stress yourself out. And again the overall thesis and bigger picture calls for a fade so you can be patient with it more. Again, I know you wanted to take profits so it's ok for now.
TSLA: I shorted this when I saw some volume in the 205s thinking there was some buyer exhaustion. I thought it could make a new high and get people out but I got in just in case that wasn't the case. It ended up going higher so I stopped out. But then I reshorted on the backside and made it back. So shorting it at the volume spot before was ok I suppose - it was in hindsight that it didn't work. But when I saw a very good pattern later on with lower highs - I should have done more size and been more patient since there was more defined risk now and it looked a lot better. While that is hindsight, it is something to keep in mind. That would be the only lesson for this stock. Another lesson could be to wait for more confirmation but when I first shorted that could have been it.
Other trades: TCCO - I didn't short it like I normally would because it had all the ingredients to go higher potentially but I think a lot of others thought the same so it faded. It offered multiple opportunities that were easy with the big stuffs. I will keep this in mind going forward.
NFLX - I completely missed the initial move since I had it on backburner but did want to get long if it setup properly. Looking at the chart, once it went green and reclaimed the prior support from yesterday was ok. One thing to note is I would have tried to get filled near r/g as close as possible but here that didn't work as it came close to it once it was over it and where I would be interested. Later on after the news hit I was interested in going long too when it was under vwap. I figured it stopped out people and shorts got in and it could go higher. It was a missed opportunity, I will pay more attention to those in the future. You could have given it to .50 o/u arbitrary or buy when it broke above vwap again with a stop to the low.
CTRV - Pretty pissed I missed the move downward as I was being too cautious now after it screwed me so many times. There were some good stuffs but I thought it would have to go higher first. Lesson here is once it looks weak 1-2 days then that might be it and any stuffs/pops should be shorted into.
EBIO - Complete miss on the stuff at the open. I put an order in but wanted to get fancy and get filled on the offer instead of the bid when it was a tight spread so didn't get filled. Stupid. Lesson here is if you like the trade then you should be willing to get in and take liquidity assuming the spread is good.
Things to work on/continue doing:
1. Trade the best, with the best patterns/thesis.
2. Catch the morning moves on these stocks that have good patterns and just fade right off the bat.
3. Don't be in a size where pennies matter to you - TOO MUCH STRESS TO WORRY ABOUT PENNIES. Get in at a general good entry spot and that is it.
4. When you see everyone on twitter go one way on a stock like TCCO, don't be afraid to go the opposite.
5. Look into how to get long on these news plays like NFLX.
6. Once a stock looks weak and has no more tricks - don't be afraid to get in like CTRV.
Tuesday, October 18, 2016
Trading Recap 10/18/16
Another losing day today although it was small. Two breakeven trades, one trade that chopped me up but the way I traded it was my fault and there were a few ideas that would have worked.
NFLX: I was short biased thinking it cold pullback since the move seemed overdone. There were some scalps at the open since it had some range but what I did was predict where the top was instead of reacting to it telling me. So I shorted wen I thought it made a new high by a few cents. It was a random short. Lesson: Don't predict, react and don't pick tops like that. It ended up going a lot higher and it got to a certain point so I put a stop in case it went higher but it never triggered by a few cents and I got my breakeven limit filled so it was a breakeven trade. After that I thought about shorting it but didn't which was good and then I had the idea that a lot of people might be shorting it so it might go higher despite the huge move. That would have worked as it did go a bit higher and it formed an ABCD. I should have taken this trade but the thing is the risk:reward wasn't worth it to me. Overall it was good I didn't just panic and ended up making a trade that would have been a bad loss into a breakeven one.
TWLO: I was looking for a bounce in the morning but I didn't see a good spot except for the washout. It ended up coming off and it actually looked good for a short but I never took it. It did washout a bit. But that ended up emptying the trade and it just went straight up after that. I tried a short scalp but got out for flat. It was flagging later on and I wanted a dip to get in for a breakout but there was no dip and it just went higher. I thought about buying the breakout but just decided against it. It went $1 while I was looking for it to go to $50 but it just pulled back and I thought about getting in on the dip again but it broke the uptrend so I didn't want to bother unless it had some higher lows.
CTRV: Another day of shorting this and taking a loss on it. I should have traded it better but instead I got chopped up a bit in it although it wasn't so bad. Not much else to say on it other than give things enough room so you don't get chopped up and don't have your bias get in the way of what is actually going on in the chart.
Other ideas I had included HAS long which worked great but I had no conviction in it. I have to get back into longing things. PTCT short was also good and it had a good pattern but I wasn't paying too much attention.
Things to work on:
1. Get back into longing things and finding those patterns.
2. React, don't predict.
NFLX: I was short biased thinking it cold pullback since the move seemed overdone. There were some scalps at the open since it had some range but what I did was predict where the top was instead of reacting to it telling me. So I shorted wen I thought it made a new high by a few cents. It was a random short. Lesson: Don't predict, react and don't pick tops like that. It ended up going a lot higher and it got to a certain point so I put a stop in case it went higher but it never triggered by a few cents and I got my breakeven limit filled so it was a breakeven trade. After that I thought about shorting it but didn't which was good and then I had the idea that a lot of people might be shorting it so it might go higher despite the huge move. That would have worked as it did go a bit higher and it formed an ABCD. I should have taken this trade but the thing is the risk:reward wasn't worth it to me. Overall it was good I didn't just panic and ended up making a trade that would have been a bad loss into a breakeven one.
TWLO: I was looking for a bounce in the morning but I didn't see a good spot except for the washout. It ended up coming off and it actually looked good for a short but I never took it. It did washout a bit. But that ended up emptying the trade and it just went straight up after that. I tried a short scalp but got out for flat. It was flagging later on and I wanted a dip to get in for a breakout but there was no dip and it just went higher. I thought about buying the breakout but just decided against it. It went $1 while I was looking for it to go to $50 but it just pulled back and I thought about getting in on the dip again but it broke the uptrend so I didn't want to bother unless it had some higher lows.
CTRV: Another day of shorting this and taking a loss on it. I should have traded it better but instead I got chopped up a bit in it although it wasn't so bad. Not much else to say on it other than give things enough room so you don't get chopped up and don't have your bias get in the way of what is actually going on in the chart.
Other ideas I had included HAS long which worked great but I had no conviction in it. I have to get back into longing things. PTCT short was also good and it had a good pattern but I wasn't paying too much attention.
Things to work on:
1. Get back into longing things and finding those patterns.
2. React, don't predict.
Monday, October 17, 2016
Trading Recap 10/17/16
Some really, really stupid trades today that resulted in yet another losing day. The stuff I did, I should have known better, and I'm not sure why I did the trades to be honest. There were so many other better opportunities that I just did not take advantage of. Not really much else to say, to be honest.
HAS: This was probably the stupidest trade out of all of them. I shorted more size I should have after I saw what I thought was a stuff and an absorbing offer at 80. I shorted in front of 80 due to these reasons plus the fact that most of the prior earnings have been faded. I didn't really have a plan to get out since I figured it would just work although I figured 80 over/under would be ok. Well it went a bit higher and I got some what ifs? plus I had no real plan and was in too much for some reason. I covered, it dipped, and then went higher. Could it have worked? Meh. I should have put a stop above 80 since the main reason I was short was the absorbing offer on top of the stuff. I didn't think this one through and used the 1min candle for this. I should stick to 2/3 minutes for most cases. Not much else to say here other than of course have a more concrete plan and size accordingly.
ARIA: When it got under vwap I shorted on a pop since I thought it could have continued fade but I should have heeded my lesson from before and make sure to only get in on true peaking action. It was just under it at the time. It could have worked and I gave it enough room where when it dipped I was able to stop out for a much smaller loss. Overall, had I waited for peaking action or more confirmation, I wouldn't have taken the trade. Again, react vs. predict.
CLVS: It finally peaked at that main level I had been looking at (and should have been waiting for this entire time). I saw it was under vwap and looked good so when it broke the uptrend I shorted. I shorted small size because I wanted to give it room. I ended up shorting near the bottom unfortunately and after it retested vwap and held a higher low and went higher I got out. I guess this was worth a shot since it really seemed like it was the day it would go lower and it had enough volume. I did small size since it wasn't the best entry so I guess that was a good call.
SRPT: I saw this in the morning and saw it was peaking at the level I was looking at before the open. I didn't get in then and when it was under vwap since I wasn't too sure about it, but it ended up working great. I ended up shorting when I thought it had a vwap push and fail but it ended up just going higher so I took it off. I might have manufactured something when there wasn't anything there but I guess it could have worked. Meh.
NTNX: This was my only winner but it was a small one. I shorted when it looked weak and was peaking prior resistance. It looked good for a few point flush so I started in, in case it went to vwap I would add there since I wasn't sure how long it would play out. It ended up working pretty quick after this huge offer came out of no where in front of my entry. I thought it was a spoof to just drive it lower before perking it back up so I was skeptical. It ended up making new lows but I was looking for more and I only had partial size. It then fucked around and did nothing the rest of the time essentially.
Things to work on:
1. Nothing new. Everything I should know already.
2. When you are afraid, chances are that is the trade to make.
3. Wait for vwap to hold/peak and confirm.
HAS: This was probably the stupidest trade out of all of them. I shorted more size I should have after I saw what I thought was a stuff and an absorbing offer at 80. I shorted in front of 80 due to these reasons plus the fact that most of the prior earnings have been faded. I didn't really have a plan to get out since I figured it would just work although I figured 80 over/under would be ok. Well it went a bit higher and I got some what ifs? plus I had no real plan and was in too much for some reason. I covered, it dipped, and then went higher. Could it have worked? Meh. I should have put a stop above 80 since the main reason I was short was the absorbing offer on top of the stuff. I didn't think this one through and used the 1min candle for this. I should stick to 2/3 minutes for most cases. Not much else to say here other than of course have a more concrete plan and size accordingly.
ARIA: When it got under vwap I shorted on a pop since I thought it could have continued fade but I should have heeded my lesson from before and make sure to only get in on true peaking action. It was just under it at the time. It could have worked and I gave it enough room where when it dipped I was able to stop out for a much smaller loss. Overall, had I waited for peaking action or more confirmation, I wouldn't have taken the trade. Again, react vs. predict.
