There was a lot of opportunity today that I unfortunately missed out on, although I did have size in one name at one point and was trying to be patient but my thesis about the overall trend proved wrong so I got out for flat. I was up for the day but nowhere near what I was up unrealized. I really had the conviction to stay in full size for what I thought would be a decent move in my direction but maybe for now I should at least take some off at certain spots just to pay myself as mentioned before. It is better to have some profit than none at all I guess. Other than that, there were times where I was afraid to pull the trigger once in the morning which would have been a huge gain but I guess I snapped out of that later on.
UWTI: I originally thought that we would get an all day fade in oil because a lot of the move seemed priced in and I thought there would be people chasing the move. In addition OPEC doesn't have to follow any agreements made and history has shown this so overall I thought it would be a sell the news scenario. While there hasn't been an OPEC deal in many years, I thought the markets would discount the face value of the meeting much more. I was initially hesitant right at the open to do anything because I wanted to see more clues. I saw it was under the premarket support and peaking which was ok. What got me in was the fake high at the time above vwap and then it starting to come off. I knew the OPEC meeting was at 10am so I thought at that time things would start fading. I wanted to be in before then in case we got a big flush. I put my stop at breakeven in case there was a spike up. Before the meeting though, my stop got triggered and I was out but it started to run into 10AM anyway and never really looked back. Overall, my bias was wrong for sure but I wasn't so stubborn to stick with it. I was open to anything happening but I gave it a shot. While my breakeven stop might have been due to a fear of losing money, I just put it in case there was a spike up in the hopes of getting filled early. No lesson here I think. You had a thesis and you gave it a shot.
OAS: This was the stock that I was up a decent amount on but ended up going flat on it. Firstly, I missed the big spike right at the open for an easy scalp. I thought about shorting it when it was under vwap but didn't think that would he a good entry and rather have waited for a better idea of what was going on or at least a better price. When OAS was making a nHOD past the stuff at the open, it didn't seem to have much followthrough so I tried shorting some size and giving it a few cents thinking it made its fake breakout and could then go lower. But I was stupid and gave it a few cents only instead of giving it a bit more because I was essentially predicting this would be a fake breakout while it was happening, so I didn't know how high it could go. So I ended up stopping out 2 cents from the high at that time. Then I saw it starting to come off and I saw a random big bid so I figured that would be my trigger to get back in with risk to HOD. I had less size this time of course but I got in. I thought we could get an all day fade so I was looking to short pops along the way for a bigger picture idea. Another thing to note is that the stock offered a perfect setup of when it actually faded instead of anticipating what was going to happen like I did. While it was hovering around my price I thought about taking it off but I let it go to see what would happen. I didn't want to get scared out for no reason. Don't be afraid of losses and the minute action at the beginning of the trade doesn't matter. Anyway, it started to fade off and it got under vwap. I decided to add on a pop to vwap. When I added I was a little nervous because I didn't want to ruin the profit I had but I knew I was confident in it at the time and I had to size in when I could. It was a decent entry and it came off from there so I thought that was it. But it just went to the same low as before and started rebounding and hit my breakeven stop and never looked back. I knew that if it was going to fade in the manner I thought, it shouldn't get back to my price. So while I had ok entries my thesis didn't pan out. Later on I saw OAS flagging and thought about buying when it broke above the trendline but that never worked for me since it would get rejected right away and it was a bad entry unless it just kept going up. That is what this did though and while it would have been a nice profit, it's tough to know that it would just keep going like it did and not dip first or something. Lessons: Don't predict, react. It's tough to say whether to take profits or not at quicker intervals on something like this but like I said in the intro, some profit is better than nothing I suppose. Don't be afraid of losses.
CRC: Big miss in the morning. My mistake was not seeing the short % float in the morning on all these oil names and realizing this was one of the more heavily shorted. So this was all a squeeze in the morning. Had I known maybe I wouldn't have to tried to short it but either way.. I thought it was up way too much and then it opened and it ripped. In the 16.40s I thought about shorting it since it seemed so overdone. I was completely right but was afraid it could go higher and was unsure. This was definitely a mistake and a higher probability trade than the other stocks. This faded very nicely and offered opportunity to add along the way. So the mistake of fearing losses and the what if is definitely a big issue that must be worked on more so. I thought about shorting it at vwap or when it got to 15.40 but it never got there right away. It did offer a nice pattern where I did eventually short. Here, I did take half off at the low in case that was it and it was a good thing I did because that was it and I stopped out on the rest. I didn't touch it the rest of the day as I couldn't get a good read on it although it seems like shorts used this as an opportunity to cover because it closed at the highs. I thought this could give up its gap but that was wrong of course. Lessons: Look at short % and same as above, no fear of losses. No hesitation.
SPLK: This was my main winner. I completely missed the morning move but then saw it at vwap and it formed a nice base. I got short some extra size on the base break in case it just faded off. I saw the earnings/guidance were really meh. On the daily chart as well it was gapping into resistance. Earnings stocks with meh guidance and earnings that have these gap ups usually get faded because there are sellers, especially once it gets to an area of nice resistance. So I got stopped out on half my shares because it went back above 60 but then came right back down. It was worth a shot. Maybe I should have given it a few more cents - I'll have to experiment with doing that. I ended up adding again once it broke another base to the downside. Anyway, I took some off when it went to the premarket low and then put a breakeven stop on the rest. It made a bit of a fake low then came back and consolidated and then perked back up above a level where I put my stop so I got out on the rest of my shares. I saw it went back to $60 for a potential reshort but I didn't bother although I thought it could retest the lows from the morning. It did give some opportunities to short later on but I didn't take it but it really outperformed my idea of what it could do because it gave up its entire gap. Lesson: Experiment with the stops over/under a level. Gap up into resistance on non blow out #s are shorts unless they consolidate at higher levels. The reshort later on was worth a shot I guess but whatever.
Things to work on:
1. NO fear / hesitation
2. Take profits in certain scenarios on at least some of your position.
3. Don't predict, react.
4. Earnings gap ups into resistance on non-blow out #s are shorts most of the time.
Wednesday, November 30, 2016
Tuesday, November 29, 2016
Trading Recap 11/29/16
Essentially a flat day (up $1). The funny part (not really) is that I think I traded less well than yesterday. Today had some potential but considering the way I traded I am surprised I wasn't down. Emotions came in today for some reason. I have to be ok with being wrong and taking losses - Trading in the Zone etc. Staying in the present is still a WIP especially in the heat of the moment.
CBMX: Total fuckup in that I ended up flat on this. At the open I saw 4.05/4.10 which was the premkt high absorb a lot of shares. In addition, based on the daily chart every time it gaps up, it just gets faded back. Plus I saw that they had a lot of warrants outstanding etc. So all of this combined made me short biased. So I shorted at 4.05 and got a flush to 3.75 which was the first support level. I had a bid at 3.55 which I thought it could get to (it did and more eventually) but it didn't get hit. It then bounced and made a new high. I have it a little room but with the 5 cent rule, it moves quickly. At this moment, I decided to cut it as I thought 4.05/.10 was THE top and when it went higher it reminded me of yesterday on REPH. I then saw it have big volume and absorbing again so I shorted 4.25 and put a bid at vwap to get me flat on the name and then it flushed lower, hit my bid and then went to 3.55. Later on it did have a push back to the highs, which would have been a nice reshort but I didn't trust it at this point even though it had a nice volume candle. It definitely could have been more bullish at this point so I avoided it. That wasn't the right move as it faded to almost $3 but I'm not so pissed about missing this trade as I really didn't trust it and with the games they were playing with it, I didn't want to bother. But going back to when I did actually trade it and my emotions and thought process.. I was ok with giving it some room but when I saw it get going a bit, I didn't know how much higher it could go before it would possibly fade. Maybe I was sized in a bit much but I was going off the basis that 4.10 was THE top based on how it was trading. After some thinking, I decided that it was ok to have stopped out there given what I knew at that time about the circumstances. Where I covered, that was giving it enough room so the fact that it just didn't work out at that point isn't anything to really do about. However, once it setup again then it was good to get in again. The bad thing was trying to get to flat and trading PnL. Had I not had my bid at vwap but at my original place, once it got under vwap again I could have added and then made decent money when it got to my level. There are a lot of possibilities here like maybe using less size or covering on the first minor wash but given everything I mentioned before, I was pretty confident this could fade and I was right in the longrun so those wouldn't have been good options.
CTSH: My only winner for the day. I was interested in a continued fade from the day before. If it got to an important level from yesterday then I would put on a short and then add to the winner or if it peaked $57 then I would start in and add accordingly. It started off peaking $57 and got under vwap so I shorted when it was around vwap. It went lower and I wanted to add on pops. I missed the fill on my add by a penny and then kept trying to lower it until it wasn't a good entry anymore. At one point the 57.30 bid was absorbing quite a bit of shares. I covered as it ticked up from there in case. While I had a bigger picture idea, that bid would not budge so I did the smart thing and took it off for a profit. It did get under that bid though and I shorted it with bigger size when it got under it. I was going to give it to over/under .30 if it reclaimed. It faded off a bit but then it spiked up. My stop almost triggered but I took it off as it got back under. So one thing to note of course is to give things enough room on these. I saw it consolidating and thought the move was over so I put a stop at a few cents below my price and got out for a tiny gain. At this point I should have been more patient and given it the full range. My PnL dictated that I should take profit even though there was nothing in the way to stop it from going lower besides needing extra time (unlike before with the refreshing bid). I then tried to reshort it on the base break again but was so worried about a few cents for some reason that I covered for flat. It wasn't a good entry of course and I was looking for more followthrough. Had I covered just because it was a bad entry then ok but I was so worried about it and the few cents affecting my PnL which is stupid. So that is the big lesson here and with CBMX. Don't trade PnL, don't have any hesitation or fear, and give things room.
TIF: My main loser for me. I was long biased due to the earnings and thought it could get to the $84ish level based on heavy resistance from the daily chart in the past. It did exactly that but I ended up losing money on this... After it made a little move at the open I decided to put a bid in at around vwap. I should have put my bid much lower because it wasn't far enough in the day to do a vwap bounce and it wasn't high enough to pullback just enough to vwap either. So that was a mistake. I decided I should just get out for flat if I could since at the time I thought it could just peak vwap. This was also stupid. I was stupid with the bid and not bidding lower. Would I have been disappointed if I didn't get filled at a lower price and it went higher? Yeah but looking back as I said, it wasn't a vwap play yet. As mentioned before, disregard vwap at the open besides certain setups. Anyway, I shouldn't have been so trigger happy to sell at breakeven because it did go higher and right to my target. Now, it did pullback later and I had a bid at support because I didn't expect it to fade the way that it ended up doing. I got in at what was at the time a decent price and wanted to be patient for a potential move to the upside again because I thought it would consolidate for most of the day as the earnings were good and IMHO deserved a gap up but that it wouldn't go much higher beyond that resistance. So I would play dips between the range. Unfortunately, it broke under $82 so I sold when that happened. I didn't touch it until I saw another range develop and I saw a refreshing bid at $81.25 so I bought in front of that looking for a move to the topside of the range at least. I still had a positive bias but less so at this point but thought I could get at least a decent scalp out of it. It ended up going lower though and breaking the .25 level. I did give it enough room but the stock seemed pretty weak after giving it enough room to say it wasn't just a fakeout and so I stopped out for a tiny loss. I could have gotten flat I guess if I waited but it's ok. Overall, I played it poorly with the vwap in the morning and then later on my thesis wasn't correct so those stop outs were ok and they were definitely worth a shot in both instances I think.
Things to work on:
1. Give things enough room.
2. No pressure on PnL at all.
3. Stay in the present.
CBMX: Total fuckup in that I ended up flat on this. At the open I saw 4.05/4.10 which was the premkt high absorb a lot of shares. In addition, based on the daily chart every time it gaps up, it just gets faded back. Plus I saw that they had a lot of warrants outstanding etc. So all of this combined made me short biased. So I shorted at 4.05 and got a flush to 3.75 which was the first support level. I had a bid at 3.55 which I thought it could get to (it did and more eventually) but it didn't get hit. It then bounced and made a new high. I have it a little room but with the 5 cent rule, it moves quickly. At this moment, I decided to cut it as I thought 4.05/.10 was THE top and when it went higher it reminded me of yesterday on REPH. I then saw it have big volume and absorbing again so I shorted 4.25 and put a bid at vwap to get me flat on the name and then it flushed lower, hit my bid and then went to 3.55. Later on it did have a push back to the highs, which would have been a nice reshort but I didn't trust it at this point even though it had a nice volume candle. It definitely could have been more bullish at this point so I avoided it. That wasn't the right move as it faded to almost $3 but I'm not so pissed about missing this trade as I really didn't trust it and with the games they were playing with it, I didn't want to bother. But going back to when I did actually trade it and my emotions and thought process.. I was ok with giving it some room but when I saw it get going a bit, I didn't know how much higher it could go before it would possibly fade. Maybe I was sized in a bit much but I was going off the basis that 4.10 was THE top based on how it was trading. After some thinking, I decided that it was ok to have stopped out there given what I knew at that time about the circumstances. Where I covered, that was giving it enough room so the fact that it just didn't work out at that point isn't anything to really do about. However, once it setup again then it was good to get in again. The bad thing was trying to get to flat and trading PnL. Had I not had my bid at vwap but at my original place, once it got under vwap again I could have added and then made decent money when it got to my level. There are a lot of possibilities here like maybe using less size or covering on the first minor wash but given everything I mentioned before, I was pretty confident this could fade and I was right in the longrun so those wouldn't have been good options.
CTSH: My only winner for the day. I was interested in a continued fade from the day before. If it got to an important level from yesterday then I would put on a short and then add to the winner or if it peaked $57 then I would start in and add accordingly. It started off peaking $57 and got under vwap so I shorted when it was around vwap. It went lower and I wanted to add on pops. I missed the fill on my add by a penny and then kept trying to lower it until it wasn't a good entry anymore. At one point the 57.30 bid was absorbing quite a bit of shares. I covered as it ticked up from there in case. While I had a bigger picture idea, that bid would not budge so I did the smart thing and took it off for a profit. It did get under that bid though and I shorted it with bigger size when it got under it. I was going to give it to over/under .30 if it reclaimed. It faded off a bit but then it spiked up. My stop almost triggered but I took it off as it got back under. So one thing to note of course is to give things enough room on these. I saw it consolidating and thought the move was over so I put a stop at a few cents below my price and got out for a tiny gain. At this point I should have been more patient and given it the full range. My PnL dictated that I should take profit even though there was nothing in the way to stop it from going lower besides needing extra time (unlike before with the refreshing bid). I then tried to reshort it on the base break again but was so worried about a few cents for some reason that I covered for flat. It wasn't a good entry of course and I was looking for more followthrough. Had I covered just because it was a bad entry then ok but I was so worried about it and the few cents affecting my PnL which is stupid. So that is the big lesson here and with CBMX. Don't trade PnL, don't have any hesitation or fear, and give things room.
TIF: My main loser for me. I was long biased due to the earnings and thought it could get to the $84ish level based on heavy resistance from the daily chart in the past. It did exactly that but I ended up losing money on this... After it made a little move at the open I decided to put a bid in at around vwap. I should have put my bid much lower because it wasn't far enough in the day to do a vwap bounce and it wasn't high enough to pullback just enough to vwap either. So that was a mistake. I decided I should just get out for flat if I could since at the time I thought it could just peak vwap. This was also stupid. I was stupid with the bid and not bidding lower. Would I have been disappointed if I didn't get filled at a lower price and it went higher? Yeah but looking back as I said, it wasn't a vwap play yet. As mentioned before, disregard vwap at the open besides certain setups. Anyway, I shouldn't have been so trigger happy to sell at breakeven because it did go higher and right to my target. Now, it did pullback later and I had a bid at support because I didn't expect it to fade the way that it ended up doing. I got in at what was at the time a decent price and wanted to be patient for a potential move to the upside again because I thought it would consolidate for most of the day as the earnings were good and IMHO deserved a gap up but that it wouldn't go much higher beyond that resistance. So I would play dips between the range. Unfortunately, it broke under $82 so I sold when that happened. I didn't touch it until I saw another range develop and I saw a refreshing bid at $81.25 so I bought in front of that looking for a move to the topside of the range at least. I still had a positive bias but less so at this point but thought I could get at least a decent scalp out of it. It ended up going lower though and breaking the .25 level. I did give it enough room but the stock seemed pretty weak after giving it enough room to say it wasn't just a fakeout and so I stopped out for a tiny loss. I could have gotten flat I guess if I waited but it's ok. Overall, I played it poorly with the vwap in the morning and then later on my thesis wasn't correct so those stop outs were ok and they were definitely worth a shot in both instances I think.
