Friday was a frustrating day for sure with some decent losses but it really gave me the impetus to look at myself and what I am doing and what is wrong. I think I figured some things out out of pure disgust with myself and how I have been trading. A lot of it comes down to overthinking and especially overthinking about the chances of me being hired are and me trading around that instead of just trading normally. I decided to employ visualization techniques to help me with this. So for now I am visualizing that I am already hired and how I would be trading if I was hired. What I visualize will become reality. In addition, I have learned that I have been taking VWAP too literally which is another tendency of mine so I will be using it dramatically less. I haven't decided if I will completely get rid of it on my charts or just keep it there and disregard it except for certain scenarios. I also have to dramatically change the way I look at a setup and the outcome that will result from it. I can't say "yeah, it might work but it might not work either". That is 100% useless and counterproductive to trading well. Of course it might not fucking work but if there is a good chance that it will and it aligns with your system and it meets your parameters then fuck it. One last thing that will help is also utilizing the higher timeframes before. What may look "ok" on the 2min may not look so good on the 5min - this goes along with what an actual high or low will be for the stock. A lot of the time I end up shorting on the way up of a stock coming off from a low because it looks like a lower high on the lower timeframes. So these are the things going forward that I will implement. There is a quote that goes along the lines of "Humans only change when they have to". So out of pure disgust with myself I have to change. If I have another setup that I like and meets all my parameters and I don't take it then I'll be even more disgusted with myself.
Things to note for each trade:
MCK: Stocks that just keep fading from post/pre mkt into the open have a near 100% chance of just continuing to fade right out of the open. I didn't short it although I wanted to but it never really popped. Next time I will just short at the open. The trade I did make was a short against vwap. Lesson here is to not pay attention to vwap like this. It also had the inverse pattern of what I look for on the short side so it was a good long here instead. VWAP shouldn't be used to pick bottoms/tops like this. I ignored price action that said higher lows just because it went near vwap.
CRUS: I was interested in this due to the strong earnings and based on the daily it likes to gap and go all day on earnings. It didn't provide an entry until later on when it had a nice perking pattern. Before that it did for to the $55 support area which I was thinking of buying and giving it to 54.60s or 55 over/under. I was afraid that it could keep falling so that goes back to what I mentioned above. But anyway later on it had a nice pattern so I bought on the breakout which I thought could be a stuff/failed breakout. But I was more convinced with the overall picture of the trade so that is why I did it. It ended up dipping back to the support area and I didn't give it enough room so I got out. I have it to the slight higher low on the 1min which ended up being not enough room and instead it flushed out to the main support. It recollected itself and then formed another higher low which looked pretty good so I tried again and gave it to that higher low figuring if it went below that then it wouldn't work. I got it this time and it made new highs but then came off and triggered my breakeven stop. It ended up going to where my target was on the trade and topping out there. So what I could have done was realize I was buying a breakout and it might need to dip so buy a partial and then add on the dip lower with low risk on the add and then add on the higher low perhaps and move the stop to there. As for the breakeven stop getting triggered, it's tough but the breakeven stop comes from the desire to not lose money which I must get rid of. The other thing to learn from is that stocks can do anything and they can make a new high and look like it failed and wash out and then go higher afterwards.
TSLA: I had a thesis this would go lower so my plan was any lower highs to short. My plan could have been to either short pops if it peaked under premkt support or start in if it went to the resistance from the afternoon on the prior day. It didn't get exactly to that level so I may have missed the short there but it went red and it had a very good pattern. I put in an offer slightly above where it was consolidating and figured it might pop above it to scare people and then go lower. I was thinking too much and trying to get one step in front of the algos or whatever. I was also thinking this might not work when instead everything pointed to it going lower. This is what I mentioned before that I have to fix - it can't just be "oh it might work or it might not". Anyway, I shorted at vwap later on and near resistance and it worked for a bit but I wanted to be patient because I thought a bigger move to 200 was happening. That didn't happen and it just reclaimed and went higher instead. My breakeven stop got triggered here. It could have gone lower after triggering it but it didn't in this case. Anything could have happened of course but it made a fake low and then rebounded so just shorting at vwap might not have been the best thing. It definitely could have worked though.
GRVY: Just don't look at the 1/2min charts - see that it is barely above vwap and then go long thinking it will go higher because "it reclaimed vwap" when really it was just the top of a high on higher timeframes. Taking things way too literally.
Other stocks:
GNCA: Was afraid to short since it was the only thing running at the time but it just shit like the rest. Here is vwap plays a part and I was ready to short at vwap around 4 but was too afraid. That ended up being a nice top.
ACIA: Was thinking about shorting it at the highs and seeing
if it continues from there. Later on I saw a big stuff and just didn't
get in due to not getting the absolute best price but I should just get
if it's not too late. It wouldn't have been a big deal risking where I
saw it to the stuff. So lesson there is to just get in. Also, I just
noticed that pattern again on ACIA before it faded even more. BE
ATTENTIVE! And look at the overall picture - there were times it went a
little below a consolidation level and came back and I thought that was
it but it ended up being nothing. Sometimes they work and sometimes they
don't.
BIDU: Had bad earnings but stock went up. Thought about shorting but BWLD didn't work so well but here it worked and it gave a nice pattern on decent volume at the top.
Things to work on:
1. New mindset
2. Disregard vwap in most cases
3. Using higher timeframes to establish highs and lows
4. No more "it might or might not work"
5. Just get in and don't play around with offers/bids
6. Stay on the lookout for patterns.
7. Just because something happened in one scenario doesn't mean it will in this one
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