CLVS: It finally peaked at that main level I had been looking at (and should have been waiting for this entire time). I saw it was under vwap and looked good so when it broke the uptrend I shorted. I shorted small size because I wanted to give it room. I ended up shorting near the bottom unfortunately and after it retested vwap and held a higher low and went higher I got out. I guess this was worth a shot since it really seemed like it was the day it would go lower and it had enough volume. I did small size since it wasn't the best entry so I guess that was a good call.
SRPT: I saw this in the morning and saw it was peaking at the level I was looking at before the open. I didn't get in then and when it was under vwap since I wasn't too sure about it, but it ended up working great. I ended up shorting when I thought it had a vwap push and fail but it ended up just going higher so I took it off. I might have manufactured something when there wasn't anything there but I guess it could have worked. Meh.
NTNX: This was my only winner but it was a small one. I shorted when it looked weak and was peaking prior resistance. It looked good for a few point flush so I started in, in case it went to vwap I would add there since I wasn't sure how long it would play out. It ended up working pretty quick after this huge offer came out of no where in front of my entry. I thought it was a spoof to just drive it lower before perking it back up so I was skeptical. It ended up making new lows but I was looking for more and I only had partial size. It then fucked around and did nothing the rest of the time essentially.
Things to work on:
1. Nothing new. Everything I should know already.
2. When you are afraid, chances are that is the trade to make.
3. Wait for vwap to hold/peak and confirm.
Saturday, October 15, 2016
Trading Recap 10/15/16
Friday was another pretty bad day. Some lessons were learned though so it wasn't for naught. Unfortunately I ended up giving back all of Tuesday and Wednesday's gains and then some between the last two days. Definitely sucks. Some things off the top of my head: Thesis > minute price action. Don't always be short biased on these. It is dangerous and you are missing potential long opportunities. More to come below.
MGT: I saw this gapping up on BS news so it was instantly on radar. I waited for a good entry in the morning and got it with a perfect entry 4 cents off the high. After a little bit I was 20 cents in the money but figured this would fade a lot more since the trend was broken at this point. I was looking to add under vwap but wanted to wait for more confirmation. I don't regret not covering at this point at all. I waited to add since it was just chilling around vwap. Lesson: Unless it's clearly peaking a level/vwap, don't add/get in. There came a point though where it looked like it reclaimed vwap and I started to think maybe this needs to squeeze out higher since everybody might be shorting this. I should have at least put a breakeven stop at this point. My thought process was it might need to stuff a little bit and go higher first. But I didn't really have a concrete plan in mind as to where I was comfortable with it going. While at the time even though it looked like it reclaimed, the big picture idea was that it could definitely come back down due to bagholders. I didn't want to get stopped out near where it would end up topping out as I was pretty confident at the time. Looking back at the chart though - between the last few days and the daily chart and the hourly chart there is huge resistance at 2.80-3. If I wanted to let it go against me I should have been prepared for that. Instead I went in without that information and ended up covering the 2.64 short at 2.80 (near the top). I think the best thing to do was to set a breakeven stop - if it does something right afterwards then you can always get right back in - like you did on FTNT. So one lesson here: You used to diligently plot the important support and resistance points. The past few days you stopped for whatever reason. Make sure you plot these points. After that I tried to reshort where I covered thinking that was it but not having a real clue that it would be it and I lost a little extra trying that stupid trade trying to pick a top. Second lesson: Don't pick tops. Wait for more confirmation in these scenarios. Afterwards I reshorted when it got under vwap since I figured that was it and there was decent evidence it could now go lower. I waited around but it wouldn't break down under .50 so I covered for a small gain. It eventually came back down but then went right back and looked like it reclaimed. Towards the end of the day I saw it broke under .50 again and I thought we could have EOD wash so I shorted under .50s and it didn't completely wash but it made a new low and I got a small scalp out of it. It ended up being a small loser for me overall. It could have been a small-decent winner had I done some of the things mentioned here in the lessons. Overall, the first short was completely fine. Again, I still don't regret not covering a bit on the wash below vwap but I should have played more defensive and got out at breakeven or covered when I had second thoughts about it after it reclaimed vwap. The second trade shouldn't have occurred since that was just random guessing that was the top. I would not have shorted in the .80s and would have waited for .90 or something at that point but had I just waited for the backside instead where I reshorted it, I'd be slightly positive on the name instead if I did that and covered for breakeven earlier.
CTRV: This ended up being the main loser and I'm not really sure why I was so persistent in trying to keep short it and when it did actually present a nice blow off top I didn't short it then. Looking back at the chart, sure there were some possible tells it could go lower in the morning and the short there was fine but afterwards, it definitely looked like a good long. Anyway, I saw some stuffing a few minutes after the open and wondered why it was up a second day so I shorted. It wasn't a good entry but I figured it was alright since I have seen a lot of these work even if it has to just screw around for a bit. I gave it to the lower high and it went there and came back down and held. I got stopped out but still had a short bias. Looking at the chart at this time, it was clear it was a very good long pattern. After it was consolidating at the highs, I saw it made a new high by a few pennies and then have no followthrough so I figured that was it. I tried reshorting and gave it a couple of cents to see if the pattern was good but it wasn't so I stopped shorting it. Instead it looked like it was consolidating a little higher and was heading higher. Again, don't pick tops. You could have waited for it to drop and then retest for more confirmation vs. just randomly picking tops. Is this hindsight? Perhaps but it's essentially a pattern in reverse of what I look for when shorting. And again thesis > price action. It had the blow off top and I shorted when it got to the prior resistance and got a top tick entry which was good. I ended up covering a little prematurely due to some small blip when it broke down on volume but came back up a bit. It ended up going to vwap which is where I wanted to cover but either way I had a tiny gain on that. I then tried to reshort even though it looked like it had reclaimed vwap and it was going to dip and rip. I ended up covering at the top of the lower and the worst part was I did more size all the times I was wrong and did smaller size when I was right. So no real plan for that other than the what if it goes higher - the plan was 1.80s over/under. Later on I saw it reclaimed vwap and was heading higher so I didn't want to touch it but then it stuffed the 2 break and it seemed like premature EOD run so that would have been a good short I guess. I did short a little later and I saw all the level 2 tricks being played but held through that and it looked like I was about to get paid but then it just spiked out of nowhere and I had to take another loss on it. These EOD shorts on these types of stocks NEVER have worked for me other than for small scalps so I am just not bothering with them anymore. Lessons: Don't try to pick tops and look for the long setup on these if presented with one, overall picture/thesis > price action, sometimes the small blips work and sometimes not, give things enough room, don't bother with the EOD vwap stuffs/meh shorts on these types of setups/stocks.
Things to work on:
1. Thesis > minute price action.
2. Don't always be short biased. Look for the long setup if it presents itself.
3. Unless it's clearly peaking a level/vwap, don't add/get in.
4. For now, play defensive with the breakeven stop on winners that might turn into losers.
5. Make sure to plot support and resistance points.
6. Don't pick tops. Wait for the backside if unsure. Less headache.
7. Sometimes the blips work and sometimes they don't, have the patience to see it through if you are confident enough - which you should since you are in the trade.
8. No more EOD stuffs unless they are premature on these small cap names.
9. Give things enough room.
MGT: I saw this gapping up on BS news so it was instantly on radar. I waited for a good entry in the morning and got it with a perfect entry 4 cents off the high. After a little bit I was 20 cents in the money but figured this would fade a lot more since the trend was broken at this point. I was looking to add under vwap but wanted to wait for more confirmation. I don't regret not covering at this point at all. I waited to add since it was just chilling around vwap. Lesson: Unless it's clearly peaking a level/vwap, don't add/get in. There came a point though where it looked like it reclaimed vwap and I started to think maybe this needs to squeeze out higher since everybody might be shorting this. I should have at least put a breakeven stop at this point. My thought process was it might need to stuff a little bit and go higher first. But I didn't really have a concrete plan in mind as to where I was comfortable with it going. While at the time even though it looked like it reclaimed, the big picture idea was that it could definitely come back down due to bagholders. I didn't want to get stopped out near where it would end up topping out as I was pretty confident at the time. Looking back at the chart though - between the last few days and the daily chart and the hourly chart there is huge resistance at 2.80-3. If I wanted to let it go against me I should have been prepared for that. Instead I went in without that information and ended up covering the 2.64 short at 2.80 (near the top). I think the best thing to do was to set a breakeven stop - if it does something right afterwards then you can always get right back in - like you did on FTNT. So one lesson here: You used to diligently plot the important support and resistance points. The past few days you stopped for whatever reason. Make sure you plot these points. After that I tried to reshort where I covered thinking that was it but not having a real clue that it would be it and I lost a little extra trying that stupid trade trying to pick a top. Second lesson: Don't pick tops. Wait for more confirmation in these scenarios. Afterwards I reshorted when it got under vwap since I figured that was it and there was decent evidence it could now go lower. I waited around but it wouldn't break down under .50 so I covered for a small gain. It eventually came back down but then went right back and looked like it reclaimed. Towards the end of the day I saw it broke under .50 again and I thought we could have EOD wash so I shorted under .50s and it didn't completely wash but it made a new low and I got a small scalp out of it. It ended up being a small loser for me overall. It could have been a small-decent winner had I done some of the things mentioned here in the lessons. Overall, the first short was completely fine. Again, I still don't regret not covering a bit on the wash below vwap but I should have played more defensive and got out at breakeven or covered when I had second thoughts about it after it reclaimed vwap. The second trade shouldn't have occurred since that was just random guessing that was the top. I would not have shorted in the .80s and would have waited for .90 or something at that point but had I just waited for the backside instead where I reshorted it, I'd be slightly positive on the name instead if I did that and covered for breakeven earlier.