Things to work on:
1. Give things enough room.
2. No pressure on PnL at all.
3. Stay in the present.
Monday, November 28, 2016
Trading Recap 11/28/16
Today was a good process day that ended up red but that's ok. I would do the trades I took again no problem. My stop outs could use improvement and I have to remember to give things a bit more room on trades based off of level 2 as that might have helped today. Combining the new plays and giving things more room based on the chart should yield good results.
REPH: The news seemed like the prior news last time when it gapped and crapped. It also had lower highs in premarket so overall that made me short biased. At the open, $9 was absorbing on the offer a lot. It was very clear so I shorted against that with a stop at HODs because sometimes it would go past $9 to 9.05 and then come back to $9 offer. It faded 30 cents or so from where I shorted it which was nice but I was looking for more and trying to be patient. It ended up coming back though and breaking out so I stopped out above $9. It was well worth the try though IMO. Later on I tried shorting when it looked like it had stuffed with bigger volume near HODs and the level 2 was showing some clear topping action at 9.70 repeatedly. It looked like it was getting manipulated because a PT increase came out that drove it to $10. I had a plan that if it needed to go through $10 and retest that would be ok because I had less size. However, the $10 test went a bit further than I thought and at that point I didn't know if shorts were getting squeezed due to the PT and it could go higher. I did think about adding but at the time it didn't seem as confirmed, especially with the lack of volume on the breakout above $10. That did end up being the top though. I think some fear got involved of it squeezing higher so that allow me to potentially execute my plan of potentially adding when it got through $10. It's tough in this scenario but like other upgrades, it tends to be the top. I tried some shorts later on where on the chart it wasn't the best area but the level 2 showed it was topping with big offer absorbs. I gave it too tight of a stop though/didn't cover at the right time since it was a chase on the chart. I was up on these trades but when it came back to retest, which I expected, I got stopped out due to not giving it enough room. On these level 2 plays, always give it extra room just in case. Better to size down a little and still be in it vs. getting stopped out with bigger size. That would be the main lesson from this stock.
CTSH: I was right on my thesis but ended up taking a small loss on this due to the whipsaw in the morning. My thesis was the gap would get faded off because the letter and everything it entails: doesn't have to be followed and even if it is followed and it actually does boost the share price, this is all in the future so the gap up seemed a bit much for something like this. I shorted on the $58 break and didn't want to see it get too much above $58 otherwise I would cut it off. Vwap over/under was my guide pretty much since it was near my price. I got a nice flush but it didn't hit my bid unfortunately. After the flush got bought back up, I thought it was suspicious and so just put a stop above $58 since at this point it looked like it could go either way. It did break out a bit over vwap but then got pushed back down and then under. I left it alone after this but it did have nice lower highs the rest of the day and did fade back to my target. Honestly I wasn't sure about it afterwards since it still had higher lows so I chose to avoid it. I'm not sure if there is anything to learn from this I guess. Right idea and decent execution. The chop in the morning and missing the fill screwed with me a bit. I knew to give it a chance at least after it got bought back up since anything can happen but like I said it was definitely fishy. If I reshorted it and it didn't work after it got back under vwap I would have been more pissed than missing it like I did here because I really wasn't sure at this point.
CUBA: I missed the opening short since I was busy with the above two stocks but I tried to get this on pops. It was a low vol stock but I was playing this off the level 2. I saw huge offers come in so I tried to see if they would get filled or not and when I thought they wouldn't I got in front of it. I got stopped out for breakeven and then tried it again at vwap. That worked and then I saw it spray up and come back to $7 offer with huge size. I thought they had gotten everybody out and would drive it lower now so I added in and put a breakeven stop. That got triggered eventually after it looked like it was going to go lower and then it just consolidated the rest of the day. Nothing else to say about this.
Other stocks:
X: I had it on watch in case today was the day it wanted to fade off. Unfortunately I didn't get any of it. I saw it rip r/g but didn't think much of it until it got rejected back down. That was the first time I saw that. I didn't get in although looking back it had a nice pattern that I could have added into to. I then saw it make a fake low on volume but didn't wan to bother going long for a scalp although it worked out. I thought about shorting it if it got back to the high .60s which it did but at that point I thought it would reclaim so I didn't want to bother with that. I guess bad reads on it somewhat or rather bad execution since I was right each time but never got in.
Things to remember:
1. Give things proper room on ALL types of trades.
REPH: The news seemed like the prior news last time when it gapped and crapped. It also had lower highs in premarket so overall that made me short biased. At the open, $9 was absorbing on the offer a lot. It was very clear so I shorted against that with a stop at HODs because sometimes it would go past $9 to 9.05 and then come back to $9 offer. It faded 30 cents or so from where I shorted it which was nice but I was looking for more and trying to be patient. It ended up coming back though and breaking out so I stopped out above $9. It was well worth the try though IMO. Later on I tried shorting when it looked like it had stuffed with bigger volume near HODs and the level 2 was showing some clear topping action at 9.70 repeatedly. It looked like it was getting manipulated because a PT increase came out that drove it to $10. I had a plan that if it needed to go through $10 and retest that would be ok because I had less size. However, the $10 test went a bit further than I thought and at that point I didn't know if shorts were getting squeezed due to the PT and it could go higher. I did think about adding but at the time it didn't seem as confirmed, especially with the lack of volume on the breakout above $10. That did end up being the top though. I think some fear got involved of it squeezing higher so that allow me to potentially execute my plan of potentially adding when it got through $10. It's tough in this scenario but like other upgrades, it tends to be the top. I tried some shorts later on where on the chart it wasn't the best area but the level 2 showed it was topping with big offer absorbs. I gave it too tight of a stop though/didn't cover at the right time since it was a chase on the chart. I was up on these trades but when it came back to retest, which I expected, I got stopped out due to not giving it enough room. On these level 2 plays, always give it extra room just in case. Better to size down a little and still be in it vs. getting stopped out with bigger size. That would be the main lesson from this stock.
CTSH: I was right on my thesis but ended up taking a small loss on this due to the whipsaw in the morning. My thesis was the gap would get faded off because the letter and everything it entails: doesn't have to be followed and even if it is followed and it actually does boost the share price, this is all in the future so the gap up seemed a bit much for something like this. I shorted on the $58 break and didn't want to see it get too much above $58 otherwise I would cut it off. Vwap over/under was my guide pretty much since it was near my price. I got a nice flush but it didn't hit my bid unfortunately. After the flush got bought back up, I thought it was suspicious and so just put a stop above $58 since at this point it looked like it could go either way. It did break out a bit over vwap but then got pushed back down and then under. I left it alone after this but it did have nice lower highs the rest of the day and did fade back to my target. Honestly I wasn't sure about it afterwards since it still had higher lows so I chose to avoid it. I'm not sure if there is anything to learn from this I guess. Right idea and decent execution. The chop in the morning and missing the fill screwed with me a bit. I knew to give it a chance at least after it got bought back up since anything can happen but like I said it was definitely fishy. If I reshorted it and it didn't work after it got back under vwap I would have been more pissed than missing it like I did here because I really wasn't sure at this point.
CUBA: I missed the opening short since I was busy with the above two stocks but I tried to get this on pops. It was a low vol stock but I was playing this off the level 2. I saw huge offers come in so I tried to see if they would get filled or not and when I thought they wouldn't I got in front of it. I got stopped out for breakeven and then tried it again at vwap. That worked and then I saw it spray up and come back to $7 offer with huge size. I thought they had gotten everybody out and would drive it lower now so I added in and put a breakeven stop. That got triggered eventually after it looked like it was going to go lower and then it just consolidated the rest of the day. Nothing else to say about this.
Other stocks:
X: I had it on watch in case today was the day it wanted to fade off. Unfortunately I didn't get any of it. I saw it rip r/g but didn't think much of it until it got rejected back down. That was the first time I saw that. I didn't get in although looking back it had a nice pattern that I could have added into to. I then saw it make a fake low on volume but didn't wan to bother going long for a scalp although it worked out. I thought about shorting it if it got back to the high .60s which it did but at that point I thought it would reclaim so I didn't want to bother with that. I guess bad reads on it somewhat or rather bad execution since I was right each time but never got in.
Things to remember:
1. Give things proper room on ALL types of trades.
Friday, November 25, 2016
Trading Recap 11/25/16
Nothing really to say about today. Only did one trade on JUNO. I saw it forming a nice reclaim of support pattern and with the SSR on I thought it could get a nice pop. So I bought at $22 which was an important area. I also bought it because I remember how CLVS jumped up the next day after the news. $22 dropped so I took it off for a small loss and that was it. But what happened was it reclaimed $22 and then continued on its way. My plan was for it to not break $22, otherwise the pattern would be broken so the stop out was fine really. It wasn't a premature stop out in that case. I think I could have tried it again but I didn't want to get tiny cuts on a day like today in case it just screwed around. But it did end up going all the way to $23 which was past expectations. The only other thing I saw LLY which was also a nice reclaim of support. I didn't take it just due to the slow day but it did work nicely. Nothing else to report trading wise for today. Psychology wise I am getting closer to not caring about losses and just trading what I see. Taking these small losses won't matter when you get a winner and you are sized in, so it's whatever.
Thursday, November 24, 2016
Trading Recap 11/23/16
Wednesday was a slightly profitable day. I had the wrong idea on a lot of stocks but I cut those off for flat because I took a step back and said "If I wasn't in the trade already, would I get in?" And the answer in both cases that it happened was no. That was a good choice both times. As for why I was biased the wrong way - that is something to discuss below. Other than that, something else to discuss is the differentiation I have to make between big picture ideas and the scalps that can still be good "paycheck" money. I think I will start doing more of these breakout/breakdown setups with bigger size and tight stops. I thought you wanted to give things more room to work.. That's absolutely true. However, that will be on my bigger picture idea trades. On these breakout/breakdown trades, I think a tighter stop is warranted because you are looking for immediate followthrough every time and if it doesn't you run the risk of it being a fakeout. I usually hate buying breakouts/shorting breakdowns for these obvious reasons but in certain cases, with a tight stop, they can be useful and provide added profits for relatively low risk if they work. Also, they don't necessarily have to be scalps. They can provide a method to enter a stock at the open or at other points throughout the day. The other thing I want to touch upon is that while you may be open to these new breakout/breakdown plays - don't forgo your other setups like buying a good earnings winner at the premkt support and a bunch of other things you have learned like the vwap dip and rip (vs. just buying at vwap). The biggest key is to stay in the present moment so that you can identify the specific setups that you like and the market is providing you. The last point in the intro that bears discussion is the fact that everything is a probability. Nothing works 100% of the time. However, I can reasonably say that the setups I have in my playbook more often than not when used in the right scenario.
LLY: I didn't have a bias in either direction on this but was willing to play a good pattern/setup within it. The one thing to note right before the open it flushed the premarket support and then got bought back up on huge relative volume. Of course that didn't have to mean anything but I guess that was a bullish sign. It would have been nice if it retested the low at least but it just went to the small support area above $64 and that was the low for the day. After that, I didn't really see a pattern or anything on the way up. The only thing was buying it at the open potentially due to that huge volume fake breakdown but I'm not really into that as that is more sketchy. What I did do was short it at $66.50 for it to at least retest vwap after a decent move up. I figured it would rest and pullback at least before it potentially moved higher (if it did). It wasn't just the premkt resistance that gave me that level, the L2 was also seemingly confirming that it was hard to breakthrough that level. I did it with smaller size in case it wanted to go higher a bit before coming back. That is what it did as it went to the $67 almost before coming back down. I had a decision to make as to whether or not I would want to stay in the trade or just get out for flat. I decided that it was best for me to get out and reevaluate and see if there was more confirmation it wanted to top out there. I said to myself what I mentioned in the intro and I just got out/If I saw the .50s level be a top again I would have tried it but after my breakeven bid got hit I realized I was confused about this particular scenario and the best thing to do would be to wait and see for more clues. There was a $66 bid that really was refreshing, I put a stop order to short underneath it but it just held instead. Bid absorbs like that are tough to buy in front because you don't really know your slippage. The other setup that I missed but would have taken was the vwap test on $66. Not only did you have a refreshing bid there but it was right at vwap too. It just kissed vwap and then went to new highs. So that is another thing to keep in mind of - staying in the present and keeping an eye on things throughout the day.
JUNO: I was pretty short biased on this because I felt that a lot of air was going to come out of the stock. I thought that this stock had a lot of hype around it and now with the patient deaths, it would start to fade off. One thing I want to discuss before I go into my trades is that this is similar to CLVS on the day the news it. It seems that the pattern for these stocks is to dump at the open, then get a bunch of shorts in, squeeze them higher, then either consolidate or go lower the rest of the day. That is something I forgot but will now remember on something like this going forward. Another thing to note is that I found out there was prior news on this stock in July. The first day of news was when the FDA put the trial on hold due to deaths, which is more serious than the company itself putting things on hold, which happened this time. The next week in July, though, the company got clearance to start again after they changed something but the stock faded after the gap up. So when the FDA does something - that has more effect than if the company does it, it seems. Anyway, I avoided it right at the open because I wasn't sure what was going to happen and I didn't have a strong enough bias to just short on any pop etc. It popped at the open then faded off. I saw the big volume washout at the bottom (which of course doesn't mean it's the bottom), but it offered a decent long opportunity based on what I said earlier about how these stocks trade. What I did actually try was short it against vwap. I thought it could head lower but then I did the same exercise I did with LLY: "If I wasn't currently in the stock, would I get in?" The answer to that question was a resounding no so I am glad I had the discipline to just get out for flat. In fact, I even thought it could be a decent long where I shorted, which it ended up being, although I was unsure at that point what was going on. It ended up going to some decent resistance from the prior two lows on the daily, which is where it stopped and where a decent short could have been had. At that point I remembered CLVS and how it squeezed how so I wasn't sure if it could go higher so I just avoided it. The other trade I took was when it came off a little bit and was holding under $22. It looked like it could squeeze higher so I put a buy stop above $22. It triggered and I got filled at a good price and it just shot up 40 cents. I thought about taking half off in the 40s in case it failed but it really seemed like it could go higher. I held onto it and then it just came back down and I stopped for a very tiny loss. I think it was mostly greed in this case although if it had gone up I would be saying nice patience so it's tough to say. But I was unsure, so at the very least I could have taken some off and possibly readd if it broke 50s. The last trade I made on it was later in the day when I thought it could fade off. It broke some support and then retested it so I shorted it then but it just went higher and so I got out after giving it some room. I'm not sure if it was a good trade or not - after I got out I thought it was a "basic bitch" trade that everyone can take so it doesn't work. But that's just hindsight speaking I guess. The problem basically is - I don't care if it didn't work if it was a good process. The thing is I don't know if that was a "good" trade. But I can't go into deep analysis over something like this. It's not a big deal in the long run.
NUGT: Basically missed the vwap test and fail but shorted the base break and then added on another base break because it seemed that NUGT was looking for new lows. I probably should have played DUST due to its price range but it's ok. I put a trailing stop that got hit but I thought it was mistake since I thought it could still go lower to $7. This was similar to SIG. I put in a stop below another base that formed but that ended up not triggering and where I got out ended up being a decent cover I guess.
Other stocks:
DE: I was long biased but it didn't really set up nicely for a long at any point. The only note I want to make is how I thought about buying at vwap but the chart seemed like it was toppy so I avoided it. This ended up being a good call because it flushed lower but then reclaimed vwap. So this was a vwap dip and rip, which I forgot about since I was so focused on buying at vwap directly. So just something to keep in mind. Also, for a stock like DE that isn't a momo name like NFLX and AMZN, with it already having a nice gap up that is far above its usual range, is there anymore upside intraday? That is another thing to consider as well and to keep in mind going forward - maybe look for topping action for a short.
BIIB: This almost hit vwap but even if you didn't get in there it offered a nice ABCD to get long on dips and sell into the ramp. JUNO wasn't cratering so this could offer a nice bounce.
Things to remember/work on:
1. Remember the vwap dip and rip.
2. You are looking into new patterns of trading which is fine. Don't forget everything else.
3. Stay in the present at all times.
4. Remember how JUNO/CLVS react on similar news. Also if the FDA does something vs. the company itself then it's a lot more impactful.
