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Friday, March 11, 2016

Trading Recap 3/11/16

If anybody who actually reads the blog thought I was dead or stopped trading, don't worry. I'm still here kicking. The reasons I haven't traded in the past month are due to 1. exams (fuck them) 2. my sleeping problem (in the process of being fixed now that I know what caused them - if anybody has problems staying asleep and smokes weed contact me).

Anyway, I had my first trade today in a month. It was a loser that I didn't care about (not caring about wins or losses anymore and I can truly say that now - it feels great although obviously I want to be profitable). I am much more calm now during trades which is what I wanted to work on and I had no hesitation of getting into a trade and flipping the opposite way when the trend revealed itself (didn't get filled on the flip - was .01 away but I could have been profitable on the day had I been filled). The supplements I have been taking (in the journey of figuring out what my sleep problem was caused by) are not only essential for the body to function to its fullest potential but it has made me so much calmer and focused on getting things done. I noticed that a lot of the good traders out there are good despite their natural tendencies. I believe trading can be really optimal when you have worked on yourself first and calmed your emotions. Then from there the trading process can become more interesting.

White arrow is entry followed by exit.

VCEL: I missed the morning emotion short due to waking up a bit later than I wanted to trade (sleep not 100% there but getting there quickly). However, I noticed a nice pattern of higher lows and consolidation and I thought that shorts were trapped from chasing in the .40s and .50s. It looked very good to me and while I knew at the time it was sort of a chase, I had no problem with risking .60 o/u with the size I had. I started in 4.80 because I thought it could go higher right away or soon. Like I said, I was comfortable with it retesting lower if it had to. It may have stuffed through .90 a little (wasn't convincing so I still kept the long). I should have sold sooner but I wanted to give it some room but I think the better play would have been to just sell and get out. Fast forward, after I stopped out I wanted to flip short since it looked ready to crack and .55s were peaking. I almost got filled at .53 but didn't and then it just snapped and that was it.

Reflecting again on the trade has made me realize I should have shorted after lower highs instead of going long (not due to hindsight bias). The reason for this is while I was coming up with an idea of what was happening with all the participants of the trade, I just assumed a long bias instead of working things out. For example, I figured that shorts who chased in the .40s were getting squeezed and that was all the move upward was. The shorts from the prior day were already squeezed out from that panic move in the morning. If it was just the shorts from the .40s getting squeezed then that won't cause it to make new highs. A lot of shorts would have to be trapped for that to happen. Since that was the result of a smaller squeeze, I should short into that when the lower highs happened after it topped in the .90s. 


Things to work on:

1. If you are unsure just get out. You can always get back in.