CTRV: This ended up being the main loser and I'm not really sure why I was so persistent in trying to keep short it and when it did actually present a nice blow off top I didn't short it then. Looking back at the chart, sure there were some possible tells it could go lower in the morning and the short there was fine but afterwards, it definitely looked like a good long. Anyway, I saw some stuffing a few minutes after the open and wondered why it was up a second day so I shorted. It wasn't a good entry but I figured it was alright since I have seen a lot of these work even if it has to just screw around for a bit. I gave it to the lower high and it went there and came back down and held. I got stopped out but still had a short bias. Looking at the chart at this time, it was clear it was a very good long pattern. After it was consolidating at the highs, I saw it made a new high by a few pennies and then have no followthrough so I figured that was it. I tried reshorting and gave it a couple of cents to see if the pattern was good but it wasn't so I stopped shorting it. Instead it looked like it was consolidating a little higher and was heading higher. Again, don't pick tops. You could have waited for it to drop and then retest for more confirmation vs. just randomly picking tops. Is this hindsight? Perhaps but it's essentially a pattern in reverse of what I look for when shorting. And again thesis > price action. It had the blow off top and I shorted when it got to the prior resistance and got a top tick entry which was good. I ended up covering a little prematurely due to some small blip when it broke down on volume but came back up a bit. It ended up going to vwap which is where I wanted to cover but either way I had a tiny gain on that. I then tried to reshort even though it looked like it had reclaimed vwap and it was going to dip and rip. I ended up covering at the top of the lower and the worst part was I did more size all the times I was wrong and did smaller size when I was right. So no real plan for that other than the what if it goes higher - the plan was 1.80s over/under. Later on I saw it reclaimed vwap and was heading higher so I didn't want to touch it but then it stuffed the 2 break and it seemed like premature EOD run so that would have been a good short I guess. I did short a little later and I saw all the level 2 tricks being played but held through that and it looked like I was about to get paid but then it just spiked out of nowhere and I had to take another loss on it. These EOD shorts on these types of stocks NEVER have worked for me other than for small scalps so I am just not bothering with them anymore. Lessons: Don't try to pick tops and look for the long setup on these if presented with one, overall picture/thesis > price action, sometimes the small blips work and sometimes not, give things enough room, don't bother with the EOD vwap stuffs/meh shorts on these types of setups/stocks.
Things to work on:
1. Thesis > minute price action.
2. Don't always be short biased. Look for the long setup if it presents itself.
3. Unless it's clearly peaking a level/vwap, don't add/get in.
4. For now, play defensive with the breakeven stop on winners that might turn into losers.
5. Make sure to plot support and resistance points.
6. Don't pick tops. Wait for the backside if unsure. Less headache.
7. Sometimes the blips work and sometimes they don't, have the patience to see it through if you are confident enough - which you should since you are in the trade.
8. No more EOD stuffs unless they are premature on these small cap names.
9. Give things enough room.
Thursday, October 13, 2016
Trading Recap 10/13/16
Today was a pretty shitty day as I lost all of Wednesday's gains in about 20 minutes with three trades back to back not working. The sad part is that literally every other trade I wanted to/should have taken would have worked. There's not much to say about the three trades I took. They weren't completely random but they weren't really that good in hindsight. I think it came down to frustration from missing out on some earlier moves and just wanting to get something that looked like it could work but meh. So that is just the main lesson for today.
Some other things to mention. AAMC once it went to new highs and came back I knew it had gotten everyone out but I was too afraid to go in. Those are the times when you bank the most - I have to be willing to put some risk on when I see a A++ setup like that - similar to SAEX. It is difficult to add to that if you shorted when it was under vwap but wanted to stay in.
SRPT and CLVS were just randomish trades that could have worked I guess but were just random. SRPT was more random - I had thought it would be a good short much earlier and then it went down $1 so after missing that whole move I figured r/g would be a good spot for continued fade. But that didn't work. CLVS went under vwap so I tried it again for the 100th time and it was more of a dip than a peak and there wasn't a lot of volume so. But for CLVS I did cover near the top and could have gotten out for flat had I held a bit. Perhaps I should have given it to r/g over/under or waited for more confirmation. I think it just came down to wanting to get in something.
OCUL I missed the morning move and then went full size too quick and ended up covering near the top as it was a last ditch yolo play to get me back from my downside. It ended up working.
These are the days that remind you to only trade the best setups and forget the rest. Also, it's why you don't go full size all at once but go in partial and add in on good spots and don't panic if it goes a bit more than you thought it would.
Lessons:
1. When you are most scared, chances are that's the time to strike.
2. When you miss plays that would have you banking, don't get FOMO on everything else to play catch up.
3. If something goes against you a bit more, don't freak out and instead see about adding if possible.
Some other things to mention. AAMC once it went to new highs and came back I knew it had gotten everyone out but I was too afraid to go in. Those are the times when you bank the most - I have to be willing to put some risk on when I see a A++ setup like that - similar to SAEX. It is difficult to add to that if you shorted when it was under vwap but wanted to stay in.
SRPT and CLVS were just randomish trades that could have worked I guess but were just random. SRPT was more random - I had thought it would be a good short much earlier and then it went down $1 so after missing that whole move I figured r/g would be a good spot for continued fade. But that didn't work. CLVS went under vwap so I tried it again for the 100th time and it was more of a dip than a peak and there wasn't a lot of volume so. But for CLVS I did cover near the top and could have gotten out for flat had I held a bit. Perhaps I should have given it to r/g over/under or waited for more confirmation. I think it just came down to wanting to get in something.
OCUL I missed the morning move and then went full size too quick and ended up covering near the top as it was a last ditch yolo play to get me back from my downside. It ended up working.
These are the days that remind you to only trade the best setups and forget the rest. Also, it's why you don't go full size all at once but go in partial and add in on good spots and don't panic if it goes a bit more than you thought it would.
Lessons:
1. When you are most scared, chances are that's the time to strike.
2. When you miss plays that would have you banking, don't get FOMO on everything else to play catch up.
3. If something goes against you a bit more, don't freak out and instead see about adding if possible.
Wednesday, October 12, 2016
Trading Recap 10/12/16
Today was a slightly profitable day. All green tickers again. While I could say I should have been up more - there were some trades I would have done that would have been losers and some that would have been winners. Some that come to mind are CUDA long when it was over vwap which would have been a loser, SRPT short when it was under vwap and had the same pattern as yesterday - goes to show big picture > anything else although the big picture could have supported continued fade, and HTGM short at the top which I almost did but pussied out on unfortunately. Win some, you lose some - in the end it won't matter. Process is better but psychology needs improvement with not caring about the money and not having fear.
FTNT: Shorted when it got to 30 and looked like it made a new high by penny. These usually have two pushes which this did and then drops a bit then does nothing the rest of the day. So I tried that but didn't give it enough room. I was ok with it making a new high by a few cents but it did that a couple of times so I got out. I should have waited for some topping action instead of just guessing and predicting. So I stopped out near the high unfortunately but then saw it come off and saw my mistake so I reshorted and that looked like it was working but it came back to stop me out for flat. I saw that it had possibly gotten everyone out so I reshorted and it worked and got under vwap but never reached my target so when it reclaimed I just got out. Overall I was essentially flat on it. Frustrating stock. Lesson: Don't predict but react, give things enough room.
NTNX: I tried shorting this as it came under vwap and looked like it was fishing for stops and then $33 was absorbing on the offer. It came back down but eventually triggered my breakeven stop. I was thinking of getting back in but it looked like it reclaimed and had low vol too so I avoided it. It ended up going higher before coming back down. Overall it was worth a shot. Should I have been more patient and given it the full out to vwap over/under? I guess that is good process but with such low vol I didn't want to take a chance.
NSPR: I saw this consolidating and it was definitely a good short as it was around vwap but I didn't do it because I thought it could go higher. It definitely stuffed a few times though so that was a sign. It had the volume today and everything to support that this was the top but I was being too cautious. With the way it was consolidating I thought it would push higher at least before coming back down. Oh well. I shorted a pop later in the day and covered for a small gain. Lesson: Stocks that consolidate with stuffing like AUPH did are good shorts.
HTGM: I saw the double top on this with volume in the morning and thought about going in but noticed how much of the float was trading. It stuffed on the breakout and made a new high by a penny. This followed by L2 games made me think it was definitely a short for a scalp at least. Unfortunately as I mentioned before I didn't do it mainly due to the float being traded so rapidly but that didn't matter in this case. I was too cautious but whatever. I saw it later on stuff in the .50s but didn't short it then unfortunately. I did short it later in the day on another stuff after the fed and that worked well for a small scalp. Lesson: Sometimes float traded doesn't matter and if you see everything line up then take the shot.
Things to remember:
1. Float rotation sometimes matters and sometimes not. It may not matter on day 1 so much either like DGLY and how it took a while to squeeze with the circumstances too.
2. Thesis/big picture > minute price action
3. Consolidations with stuffs are ok for shorts
4. React, don't predict
FTNT: Shorted when it got to 30 and looked like it made a new high by penny. These usually have two pushes which this did and then drops a bit then does nothing the rest of the day. So I tried that but didn't give it enough room. I was ok with it making a new high by a few cents but it did that a couple of times so I got out. I should have waited for some topping action instead of just guessing and predicting. So I stopped out near the high unfortunately but then saw it come off and saw my mistake so I reshorted and that looked like it was working but it came back to stop me out for flat. I saw that it had possibly gotten everyone out so I reshorted and it worked and got under vwap but never reached my target so when it reclaimed I just got out. Overall I was essentially flat on it. Frustrating stock. Lesson: Don't predict but react, give things enough room.
NTNX: I tried shorting this as it came under vwap and looked like it was fishing for stops and then $33 was absorbing on the offer. It came back down but eventually triggered my breakeven stop. I was thinking of getting back in but it looked like it reclaimed and had low vol too so I avoided it. It ended up going higher before coming back down. Overall it was worth a shot. Should I have been more patient and given it the full out to vwap over/under? I guess that is good process but with such low vol I didn't want to take a chance.
NSPR: I saw this consolidating and it was definitely a good short as it was around vwap but I didn't do it because I thought it could go higher. It definitely stuffed a few times though so that was a sign. It had the volume today and everything to support that this was the top but I was being too cautious. With the way it was consolidating I thought it would push higher at least before coming back down. Oh well. I shorted a pop later in the day and covered for a small gain. Lesson: Stocks that consolidate with stuffing like AUPH did are good shorts.
HTGM: I saw the double top on this with volume in the morning and thought about going in but noticed how much of the float was trading. It stuffed on the breakout and made a new high by a penny. This followed by L2 games made me think it was definitely a short for a scalp at least. Unfortunately as I mentioned before I didn't do it mainly due to the float being traded so rapidly but that didn't matter in this case. I was too cautious but whatever. I saw it later on stuff in the .50s but didn't short it then unfortunately. I did short it later in the day on another stuff after the fed and that worked well for a small scalp. Lesson: Sometimes float traded doesn't matter and if you see everything line up then take the shot.
Things to remember:
1. Float rotation sometimes matters and sometimes not. It may not matter on day 1 so much either like DGLY and how it took a while to squeeze with the circumstances too.