5. "Would I be in this now if I wasn't already in it?"
6. Remember that everything is a probability.
7. Recycle shares when unsure. In the JUNO instance, you could have sold some in the .40s then relong if it breaks out above .50 with a tight stop (in case it was just gunning stops).
8. Something completely irrelevant to today's action but I just saw a good instructional video on it. On TSN on Tuesday, you could have kept it on watch because it offered a nice consolidation to go long/short off of. I would have been long biased due to the fact it was a green candle on the daily after a gap down which usually means they get bought up afterwards. Anyway, it had a nice consolidation and you could have bought the dip to support from yesterday and then with the clear breakout above $58 put a buy stop in front and ride that for almost $2 with bigger size using house's money.
LLY: I didn't have a bias in either direction on this but was willing to play a good pattern/setup within it. The one thing to note right before the open it flushed the premarket support and then got bought back up on huge relative volume. Of course that didn't have to mean anything but I guess that was a bullish sign. It would have been nice if it retested the low at least but it just went to the small support area above $64 and that was the low for the day. After that, I didn't really see a pattern or anything on the way up. The only thing was buying it at the open potentially due to that huge volume fake breakdown but I'm not really into that as that is more sketchy. What I did do was short it at $66.50 for it to at least retest vwap after a decent move up. I figured it would rest and pullback at least before it potentially moved higher (if it did). It wasn't just the premkt resistance that gave me that level, the L2 was also seemingly confirming that it was hard to breakthrough that level. I did it with smaller size in case it wanted to go higher a bit before coming back. That is what it did as it went to the $67 almost before coming back down. I had a decision to make as to whether or not I would want to stay in the trade or just get out for flat. I decided that it was best for me to get out and reevaluate and see if there was more confirmation it wanted to top out there. I said to myself what I mentioned in the intro and I just got out/If I saw the .50s level be a top again I would have tried it but after my breakeven bid got hit I realized I was confused about this particular scenario and the best thing to do would be to wait and see for more clues. There was a $66 bid that really was refreshing, I put a stop order to short underneath it but it just held instead. Bid absorbs like that are tough to buy in front because you don't really know your slippage. The other setup that I missed but would have taken was the vwap test on $66. Not only did you have a refreshing bid there but it was right at vwap too. It just kissed vwap and then went to new highs. So that is another thing to keep in mind of - staying in the present and keeping an eye on things throughout the day.
JUNO: I was pretty short biased on this because I felt that a lot of air was going to come out of the stock. I thought that this stock had a lot of hype around it and now with the patient deaths, it would start to fade off. One thing I want to discuss before I go into my trades is that this is similar to CLVS on the day the news it. It seems that the pattern for these stocks is to dump at the open, then get a bunch of shorts in, squeeze them higher, then either consolidate or go lower the rest of the day. That is something I forgot but will now remember on something like this going forward. Another thing to note is that I found out there was prior news on this stock in July. The first day of news was when the FDA put the trial on hold due to deaths, which is more serious than the company itself putting things on hold, which happened this time. The next week in July, though, the company got clearance to start again after they changed something but the stock faded after the gap up. So when the FDA does something - that has more effect than if the company does it, it seems. Anyway, I avoided it right at the open because I wasn't sure what was going to happen and I didn't have a strong enough bias to just short on any pop etc. It popped at the open then faded off. I saw the big volume washout at the bottom (which of course doesn't mean it's the bottom), but it offered a decent long opportunity based on what I said earlier about how these stocks trade. What I did actually try was short it against vwap. I thought it could head lower but then I did the same exercise I did with LLY: "If I wasn't currently in the stock, would I get in?" The answer to that question was a resounding no so I am glad I had the discipline to just get out for flat. In fact, I even thought it could be a decent long where I shorted, which it ended up being, although I was unsure at that point what was going on. It ended up going to some decent resistance from the prior two lows on the daily, which is where it stopped and where a decent short could have been had. At that point I remembered CLVS and how it squeezed how so I wasn't sure if it could go higher so I just avoided it. The other trade I took was when it came off a little bit and was holding under $22. It looked like it could squeeze higher so I put a buy stop above $22. It triggered and I got filled at a good price and it just shot up 40 cents. I thought about taking half off in the 40s in case it failed but it really seemed like it could go higher. I held onto it and then it just came back down and I stopped for a very tiny loss. I think it was mostly greed in this case although if it had gone up I would be saying nice patience so it's tough to say. But I was unsure, so at the very least I could have taken some off and possibly readd if it broke 50s. The last trade I made on it was later in the day when I thought it could fade off. It broke some support and then retested it so I shorted it then but it just went higher and so I got out after giving it some room. I'm not sure if it was a good trade or not - after I got out I thought it was a "basic bitch" trade that everyone can take so it doesn't work. But that's just hindsight speaking I guess. The problem basically is - I don't care if it didn't work if it was a good process. The thing is I don't know if that was a "good" trade. But I can't go into deep analysis over something like this. It's not a big deal in the long run.
NUGT: Basically missed the vwap test and fail but shorted the base break and then added on another base break because it seemed that NUGT was looking for new lows. I probably should have played DUST due to its price range but it's ok. I put a trailing stop that got hit but I thought it was mistake since I thought it could still go lower to $7. This was similar to SIG. I put in a stop below another base that formed but that ended up not triggering and where I got out ended up being a decent cover I guess.
Other stocks:
DE: I was long biased but it didn't really set up nicely for a long at any point. The only note I want to make is how I thought about buying at vwap but the chart seemed like it was toppy so I avoided it. This ended up being a good call because it flushed lower but then reclaimed vwap. So this was a vwap dip and rip, which I forgot about since I was so focused on buying at vwap directly. So just something to keep in mind. Also, for a stock like DE that isn't a momo name like NFLX and AMZN, with it already having a nice gap up that is far above its usual range, is there anymore upside intraday? That is another thing to consider as well and to keep in mind going forward - maybe look for topping action for a short.
BIIB: This almost hit vwap but even if you didn't get in there it offered a nice ABCD to get long on dips and sell into the ramp. JUNO wasn't cratering so this could offer a nice bounce.
Things to remember/work on:
1. Remember the vwap dip and rip.
2. You are looking into new patterns of trading which is fine. Don't forget everything else.
3. Stay in the present at all times.
4. Remember how JUNO/CLVS react on similar news. Also if the FDA does something vs. the company itself then it's a lot more impactful.
5. "Would I be in this now if I wasn't already in it?"
6. Remember that everything is a probability.
7. Recycle shares when unsure. In the JUNO instance, you could have sold some in the .40s then relong if it breaks out above .50 with a tight stop (in case it was just gunning stops).
8. Something completely irrelevant to today's action but I just saw a good instructional video on it. On TSN on Tuesday, you could have kept it on watch because it offered a nice consolidation to go long/short off of. I would have been long biased due to the fact it was a green candle on the daily after a gap down which usually means they get bought up afterwards. Anyway, it had a nice consolidation and you could have bought the dip to support from yesterday and then with the clear breakout above $58 put a buy stop in front and ride that for almost $2 with bigger size using house's money.
Tuesday, November 22, 2016
Trading Recap 11/22/16
Today was a slightly positive day that wiped yesterday's loss, not that that should matter. I decided to take my closed PnL completely off my screen as well. I'll only look at it at the end of the day otherwise I don't want to see it. I did close out a trade prematurely today to get back to flat or slightly up on the day which is a mistake. Other than that the day was pretty much have decent ideas, not getting filled on some or not taking them and my only losing trade being a good stop out (gave it enough room) but would have worked very, very well but that's trading and that's just hindsight. Improvements still need to be made to psychology but the hesitation to take trades is starting to go away with either reduced size/the fact that my reads have overall been pretty decent, which is furthering the belief that I can be a consistently successful trader. I have to repeat to myself: I AM A CONSISTENTLY PROFITABLE TRADER - WHAT WOULD A CONSISTENTLY PROFITABLE TRADER DO IN THIS SITUATION?
JACK: What a miss this stock was even though I did actually trade it. I happened to trade it at the only time throughout the day that I was going to lose on it - frustrating but nothing really can be done. I took the trade that I saw and at that point it clearly wasn't working so I got out. I did have conviction in it but I wasn't going to be stupid and not stop out. Anyway, my main interest in it stemmed from the fact that it had good earnings/guidance yet was gapping down. I thought it could be bought at the open. I saw it come into the premarket support and was battling whether or not I should go long. I wasn't even going to do big size - just something to get in. The thoughts about what if it went to $97 etc came into play. Even though my plan would have been to add at $97 and see then stop out under it since I would have had smaller size but I couldn't pull the trigger. Pretty much that was the reason I didn't take it - what if it went lower? Well guess what?? It ripped $5 in a minute - so how's that working for you?? Either way I am glad this happened because my belief system and fears are radically starting to shift. It's gotten to the point where I just say fuck it and whatever happens, happens. Anyway, what I did actually do was wait for it to pullback to vwap and a very nice level of support on the hourly. I figured nice support + vwap = nice entry. So my bid got filled but it just went through it. I gave it over/under but I have it a $1 but it just went lower. So it didn't work for my particular trade. I tried putting a bid at the lows to see if it would retest but it never got there. I saw it channeling around vwap but noticed it made that new 52week high by a slim margin in the morning so I thought maybe the stock has to consolidate for a bit and the morning move was it. I didn't know there was a CC but I saw the symbol on TOS and didn't want to be in it anyway during the CC but the stock ripped after it and never looked back. I tried looking for an intelligent entry afterwards but didn't really see anything. So the particular trade I took I have no regrets over - I took it and it was a good entry in my opinion and it just didn't work on my timeframe and didn't seem like it was going work even after giving it ample room. The only lesson is to TAKE THE FUCKING TRADE!
BBY: This was the stock I mentioned in the intro that I took off prematurely when I was down from JACK just to get flat for the day. I missed the vwap entry since my focus was on other stocks but saw that it was still strong today. I ended up buying the breakout with chase size just in case. I knew it was strong but my entry wasn't the best. But it did end up working although it took time and it was choppy. Once it got above another resistance level I added and then just let it go higher. I saw the prior high from day 1 was at .72 and it was speeding up into that level so I thought I should take it off but when the market was pulling back hard, BBY was still going up so I had a feeling this could go higher. However, I put my stop to get me out at a price that would get me flat for the day at least. I should have just moved it up a bit more and given it some room because it clearly was strong as I just mentioned. However, it dipped a little and got me out and then it proceeded to just go higher. I could have gotten another 20 cents or so more on the trade had I not been so focused on my PnL. So that got me to remove the closed PnL from my screen - it serves no purpose anyway. Another thing to remember, and I mentioned this before, is that in the beginning parts of the trade, it didn't look so hot when I was in it. But the minute movement it does in the beginning doesn't mean anything. It ended up going higher than you thought it would and in the beginning you were thinking of just getting out. Part of this was due to the slight chasing and the fact that it made a new high and then dipped back but again - just because it doesn't go right away after making a new high, doesn't mean that is it.
SIG: I wasn't sure what to do with this since I thought the gap was overdone but I figured there would be shorts in this from before due to that report. So what ended up happening is the shorts covered at the open and when it made a new high it just got slammed way down. So once I saw that and it was under vwap, I didn't short it against vwap but I saw that it was forming a base and it looked good for a breakdown at that point. It definitely got stuffed hard and it seemed that all the shorts were out and now it could fade. I tried getting filled a few times but never got it unfortunately. It faded nicely from there. I saw it consolidating a bit lower and under the premarket levels so I thought a short under it would be good. I got filled half my already small shares but then added. I was up a nice amount but trailed my stop which got taken out. It was a small gain at that point but it ended up going past my average back to my initial first entry. I thought about shorting there but that it had bottomed a bit due to the way it acted around the whole number but the pop was a great entry and it went lower from there. The only lessons here are the same as BBY - don't be so focused on what the minute price action is at the beginning of the trade. You don't know how it will end up. Also, the little stuff doesn't mean everything. The reshort was a good opportunity and a better entry anyway.
One thing when I looked back at the action on SIG was after it stuffed at the open, a reshort at the premkt resistance was good. This could be just hindsight speaking but I have seen that work before. You have to give it some room though in case it goes a bit higher to vwap. I would only have given it to vwap since you don't know if it wants to retest the highs and then fade or recollect and climb higher.
PANW: I thought the gap down and fade was overdone so I was looking at support levels from premkt to see if they would hold. The only thing taking me away from having conviction is if this is a stock that was a growth stock that hasn't fulfilled everybody's expectations and now they get hammered for it. I saw $140 was holding for a while so I tried to buy in front of that but my entry was poorish although I had small shares but I wanted to get out for flat and wait for a better entry. I got out for flat and then left it alone. I wasn't interested in shorting the base break although that worked very well. I left it alone after that.
Other stocks:
BURL: I knew this had good earnings and could keep its gap. At the open it dipped to vwap but I didn't put a bid there or anything. I haven't tried doing that right at the open like that but it did work for a good scalp. I saw it had huge volume and kind of stuffed so that would have been a good out I guess. Hard to say as it could have gone higher despite the volume although it was running into the open. Anyway it came off hard to a random spot so no place to put bid. I wanted to see if it would hold over vwap but I missed my entry even though it clearly went back to vwap and retested and then never looked back. I guess I was afraid to take it although it was a very good setup and something I could have added to along the way. This goes back to what I mentioned in JACK: Just take the trade. Honestly at this point you will be happier you took it even if it doesn't work out.
AVXL: Just one thing to note was it flushed at the open. These are good for either vwap retests of if there is premkt support that it is now under, then a retest of that usually works.
Things to remember:
1. Don't trade PnL. Trade the setup and what the market gives you.
2. Take the fucking trade and fuck it! Remember everything you learned in Trading in the Zone.
3. What would a consistently profitable trader do?
4. "Fake" highs and lows don't have to be it
5. The minute beginning parts of the trade don't always mean anything so forget it.
6. Short the retest of premkt support or vwap on low float names when they fail at the open.
JACK: What a miss this stock was even though I did actually trade it. I happened to trade it at the only time throughout the day that I was going to lose on it - frustrating but nothing really can be done. I took the trade that I saw and at that point it clearly wasn't working so I got out. I did have conviction in it but I wasn't going to be stupid and not stop out. Anyway, my main interest in it stemmed from the fact that it had good earnings/guidance yet was gapping down. I thought it could be bought at the open. I saw it come into the premarket support and was battling whether or not I should go long. I wasn't even going to do big size - just something to get in. The thoughts about what if it went to $97 etc came into play. Even though my plan would have been to add at $97 and see then stop out under it since I would have had smaller size but I couldn't pull the trigger. Pretty much that was the reason I didn't take it - what if it went lower? Well guess what?? It ripped $5 in a minute - so how's that working for you?? Either way I am glad this happened because my belief system and fears are radically starting to shift. It's gotten to the point where I just say fuck it and whatever happens, happens. Anyway, what I did actually do was wait for it to pullback to vwap and a very nice level of support on the hourly. I figured nice support + vwap = nice entry. So my bid got filled but it just went through it. I gave it over/under but I have it a $1 but it just went lower. So it didn't work for my particular trade. I tried putting a bid at the lows to see if it would retest but it never got there. I saw it channeling around vwap but noticed it made that new 52week high by a slim margin in the morning so I thought maybe the stock has to consolidate for a bit and the morning move was it. I didn't know there was a CC but I saw the symbol on TOS and didn't want to be in it anyway during the CC but the stock ripped after it and never looked back. I tried looking for an intelligent entry afterwards but didn't really see anything. So the particular trade I took I have no regrets over - I took it and it was a good entry in my opinion and it just didn't work on my timeframe and didn't seem like it was going work even after giving it ample room. The only lesson is to TAKE THE FUCKING TRADE!