2. Thesis/big picture > minute price action
3. Consolidations with stuffs are ok for shorts
4. React, don't predict
Tuesday, October 11, 2016
Trading Recap 10/11/16
Today was a pretty profitable day and may have been my best day yet by only a few dollars probably. All green tickers and for the most part well executed. I did cover my SRPT short $1 too early but it's ok. If that was the only mistake today then it wasn't bad.
SRPT: I had this on watch due to a downward break from the consolidation it has been having the past few days. It had a very good-looking pattern on the hourly so I had it on top watch, especially with the offering buyers being bagholders at this point. Once it got under vwap and held under it and had a very good pattern I got in with risk to vwap over/under. It worked right away. I originally had a bid in at the low 54s due to some support it had from prior days which would have been nice. But I saw some decent volume coming and wanted to lock it in since I was up nicely. That is pretty much the trade. If I had more size I would have covered half and let the rest go I guess but it's fine. Usually I am pretty good with being patient but it's tough because I am trying to balance building up vs. being patient. I'm not really sure what to say about this other than I think for now it's better to stay on the side of taking profits and building up. When I ask myself would I be more upset if it turns into a flat trade vs. extra profits the answer is I would hate for it to be a flat trade. So in the end that's it and for now I'm just looking for paychecks. The only other trade I saw in it was a stuff candle near the lows that did work for scalp and that was it. Not really a lesson here - I did good size on it given the amount of room I had to give it and my downside and I covered at an ok spot despite it going lower. Keep it up!
LPCN: I saw the gap up and didn't really know what to do with it. I didn't trust it for much but I just had my eye on it. I saw it had a pretty nice stuff and when looking at a longer timeframe it looked like the gap up and stuff was it coming back under resistance and stopping everyone out. So I got in but with small size since I didn't completely trust it. It dipped lower and I thought I was ok but then it ripped back up all of a sudden. It made me instantly not trust it so I put a breakeven stop that was 1 cent away from getting triggered. It ended up going back lower and my bid at r/g got hit and that was it. Only lesson here is that the dip and rip does not mean it has bottomed but I knew that.
CLVS: This is a tricky stock for sure. When looking at the 1min chart in the morning it definitely looked like it was rejecting vwap but thanks to using the 3min chart I avoided that. It rocketed up and I stayed away since I wasn't sure how high it could go. After it went red and consolidated there I shorted with risk to r/g over/under since it looked pretty weak compared to prior days. It did dip lower but then shot up right away just like LPCN did and my breakeven stop got me out for flat. It ended up coming back down then up again. It looked like it went slightly higher and peaked at r/g and had a lower high so I tried it again and it did go lower and flush the support but then came back and then the .80s started absorbing quite a bit. I noticed it but didn't want to put too much credence in it since it could have easily kept fading and I wouldn't have wanted to get out there when that was only reason for me to cover. But that did end up being the bottom and it retested 32s, failed, but then held and reclaimed, and stopped me out above the prior high it made and that was it. It ended up going higher later in the day. Overall nothing to say here. I was thinking of adding when it looked good on the second short but decided against it since it didn't confirm much and it was still close to the prior day's support. So that was good thinking.
Things to work on:
1. Be more patient on winners? - depends but this is a secondary issue for now
SRPT: I had this on watch due to a downward break from the consolidation it has been having the past few days. It had a very good-looking pattern on the hourly so I had it on top watch, especially with the offering buyers being bagholders at this point. Once it got under vwap and held under it and had a very good pattern I got in with risk to vwap over/under. It worked right away. I originally had a bid in at the low 54s due to some support it had from prior days which would have been nice. But I saw some decent volume coming and wanted to lock it in since I was up nicely. That is pretty much the trade. If I had more size I would have covered half and let the rest go I guess but it's fine. Usually I am pretty good with being patient but it's tough because I am trying to balance building up vs. being patient. I'm not really sure what to say about this other than I think for now it's better to stay on the side of taking profits and building up. When I ask myself would I be more upset if it turns into a flat trade vs. extra profits the answer is I would hate for it to be a flat trade. So in the end that's it and for now I'm just looking for paychecks. The only other trade I saw in it was a stuff candle near the lows that did work for scalp and that was it. Not really a lesson here - I did good size on it given the amount of room I had to give it and my downside and I covered at an ok spot despite it going lower. Keep it up!
LPCN: I saw the gap up and didn't really know what to do with it. I didn't trust it for much but I just had my eye on it. I saw it had a pretty nice stuff and when looking at a longer timeframe it looked like the gap up and stuff was it coming back under resistance and stopping everyone out. So I got in but with small size since I didn't completely trust it. It dipped lower and I thought I was ok but then it ripped back up all of a sudden. It made me instantly not trust it so I put a breakeven stop that was 1 cent away from getting triggered. It ended up going back lower and my bid at r/g got hit and that was it. Only lesson here is that the dip and rip does not mean it has bottomed but I knew that.
CLVS: This is a tricky stock for sure. When looking at the 1min chart in the morning it definitely looked like it was rejecting vwap but thanks to using the 3min chart I avoided that. It rocketed up and I stayed away since I wasn't sure how high it could go. After it went red and consolidated there I shorted with risk to r/g over/under since it looked pretty weak compared to prior days. It did dip lower but then shot up right away just like LPCN did and my breakeven stop got me out for flat. It ended up coming back down then up again. It looked like it went slightly higher and peaked at r/g and had a lower high so I tried it again and it did go lower and flush the support but then came back and then the .80s started absorbing quite a bit. I noticed it but didn't want to put too much credence in it since it could have easily kept fading and I wouldn't have wanted to get out there when that was only reason for me to cover. But that did end up being the bottom and it retested 32s, failed, but then held and reclaimed, and stopped me out above the prior high it made and that was it. It ended up going higher later in the day. Overall nothing to say here. I was thinking of adding when it looked good on the second short but decided against it since it didn't confirm much and it was still close to the prior day's support. So that was good thinking.
Things to work on:
1. Be more patient on winners? - depends but this is a secondary issue for now
Monday, October 10, 2016
Trading Recap 10/10/16
Today I had a lot of good ideas but failed to capitalize on them (what else is new).
MYL: I thought the move was overdone so I was short biased, especially since it had lower highs going into the open. I hesitated when I saw a nice vwap stuff on volume and that ended up being a good initial entry. So lesson #1 again: just go for it. I shorted on the retest which worked out and I covered at support so that was a good scalp. Then I reshorted it again and added when it peaked $39. It made new lows but then quickly came back up. It definitely looked like it was reclaiming that level and I should have gotten out but I wanted to give it a little time. Unfortunately I let it grind the trade back to flat when I had a decent profit on it. Lesson: 1. Just take the trade - again your ideas are pretty solid. 2. Just take it off if you think it reclaimed. Obviously situation dependent and sometimes it works and sometimes it doesn't but on a trade like this where it's not a low float that can fade all day and you are just playing technical moves on a larger cap stocks - just take it off.
NTNX: This stock has been responsible for a lot of my potential gains that never materialized. In the morning I was more long biased and when it broke above vwap I went long thinking it would bounce more. I saw it made a new high by a penny and came off. While I was hesitant I wanted to give it some room to work since stocks do a lot of things and it doesn't mean it can't go higher. But I put my stop and it triggered so that was it. I then thought a little later how it looked good for a short and didn't take it for some reason and it was definitely a good short.. Later on it just had a low volume consolidation and despite it being low vol it had a very good pattern and looked very weak so I went in with smaller size in case it popped on low vol and didn't look back. It looked like it was going to break down then it spiked quickly and it looked like a stuff a bit but at the time I said screw it and got out. It then hovered and trickled higher which would have definitely gotten me out and then stuffed big. I should have gotten in on the stuff when I saw it but it's hindsight. I thought about getting in when it was consolidating lower but never did and it just kept washing out. Lesson: 1st trade while it didn't work was ok. The stuff could have tipped you off about it not working but it could have easily had kept going up - many situations like that have happened so that's not an issue. Other lesson is to just give things the full out I guess.
CLVS: This one defied my expectations today. Going into the day I thought a push to $30 would be ideal for a short as it seemed like it could continue fading based on what I thought had happened: shorts were out and longs would continue to sell. So when it got to $30 and seemed like it had made a nhod but then came off - I thought it did the same thing as Friday so I shorted at $30 but then it ended up going higher and it wasn't what I thought it would do so I got out. Good thing because it went $2 higher.
Other mentions:
TWLO and ACIA - both looked weak but no borrows
CRBP: I had borrowed it and had the order in but canceled it due to low vol. Would have worked fantastic. Level 2 made me cancel it as well. Lesson: Fuck L2. Hurts you more than it helps.
Things to remember:
1. Fuck L2. Hurts more than it helps.
2. Take the trade and take it with size.
3. Take it off with reclaims in certain/most cases.
4. Things can still work with low vol. Just have to be careful.
MYL: I thought the move was overdone so I was short biased, especially since it had lower highs going into the open. I hesitated when I saw a nice vwap stuff on volume and that ended up being a good initial entry. So lesson #1 again: just go for it. I shorted on the retest which worked out and I covered at support so that was a good scalp. Then I reshorted it again and added when it peaked $39. It made new lows but then quickly came back up. It definitely looked like it was reclaiming that level and I should have gotten out but I wanted to give it a little time. Unfortunately I let it grind the trade back to flat when I had a decent profit on it. Lesson: 1. Just take the trade - again your ideas are pretty solid. 2. Just take it off if you think it reclaimed. Obviously situation dependent and sometimes it works and sometimes it doesn't but on a trade like this where it's not a low float that can fade all day and you are just playing technical moves on a larger cap stocks - just take it off.
NTNX: This stock has been responsible for a lot of my potential gains that never materialized. In the morning I was more long biased and when it broke above vwap I went long thinking it would bounce more. I saw it made a new high by a penny and came off. While I was hesitant I wanted to give it some room to work since stocks do a lot of things and it doesn't mean it can't go higher. But I put my stop and it triggered so that was it. I then thought a little later how it looked good for a short and didn't take it for some reason and it was definitely a good short.. Later on it just had a low volume consolidation and despite it being low vol it had a very good pattern and looked very weak so I went in with smaller size in case it popped on low vol and didn't look back. It looked like it was going to break down then it spiked quickly and it looked like a stuff a bit but at the time I said screw it and got out. It then hovered and trickled higher which would have definitely gotten me out and then stuffed big. I should have gotten in on the stuff when I saw it but it's hindsight. I thought about getting in when it was consolidating lower but never did and it just kept washing out. Lesson: 1st trade while it didn't work was ok. The stuff could have tipped you off about it not working but it could have easily had kept going up - many situations like that have happened so that's not an issue. Other lesson is to just give things the full out I guess.
CLVS: This one defied my expectations today. Going into the day I thought a push to $30 would be ideal for a short as it seemed like it could continue fading based on what I thought had happened: shorts were out and longs would continue to sell. So when it got to $30 and seemed like it had made a nhod but then came off - I thought it did the same thing as Friday so I shorted at $30 but then it ended up going higher and it wasn't what I thought it would do so I got out. Good thing because it went $2 higher.
Other mentions:
TWLO and ACIA - both looked weak but no borrows
CRBP: I had borrowed it and had the order in but canceled it due to low vol. Would have worked fantastic. Level 2 made me cancel it as well. Lesson: Fuck L2. Hurts you more than it helps.
Things to remember:
1. Fuck L2. Hurts more than it helps.
2. Take the trade and take it with size.
3. Take it off with reclaims in certain/most cases.
4. Things can still work with low vol. Just have to be careful.
Saturday, October 8, 2016
Trading Recap 10/7/2016
Friday was a losing day. There were some good trades and some bad ones - good ideas again that I didn't end up executing on unfortunately. I did make a stupid trade on CLVS that deterred me from trading it again when I had the right reads on it completely. I just gave it a random shot and forced something that I knew wasn't really there for some reason - very unusual of me. But afterwards I didn't care about too much although I wish I traded it later on.
AUPH: Going into the day I wasn't sure what to think and wasn't in a hurry to short it. I still thought that it could go a bit more due to the float rotation the past few days. The ideal trade was it pushing to r/g with heavy volume and failing. It pushed to the prior support from the prior day and thought that could be a trade. I did find it weak looking that it broke that level in premkt trading. So I thought about shorting it when it got up there but overall decided against it. It did get under vwap after that though and I decided overall it looked weak then. So I gave it a shot and for what I wanted to see and for my trade to make sense - it wouldn't get over vwap again. It hovered under vwap for a while but I just saw it basing and said this doesn't look like a good entry overall and it's not fading right away like these setups usually do so I got out for flat essentially and it was right before it made its push higher, which was good. Afterwards it looked like it didn't have much volume on the 1min although looking back it was still alright. I saw it get under vwap again and thought about giving it another shot but again I thought about the lowish volume and the fact that it could just spike higher randomly. Unfortunately, I didn't see a very, very good setup afterwards since I took my eye off of it where it just hovers below the prior support and then the dump just ensues. Overall, it was worth a shot in the morning, it was just bad timing but it was good to take it off when it wasn't doing what I thought it should. Only thing to learn from is to keep things more on watch I guess and don't discount your ideas so much as again, they are getting better. The only thing I could have done is start into it on that push and give it to 5.20s where I thought a push would happen to add in and that would be my risk. Had I done that I probably would have added under vwap and maybe covered it all when I didn't like what it was doing. Waited until it came back down again to short it. Obviously this is hindsight but something to think about.
LPCN: I didn't see it all for the morning move but saw it on my scanner later on. I saw the news and daily chart and the price target just seemed like a pump that would be faded back to nowhere. So while I missed the initial move I thought there was still a lot more room to go. I shorted after it looked like it was peaking the prior levels and once it came under I added into it. It was just consolidating lower there and it ended up being a bear trap so it ripped up a bit. I told myself damn I got caught in the trap but I think it will dip at least. So instead of panicking out at the top I waited to see if it dipped. It dipped near my avg and I just got out there which was a good choice. So no harm done from this trade. Later on I saw it higher and instead of ignoring it I should have thought - hey it looked liked it squeezed out all the bear trap people who didn't cover before. It had a push above the 5.7 level that was rejected which showed me it could have squeezed everyone out. At the same time I thought that these analyst upgrade stocks sometimes get pumped even higher and I didn't want to be exposed. But it ended up being a good trade. Later on in the day I saw it stuff vwap a few times and I thought ok it could fade more but never gave it a shot. But then it went through vwap with some decent volume and I thought ok this could fade now that they pushed it here. So I shorted small in case they needed to pump it higher. It got under vwap so I added and then it just hung around. I saw they might need to pump it higher because they flashed some big fake bids and I saw offers that needed to be filled so I didn't want to a repeat of OPTT so I sized down and waited. It came back under vwap so I got back in again to half size but it just never washed out and just went a little higher so I covered for a small loss. Overall it was a good shot and worthwhile and I am proud of how I sized in and out of it when I thought they would pump it higher.
CLVS: What a pump this turned out to be. Unfortunately I didn't trade it all during premarket although the spreads were pretty wide at some points so it was definitely sketchy. My thesis going into the open was that there would be a lot of bagholders who would want to sell so I was still short biased despite the deep pullback. I thought about shorting it at the open but didn't see a really good setup and I was really undecided if I should just get in there or not. It did end up working for a good scalp back to the lows but I think a lot of people had the same idea to short it and so it rocketed back up and squeezed. I did think about shorting on a big volume bar candle but wanted to wait it out. It did go a $1 higher and I saw it hovering near the top. It popped up again past the candle and I definitely felt it just did that extra pop to get everyone out. I definitely thought about shorting it there but didn't and I regret it as that was definitely a nice scalp. Later on I did short it at a random spot and as I alluded to in the intro, it was just a forced trade that came out of nowhere for some reason. I looked way too minutely into the chart. After that I didn't trade it although it did the exact same thing again where it had a small final push after consolidating at highs before coming off. Later on it just did nothing for a while and it was just churning around. I figured it would dip and trap more shorts and come back into range or stuff hard and get all shorts in. It did the former but what was interesting was it just got back to the prior $31 level and didn't go higher after it must have trapped shorts. I did find that odd but wasn't sure although it definitely looked weak. Later on, even though the dips were getting bought back up I saw that each successive pop was lower so I did think about shorting it but couldn't really find an entry I liked and by the time I noticed it, it was at the bottom of the range and I didn't want to short at support. I figured I would let it drop and short a retest of $30 for a backside move once shorts were exhausted and also something else I didn't think of in real time was that longs who were bagged might have waited for a bounce and something in the the $30ish level before selling. Anyway it never got back to $30 - once a stock gets all the shorts out it just goes down without issue. I didn't want to short it lower than that although looking back it did have that nice consolidation underneath lows that works very well just like AUPH. So that might be why it squeezed how it did - only shorts in the morning and no longs selling until it got higher. So overall besides that one trade I had a good read on it but just didn't execute as well as I had liked. Overall in a situation like this I should be wary that others are just going to short it and that longs may want a bounce before selling. Another important thing to mention is that throughout the trade I thought it would have to go parabolic a bit before a top was put in. I tend to default that it has to go parabolic but a top can be put in via other ways too. One thing to note is it did go a bit parabolic earlier but it still went a bit higher anyway. A top can be put in just via price rejection (each of the small consolidation breakouts getting rejected right back down). There was no big volume stuff or parabolic to mark the top - just an initiative move upward that got shorts out and longs in and that was it.
Other ideas I had:
Short COUP when it went red which worked fantastic - sometimes these work and sometimes they don't.
Short ACIA when it was under vwap - it definitely worked and I did notice it was pretty weak after the offering. There were no shares to short and it did pop after I would have gotten in had there been shares but it goes to show you have to give things room.
Things to work on:
1. Plan better in the mornings. Balance this with just reacting vs. predicting.
2. In situation with CLVS - remember that in the beginning it could just be shorts that go for it and longs may wait until higher prices to sell which can lead to a squeeze. When the news is obviously bad, it can be crowded to the short side.
3. On CLVS trades you have to short when it looks good to breakout and cover when it dips for sure.
4. While you are definitely perceptive, AUPH and CLVS patterns were good. It is good to remind yourself during the session to look at the charts again in a big picture way for the day.
5. In cases like bear traps think of where they would panic out of and then short there like LPCN/CLVS.
6. Tops can be put in via just pure price - there doesn't have to be a big stuff volume bar or a parabolic - the stock just has to get shorts out so if that means it's just a small initial move upward out of a consolidation that gets rejected then that's it. It is all situation dependent but don't always look for big volume/huge parabolics as tops all the time.
AUPH: Going into the day I wasn't sure what to think and wasn't in a hurry to short it. I still thought that it could go a bit more due to the float rotation the past few days. The ideal trade was it pushing to r/g with heavy volume and failing. It pushed to the prior support from the prior day and thought that could be a trade. I did find it weak looking that it broke that level in premkt trading. So I thought about shorting it when it got up there but overall decided against it. It did get under vwap after that though and I decided overall it looked weak then. So I gave it a shot and for what I wanted to see and for my trade to make sense - it wouldn't get over vwap again. It hovered under vwap for a while but I just saw it basing and said this doesn't look like a good entry overall and it's not fading right away like these setups usually do so I got out for flat essentially and it was right before it made its push higher, which was good. Afterwards it looked like it didn't have much volume on the 1min although looking back it was still alright. I saw it get under vwap again and thought about giving it another shot but again I thought about the lowish volume and the fact that it could just spike higher randomly. Unfortunately, I didn't see a very, very good setup afterwards since I took my eye off of it where it just hovers below the prior support and then the dump just ensues. Overall, it was worth a shot in the morning, it was just bad timing but it was good to take it off when it wasn't doing what I thought it should. Only thing to learn from is to keep things more on watch I guess and don't discount your ideas so much as again, they are getting better. The only thing I could have done is start into it on that push and give it to 5.20s where I thought a push would happen to add in and that would be my risk. Had I done that I probably would have added under vwap and maybe covered it all when I didn't like what it was doing. Waited until it came back down again to short it. Obviously this is hindsight but something to think about.