BBY: This was the stock I mentioned in the intro that I took off prematurely when I was down from JACK just to get flat for the day. I missed the vwap entry since my focus was on other stocks but saw that it was still strong today. I ended up buying the breakout with chase size just in case. I knew it was strong but my entry wasn't the best. But it did end up working although it took time and it was choppy. Once it got above another resistance level I added and then just let it go higher. I saw the prior high from day 1 was at .72 and it was speeding up into that level so I thought I should take it off but when the market was pulling back hard, BBY was still going up so I had a feeling this could go higher. However, I put my stop to get me out at a price that would get me flat for the day at least. I should have just moved it up a bit more and given it some room because it clearly was strong as I just mentioned. However, it dipped a little and got me out and then it proceeded to just go higher. I could have gotten another 20 cents or so more on the trade had I not been so focused on my PnL. So that got me to remove the closed PnL from my screen - it serves no purpose anyway. Another thing to remember, and I mentioned this before, is that in the beginning parts of the trade, it didn't look so hot when I was in it. But the minute movement it does in the beginning doesn't mean anything. It ended up going higher than you thought it would and in the beginning you were thinking of just getting out. Part of this was due to the slight chasing and the fact that it made a new high and then dipped back but again - just because it doesn't go right away after making a new high, doesn't mean that is it.
SIG: I wasn't sure what to do with this since I thought the gap was overdone but I figured there would be shorts in this from before due to that report. So what ended up happening is the shorts covered at the open and when it made a new high it just got slammed way down. So once I saw that and it was under vwap, I didn't short it against vwap but I saw that it was forming a base and it looked good for a breakdown at that point. It definitely got stuffed hard and it seemed that all the shorts were out and now it could fade. I tried getting filled a few times but never got it unfortunately. It faded nicely from there. I saw it consolidating a bit lower and under the premarket levels so I thought a short under it would be good. I got filled half my already small shares but then added. I was up a nice amount but trailed my stop which got taken out. It was a small gain at that point but it ended up going past my average back to my initial first entry. I thought about shorting there but that it had bottomed a bit due to the way it acted around the whole number but the pop was a great entry and it went lower from there. The only lessons here are the same as BBY - don't be so focused on what the minute price action is at the beginning of the trade. You don't know how it will end up. Also, the little stuff doesn't mean everything. The reshort was a good opportunity and a better entry anyway.
One thing when I looked back at the action on SIG was after it stuffed at the open, a reshort at the premkt resistance was good. This could be just hindsight speaking but I have seen that work before. You have to give it some room though in case it goes a bit higher to vwap. I would only have given it to vwap since you don't know if it wants to retest the highs and then fade or recollect and climb higher.
PANW: I thought the gap down and fade was overdone so I was looking at support levels from premkt to see if they would hold. The only thing taking me away from having conviction is if this is a stock that was a growth stock that hasn't fulfilled everybody's expectations and now they get hammered for it. I saw $140 was holding for a while so I tried to buy in front of that but my entry was poorish although I had small shares but I wanted to get out for flat and wait for a better entry. I got out for flat and then left it alone. I wasn't interested in shorting the base break although that worked very well. I left it alone after that.
Other stocks:
BURL: I knew this had good earnings and could keep its gap. At the open it dipped to vwap but I didn't put a bid there or anything. I haven't tried doing that right at the open like that but it did work for a good scalp. I saw it had huge volume and kind of stuffed so that would have been a good out I guess. Hard to say as it could have gone higher despite the volume although it was running into the open. Anyway it came off hard to a random spot so no place to put bid. I wanted to see if it would hold over vwap but I missed my entry even though it clearly went back to vwap and retested and then never looked back. I guess I was afraid to take it although it was a very good setup and something I could have added to along the way. This goes back to what I mentioned in JACK: Just take the trade. Honestly at this point you will be happier you took it even if it doesn't work out.
AVXL: Just one thing to note was it flushed at the open. These are good for either vwap retests of if there is premkt support that it is now under, then a retest of that usually works.
Things to remember:
1. Don't trade PnL. Trade the setup and what the market gives you.
2. Take the fucking trade and fuck it! Remember everything you learned in Trading in the Zone.
3. What would a consistently profitable trader do?
4. "Fake" highs and lows don't have to be it
5. The minute beginning parts of the trade don't always mean anything so forget it.
6. Short the retest of premkt support or vwap on low float names when they fail at the open.
Monday, November 21, 2016
Trading Recap 11/21/16
Small losing day today that should have been a winning day. Progress is being made overall though with my psychology. My calls/ideas are good - trading them and all of my ideas is something else. But that is the work in progress. What basically happened today was a mini version of what happened a few weeks ago when I was right about a few things in the morning but never took them so then when I see something that is ehh I just say screw it and go for it even though it's not the best setup. Luckily I didn't do much size at all and just took a starter and it was only one trade. There wasn't much else after the morning anyway. So the big takeaway from today is to just go for it on the actual good ideas - don't let today get repeated again.
TSN: I was originally short biased due to the poor earnings/guidance etc. It had a very nice pattern going into the open - which was pretty much "the pattern" that has worked all the time for a fade no matter what. This time though it didn't work so clear. I tried shorting it at vwap when that was a peak in the first few minutes at the open. I let it go a bit higher over/under vwap but at this point it wasn't really adhering to the pattern. So because it wasn't adhering to the pattern I wanted to get out for flat if I could. I had a smaller position size to let it test over/under vwap. I got out for flat but right after I got out it did end up going lower. It had a nice pattern that would have been better to short when it was broke under $57, that was a good short. It did make new lows but the lows were bought right back up on volume so that was a signal to possibly get out. Again, it could have popped then dropped lower but it's good to take some off at the very least. After that happened, it just chopped around for a bit but did look more bullish. I didn't want to waste my time though on a slow day like today so even though it got above vwap and held, I didn't take it. It did end up working although it was a tricky stock to trade and it was pretty algo-driven it seemed like. Also, it stuffed and came off and dipped before going higher, so that is another consideration as well which I have mentioned before.
YY: This was the stock/trade that is the reason for the intro paragraph. I saw it had earnings and it was starting to fade into the open so I thought it could be another MOMO. At the open it popped right to vwap and I thought about shorting it but was unsure what it would do. Of course that ended up being the top. So it came off a bit but then retested vwap and I feel like I missed the entry but that would have definitely worked as well. I definitely hesitated with that. It did provide opportunity after that, when it peaked the prior support using the longer term chart. Where I ended up getting in was on the bounce back after it looked like it reclaimed support and was on the move higher. I shorted it against vwap. I figured that it would go lower and bigger picture vs. the minute price action and it didn't mean that it reclaimed. When it usually doesn't reclaim, it just goes right back down instead of holding the support and then pushing from there. So that was just my psychology executing the trade due to frustration from not taking other trades. I did small size and gave it to over/under vwap but it just started holding above vwap and never hit my breakeven stop after I knew it was a dumb trade so I got out. I got out near the top when I put my stop above the prior high and I figured something like that could happen but I didn't want this dumb trade to become something worse. So that was the big lesson I learned with this trade: just take the right trades the first time so you don't get frustrated into taking shitty setups.
Other stocks:
BBY: I had BBY on long watch for continuation and in the morning it reclaimed vwap and held so I thought about going long but didn't. Then it went higher and came right to vwap which would have been perfect but I didn't take it and it ended up going straight up for a while afterwards. I didn't take it because I thought today would be a slow day and stocks like this wouldn't get much followthrough but I was wrong. It was definitely a good setup though.
OCUL: This one I had on short watch. I saw it having a nice short pattern and I thought about shorting the breakdown but it had low volume so I was weary of it just being a trap. But it wasn't a trap and it did consolidate a bit even under the support before really flushing. I also didn't short it because others had it on long watch or wanted it higher so I know I have to avoid listening to anyone else and just focus on me.
SPU: I missed the stuff in the morning. I was unsure how to play these stocks after the shippers and the fact that it is Thanksgiving week where stuff tends to run. However, with SCON and BNSO last week having not that much followthrough, I should have been more short biased. I did see the stuff but by the time I saw it it was 50 cents off the high and thought I missed my entry. I think if I see something like that and miss the perfect entry, I should just get in smaller size and if it bounces a bit before tanking then add in. Even with the small shares it would have been a small but nice win.
Things to remember:
1. Take the right setups the first time with no hesitation.
2. Breakdowns can be ok even with lesser volume.
3. When you miss the best entry on a stuff, just short lesser size and add in if it bounces a bit before going lower.
4. Don't listen to anyone else.
TSN: I was originally short biased due to the poor earnings/guidance etc. It had a very nice pattern going into the open - which was pretty much "the pattern" that has worked all the time for a fade no matter what. This time though it didn't work so clear. I tried shorting it at vwap when that was a peak in the first few minutes at the open. I let it go a bit higher over/under vwap but at this point it wasn't really adhering to the pattern. So because it wasn't adhering to the pattern I wanted to get out for flat if I could. I had a smaller position size to let it test over/under vwap. I got out for flat but right after I got out it did end up going lower. It had a nice pattern that would have been better to short when it was broke under $57, that was a good short. It did make new lows but the lows were bought right back up on volume so that was a signal to possibly get out. Again, it could have popped then dropped lower but it's good to take some off at the very least. After that happened, it just chopped around for a bit but did look more bullish. I didn't want to waste my time though on a slow day like today so even though it got above vwap and held, I didn't take it. It did end up working although it was a tricky stock to trade and it was pretty algo-driven it seemed like. Also, it stuffed and came off and dipped before going higher, so that is another consideration as well which I have mentioned before.
YY: This was the stock/trade that is the reason for the intro paragraph. I saw it had earnings and it was starting to fade into the open so I thought it could be another MOMO. At the open it popped right to vwap and I thought about shorting it but was unsure what it would do. Of course that ended up being the top. So it came off a bit but then retested vwap and I feel like I missed the entry but that would have definitely worked as well. I definitely hesitated with that. It did provide opportunity after that, when it peaked the prior support using the longer term chart. Where I ended up getting in was on the bounce back after it looked like it reclaimed support and was on the move higher. I shorted it against vwap. I figured that it would go lower and bigger picture vs. the minute price action and it didn't mean that it reclaimed. When it usually doesn't reclaim, it just goes right back down instead of holding the support and then pushing from there. So that was just my psychology executing the trade due to frustration from not taking other trades. I did small size and gave it to over/under vwap but it just started holding above vwap and never hit my breakeven stop after I knew it was a dumb trade so I got out. I got out near the top when I put my stop above the prior high and I figured something like that could happen but I didn't want this dumb trade to become something worse. So that was the big lesson I learned with this trade: just take the right trades the first time so you don't get frustrated into taking shitty setups.
Other stocks:
BBY: I had BBY on long watch for continuation and in the morning it reclaimed vwap and held so I thought about going long but didn't. Then it went higher and came right to vwap which would have been perfect but I didn't take it and it ended up going straight up for a while afterwards. I didn't take it because I thought today would be a slow day and stocks like this wouldn't get much followthrough but I was wrong. It was definitely a good setup though.
OCUL: This one I had on short watch. I saw it having a nice short pattern and I thought about shorting the breakdown but it had low volume so I was weary of it just being a trap. But it wasn't a trap and it did consolidate a bit even under the support before really flushing. I also didn't short it because others had it on long watch or wanted it higher so I know I have to avoid listening to anyone else and just focus on me.
SPU: I missed the stuff in the morning. I was unsure how to play these stocks after the shippers and the fact that it is Thanksgiving week where stuff tends to run. However, with SCON and BNSO last week having not that much followthrough, I should have been more short biased. I did see the stuff but by the time I saw it it was 50 cents off the high and thought I missed my entry. I think if I see something like that and miss the perfect entry, I should just get in smaller size and if it bounces a bit before tanking then add in. Even with the small shares it would have been a small but nice win.
Things to remember:
1. Take the right setups the first time with no hesitation.
2. Breakdowns can be ok even with lesser volume.
3. When you miss the best entry on a stuff, just short lesser size and add in if it bounces a bit before going lower.
4. Don't listen to anyone else.
Saturday, November 19, 2016
Trading Recap 11/18/16
Yesterday was a mildly down day but it was a decent day process wise so it's ok. There were a few trades that I could have broke even on had I held but whatever. More disconcerting is the premature stop outs that would have resulted in decent profits had I held. Lesser size would have helped and possibly scaling into the trade as well like I did on BBY today. I have to realize I want to risk up to $20 a trade in the best case scenario so I have scale in with that number in mind. When I was scaling into trades like on BBY I had no hesitation to do what I wanted. What also factored into it was me having very good reads on a lot of names throughout the week but not taking the trade. My beliefs that I am a decent trader are starting to overshadow the negative beliefs I had before. This is good progress so that is what I will take away from a day like today.
BBY: I completely missed BBY on day 1 of the move but I still liked it for day 2 r/g move like it did last earnings. I saw it had support at around $45 from the day before so my plan was to buy the $45 wash and scale into the trade if it confirmed with higher lows. So when it opened I bought at $45 and it did go a bit further down but I was in small size so didn't care. Once it got over vwap and it dipped I added more. I didn't get the best fill on this because I didn't have a bid at vwap and at the time I just saw it get bought up quickly at vwap so I just wanted to get in in case that dip was it. But it did go a bit lower and my plan on the add was vwap over/under. It seemed to have not held vwap so I sold the add for a loss at what ended up being a bottom. I guess I should have given it more room. I still had my initial though but sold it when vwap looked like it was definitely peaking. It did end up going back to retest the former highs but never did anything else. So overall: scaling in was fine. Only thing was to give it more room perhaps and to let it test over/under more so and to not take the 2min chart I am using during the morning so so literally when something looks like it is peaking etc.
MRVL: I saw this had good earnings and was gapping up past resistance on the 1year chart and was making new 52week highs so it was good potential for a long. I thought about buying it at the premkt support when it dipped to that level but I didn't unfortunately due to fear I guess. It was stupid not to do it with at least with partial size because it was a good setup. After I missed that dip buy though I saw it flagging above vwap so I bought that breakout. I was looking for a move at least to the premarket highs around .90 to $15. It got close but I wasn't going to sell it prematurely when I thought I had a winner. Unfortunately, it had a fake high and then it flushed back down. It flushed pretty quickly so I gave it a little time to see if it would come back but it never did and my stop for it should have been triggered had I had one but I wanted to give it a little time. It didn't quickly bounce back so I took it off for a loss. It did go lower and then consolidated and I thought about buying it again but the mkt was dead overall so I figured it would have no followthrough. It did go back to retest the highs but nothing special. Overall, it wasn't a bad trade. It just didn't work. The only thing that I would have done better is to buy at support and not be fearful. Even if I did that, I would have added where I actually got in and from there I'm not sure. It probably would have been a breakeven trade.
ANF: I saw the earnings were pretty bad and it was near all time lows so I thought it could breakdown and make new lows. However, during premarket I saw the 14.85 level absorb quite a lot of shares so I wasn't convinced at that point if it was going to go down any further. My plan was to monitor and wait until .85 broke and peaked and then I would short. So it eventually did do that and my plan was to short near .85 for a continuation move downward. My stop was .85 over/under. I let it test around a few times but it looked like it had reclaimed so I stopped out. It did go a little higher through vwap but then came back down and eventually faded off the rest of the day. So my idea was right but wrong execution I guess. I don't think my trade was bad and my stop at the time was ok. But I did see it later in the day retest prior support and that could have been an entry. I think I didn't take it because of how slow the day was but this would have worked.
TSLA: I missed the setup in the morning for the short because I didn't have it on my main watch. But it stuffed through the premkt support and then flushed. People probably bought it at the open and then they got washed out. I saw it later in the day and it had a nice bear flag. It broke the line but I knew now to short it then because it was probably a trap. I ended up shorting it near resistance and wanted to give it a little room. I gave it to over $127 for the particular pattern I was seeing but I should have given it more room/used less size to scale in when I figured it would gun stops especially during the low vol period. This is all hindsight though and it could have just kept that resistance and gone lower too. The best thing to just do is just scale in with small size. It pushed through $127 twice and failed. So again, you have to give things enough room and be ok for the fakeouts like those. Over/under is key. It made new lows and closed at the lows so I had the right idea but again the execution was poor. Scaling in with less size is much better and having a smaller gain is better than a stupid loss.
Other stocks:
CRM: I was suspicious of the gap up since the earnings/guidance were ok but nothing great. My plan was to see how it would react around the $79.60 and see if it peaked. It did put in a few tops but nothing too convincing and I wasn't too sure about the trade either. But I guess one entry could have been shorting the $79 break. That was a nice flush and would have confirmed my thesis.