LPCN: I didn't see it all for the morning move but saw it on my scanner later on. I saw the news and daily chart and the price target just seemed like a pump that would be faded back to nowhere. So while I missed the initial move I thought there was still a lot more room to go. I shorted after it looked like it was peaking the prior levels and once it came under I added into it. It was just consolidating lower there and it ended up being a bear trap so it ripped up a bit. I told myself damn I got caught in the trap but I think it will dip at least. So instead of panicking out at the top I waited to see if it dipped. It dipped near my avg and I just got out there which was a good choice. So no harm done from this trade. Later on I saw it higher and instead of ignoring it I should have thought - hey it looked liked it squeezed out all the bear trap people who didn't cover before. It had a push above the 5.7 level that was rejected which showed me it could have squeezed everyone out. At the same time I thought that these analyst upgrade stocks sometimes get pumped even higher and I didn't want to be exposed. But it ended up being a good trade. Later on in the day I saw it stuff vwap a few times and I thought ok it could fade more but never gave it a shot. But then it went through vwap with some decent volume and I thought ok this could fade now that they pushed it here. So I shorted small in case they needed to pump it higher. It got under vwap so I added and then it just hung around. I saw they might need to pump it higher because they flashed some big fake bids and I saw offers that needed to be filled so I didn't want to a repeat of OPTT so I sized down and waited. It came back under vwap so I got back in again to half size but it just never washed out and just went a little higher so I covered for a small loss. Overall it was a good shot and worthwhile and I am proud of how I sized in and out of it when I thought they would pump it higher.
CLVS: What a pump this turned out to be. Unfortunately I didn't trade it all during premarket although the spreads were pretty wide at some points so it was definitely sketchy. My thesis going into the open was that there would be a lot of bagholders who would want to sell so I was still short biased despite the deep pullback. I thought about shorting it at the open but didn't see a really good setup and I was really undecided if I should just get in there or not. It did end up working for a good scalp back to the lows but I think a lot of people had the same idea to short it and so it rocketed back up and squeezed. I did think about shorting on a big volume bar candle but wanted to wait it out. It did go a $1 higher and I saw it hovering near the top. It popped up again past the candle and I definitely felt it just did that extra pop to get everyone out. I definitely thought about shorting it there but didn't and I regret it as that was definitely a nice scalp. Later on I did short it at a random spot and as I alluded to in the intro, it was just a forced trade that came out of nowhere for some reason. I looked way too minutely into the chart. After that I didn't trade it although it did the exact same thing again where it had a small final push after consolidating at highs before coming off. Later on it just did nothing for a while and it was just churning around. I figured it would dip and trap more shorts and come back into range or stuff hard and get all shorts in. It did the former but what was interesting was it just got back to the prior $31 level and didn't go higher after it must have trapped shorts. I did find that odd but wasn't sure although it definitely looked weak. Later on, even though the dips were getting bought back up I saw that each successive pop was lower so I did think about shorting it but couldn't really find an entry I liked and by the time I noticed it, it was at the bottom of the range and I didn't want to short at support. I figured I would let it drop and short a retest of $30 for a backside move once shorts were exhausted and also something else I didn't think of in real time was that longs who were bagged might have waited for a bounce and something in the the $30ish level before selling. Anyway it never got back to $30 - once a stock gets all the shorts out it just goes down without issue. I didn't want to short it lower than that although looking back it did have that nice consolidation underneath lows that works very well just like AUPH. So that might be why it squeezed how it did - only shorts in the morning and no longs selling until it got higher. So overall besides that one trade I had a good read on it but just didn't execute as well as I had liked. Overall in a situation like this I should be wary that others are just going to short it and that longs may want a bounce before selling. Another important thing to mention is that throughout the trade I thought it would have to go parabolic a bit before a top was put in. I tend to default that it has to go parabolic but a top can be put in via other ways too. One thing to note is it did go a bit parabolic earlier but it still went a bit higher anyway. A top can be put in just via price rejection (each of the small consolidation breakouts getting rejected right back down). There was no big volume stuff or parabolic to mark the top - just an initiative move upward that got shorts out and longs in and that was it.
Other ideas I had:
Short COUP when it went red which worked fantastic - sometimes these work and sometimes they don't.
Short ACIA when it was under vwap - it definitely worked and I did notice it was pretty weak after the offering. There were no shares to short and it did pop after I would have gotten in had there been shares but it goes to show you have to give things room.
Things to work on:
1. Plan better in the mornings. Balance this with just reacting vs. predicting.
2. In situation with CLVS - remember that in the beginning it could just be shorts that go for it and longs may wait until higher prices to sell which can lead to a squeeze. When the news is obviously bad, it can be crowded to the short side.
3. On CLVS trades you have to short when it looks good to breakout and cover when it dips for sure.
4. While you are definitely perceptive, AUPH and CLVS patterns were good. It is good to remind yourself during the session to look at the charts again in a big picture way for the day.
5. In cases like bear traps think of where they would panic out of and then short there like LPCN/CLVS.
6. Tops can be put in via just pure price - there doesn't have to be a big stuff volume bar or a parabolic - the stock just has to get shorts out so if that means it's just a small initial move upward out of a consolidation that gets rejected then that's it. It is all situation dependent but don't always look for big volume/huge parabolics as tops all the time.
Thursday, October 6, 2016
Trading Recap 10/6/16
Today was a positive day, not as much as yesterday but still ok. A few winners and losers. Some trades I didn't take that would have worked and some that may not have worked. Overall my hit rate is still pretty good on my ideas generated overall - execution is something that still needs to be worked on and giving things enough room. Some trades today would have worked overall had I not stopped out and given it to some other level. Sometimes that works out and sometimes it doesn't.
AUPH: I got a decent short entry in the morning because it looked like it stuffed and held below the prior resistance in premkt. I stopped out when it made new highs. Later on I saw that it made a penny above all time highs and thought about shorting there which ended up being the top but decided against it. Later on after it dipped and ripped it kept stuffing so I thought about shorting it then but thought that there were no bagholders in the stock and that it was only potentially shorts in it. But that didn't stop it from going lower though. So overall a few things here: 1. I could have potentially added to AUPH by looking at the longer time frame chart and based my risk on that all time high. Or I could have shorted it again higher. The reason I didn't was because of #2. 2. Even though a stock is at highs and there may not be any bagholders in this - that doesn't mean it can't go lower at least intraday. So don't use that as an excuse to not get in as based on today's action and other stock's action like NVFY there are other factors at work that can let a stock fade given the proper setup.
CRBP: I shorted this on the stuff move in the morning. It went a bit higher and I stopped out before I would have actually gotten stopped out which PnL wise is ok but process wise is bad since I gave up on it while it was still valid just because it didn't work right away. It ended up going to the prior highs and that was the top. I should have been more keenly aware of that and retried it. Again, I figured the same thing as #2 with AUPH - it's up here and there's no selling pressure. But that isn't a valid theory as these stocks almost always go back down at some point. Very few RENs take place. Another thing is just because it stuffs doesn't mean it's the top of course. But given the circumstances it was a good attempt and maybe I should have used the prior highs as risk. That would be giving it a lot of room though. Either way I thought about shorting it at multiple points later on when it had flushed from the lows and when it got under vwap. Both times would have worked.
SCYX: Nothing to add to this - shorted vwap pop and covered at a nice spot at r/g. Only reason I didn't do more size was because of ssr but it had good volume so it shouldn't have been an issue.
NUGT: I shorted it because it looked weak and it was under vwap and had a good pattern. I gave it to .80s over/under. I put a breakeven stop and I thought I heard news or something perhaps the oil numbers at that point so I just got out when my stop was triggered. It ended up working had I given it more room but so be it. I don't think I would have made any money on it though since I had a bid near the premkt flush lows and it never got to it and it quickly reversed. Not sure if there is a lesson here - I did prematurely stop out but I thought the news just announced might affect it and I didn't want a headache.
GNK: I am proud of the way I traded this. Basically I saw the stuffs and the level 2 games going on. I shorted near the highs and it looked like it was going to breakout a few times but I said no what ifs for this and put my bid near vwap which I figured if it flushed was the guaranteed money and from there I wasn't sure what would happen. I saw the level 2 games where it looks like it's about to breakout then the huge offers come in and that's it - it did it a few times but I knew what was going on. Later on I avoided it given the daily chart and the float and that shorts are still stuck. I did see a lot of volume come in later in the day around 8 and thought about putting a short on there but decided against it. It wasn't huge volume and given it had held trend so well and it was day 1 I wasn't going to fight it. Only if it had some lower highs and peaked the main 7.60 level. Eventually it got under vwap and I thought about shorting it at vwap but I figured it would just hover around vwap and that would be it. It did go lower but it's ok. I am glad I avoided it and it was a good process - there were a lot of things that could have kept this going.
NTNX: I originally wanted to short it early in the morning when it looked like it was peaking vwap and looked weak. It worked for a minute as it made new lows but then came right back and went higher. But I never traded that. Later on, I tried a short when it went red and looked to be peaking. But it was holding up and looked like it reclaimed a small level of support and the volume wasn't too great. I did prematurely exit for a very tiny loss but didn't want to get caught in a spike upward. This is sounding very what if-ish and that is true. My thesis was if it was still red and weak then it could roll over even more. It's tough to say what to do because I had my thesis but the price action was meh. Giving it enough room probably would have meant stopping out near the highs but it never looked like it was holding r/g until later on and even then it went back under again. Basically this was just chop and should be avoided with the low volume.
Other stocks: TWTR: Wanted to short due to pattern but didn't due to potential headline risk - worked out. CLVS - same thing didn't want to take the trade due to headline risk. NXPI - was a good idea with the 105 short - wish I did it.
Things to work on:
1. Headline risk in most cases like TWTR and CLVS aren't good excuses to not get into a stock. ENH was still in my mind but that is a completely different scenario.
2. Work on getting back into a trade at key levels like CRBP and AUPH.
3. Even if a stock is at highs that doesn't mean it can't go lower at least intraday for that day. So that isn't a good reason to avoid a stock either.
4. Don't trade when it's low volume and possible chop.
AUPH: I got a decent short entry in the morning because it looked like it stuffed and held below the prior resistance in premkt. I stopped out when it made new highs. Later on I saw that it made a penny above all time highs and thought about shorting there which ended up being the top but decided against it. Later on after it dipped and ripped it kept stuffing so I thought about shorting it then but thought that there were no bagholders in the stock and that it was only potentially shorts in it. But that didn't stop it from going lower though. So overall a few things here: 1. I could have potentially added to AUPH by looking at the longer time frame chart and based my risk on that all time high. Or I could have shorted it again higher. The reason I didn't was because of #2. 2. Even though a stock is at highs and there may not be any bagholders in this - that doesn't mean it can't go lower at least intraday. So don't use that as an excuse to not get in as based on today's action and other stock's action like NVFY there are other factors at work that can let a stock fade given the proper setup.