Things to work on:
1. Lesser size/scaling into the trade
2. Process > outcome
3. Give things enough room via over/under
4. Buy at premkt support on the good earnings names. Do so with lesser size if you have t.
5. Look at all charts for any opportunities like CRM.
BBY: I completely missed BBY on day 1 of the move but I still liked it for day 2 r/g move like it did last earnings. I saw it had support at around $45 from the day before so my plan was to buy the $45 wash and scale into the trade if it confirmed with higher lows. So when it opened I bought at $45 and it did go a bit further down but I was in small size so didn't care. Once it got over vwap and it dipped I added more. I didn't get the best fill on this because I didn't have a bid at vwap and at the time I just saw it get bought up quickly at vwap so I just wanted to get in in case that dip was it. But it did go a bit lower and my plan on the add was vwap over/under. It seemed to have not held vwap so I sold the add for a loss at what ended up being a bottom. I guess I should have given it more room. I still had my initial though but sold it when vwap looked like it was definitely peaking. It did end up going back to retest the former highs but never did anything else. So overall: scaling in was fine. Only thing was to give it more room perhaps and to let it test over/under more so and to not take the 2min chart I am using during the morning so so literally when something looks like it is peaking etc.
MRVL: I saw this had good earnings and was gapping up past resistance on the 1year chart and was making new 52week highs so it was good potential for a long. I thought about buying it at the premkt support when it dipped to that level but I didn't unfortunately due to fear I guess. It was stupid not to do it with at least with partial size because it was a good setup. After I missed that dip buy though I saw it flagging above vwap so I bought that breakout. I was looking for a move at least to the premarket highs around .90 to $15. It got close but I wasn't going to sell it prematurely when I thought I had a winner. Unfortunately, it had a fake high and then it flushed back down. It flushed pretty quickly so I gave it a little time to see if it would come back but it never did and my stop for it should have been triggered had I had one but I wanted to give it a little time. It didn't quickly bounce back so I took it off for a loss. It did go lower and then consolidated and I thought about buying it again but the mkt was dead overall so I figured it would have no followthrough. It did go back to retest the highs but nothing special. Overall, it wasn't a bad trade. It just didn't work. The only thing that I would have done better is to buy at support and not be fearful. Even if I did that, I would have added where I actually got in and from there I'm not sure. It probably would have been a breakeven trade.
ANF: I saw the earnings were pretty bad and it was near all time lows so I thought it could breakdown and make new lows. However, during premarket I saw the 14.85 level absorb quite a lot of shares so I wasn't convinced at that point if it was going to go down any further. My plan was to monitor and wait until .85 broke and peaked and then I would short. So it eventually did do that and my plan was to short near .85 for a continuation move downward. My stop was .85 over/under. I let it test around a few times but it looked like it had reclaimed so I stopped out. It did go a little higher through vwap but then came back down and eventually faded off the rest of the day. So my idea was right but wrong execution I guess. I don't think my trade was bad and my stop at the time was ok. But I did see it later in the day retest prior support and that could have been an entry. I think I didn't take it because of how slow the day was but this would have worked.
TSLA: I missed the setup in the morning for the short because I didn't have it on my main watch. But it stuffed through the premkt support and then flushed. People probably bought it at the open and then they got washed out. I saw it later in the day and it had a nice bear flag. It broke the line but I knew now to short it then because it was probably a trap. I ended up shorting it near resistance and wanted to give it a little room. I gave it to over $127 for the particular pattern I was seeing but I should have given it more room/used less size to scale in when I figured it would gun stops especially during the low vol period. This is all hindsight though and it could have just kept that resistance and gone lower too. The best thing to just do is just scale in with small size. It pushed through $127 twice and failed. So again, you have to give things enough room and be ok for the fakeouts like those. Over/under is key. It made new lows and closed at the lows so I had the right idea but again the execution was poor. Scaling in with less size is much better and having a smaller gain is better than a stupid loss.
Other stocks:
CRM: I was suspicious of the gap up since the earnings/guidance were ok but nothing great. My plan was to see how it would react around the $79.60 and see if it peaked. It did put in a few tops but nothing too convincing and I wasn't too sure about the trade either. But I guess one entry could have been shorting the $79 break. That was a nice flush and would have confirmed my thesis.
Things to work on:
1. Lesser size/scaling into the trade
2. Process > outcome
3. Give things enough room via over/under
4. Buy at premkt support on the good earnings names. Do so with lesser size if you have t.
5. Look at all charts for any opportunities like CRM.
Thursday, November 17, 2016
Trading Recap 11/17/16
Today was my new best day at the firm (although not my best day ever). It definitely could have been A LOT more of a day and I left a ton on the table. There are definitely still psychological issues at work still although I hope I am drawing the energy from my negative beliefs into more positive ones as I gain more confidence in my ideas. Going into the day I was long biased on the shipping names until the DRYS situation was resolved. When I heard it would be unhalted and there would be an offering then I was leaning more to shorting although was staying cautious in case everyone shorted again and squeezed it up, so I was keeping an open mind. That is why I didn't do anything out of the open. Eventually everything started falling apart so I just shorted breakdowns etc and made some decent money. I covered way too early on these thinking that it would be a pop, drop, pop, drop scenario as these would have to filter out shorts but that wasn't the case at all. I guess one thing I struggle with is going from my usual conservative self to risk on mode on days like today. I do have to get better at that - the rules I have protect me and I am better off for them on 99% of trading days. These 1% days though offer a lot of opportunity so it is worth it to learn how to go from conservative to risk-taker and then back to conservative. I don't really have a process in place in order to achieve that - I believe that will just come with time and more exposure.
ESEA: Looking back, I definitely messed up this trade and trading this name altogether. I saw that they had an ATM facility so it would be the weakest out of all of them if it were to fade. I wasn't paying too much attention at the open because like I said I wasn't sure what was going to happen. But it did form a nice base and then broke down from that. Obviously, I don't like shorting base breaks but on days like today and when the tech stocks were tanking, there is clear followthrough that happens and it's ok. Shorting breakdowns is only for times like these. After it came off it formed a nice pattern that I shorted the breakdown of. That was fine but what wasn't fine was putting my cover at just the next support and then seeing it go down $2 more. Stupid. Like I said above, I thought it would be more of a rotating out shorts and going down with a nice downtrend and not just complete wash. So that was my mistake. I also thought that since I was shorting the breakdown I should just take it since I didn't have a good average. That is another mistake on days like today as well. Let them ride even when shorting breakdowns.
GSL: I saw this was running in premkt and the offering news came out and this tanked but then it recollected and went higher. This made me think they could all start going again. But it stuffed with huge volume at 4.50s and I was hesitant to short it then. It was definitely fear. I should have at least tried it even though I wasn't sure because even though I wasn't sure, I was very open to the possibility that they could fade off. So I think it fear that caused me to take that trade. This goes back to what I have said in prior posts and what I have been reading - you can't be afraid to lose. Losing is a part of the game and you have to accept the risks that come with each trade fully so that the market doesn't generate any harmful information to you. The thoughts that got me to not short it were that not all stuffs work like that.. etc. Stupid thoughts. It is the stuff + the situation that make it a good trade. In addition I wasn't sure if these would keep going up. I knew it stuffed but I didn't know if it would recollect and go higher. The fact that they were up even after the offering news was definitely a red flag to me. After the big stuff at the open it flushed and then came under vwap. I wanted a vwap test so put an offer near there but it never got there. I thought about putting it at the prior high but wanted vwap because I figured they would get people stopped out into a vwap push. Looking back though, I should have just went off support and got in there and risked accordingly to vwap. Trading is a funny thing in that sometimes you wish you got in at whatever price then other times you wish you got a slightly better price. But as mentioned in a prior blog post, I can't be pinching pennies here and be worried about that. That has cost me numerous times not only yesterday and today but prior days as well. It is a recurring problem that probably stems from being scared to actually get in the trade. I need to cut that out - it has cost me too much in potential gains. My actual trade was after it got under $3 and was consolidating I shorted. I gave it a bit past the consolidation area since I figured they would have to gun stops. I didn't know how much lower this was going to go so I put in a bid at the next support for a scalp. It worked out well and it did go lower but I'm not complaining too much about this one for covering early.
EGLE: This had a similar pattern to ESEA that I missed out of the open. I believe I saw it consolidating at the lows with a nice bear flag but I didn't take that either. I did just take the second consolidation/bear flag after getting a shitty fill but it ended up being my main gainer. I covered near the lows since I figured this was the last push lower. Not much else to say about this one other than I missed the first few entries due to having wrong bias/being too cautious. I will admit I was skeptical of the trade while in it but I figured at this point they were all fading.
Other stocks:
BBY: This was a big example and perhaps a big confidence booster even though I didn't take the trade. I knew I wanted to get long near the premkt low as that is a good area. It went to there and went a little lower but not by much. I didn't take the trade for 2 reasons: 1. I saw on level 2 it looked a little weak with offers absorbing but it held the support. So the first lesson here of course is as mentioned before: L2 is a tool in your arsenal but don't consider it the end all be all. 2. I was scared to put on the trade and be wrong. THAT IS WRONG. I also have to give things wiggle room as it went lower by a bit but not by much. So again over/under. I did put a bid but it never got there so I took it off. I thought it was done though as it had huge volume on the $43 break and it looked like a vwap stuff but it just climbed higher. So here is another lesson: just because it stuffs doesn't mean it's done. This may contradict what I said before on GSL but it doesn't That was a huge stuff on a pump name vs. a legit earnings winner stock. Here it just took a lot of buying to get through a certain level of sellers but buying continued throughout the day. Anyway, I figured I would let it prove itself and let it go to vwap and then I could buy it. When it was under vwap and under $43 it was more sketchy for sure and I could have waited for it to get over vwap but that didn't have to stop me from taking an entry. Anyway, when it dipped to vwap and by the time I saw it, it was a bit off the vwap dip to the .90s. I didn't want to risk that much for some really stupid reason. So lesson here is to not care about the pennies etc. Just go for it. There were other opportunities later in the day for buying breakouts that I didn't take. One other thing to note of course is that it made a fake high then came back down but then came back up and went higher. So again fake highs and lows are just prices that were transacted at, at that particular time. They can get stops and flush people out but that's fine.
NVDA: I had this on long watch if it setup. I wanted to buy it at yesterday's support area. It made a new high at the open and then just came off right away. I thought it would fade the rest of the day then because of the fake high and so didn't buy at the support level. It went to the support level and a little under it (over/under) and that was the bottom and it made new highs. So lesson here is again not care about the fake highs and lows and just trade the plan and give it enough room.
SCON and BNSO: I didn't trade these. I was scared to put on a trade on these due to wanting to protect profits. I also wasn't sure if the low float mania would continue or not but again fear prevented me from trading these. As for actually trading them, the stuff worked on SCON but one thing to note is how it double topped and then gave the goods out to shorts. So anything can happen on these. For BNSO it stuffed but then continued higher. So again, what you think is high volume may not be high volume when you see what happens later on.
Things to remember:
1. Work on going from conservative to risk taker on days like today.
2. Shorting breakdowns is ok when there is momentum like today. You don't have to cover right away when you short them either, let them work in situations like this.
3. Losing is a part of the game and you have to accept the risks that come with each trade fully so that the market doesn't generate any harmful information to you.
4. I can't be pinching pennies here and be worried about that. That has cost me numerous times not only yesterday and today but prior days as well. It is a recurring problem that probably stems from being scared to actually get in the trade. I need to cut that out - it has cost me too much in potential gains.
5. L2 is just a tool but not the end all be all. Don't let it interfere with plans.
6. Over/under is key.
7. The stuffs/big volume don't have to mean the play is done. Be aware of that and the context it happens.
8. Don't let the fake highs/lows scare you out or make you change your plan.
9. For stuffing volume remember there can be a lot more volume at higher levels.
ESEA: Looking back, I definitely messed up this trade and trading this name altogether. I saw that they had an ATM facility so it would be the weakest out of all of them if it were to fade. I wasn't paying too much attention at the open because like I said I wasn't sure what was going to happen. But it did form a nice base and then broke down from that. Obviously, I don't like shorting base breaks but on days like today and when the tech stocks were tanking, there is clear followthrough that happens and it's ok. Shorting breakdowns is only for times like these. After it came off it formed a nice pattern that I shorted the breakdown of. That was fine but what wasn't fine was putting my cover at just the next support and then seeing it go down $2 more. Stupid. Like I said above, I thought it would be more of a rotating out shorts and going down with a nice downtrend and not just complete wash. So that was my mistake. I also thought that since I was shorting the breakdown I should just take it since I didn't have a good average. That is another mistake on days like today as well. Let them ride even when shorting breakdowns.
GSL: I saw this was running in premkt and the offering news came out and this tanked but then it recollected and went higher. This made me think they could all start going again. But it stuffed with huge volume at 4.50s and I was hesitant to short it then. It was definitely fear. I should have at least tried it even though I wasn't sure because even though I wasn't sure, I was very open to the possibility that they could fade off. So I think it fear that caused me to take that trade. This goes back to what I have said in prior posts and what I have been reading - you can't be afraid to lose. Losing is a part of the game and you have to accept the risks that come with each trade fully so that the market doesn't generate any harmful information to you. The thoughts that got me to not short it were that not all stuffs work like that.. etc. Stupid thoughts. It is the stuff + the situation that make it a good trade. In addition I wasn't sure if these would keep going up. I knew it stuffed but I didn't know if it would recollect and go higher. The fact that they were up even after the offering news was definitely a red flag to me. After the big stuff at the open it flushed and then came under vwap. I wanted a vwap test so put an offer near there but it never got there. I thought about putting it at the prior high but wanted vwap because I figured they would get people stopped out into a vwap push. Looking back though, I should have just went off support and got in there and risked accordingly to vwap. Trading is a funny thing in that sometimes you wish you got in at whatever price then other times you wish you got a slightly better price. But as mentioned in a prior blog post, I can't be pinching pennies here and be worried about that. That has cost me numerous times not only yesterday and today but prior days as well. It is a recurring problem that probably stems from being scared to actually get in the trade. I need to cut that out - it has cost me too much in potential gains. My actual trade was after it got under $3 and was consolidating I shorted. I gave it a bit past the consolidation area since I figured they would have to gun stops. I didn't know how much lower this was going to go so I put in a bid at the next support for a scalp. It worked out well and it did go lower but I'm not complaining too much about this one for covering early.
EGLE: This had a similar pattern to ESEA that I missed out of the open. I believe I saw it consolidating at the lows with a nice bear flag but I didn't take that either. I did just take the second consolidation/bear flag after getting a shitty fill but it ended up being my main gainer. I covered near the lows since I figured this was the last push lower. Not much else to say about this one other than I missed the first few entries due to having wrong bias/being too cautious. I will admit I was skeptical of the trade while in it but I figured at this point they were all fading.
Other stocks:
BBY: This was a big example and perhaps a big confidence booster even though I didn't take the trade. I knew I wanted to get long near the premkt low as that is a good area. It went to there and went a little lower but not by much. I didn't take the trade for 2 reasons: 1. I saw on level 2 it looked a little weak with offers absorbing but it held the support. So the first lesson here of course is as mentioned before: L2 is a tool in your arsenal but don't consider it the end all be all. 2. I was scared to put on the trade and be wrong. THAT IS WRONG. I also have to give things wiggle room as it went lower by a bit but not by much. So again over/under. I did put a bid but it never got there so I took it off. I thought it was done though as it had huge volume on the $43 break and it looked like a vwap stuff but it just climbed higher. So here is another lesson: just because it stuffs doesn't mean it's done. This may contradict what I said before on GSL but it doesn't That was a huge stuff on a pump name vs. a legit earnings winner stock. Here it just took a lot of buying to get through a certain level of sellers but buying continued throughout the day. Anyway, I figured I would let it prove itself and let it go to vwap and then I could buy it. When it was under vwap and under $43 it was more sketchy for sure and I could have waited for it to get over vwap but that didn't have to stop me from taking an entry. Anyway, when it dipped to vwap and by the time I saw it, it was a bit off the vwap dip to the .90s. I didn't want to risk that much for some really stupid reason. So lesson here is to not care about the pennies etc. Just go for it. There were other opportunities later in the day for buying breakouts that I didn't take. One other thing to note of course is that it made a fake high then came back down but then came back up and went higher. So again fake highs and lows are just prices that were transacted at, at that particular time. They can get stops and flush people out but that's fine.
NVDA: I had this on long watch if it setup. I wanted to buy it at yesterday's support area. It made a new high at the open and then just came off right away. I thought it would fade the rest of the day then because of the fake high and so didn't buy at the support level. It went to the support level and a little under it (over/under) and that was the bottom and it made new highs. So lesson here is again not care about the fake highs and lows and just trade the plan and give it enough room.
SCON and BNSO: I didn't trade these. I was scared to put on a trade on these due to wanting to protect profits. I also wasn't sure if the low float mania would continue or not but again fear prevented me from trading these. As for actually trading them, the stuff worked on SCON but one thing to note is how it double topped and then gave the goods out to shorts. So anything can happen on these. For BNSO it stuffed but then continued higher. So again, what you think is high volume may not be high volume when you see what happens later on.
Things to remember:
1. Work on going from conservative to risk taker on days like today.
2. Shorting breakdowns is ok when there is momentum like today. You don't have to cover right away when you short them either, let them work in situations like this.
3. Losing is a part of the game and you have to accept the risks that come with each trade fully so that the market doesn't generate any harmful information to you.
4. I can't be pinching pennies here and be worried about that. That has cost me numerous times not only yesterday and today but prior days as well. It is a recurring problem that probably stems from being scared to actually get in the trade. I need to cut that out - it has cost me too much in potential gains.
5. L2 is just a tool but not the end all be all. Don't let it interfere with plans.
6. Over/under is key.
7. The stuffs/big volume don't have to mean the play is done. Be aware of that and the context it happens.
8. Don't let the fake highs/lows scare you out or make you change your plan.
9. For stuffing volume remember there can be a lot more volume at higher levels.
Wednesday, November 16, 2016
Trading Recap 11/16/16
I didn't have any executed trades today so not much to talk about. I tried to go long on the bid on NVDA twice and both would have worked well but I missed the fill by a few cents unfortunately. Not sure if there is anything to learn from that to be honest. Just bad luck I guess. Maybe I didn't feel confident at the time but going back I was just looking for a retest of the breakout level before it heading higher but it never went right back to it. I didn't trade the shippers at all - I thought there was too much headache and it wasn't worth it. I wasn't sure whether I should be long or short biased and I didn't want to deal with halt risk. In hindsight there were levels to get long off of and short. The rules I have for not chasing will serve me well 99/100 times. I rather have a long career even if it means forgoing some of these trades.
Tuesday, November 15, 2016
Trading Recap 11/15/16
Today was a pretty profitable day. All profitable tickers with some decent trading all around. There are still psychological issues that are present when trading such as still being fearful while in the trade which I still have to work on. I must remember to be focused on the present moment and to remember what I have been writing about: giving things enough room, not freaking out over losses which will never be huge, not caring about the money, etc. These are all things that have to be worked on. On the flip side I did have some conviction in some of my trades that allowed me to hold on and profit.
X: I saw that the market was gapping up while this was gapping down so I thought it had relative weakness finally and could pullback due to profit taking. It had a nice base of support from premarket so when that peaked and it peaked the prior support from yesterday, I got in on a pop. It worked well similar to yesterday but it ended up holding a support level pretty well so I just got out for flat essentially when it started to push. It's easy to say what a proper setup "should" look like as a stock can do anything before it gives you the move you want but I didn't like how it just pushed so quick above vwap which was now below my entry price. I don't know if the stop out for flat came from a fear of losing money but I guess I had a good feeling it wouldn't work when it had that push. I think if it got under vwap again and peaked again then I would have tried again.
BUD: This play came off of scan. It had long term support at this level and it came quickly down to it on big volume. I wanted to see some confirmation first of it bottoming out before buying. I saw it was flagging after getting a push up above vwap. I tried buying dips but didn't get filled so when it broke the flag I bought the retest. I was looking for it to go to 103 at least but it stalled out in the .70s and I moved my stop up to protect profit. It could have easily hovered around there and then gone further to my target but that's ok. Later in the day, it went to vwap which I missed and then broke to 103s. That would have been a decent entry, but I didn't see it. I did see it afterwards though and it looked like a lower high so I didn't bother with it. It was a lower high but then it had a higher low right after and went up from there. So the lesson here obviously is that anything can happen and thesis/big picture is much more important than how the candles form. The price tells you if you are right or wrong but how you interpret it is up to you. Just because it has a lower high like this doesn't mean it's done with. Obviously, it could have just kept fading back down but the overall picture suggests bounce. Psychologically-wise, while I was in the trade and it went against me for a few cents (basically nothing) I felt like it was just going to be a loser right away and that it was a stupid trade. Then it makes new highs and I think ok maybe this can work. This bipolar shit has to stop. You take a trade, you have a stop area in mind, and a target. That is it. Nothing else. DON'T REJECT YOURSELF, LET THE STOCK REJECT YOU. SAME WITH LIFE.
TOPS: I was interested in this the most because it wasn't HTB like the others. I thought it had stuffed out of the gate and I missed it but it went higher. So there is something to remember here about not all stuffs are it of course. This also held vwap right all the time so there wasn't a reason to short this unless you anticipated the stuff. It did have a nice breakout from 5.50 area but I wasn't really looking at these for a long unless they setup later in the day. Especially with the way DRYS looked which was picture perfect for a short. So it made that big push in the morning but I didn't short that because I was unsure how far these were going to go and at that point DRYS hadn't setup properly yet. But later on I thought TOPS looked weak and it had a "breakout" but was very weak on the level 2 and it looked like one of those times where it breaks out but that's it. So I had a top tick short and rode it down for over a point but at that point DRYS was really fading and I thought there could be a big washout so I saw TOPS consolidating after making a big move down and I decided to press my bet but adding even more for a bigger wash. Whether or not it was the right thing to do, I'm not sure. I guess I got greedy and maybe misjudged the amount of shorts that had to cover too. Either way I added in and it made new lows but then came right back and went to my average. Now it was at my average with big size so I unfortunately covered out of panic/necessity in case it had to go a lot higher due to shorts covering. It was unfortunate but I guess the lesson here is to cover in these scenarios where everyone is still trapped short and the dips like this will be used for covers. Obviously, it could have kept fading and I wouldn't be writing this. It's hard to say to be honest. I didn't touch it later in the day as it was just consolidating/grinding higher and DRYS was making new highs surprisingly. As far as lessons go, the first short was great and the add is 50/50 to be honest and covering it out of necessity I think was ok because I realized I screwed up and had to eat it. It could have gone a lot higher. I was fearful/confused to short it when the .40s couldn't break out which would have worked for a scalp although it went higher eventually. However, I did reshort it at a meh avg at 5.15 because I thought it looked good on the 1min but this was more 1min BS that I shouldn't be focusing on. I got out of that trade for flat in pieces. It went lower but whatever. So the lesson here is no 1min BS again. Honestly looking back the 1min pattern I thought I saw wasn't even there so the real lesson is to make sure what you are seeing is fact.
ESEA: There are good lessons here this stock. I was interested in it after it looked the best with $5 failing and DRYS looking like it was peaking. The peaking action/stuffs on DRYS were very convincing to me so I shorted the best stock out of all the shippers that looked the weakest. I shorted against $5 but when it broke to $5.10 and looked like it was going higher I covered in a panic and that was the short term top. $5.10 ended up absorbing and then it faded off a bit. Right here is where over/under obviously comes into play. I let the what if get the best of me here and the fear of losing and fear of going red on the day got me to cover. Horrible. At this point I was pretty disgusted with myself. It then came back to $5 so I got in again but this time it broke out a big higher. I was already down at this point and while I wish it didn't stuff like this I had to be prepared for it to do so. I was definitely thinking about getting out for flat, reducing size, etc. My conviction was decreased but still there due to the shorts that could still be in this. I'm not sure if it was me not willing to get out unless it really went higher and to not cover unless I was really wrong/not taking a loss and my conviction but I stayed in it and eventually it hit my target and I got a nice trade out of it. But I am still disgusted how emotional I was while in it and was afraid. While it would have sucked if it went higher, worse has happened to me. Perhaps I have to use less size for these. I'm not sure. Or I should just calm down and if I take the hit then so be it. But I can't trade in the long term like this. I have to remain in the present, be willing to accept the full risk when I enter a trade, and not let the market give me any painful information - everything is neutral.
Things to work on:
1. Having more of a concrete plan.
2. Being ok with over/under. Accepting the full risk for the trade.
3. Letting the stock reject me, not rejecting myself.
4. Be in the present at all times.
5. No more 1min stuff.
X: I saw that the market was gapping up while this was gapping down so I thought it had relative weakness finally and could pullback due to profit taking. It had a nice base of support from premarket so when that peaked and it peaked the prior support from yesterday, I got in on a pop. It worked well similar to yesterday but it ended up holding a support level pretty well so I just got out for flat essentially when it started to push. It's easy to say what a proper setup "should" look like as a stock can do anything before it gives you the move you want but I didn't like how it just pushed so quick above vwap which was now below my entry price. I don't know if the stop out for flat came from a fear of losing money but I guess I had a good feeling it wouldn't work when it had that push. I think if it got under vwap again and peaked again then I would have tried again.
BUD: This play came off of scan. It had long term support at this level and it came quickly down to it on big volume. I wanted to see some confirmation first of it bottoming out before buying. I saw it was flagging after getting a push up above vwap. I tried buying dips but didn't get filled so when it broke the flag I bought the retest. I was looking for it to go to 103 at least but it stalled out in the .70s and I moved my stop up to protect profit. It could have easily hovered around there and then gone further to my target but that's ok. Later in the day, it went to vwap which I missed and then broke to 103s. That would have been a decent entry, but I didn't see it. I did see it afterwards though and it looked like a lower high so I didn't bother with it. It was a lower high but then it had a higher low right after and went up from there. So the lesson here obviously is that anything can happen and thesis/big picture is much more important than how the candles form. The price tells you if you are right or wrong but how you interpret it is up to you. Just because it has a lower high like this doesn't mean it's done with. Obviously, it could have just kept fading back down but the overall picture suggests bounce. Psychologically-wise, while I was in the trade and it went against me for a few cents (basically nothing) I felt like it was just going to be a loser right away and that it was a stupid trade. Then it makes new highs and I think ok maybe this can work. This bipolar shit has to stop. You take a trade, you have a stop area in mind, and a target. That is it. Nothing else. DON'T REJECT YOURSELF, LET THE STOCK REJECT YOU. SAME WITH LIFE.
TOPS: I was interested in this the most because it wasn't HTB like the others. I thought it had stuffed out of the gate and I missed it but it went higher. So there is something to remember here about not all stuffs are it of course. This also held vwap right all the time so there wasn't a reason to short this unless you anticipated the stuff. It did have a nice breakout from 5.50 area but I wasn't really looking at these for a long unless they setup later in the day. Especially with the way DRYS looked which was picture perfect for a short. So it made that big push in the morning but I didn't short that because I was unsure how far these were going to go and at that point DRYS hadn't setup properly yet. But later on I thought TOPS looked weak and it had a "breakout" but was very weak on the level 2 and it looked like one of those times where it breaks out but that's it. So I had a top tick short and rode it down for over a point but at that point DRYS was really fading and I thought there could be a big washout so I saw TOPS consolidating after making a big move down and I decided to press my bet but adding even more for a bigger wash. Whether or not it was the right thing to do, I'm not sure. I guess I got greedy and maybe misjudged the amount of shorts that had to cover too. Either way I added in and it made new lows but then came right back and went to my average. Now it was at my average with big size so I unfortunately covered out of panic/necessity in case it had to go a lot higher due to shorts covering. It was unfortunate but I guess the lesson here is to cover in these scenarios where everyone is still trapped short and the dips like this will be used for covers. Obviously, it could have kept fading and I wouldn't be writing this. It's hard to say to be honest. I didn't touch it later in the day as it was just consolidating/grinding higher and DRYS was making new highs surprisingly. As far as lessons go, the first short was great and the add is 50/50 to be honest and covering it out of necessity I think was ok because I realized I screwed up and had to eat it. It could have gone a lot higher. I was fearful/confused to short it when the .40s couldn't break out which would have worked for a scalp although it went higher eventually. However, I did reshort it at a meh avg at 5.15 because I thought it looked good on the 1min but this was more 1min BS that I shouldn't be focusing on. I got out of that trade for flat in pieces. It went lower but whatever. So the lesson here is no 1min BS again. Honestly looking back the 1min pattern I thought I saw wasn't even there so the real lesson is to make sure what you are seeing is fact.
ESEA: There are good lessons here this stock. I was interested in it after it looked the best with $5 failing and DRYS looking like it was peaking. The peaking action/stuffs on DRYS were very convincing to me so I shorted the best stock out of all the shippers that looked the weakest. I shorted against $5 but when it broke to $5.10 and looked like it was going higher I covered in a panic and that was the short term top. $5.10 ended up absorbing and then it faded off a bit. Right here is where over/under obviously comes into play. I let the what if get the best of me here and the fear of losing and fear of going red on the day got me to cover. Horrible. At this point I was pretty disgusted with myself. It then came back to $5 so I got in again but this time it broke out a big higher. I was already down at this point and while I wish it didn't stuff like this I had to be prepared for it to do so. I was definitely thinking about getting out for flat, reducing size, etc. My conviction was decreased but still there due to the shorts that could still be in this. I'm not sure if it was me not willing to get out unless it really went higher and to not cover unless I was really wrong/not taking a loss and my conviction but I stayed in it and eventually it hit my target and I got a nice trade out of it. But I am still disgusted how emotional I was while in it and was afraid. While it would have sucked if it went higher, worse has happened to me. Perhaps I have to use less size for these. I'm not sure. Or I should just calm down and if I take the hit then so be it. But I can't trade in the long term like this. I have to remain in the present, be willing to accept the full risk when I enter a trade, and not let the market give me any painful information - everything is neutral.
Things to work on:
1. Having more of a concrete plan.
2. Being ok with over/under. Accepting the full risk for the trade.
3. Letting the stock reject me, not rejecting myself.
4. Be in the present at all times.
5. No more 1min stuff.
Monday, November 14, 2016
Trading Recap 11/14/16
Today was a small losing day that was a lot worse before making a small comeback. I know a lot of people got hit hard today on DRYS which I was fortunate enough to not have any borrows on. Overall, since I am hired now I feel a lot less pressure and can trade more freely. While I was down today, had I gotten filled on some other trades, I would have been up.
X: I had this on short watch due to the overextended daily chart and overall thinking that there could be profit taking and buyer exhaustion because it is running up on news that won't take place for a while. So when it stuffed out of the open I shorted at vwap and got a perfect top tick fill there. I was thinking I shouldn't be using vwap in this case but it was holding quite well at that price at that time and there was some premkt resistance around that area that I thought was ok. It ended up working and then I added on the breakdown and after popping back up it came back down and made new lows. I was looking for a decent move for at least $1 before covering. It came back and seemed to have reclaimed some support so I sized down (the support reclaim could have been nothing but when I didn't get an immediate flush lower I decided to play it safe). Once it broke above vwap and held I got out when it wasn't confirming what I thought would happen. I tried it later in the day when I thought it had made new 52s and failed and then stuffed, and had a lower high. Overall, a good pattern but it was just chopping with the market so while I didn't cover at the highs when I was down on it since I was letting it test over/under I just put a bid for breakeven since I didn't like what was going on and that was good because it ended up going higher. Overall, no regrets about taking this. When I first shorted it at vwap I thought it could go higher and that I should ignore vwap but it was holding there for a little so I thought it was good.
PBYI: My first trade on this was a complete deviation on what I do and I definitely paid the price for it. Someone in the office shouted it out so I pulled it up and saw bigger volume on the washout. I had no idea why it was going down or anything like that. So when it seemed to have washed out and been holding I went long and immediately was down a bunch as it flushed more and I stopped out. It went a lot lower so good stop out but horrible process. I didn't know what was going on and just bought because of bigger volume. Well, bigger volume than when I bought came in later on and it washed out a bunch more. So the lesson here is to not catch a falling knife on a play like this. Doing it on a biotech stock like this is different than AAPL or AMZN - although one MUST be absolutely disciplined when playing washouts on those as well. Anyway, the stock came back down and made a new low by a few pennies and had no downward followthrough. I thought that was it but had enough with trying to pick bottoms and obviously these fake bottoms and highs aren't always it. I do wonder if I would have tried the trade had I not taken the prior loss but I don't think so. Anyway, that ended up being the bottom so it came back and then started absorbing huge on $35 bid so I bought in front of that with a stop below it with half the size than my first trade. This ended up working but I was unsure about it since a lot of offers were absorbing at $36 and beyond. I kept increasing my stop to protect profits and to get back some of my stupid loss from before. My stop triggered and I got out and recovered most of my losses but I did get out on a dip where it then ripped. I'm not sure if I would have given it more room had I not been already down on it. Although it went much higher, it was definitely iffy. Overall the lesson here is to know what is going first and second don't pick bottoms like this especially on a biotech name like this. Also, don't think that the big volume you see now won't be bigger on future candles as you have seen many times before. Also, had I used the 3min I wouldn't have gotten in that earlier situation. Sometimes the 1min helps and sometimes it hurts.