CRBP: I shorted this on the stuff move in the morning. It went a bit higher and I stopped out before I would have actually gotten stopped out which PnL wise is ok but process wise is bad since I gave up on it while it was still valid just because it didn't work right away. It ended up going to the prior highs and that was the top. I should have been more keenly aware of that and retried it. Again, I figured the same thing as #2 with AUPH - it's up here and there's no selling pressure. But that isn't a valid theory as these stocks almost always go back down at some point. Very few RENs take place. Another thing is just because it stuffs doesn't mean it's the top of course. But given the circumstances it was a good attempt and maybe I should have used the prior highs as risk. That would be giving it a lot of room though. Either way I thought about shorting it at multiple points later on when it had flushed from the lows and when it got under vwap. Both times would have worked.
SCYX: Nothing to add to this - shorted vwap pop and covered at a nice spot at r/g. Only reason I didn't do more size was because of ssr but it had good volume so it shouldn't have been an issue.
NUGT: I shorted it because it looked weak and it was under vwap and had a good pattern. I gave it to .80s over/under. I put a breakeven stop and I thought I heard news or something perhaps the oil numbers at that point so I just got out when my stop was triggered. It ended up working had I given it more room but so be it. I don't think I would have made any money on it though since I had a bid near the premkt flush lows and it never got to it and it quickly reversed. Not sure if there is a lesson here - I did prematurely stop out but I thought the news just announced might affect it and I didn't want a headache.
GNK: I am proud of the way I traded this. Basically I saw the stuffs and the level 2 games going on. I shorted near the highs and it looked like it was going to breakout a few times but I said no what ifs for this and put my bid near vwap which I figured if it flushed was the guaranteed money and from there I wasn't sure what would happen. I saw the level 2 games where it looks like it's about to breakout then the huge offers come in and that's it - it did it a few times but I knew what was going on. Later on I avoided it given the daily chart and the float and that shorts are still stuck. I did see a lot of volume come in later in the day around 8 and thought about putting a short on there but decided against it. It wasn't huge volume and given it had held trend so well and it was day 1 I wasn't going to fight it. Only if it had some lower highs and peaked the main 7.60 level. Eventually it got under vwap and I thought about shorting it at vwap but I figured it would just hover around vwap and that would be it. It did go lower but it's ok. I am glad I avoided it and it was a good process - there were a lot of things that could have kept this going.
NTNX: I originally wanted to short it early in the morning when it looked like it was peaking vwap and looked weak. It worked for a minute as it made new lows but then came right back and went higher. But I never traded that. Later on, I tried a short when it went red and looked to be peaking. But it was holding up and looked like it reclaimed a small level of support and the volume wasn't too great. I did prematurely exit for a very tiny loss but didn't want to get caught in a spike upward. This is sounding very what if-ish and that is true. My thesis was if it was still red and weak then it could roll over even more. It's tough to say what to do because I had my thesis but the price action was meh. Giving it enough room probably would have meant stopping out near the highs but it never looked like it was holding r/g until later on and even then it went back under again. Basically this was just chop and should be avoided with the low volume.
Other stocks: TWTR: Wanted to short due to pattern but didn't due to potential headline risk - worked out. CLVS - same thing didn't want to take the trade due to headline risk. NXPI - was a good idea with the 105 short - wish I did it.
Things to work on:
1. Headline risk in most cases like TWTR and CLVS aren't good excuses to not get into a stock. ENH was still in my mind but that is a completely different scenario.
2. Work on getting back into a trade at key levels like CRBP and AUPH.
3. Even if a stock is at highs that doesn't mean it can't go lower at least intraday for that day. So that isn't a good reason to avoid a stock either.
4. Don't trade when it's low volume and possible chop.
Wednesday, October 5, 2016
Trading Recap 10/5/16
Today was a good day with decent profits that could have been more had I waited a few minutes to cover my NTNX short but no big deal. Honestly was not expecting that huge of a wash. I traded three things today: NUGT, NTNX, and CRBP.
My first trade was NUGT - I bought the dip after it had a nice push thinking nugt could bounce but then some news came out and it flushed. It wasn't so bad at least and I got out before it went much lower so overall it was ok. I saw it later in the day and it had reclaimed support and thought about going long but never did. No lessons here except it would have been nice to get long on the reclaim later in the day but I didn't want to bother with it.
NTNX: A few things to learn from here. I shorted after it went back under vwap. I saw it had the failed breakout near 41s and when it came under vwap I had a hunch it was weak. I didn't have much confidence in this but it was a hunch I wanted to act on, nonetheless. I saw what TTD did and figured this can to. Here are some lessons though: Don't look at the minute level 2 action. I put a stop at 39.70s that almost got filled before I cut it off because the .70s were holding a bit and I wanted to say screw it with the low volume. I canceled and just said fuck it I'll let it play out. The other thing was the what ifs came again but I held firm and told myself no more of that. The confidence gained by this trade helped with that regard for sure. My cover was early of course in hindsight but so be it. That's easy enough to fix. As far as adding, I didn't really want to add although it broke the uptrend line - at the time there wasn't much volume and didn't want an ssr spike to deal with. Later on it looked weak and stuffed so I thought about shorting it then but didn't. At that time I would have stopped out but then when it went red again I tried a few times getting filled but didn't and it faded another $2..
CRBP: I avoided shorting this for the most part because I figured it could go parabolic or something. There wasn't much volume in the 9.30s/40s when it started to breakout and that is where I thought it would have a failed breakout but it made new highs. Then it washed pretty hard. I still wasn't sure about it then because it could have just gotten some longs out and continued higher. But after it had a good pattern of lower highs I figured it could wash to under vwap. I shorted with the idea of adding at the higher end of the small consolidation if it got there but it never did and just flushed from where I shorted it. I got a good cover this time and figured it wouldn't just disintegrate. Overall nice trade here and nothing to really comment from.
Things to work on:
1. You have good ideas consistently. Time to act on them.
2. The level 2 sometimes helps you and sometimes doesn't. It almost screwed you this time by making you cover way too early but it helped last time you shorted NTNX when the bids were absorbing. Honestly, it is a toss up so stick to your original plan in most cases.
3. No what ifs - they are deadly.
My first trade was NUGT - I bought the dip after it had a nice push thinking nugt could bounce but then some news came out and it flushed. It wasn't so bad at least and I got out before it went much lower so overall it was ok. I saw it later in the day and it had reclaimed support and thought about going long but never did. No lessons here except it would have been nice to get long on the reclaim later in the day but I didn't want to bother with it.
NTNX: A few things to learn from here. I shorted after it went back under vwap. I saw it had the failed breakout near 41s and when it came under vwap I had a hunch it was weak. I didn't have much confidence in this but it was a hunch I wanted to act on, nonetheless. I saw what TTD did and figured this can to. Here are some lessons though: Don't look at the minute level 2 action. I put a stop at 39.70s that almost got filled before I cut it off because the .70s were holding a bit and I wanted to say screw it with the low volume. I canceled and just said fuck it I'll let it play out. The other thing was the what ifs came again but I held firm and told myself no more of that. The confidence gained by this trade helped with that regard for sure. My cover was early of course in hindsight but so be it. That's easy enough to fix. As far as adding, I didn't really want to add although it broke the uptrend line - at the time there wasn't much volume and didn't want an ssr spike to deal with. Later on it looked weak and stuffed so I thought about shorting it then but didn't. At that time I would have stopped out but then when it went red again I tried a few times getting filled but didn't and it faded another $2..
CRBP: I avoided shorting this for the most part because I figured it could go parabolic or something. There wasn't much volume in the 9.30s/40s when it started to breakout and that is where I thought it would have a failed breakout but it made new highs. Then it washed pretty hard. I still wasn't sure about it then because it could have just gotten some longs out and continued higher. But after it had a good pattern of lower highs I figured it could wash to under vwap. I shorted with the idea of adding at the higher end of the small consolidation if it got there but it never did and just flushed from where I shorted it. I got a good cover this time and figured it wouldn't just disintegrate. Overall nice trade here and nothing to really comment from.
Things to work on:
1. You have good ideas consistently. Time to act on them.
2. The level 2 sometimes helps you and sometimes doesn't. It almost screwed you this time by making you cover way too early but it helped last time you shorted NTNX when the bids were absorbing. Honestly, it is a toss up so stick to your original plan in most cases.
3. No what ifs - they are deadly.
Tuesday, October 4, 2016
New direction of blog going forward
I decided to take the blog in a different direction going forward for now. I realized that the in depth analysis I do for each of my trades has served its purpose and laid the foundation for me. But now it is starting to become detrimental due to the big focus it puts on my trading. What I mean by that is instead of just going with the process of the trades - it made me focus on the results and thus care more about the money. All the lessons I have at the end of each day are pretty much the same and the same things afflicted me today as well. Going forward I will just put a brief summary of what could have been better and that is it. Doing all this work after the market closes is leading to burnout both mentally and helping lead to emotional burnout. Staring at charts isn't going to help me anymore. My ideas are ok and risk management is good (too good)- sure they can get better but it's good enough. It's just the psychology that is affecting me - not the lack of setups or whatever.
Therefore, here are some overall themes I should be focused on with trading.
1. You need to be cautiously reckless - risk management tied with sizing in appropriately. If you want this to be your sole income you need to make money. My ideas are solid enough where I am confident with them and sizing up a little bit and seeing what happens. SIZE INTO THE BEST!
2. No what ifs!! - This affected you today and has affected you for a while.You cannot be afraid of losing money which is where these what ifs stem from. Detach yourself from the money and don't give a fuck. As you size up you will be taking more risk but that is the only way to learn and grow.
3. Give things enough room to work. Add higher/lower if need be and if within risk parameters.
4. Thesis > minute price action
5. Don't stop out of the initial size when the initial position's stop hasn't been triggered.
6. YOU CAN'T PREDICT EVERYTHING AND YOU WILL HAVE LOSERS! YOU WILL HAVE SOME SMALL-MEDIUM LOSSES AND THAT IS FINE! YOUR WINNERS WILL PAY FOR EVERYTHING AND MORE IF YOU SIZE UP!
7. Just because something similar happened in another stock in a different scenario doesn't mean it means the same thing again in this new scenario.