Other stocks:
DRYS: Not much to say about this stock other than it is important to always stop out despite most of the time the trade coming back to your entry. The consolidations were nice and had you bought the rips you still made money but most of the time on any other stock buying and chasing like that would make you a loser.
PTCT: I avoided this since I didn't like how it was trading. It definitely stuffed at the open but I didn't trust it because the fact that it gapped up and was still somewhat holding on gave me some pause. Overall, it was a good call. I'm not sure if it was more fear of taking the trade vs. just not being sure and getting a sense that it was stronger than we thought.
NUGT: This one was definitely a miss for me although I had a bid in but it never got hit. I was looking for a clean washout and thought I missed it out of the gate but it went lower. However, once it had a nice set of higher lows I wanted to get in. I did hesitate when I first saw it but when it had a push I put a bid in for a dip buy. It never got there. I guess another entry was buying the breakout of the small consolidation which would have worked. Obviously I hate doing that without having unrealized gains but it would have worked. I guess the only lesson here is to not care so much about the orders when it's just a few cents.
NVDA: I was looking to trade this either way. It flushed then consolidated and had a bear flag look. I thought about shorting it but never did due to fear I think. I wasn't too confident in the setup because I was more long biased after the fact that it had washed out but the price action didn't lie. So that was a mistake there. The only other trade I potentially saw in it was it was consolidating after the flush and I thought we cold get a push up but I never took it because it looked like a bear flag on the hourly so was definitely cautious. It never pushed and instead closed at lows so that was a good use of higher timeframes.
Things to work on:
1. No pressure, no putting dreams, hopes and desires onto each trade.
2. Perhaps use the 3min for the washout long for better idea of volume. Either way just because it has volume at that particular timeframe at that moment, it doesn't mean that is the bottom or top.
3. Use higher timeframes for after morning trades.
4. Don't be so aggressive with limits.
X: I had this on short watch due to the overextended daily chart and overall thinking that there could be profit taking and buyer exhaustion because it is running up on news that won't take place for a while. So when it stuffed out of the open I shorted at vwap and got a perfect top tick fill there. I was thinking I shouldn't be using vwap in this case but it was holding quite well at that price at that time and there was some premkt resistance around that area that I thought was ok. It ended up working and then I added on the breakdown and after popping back up it came back down and made new lows. I was looking for a decent move for at least $1 before covering. It came back and seemed to have reclaimed some support so I sized down (the support reclaim could have been nothing but when I didn't get an immediate flush lower I decided to play it safe). Once it broke above vwap and held I got out when it wasn't confirming what I thought would happen. I tried it later in the day when I thought it had made new 52s and failed and then stuffed, and had a lower high. Overall, a good pattern but it was just chopping with the market so while I didn't cover at the highs when I was down on it since I was letting it test over/under I just put a bid for breakeven since I didn't like what was going on and that was good because it ended up going higher. Overall, no regrets about taking this. When I first shorted it at vwap I thought it could go higher and that I should ignore vwap but it was holding there for a little so I thought it was good.
PBYI: My first trade on this was a complete deviation on what I do and I definitely paid the price for it. Someone in the office shouted it out so I pulled it up and saw bigger volume on the washout. I had no idea why it was going down or anything like that. So when it seemed to have washed out and been holding I went long and immediately was down a bunch as it flushed more and I stopped out. It went a lot lower so good stop out but horrible process. I didn't know what was going on and just bought because of bigger volume. Well, bigger volume than when I bought came in later on and it washed out a bunch more. So the lesson here is to not catch a falling knife on a play like this. Doing it on a biotech stock like this is different than AAPL or AMZN - although one MUST be absolutely disciplined when playing washouts on those as well. Anyway, the stock came back down and made a new low by a few pennies and had no downward followthrough. I thought that was it but had enough with trying to pick bottoms and obviously these fake bottoms and highs aren't always it. I do wonder if I would have tried the trade had I not taken the prior loss but I don't think so. Anyway, that ended up being the bottom so it came back and then started absorbing huge on $35 bid so I bought in front of that with a stop below it with half the size than my first trade. This ended up working but I was unsure about it since a lot of offers were absorbing at $36 and beyond. I kept increasing my stop to protect profits and to get back some of my stupid loss from before. My stop triggered and I got out and recovered most of my losses but I did get out on a dip where it then ripped. I'm not sure if I would have given it more room had I not been already down on it. Although it went much higher, it was definitely iffy. Overall the lesson here is to know what is going first and second don't pick bottoms like this especially on a biotech name like this. Also, don't think that the big volume you see now won't be bigger on future candles as you have seen many times before. Also, had I used the 3min I wouldn't have gotten in that earlier situation. Sometimes the 1min helps and sometimes it hurts.
Other stocks:
DRYS: Not much to say about this stock other than it is important to always stop out despite most of the time the trade coming back to your entry. The consolidations were nice and had you bought the rips you still made money but most of the time on any other stock buying and chasing like that would make you a loser.
PTCT: I avoided this since I didn't like how it was trading. It definitely stuffed at the open but I didn't trust it because the fact that it gapped up and was still somewhat holding on gave me some pause. Overall, it was a good call. I'm not sure if it was more fear of taking the trade vs. just not being sure and getting a sense that it was stronger than we thought.
NUGT: This one was definitely a miss for me although I had a bid in but it never got hit. I was looking for a clean washout and thought I missed it out of the gate but it went lower. However, once it had a nice set of higher lows I wanted to get in. I did hesitate when I first saw it but when it had a push I put a bid in for a dip buy. It never got there. I guess another entry was buying the breakout of the small consolidation which would have worked. Obviously I hate doing that without having unrealized gains but it would have worked. I guess the only lesson here is to not care so much about the orders when it's just a few cents.
NVDA: I was looking to trade this either way. It flushed then consolidated and had a bear flag look. I thought about shorting it but never did due to fear I think. I wasn't too confident in the setup because I was more long biased after the fact that it had washed out but the price action didn't lie. So that was a mistake there. The only other trade I potentially saw in it was it was consolidating after the flush and I thought we cold get a push up but I never took it because it looked like a bear flag on the hourly so was definitely cautious. It never pushed and instead closed at lows so that was a good use of higher timeframes.
Things to work on:
1. No pressure, no putting dreams, hopes and desires onto each trade.
2. Perhaps use the 3min for the washout long for better idea of volume. Either way just because it has volume at that particular timeframe at that moment, it doesn't mean that is the bottom or top.
3. Use higher timeframes for after morning trades.
4. Don't be so aggressive with limits.
Saturday, November 12, 2016
Trading Recap 11/11/16
Friday was a small losing day for me that cold have been a lot more (sound familiar?). But I learned a lot about time of day, when to take certain trades, etc. Namely taking breakouts on the good setups in the morning on these earnings winners. There is a setup/pattern that has worked when I noticed them working in both cases. They offer high r/r so it's not bad and it seems to work often.
DRYS: Even though this trade was a loser, I definitely don't regret taking it. I saw DRYS when it first opened up flush lower and I figured that it would be a trap like most and then rip to the breakout level and fail there like BSPM and RGSE did and some other stocks as well. Before I go further I guess I could have gone long if I thought it would be a trap if it shows some sign of reclaiming a level. It reclaimed the $11 level before ripping. That is a very minute thing to watch and pay attention to (obviously the minute things like that don't always work) but it provides some sort of entry and risk to I guess. It triggered the SSR beautifully and then ripped - a perfect trap. So when I shorted it, it looked very good at that level and it went there parabolic. I got in at a good price and was actually in the money $1 almost but it recollected itself. I wasn't going to just take $1 from this as I knew if that was it, it would have faded a lot more so that was part of the plan. I wanted to add into it on confirmation. It eventually broke out past the level and I covered which was good. It wasn't doing what I thought. I wouldn't have gone long here since I didn't know what to expect but it was a good thing I covered. On the way up it didn't provide much opportunity for me. I guess once it went above the prior day's high a buy after the unhalt could have been ok but with the amount of times I have seen a halt be the top, it wasn't worth it. The only noteworthy trades that I saw but didn't take was when it broke out of a small range at the highs. I had a feeling this was it and people would chase the breakout or it would stop people out. It just had that look and I had that intuition. That intuition was completely right. When it confirmed by getting below the breakout spot again I tried putting up offers but didn't get filled unfortunately. The only other trade in it was the $17 stuff that I had a good feeling about as well. Did not take that at all unfortunately. My gut instinct was completely right on this one. I think I was just feeling that oh this stuff might not be it and some stuffs don't work - completely wrong line of thinking and unhelpful as mentioned in a prior post.
LABU: I saw it peak r/g and then come under vwap. It was a stupid trade that I really didn't have any plan for. I just entered when it got under vwap and came under the prior resistance a bit. On the one hand I thought it could work due to the pattern but also because the market could pullback along with the biotechs. I thought there was some irrationality within the past week so that provided the thesis for the trade. The thing is I just went in and didn't look at how much I was risking exactly and right after I got in I thought oh this could just be another dip..fuck. That is a very bad line of thinking. Now it ended up working for a little and I stopped myself out for a small profit because I knew it was a stupid trade and I wasn't going to take any chances. Definitely not my finest moment although I came out with a tiny profit. Part of it was just gut instinct I think but the other part was wanting to make back the DRYS loss which is stupid.
VRX: Just a scalp that I went flat on because of the breakeven stop. I didn't want to lose on this trade (which means I shouldn't have been in it in the first place). I just thought I could get a nice scalp out of it but I didn't know why it was up and didn't have a lot of confidence in it. The trade ended up working a bit but didn't reach my target and eventually it went higher. I should probably avoid trades like this going forward.
NVDA: This one was a definite miss and fuckup but I learned a lot. I completely missed the morning move on this. I thought about putting a bid at support for the top to see if we got a quick wash and rebound. That is exactly what happened but I never did it because "I didn't know if it would flush more". Completely useless line of thinking again. Just get in there - if it doesn't work, it doesn't work. You take a hit but nothing crazy. Had I done that I could have given it some room to the whole number below. Had I done that though then when I saw a nice level using the 2min chart that worked similar to SHAK yesterday then I could have pressed more with a little unrealized gain and get a decent win. It consolidated again and broke out which would have been a decent try again. I would have been more protection on this breakout and given it a tighter risk but that would have worked. Later on, the stupid trade I took was drawing a flag and trendline on it and buying the top of it. I stopped out at the bottom. Trying to buy breakouts at that time of the day is not good. Had I seen the flag (and I think these have to develop for a longer period of time) then you have to buy at support then maybe add on the flag break when it has consolidated long enough.
Other stocks:
NUGT: Didn't short the bear flag which looked nice and on the 5min timeframe as well.
PTCT: I am glad I avoided this in the morning. My plan was to short pops when 10.50s confirmed as peak but it just hovered around there. It then went higher probably from shorts who were stuck and covered. It made a fake high so that was a good short I guess. But I really wasn't sure about it at the time. When it ended up consolidating at the lows below the support that was a good opportunity. It definitely was "the pattern" that works pretty much all the time. The thing with this though was it must have been crowded/manipulated because it reclaimed from there and went higher. The only other trade was the stop gunning at the end of the day for a scalp but I didn't want to bother with it being so late in the day.
Things to work on:
1. Buying breakouts with key levels at the open and buying at premkt support levels on smaller size to test things out.
2. No unhelpful thinking at all like "it might or might not work". Also trust your gut/intuition.
3. Don't buy breakouts from flags later in the day. Wait for more confirmation instead of a little perk above the trendline. You have seen that fakeout so many times before - going in anyway comes from FOMO. Also, buy at support if it holds up. Then when it breaks out for real and clearly you can add with some some house's money and push it.
4. Make sure to wait for peaking/holding action like on PTCT.
DRYS: Even though this trade was a loser, I definitely don't regret taking it. I saw DRYS when it first opened up flush lower and I figured that it would be a trap like most and then rip to the breakout level and fail there like BSPM and RGSE did and some other stocks as well. Before I go further I guess I could have gone long if I thought it would be a trap if it shows some sign of reclaiming a level. It reclaimed the $11 level before ripping. That is a very minute thing to watch and pay attention to (obviously the minute things like that don't always work) but it provides some sort of entry and risk to I guess. It triggered the SSR beautifully and then ripped - a perfect trap. So when I shorted it, it looked very good at that level and it went there parabolic. I got in at a good price and was actually in the money $1 almost but it recollected itself. I wasn't going to just take $1 from this as I knew if that was it, it would have faded a lot more so that was part of the plan. I wanted to add into it on confirmation. It eventually broke out past the level and I covered which was good. It wasn't doing what I thought. I wouldn't have gone long here since I didn't know what to expect but it was a good thing I covered. On the way up it didn't provide much opportunity for me. I guess once it went above the prior day's high a buy after the unhalt could have been ok but with the amount of times I have seen a halt be the top, it wasn't worth it. The only noteworthy trades that I saw but didn't take was when it broke out of a small range at the highs. I had a feeling this was it and people would chase the breakout or it would stop people out. It just had that look and I had that intuition. That intuition was completely right. When it confirmed by getting below the breakout spot again I tried putting up offers but didn't get filled unfortunately. The only other trade in it was the $17 stuff that I had a good feeling about as well. Did not take that at all unfortunately. My gut instinct was completely right on this one. I think I was just feeling that oh this stuff might not be it and some stuffs don't work - completely wrong line of thinking and unhelpful as mentioned in a prior post.
LABU: I saw it peak r/g and then come under vwap. It was a stupid trade that I really didn't have any plan for. I just entered when it got under vwap and came under the prior resistance a bit. On the one hand I thought it could work due to the pattern but also because the market could pullback along with the biotechs. I thought there was some irrationality within the past week so that provided the thesis for the trade. The thing is I just went in and didn't look at how much I was risking exactly and right after I got in I thought oh this could just be another dip..fuck. That is a very bad line of thinking. Now it ended up working for a little and I stopped myself out for a small profit because I knew it was a stupid trade and I wasn't going to take any chances. Definitely not my finest moment although I came out with a tiny profit. Part of it was just gut instinct I think but the other part was wanting to make back the DRYS loss which is stupid.
VRX: Just a scalp that I went flat on because of the breakeven stop. I didn't want to lose on this trade (which means I shouldn't have been in it in the first place). I just thought I could get a nice scalp out of it but I didn't know why it was up and didn't have a lot of confidence in it. The trade ended up working a bit but didn't reach my target and eventually it went higher. I should probably avoid trades like this going forward.
NVDA: This one was a definite miss and fuckup but I learned a lot. I completely missed the morning move on this. I thought about putting a bid at support for the top to see if we got a quick wash and rebound. That is exactly what happened but I never did it because "I didn't know if it would flush more". Completely useless line of thinking again. Just get in there - if it doesn't work, it doesn't work. You take a hit but nothing crazy. Had I done that I could have given it some room to the whole number below. Had I done that though then when I saw a nice level using the 2min chart that worked similar to SHAK yesterday then I could have pressed more with a little unrealized gain and get a decent win. It consolidated again and broke out which would have been a decent try again. I would have been more protection on this breakout and given it a tighter risk but that would have worked. Later on, the stupid trade I took was drawing a flag and trendline on it and buying the top of it. I stopped out at the bottom. Trying to buy breakouts at that time of the day is not good. Had I seen the flag (and I think these have to develop for a longer period of time) then you have to buy at support then maybe add on the flag break when it has consolidated long enough.
Other stocks:
NUGT: Didn't short the bear flag which looked nice and on the 5min timeframe as well.
PTCT: I am glad I avoided this in the morning. My plan was to short pops when 10.50s confirmed as peak but it just hovered around there. It then went higher probably from shorts who were stuck and covered. It made a fake high so that was a good short I guess. But I really wasn't sure about it at the time. When it ended up consolidating at the lows below the support that was a good opportunity. It definitely was "the pattern" that works pretty much all the time. The thing with this though was it must have been crowded/manipulated because it reclaimed from there and went higher. The only other trade was the stop gunning at the end of the day for a scalp but I didn't want to bother with it being so late in the day.