8. Be patient on entry and exit. But don't take this to the extreme and wait for the super-duper best setup you can have ultra low risk on. A lot of the time you may not get what you want exactly (like a pop right next to vwap) but it will be close and if you like the setup then just fucking take it and give it the room. You're not going to get the top and bottom of a stock so stop worrying about it and making yourself have all these decisions that lead to burnout.
--
Overall things for mindset to avoid emotional burnout:
1. Positive self-talk. You are a trader trying to trade well. That is extremely hard to do so don't get hard on yourself for fuckups. At least you are trying.
2. Reframing the situation.
3. Don't obsess over the money. No need for money = no expectations = no frustration.
YOU MUST HAVE THE DISCIPLINE TO GO THROUGH WITH WHAT IS MENTIONED ABOVE OR YOU WILL FACE THE PAIN OF REGRET/DISAPPOINTMENT.
Therefore, here are some overall themes I should be focused on with trading.
1. You need to be cautiously reckless - risk management tied with sizing in appropriately. If you want this to be your sole income you need to make money. My ideas are solid enough where I am confident with them and sizing up a little bit and seeing what happens. SIZE INTO THE BEST!
2. No what ifs!! - This affected you today and has affected you for a while.You cannot be afraid of losing money which is where these what ifs stem from. Detach yourself from the money and don't give a fuck. As you size up you will be taking more risk but that is the only way to learn and grow.
3. Give things enough room to work. Add higher/lower if need be and if within risk parameters.
4. Thesis > minute price action
5. Don't stop out of the initial size when the initial position's stop hasn't been triggered.
6. YOU CAN'T PREDICT EVERYTHING AND YOU WILL HAVE LOSERS! YOU WILL HAVE SOME SMALL-MEDIUM LOSSES AND THAT IS FINE! YOUR WINNERS WILL PAY FOR EVERYTHING AND MORE IF YOU SIZE UP!
7. Just because something similar happened in another stock in a different scenario doesn't mean it means the same thing again in this new scenario.
8. Be patient on entry and exit. But don't take this to the extreme and wait for the super-duper best setup you can have ultra low risk on. A lot of the time you may not get what you want exactly (like a pop right next to vwap) but it will be close and if you like the setup then just fucking take it and give it the room. You're not going to get the top and bottom of a stock so stop worrying about it and making yourself have all these decisions that lead to burnout.
--
Overall things for mindset to avoid emotional burnout:
1. Positive self-talk. You are a trader trying to trade well. That is extremely hard to do so don't get hard on yourself for fuckups. At least you are trying.
2. Reframing the situation.
3. Don't obsess over the money. No need for money = no expectations = no frustration.
YOU MUST HAVE THE DISCIPLINE TO GO THROUGH WITH WHAT IS MENTIONED ABOVE OR YOU WILL FACE THE PAIN OF REGRET/DISAPPOINTMENT.
Monday, October 3, 2016
Trading Recap 10/3/16
Today was a slightly profitable day. It could have been a lot more with NTNX and the correct reads I had on it that I never acted on but shoulda coulda woulda. I do need to be alert during the session for potential moves - especially longs like NTNX before it had its run. I have been experimenting with 2 or 3 min candles since I did miss the stuff on VHC that was easily seen with the 2min vs. the 3min but when looking at past charts it's hard to say which wins - if either wins. They both have pros and cons. Due to my personality I rather see less I think so I think I will stick with 3min vs. 2min but in certain situations I'll switch.
VHC: I traded this in premarket due to the stuffs and lower highs. I figured that it would be another SEED because with the news being iffy and looking at past history on the daily it is a good candidate to fade. I took it off in premarket when it was holding up and I didn't want to be in it at the open. At the open it did wash a bit but then it recollected and pushed to 5. Using the 3 min chart it was hard to see what was going on but I wouldn't have shorted it up there anyway either way. On the 2min it did stuff nicely under vwap and you could have shorted it there. With the 3min it did have a big wash and then the next pop was ok, obviously this is all in hindsight but it's hard to say exactly. On the 1min it did have a volume push which would have been good to short into but it looked exactly like ARRY did on day 1 so. Obviously overall thesis > price action and not everything is going to work out perfectly - there is no holy grail of candlesticks settings that only shows you the best. Later in the day I saw it perk above its consolidation area and thought it would be a good short but didn't pull the trigger unfortunately. Then towards the end of the day it had a nice run on volume that I shorted into. It worked for a bit but I saw a huge offer where I had shorted before and figured it would be jammed into there then it could go lower. My breakeven stop got triggered and I got out for flat at the offer and then I reshorted after there wasn't much followthrough after the offer was eaten. It didn't do much and I covered at the close. Not sure if there's a lesson here other than thesis > minute price action of course.
ARIA: This had failed followthrough so I shorted. It worked for a bit and I never added which in the end it wouldn't have mattered but I still would have liked to. Anyway I was being patient but it just made a higher high so I got out. It didn't do much the rest of the day. I thought about shorting it later in the day as it looked weak again but it never made new lows.
NTNX: The only trade on this was after I saw it double top and come off and then have a good pattern for a short + the offers were absorbing a lot. So I shorted in front of the offer but the bids wouldn't budge so I just scalped out for a small profit. When it had a higher low afterwards though I should have known to get long as it was just like ACIA on day 1. Later on it started grinding higher and I said I'll short it when it goes parabolic. Maybe I could have gone long before that. Obviously it may not work all the time but it worked here. Anyway it went parabolic and I was about to short it but there was no clear volume indicator and of course there was the what if it goes another dollar. I didn't want the headache although I did see where the top potentially was on the 1min where it had more volume to move it 30 cents or so than when it did to move $1. After the flush I thought about longing it for a scalp which would have worked but the what if it drops more came in and it's hard to risk off of anything. Later on it consolidated and the offers were absorbing and it might have stuffed a bit on the 1/2min but it wasn't enough to go off of. I would have been pissed had I shorted on that and it didn't work since the stuff like that doesn't mean much and I wasn't sure if it had washed everyone out and could continue higher or whatever. But the offers absorbing added a bit of credibility to it although it absorbed when I shorted it in the morning and it didn't mean anything in the longrun. The only last trade in it was at vwap for a long but I wanted it to go lower first then reclaim vwap but that never happened. Overall, some things worked and some didn't as far as my ideas. Hard to say overall but in different scenarios the same thing can mean everything or nothing so again: thesis > price action.
Things to work on:
1. Thesis > price action.
2. Think who is doing what and which side needs to have some panic in it for them. For instance, on NTNX it was overall a strong IPO but the chasers needed to be washed out and there weren't too many shorts. When it was consolidating after it made that big wash candle there was still room to go for them to be washed out. Once it got to vwap it was ok and the strong IPO stock could continue being strong. Same thing with NVFY today - the longs had no reason to panic and while it washed out the longs who came in before - the prior longs had no reason to sell thus it went higher. There were no prior bagholders on the longer term chart that would sell.
VHC: I traded this in premarket due to the stuffs and lower highs. I figured that it would be another SEED because with the news being iffy and looking at past history on the daily it is a good candidate to fade. I took it off in premarket when it was holding up and I didn't want to be in it at the open. At the open it did wash a bit but then it recollected and pushed to 5. Using the 3 min chart it was hard to see what was going on but I wouldn't have shorted it up there anyway either way. On the 2min it did stuff nicely under vwap and you could have shorted it there. With the 3min it did have a big wash and then the next pop was ok, obviously this is all in hindsight but it's hard to say exactly. On the 1min it did have a volume push which would have been good to short into but it looked exactly like ARRY did on day 1 so. Obviously overall thesis > price action and not everything is going to work out perfectly - there is no holy grail of candlesticks settings that only shows you the best. Later in the day I saw it perk above its consolidation area and thought it would be a good short but didn't pull the trigger unfortunately. Then towards the end of the day it had a nice run on volume that I shorted into. It worked for a bit but I saw a huge offer where I had shorted before and figured it would be jammed into there then it could go lower. My breakeven stop got triggered and I got out for flat at the offer and then I reshorted after there wasn't much followthrough after the offer was eaten. It didn't do much and I covered at the close. Not sure if there's a lesson here other than thesis > minute price action of course.
ARIA: This had failed followthrough so I shorted. It worked for a bit and I never added which in the end it wouldn't have mattered but I still would have liked to. Anyway I was being patient but it just made a higher high so I got out. It didn't do much the rest of the day. I thought about shorting it later in the day as it looked weak again but it never made new lows.
NTNX: The only trade on this was after I saw it double top and come off and then have a good pattern for a short + the offers were absorbing a lot. So I shorted in front of the offer but the bids wouldn't budge so I just scalped out for a small profit. When it had a higher low afterwards though I should have known to get long as it was just like ACIA on day 1. Later on it started grinding higher and I said I'll short it when it goes parabolic. Maybe I could have gone long before that. Obviously it may not work all the time but it worked here. Anyway it went parabolic and I was about to short it but there was no clear volume indicator and of course there was the what if it goes another dollar. I didn't want the headache although I did see where the top potentially was on the 1min where it had more volume to move it 30 cents or so than when it did to move $1. After the flush I thought about longing it for a scalp which would have worked but the what if it drops more came in and it's hard to risk off of anything. Later on it consolidated and the offers were absorbing and it might have stuffed a bit on the 1/2min but it wasn't enough to go off of. I would have been pissed had I shorted on that and it didn't work since the stuff like that doesn't mean much and I wasn't sure if it had washed everyone out and could continue higher or whatever. But the offers absorbing added a bit of credibility to it although it absorbed when I shorted it in the morning and it didn't mean anything in the longrun. The only last trade in it was at vwap for a long but I wanted it to go lower first then reclaim vwap but that never happened. Overall, some things worked and some didn't as far as my ideas. Hard to say overall but in different scenarios the same thing can mean everything or nothing so again: thesis > price action.
Things to work on:
1. Thesis > price action.
2. Think who is doing what and which side needs to have some panic in it for them. For instance, on NTNX it was overall a strong IPO but the chasers needed to be washed out and there weren't too many shorts. When it was consolidating after it made that big wash candle there was still room to go for them to be washed out. Once it got to vwap it was ok and the strong IPO stock could continue being strong. Same thing with NVFY today - the longs had no reason to panic and while it washed out the longs who came in before - the prior longs had no reason to sell thus it went higher. There were no prior bagholders on the longer term chart that would sell.
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