Things to work on:
1. Buying breakouts with key levels at the open and buying at premkt support levels on smaller size to test things out.
2. No unhelpful thinking at all like "it might or might not work". Also trust your gut/intuition.
3. Don't buy breakouts from flags later in the day. Wait for more confirmation instead of a little perk above the trendline. You have seen that fakeout so many times before - going in anyway comes from FOMO. Also, buy at support if it holds up. Then when it breaks out for real and clearly you can add with some some house's money and push it.
4. Make sure to wait for peaking/holding action like on PTCT.
Thursday, November 10, 2016
Trading Recap 11/10/16
Frustrating day with being down a decent amount. There were some key errors that basically came down to: not wanting to miss out on what others were doing (again!) and not giving things enough room due to doing big size in order to make back losses/get some wins and join the action.
SHAK: I knew I wanted to get long based on the earnings/short float. I saw it was at premkt support at the open but wasn't sure if it was going to go lower first. Then it started going up and then it ripped so I missed that trade. What I could have done here is start in with small size and see what happens. Either average in and see or add to a winner. I seemed to have missed this lesson I should have learned weeks ago and that I have mentioned on this blog. SMALL GAIN > BIG LOSS. Even if I never added to it and kept the partial, it still would have been a nice win. I thought about buying the new high and when it crossed over vwap (which I should be giving less significance to at the open!), but didn't want to buy a fakeout. I guess it depends on the stock you do on but I could have again done small size and risk to the lows. It then gave me an opportunity to add by consolidating for a bit before going higher so that was another entry/add point. Anyway, later on it had a huge volume breakout that I thought was it but it continued higher so that's another reason to not just think things are done with because of the huge volume. It is a good place to sell some into though just in case. Where I did eventually enter was on a tight consolidation on the 1min where it looked like it flushed, came back, and held the prior support. So this I could have legitimately risked a little bit because that was the pattern and it did work by perking quickly off that level but I was looking for more and it never came. I had a breakeven stop put it, it triggered, and then it went back up, made a new high, and then came back down. The breakeven stop was bad in this case. It was ok that I didn't sell it when it popped since I was expecting more. I tried it again when it was holding up and the market was tanking. I figured it had relative strength and when it held an uptrend I got in. I stopped out when it went under the trendline and that was it. It could have worked but it made a false high and I guess just because something wasn't tanking yet doesn't mean it won't soon. So lesson learned there although the fake high could have been anything and I knew that.
TASR: Basically I tried buying this at vwap since I missed the open pop. Looking back, the break above 27 was good with a stop over/under vwap. I will look for that more at the open. I then put a bid at vwap which got filled and gave it to $27 over/under. It worked for a bit but then it just formed a lower high and sold off along with the market. Nothing to do about that. Only thing to work on was to get the $27 breakout.
UVXY: I tried shorting this but gave it too little room. It gave a nice pattern but I knew intuitively that it wouldn't work in this case because at the time I took the trade I knew the market had to maybe flush out or retest the low before possibly coming back up and bouncing. So I gave the trade too little room and I was in with bigger size since I wasn't making any money that the others were making at the time from the market fade. So I had the right idea but gave it too little room and knew that it wouldn't work but took it anyway. That is a serious problem that was due to FOMO, comparing myself to others, etc.
NUGT: Basically shorted the $12 retest because the way the mkt faded and gold/NUGT not doing anything signaled that it was weak and could go lower. I didn't give it enough room and just stopped out near the top of course. One thing to note here is it did a few fakeouts before eventually fading. You must be prepared for anything that happens and stick to your plan. If that means giving things enough room with less size then so be it. SMALLER GAIN > LOSS. Eventually it ended up doing exactly what I thought it would, of course. Had I used less size and given it more room like so many other trades I would have had a nice win instead of a stupid loss.
Other stocks:
Everything was fading rapidly and I was unprepared for a move like that. The whole time I didn't want to chase but they kept going lower. While I could just say that these aren't my specialty and I should avoid them, I think they are useful to learn how to trade. The biggest thing to takeaway is to be ok with shorting breakdowns in these scenarios and not being afraid to buy the washout on big volume. Make sure to give it enough room though because it can double dip like it did on AAPL on the washout. For shorting breakdowns the best thing to do is see if it works right away and has followthrough. If so then ok but if it rebounds a bit just cover partial just in case. But looking at all of the charts like AMZN, NFLX, BABA, AAPL, etc - some were very clean and others were not clean at all. The best chance I think is to just trade the ones that have a very clear setup - notably AAPL and AMZN vs the others. You don't know which ones are going to be clean though so the best thing to do is just wait for the best setups. DO NOT JUST GO IN WILLY NILLY WITHOUT A PLAN THINKING IT HAS TO WORK.
Also on a stock like KSS, just looking at it now - once it broke past the resistance and you miss it - don't just write it off. It did bid absorb quite a bit at 50.20 where you could have risked off of. This is all hindsight of course as you have seen PLENTY of times where it just gets taken out so not worth it.
Things to work on:
1. GIVE THINGS ENOUGH ROOM. A STOCK CAN DO ANYTHING BEFORE IT MAKES IT'S MOVE IN YOUR DIRECTION. DON'T BE WHIPSAWED OUT. USE LESS SIZE IF NEED BE.
2. NO FOMO + COMPARING YOURSELF TO OTHERS. FOCUS ON YOU.
3. LOOK FOR STUFF AT THE OPEN TO GO OFF OF LIKE THE TASR $27 B/O OR START IN WITH SMALL SIZE AT A POTENTIAL SUPPORT AREA LIKE SHAK.
SHAK: I knew I wanted to get long based on the earnings/short float. I saw it was at premkt support at the open but wasn't sure if it was going to go lower first. Then it started going up and then it ripped so I missed that trade. What I could have done here is start in with small size and see what happens. Either average in and see or add to a winner. I seemed to have missed this lesson I should have learned weeks ago and that I have mentioned on this blog. SMALL GAIN > BIG LOSS. Even if I never added to it and kept the partial, it still would have been a nice win. I thought about buying the new high and when it crossed over vwap (which I should be giving less significance to at the open!), but didn't want to buy a fakeout. I guess it depends on the stock you do on but I could have again done small size and risk to the lows. It then gave me an opportunity to add by consolidating for a bit before going higher so that was another entry/add point. Anyway, later on it had a huge volume breakout that I thought was it but it continued higher so that's another reason to not just think things are done with because of the huge volume. It is a good place to sell some into though just in case. Where I did eventually enter was on a tight consolidation on the 1min where it looked like it flushed, came back, and held the prior support. So this I could have legitimately risked a little bit because that was the pattern and it did work by perking quickly off that level but I was looking for more and it never came. I had a breakeven stop put it, it triggered, and then it went back up, made a new high, and then came back down. The breakeven stop was bad in this case. It was ok that I didn't sell it when it popped since I was expecting more. I tried it again when it was holding up and the market was tanking. I figured it had relative strength and when it held an uptrend I got in. I stopped out when it went under the trendline and that was it. It could have worked but it made a false high and I guess just because something wasn't tanking yet doesn't mean it won't soon. So lesson learned there although the fake high could have been anything and I knew that.
TASR: Basically I tried buying this at vwap since I missed the open pop. Looking back, the break above 27 was good with a stop over/under vwap. I will look for that more at the open. I then put a bid at vwap which got filled and gave it to $27 over/under. It worked for a bit but then it just formed a lower high and sold off along with the market. Nothing to do about that. Only thing to work on was to get the $27 breakout.
UVXY: I tried shorting this but gave it too little room. It gave a nice pattern but I knew intuitively that it wouldn't work in this case because at the time I took the trade I knew the market had to maybe flush out or retest the low before possibly coming back up and bouncing. So I gave the trade too little room and I was in with bigger size since I wasn't making any money that the others were making at the time from the market fade. So I had the right idea but gave it too little room and knew that it wouldn't work but took it anyway. That is a serious problem that was due to FOMO, comparing myself to others, etc.
NUGT: Basically shorted the $12 retest because the way the mkt faded and gold/NUGT not doing anything signaled that it was weak and could go lower. I didn't give it enough room and just stopped out near the top of course. One thing to note here is it did a few fakeouts before eventually fading. You must be prepared for anything that happens and stick to your plan. If that means giving things enough room with less size then so be it. SMALLER GAIN > LOSS. Eventually it ended up doing exactly what I thought it would, of course. Had I used less size and given it more room like so many other trades I would have had a nice win instead of a stupid loss.
Other stocks:
Everything was fading rapidly and I was unprepared for a move like that. The whole time I didn't want to chase but they kept going lower. While I could just say that these aren't my specialty and I should avoid them, I think they are useful to learn how to trade. The biggest thing to takeaway is to be ok with shorting breakdowns in these scenarios and not being afraid to buy the washout on big volume. Make sure to give it enough room though because it can double dip like it did on AAPL on the washout. For shorting breakdowns the best thing to do is see if it works right away and has followthrough. If so then ok but if it rebounds a bit just cover partial just in case. But looking at all of the charts like AMZN, NFLX, BABA, AAPL, etc - some were very clean and others were not clean at all. The best chance I think is to just trade the ones that have a very clear setup - notably AAPL and AMZN vs the others. You don't know which ones are going to be clean though so the best thing to do is just wait for the best setups. DO NOT JUST GO IN WILLY NILLY WITHOUT A PLAN THINKING IT HAS TO WORK.
Also on a stock like KSS, just looking at it now - once it broke past the resistance and you miss it - don't just write it off. It did bid absorb quite a bit at 50.20 where you could have risked off of. This is all hindsight of course as you have seen PLENTY of times where it just gets taken out so not worth it.
Things to work on:
1. GIVE THINGS ENOUGH ROOM. A STOCK CAN DO ANYTHING BEFORE IT MAKES IT'S MOVE IN YOUR DIRECTION. DON'T BE WHIPSAWED OUT. USE LESS SIZE IF NEED BE.
2. NO FOMO + COMPARING YOURSELF TO OTHERS. FOCUS ON YOU.
3. LOOK FOR STUFF AT THE OPEN TO GO OFF OF LIKE THE TASR $27 B/O OR START IN WITH SMALL SIZE AT A POTENTIAL SUPPORT AREA LIKE SHAK.
Trading Recap 11/9/16
Wednesday I was up. I did some stupid trades at the open because "I just wanted to get in" and I saw others making trades and making money so I didn't want to be left out. I have to realize I have to do my own thing and forget what others may be doing. The only good trade I made was later on when I could analyze the situation. That is where my strength is. I also looked at the 1min chart too often and was taken out of trades or entered trades that I wouldn't have done had I used a bigger timeframe chart.
HTZ: My plan on this was to short if it got under premarket support and peaked. I saw it stuffed on the 1min with big volume near the lows so I shorted it there but that ended up being a low instead and while I let it test out vwap it just came back up and I got out. I shorted what ended up being the low for the day. Had I used another timeframe I would have at least waited for the $26 pop to get in. It still wouldn't have worked but perhaps I would have gotten a better entry. While the trade wouldn't have worked, it was one of those that it was worth a shot and wouldn't have minded taking the loss.
UVXY: Basically used the 1min to try something that didn't work and then never got back in despite having the right idea all along. Also just because a stock looks like it reclaims doesn't mean it really did unless proven otherwise as mentioned before.
CXW: I didn't bother with this in the morning but when it had a nice setup of higher lows I went long on a dip to support even though it had perked through vwap before. I realized that anything could happen and was overall more bullish than anything else. I sold half when it went up $1 quickly then when I got another big push which signaled the top I sold the rest. While the trade was still iffy and under vwap I wasn't sure if I had the right idea but it goes to show of course that thesis/big picture > minute price action.
Things to work on:
1. Thesis > big picture > minute price action
2. Don't try the 1min bullshit for the most part. Yeah it works sometimes but overall it's not worth it.
3. With the fade at the open pattern, just take it despite it looking like it made a bottom in premkt.
4. DON'T CARE WHAT OTHERS ARE DOING. FOCUS ON YOU.
HTZ: My plan on this was to short if it got under premarket support and peaked. I saw it stuffed on the 1min with big volume near the lows so I shorted it there but that ended up being a low instead and while I let it test out vwap it just came back up and I got out. I shorted what ended up being the low for the day. Had I used another timeframe I would have at least waited for the $26 pop to get in. It still wouldn't have worked but perhaps I would have gotten a better entry. While the trade wouldn't have worked, it was one of those that it was worth a shot and wouldn't have minded taking the loss.
UVXY: Basically used the 1min to try something that didn't work and then never got back in despite having the right idea all along. Also just because a stock looks like it reclaims doesn't mean it really did unless proven otherwise as mentioned before.
CXW: I didn't bother with this in the morning but when it had a nice setup of higher lows I went long on a dip to support even though it had perked through vwap before. I realized that anything could happen and was overall more bullish than anything else. I sold half when it went up $1 quickly then when I got another big push which signaled the top I sold the rest. While the trade was still iffy and under vwap I wasn't sure if I had the right idea but it goes to show of course that thesis/big picture > minute price action.
Things to work on:
1. Thesis > big picture > minute price action
2. Don't try the 1min bullshit for the most part. Yeah it works sometimes but overall it's not worth it.
3. With the fade at the open pattern, just take it despite it looking like it made a bottom in premkt.
4. DON'T CARE WHAT OTHERS ARE DOING. FOCUS ON YOU.
Trading Recap 11/8/16
Very slightly up today. Could have been more, could have been a lot worse. I know a lot of people got wrecked today so I stayed safe at least. Overall decent trading although there could be improvements. Notably I have to focus on when to get long for bounces on some of these names if they show some bounce at the open and are holding. One thing I have to remember is to use the over/under levels from premarket to help guide decision making.
CVS: I saw the bad earnings and guidance so was more short biased but it wasn't horrible so it could have bounced. It's tough to have picked a spot besides the breakout but it didn't really provide a tight area to risk off of. I was more interested in a short though once it went straight up towards $73 where there was a decent seller. It ended up working well but I had a cover at vwap and it never hit it. I was confident that it would at least get down to it but it never did and I got out for breakeven. I'm not sure if there is something to learn from this. There have been plenty of times that I covered way too early as well so sometimes it works out and sometimes it doesn't. What I could have done is to keep it on instead of putting a breakeven stop and then covering at low 72s which would have been much better. My desire to not lose overrided the belief that this was still a good trade. I thought to myself "I'm not going to lose on this trade after I was up". The other thing to note is the fake breakout over $73 that washed people out - so unless there is a lot of momentum don't buy breakouts like that. On the other hand the other thing to note is despite the stuff, it recollected, had a higher low, and kept going up. So a stuff like that isn't always it as I have mentioned before.
HTZ: This had the exact same very good pattern at the open where it just fades all premarket and then peaks vwap at the open and just fades. I knew this was forming the pattern but it looked like it had bottomed in premkt with big volume so I avoided taking it. The pattern still worked so I will keep that in mind going forward. Always take the pattern. Afterwards, I saw it forming a nice pattern for a long so I got in and it worked great. Unfortunately, I put a stop under vwap when it got above it (my original plan was to sell it at vwap anyway so when it got above it I just put a stop below it to see what would happen). It obviously ended up going much higher. The only other setup was the flag later in the day that it broke out from. It was a good thing that I didn't short it and there was no real short setup as it was just grinding higher. Also, the biggest volume here wasn't the top. This is a rare scenario of just pure institutional buying so not worth shorting. Buying any quick rug pulls can be profitable though. As for the stop on my trade this was a unique scenario where an institution was just buying. In other cases what I did would have been ok I think. Obviously I could have maybe lowed the stop a few cents to the support area where it went to exactly. I'll keep that in mind although again this was a unique situation.
TSLA: Bottom line on this is I tried to predict and pick a top instead of waiting for it to tell me it wanted to fade. Had I waited for that signal, I wouldn't have top ticked my cover and I would have captured the exact move I thought would happen the entire time.
Other stocks:
VRX: The only thing to note is the head and shoulders like pattern that I see didn't work here. It did go higher before coming back down and eventually breaking support. Something to keep in mind.
IONS: Only thing to note was that I was thinking of buying a breakout above a consolidation level on the 1min in the morning but knew there was a seller near so didn't take it. Again it was on the 1min so I didn't want to bother with it and sure enough it met a seller there and that was the top. I didn't know what to think of it though since the seller could have exhausted so I wasn't too sure about a short. I was thinking about shorting it lows but remembered I have to look at bigger timeframes to establish the minute patterns vs. what could be lows/highs. Also, these tend to not do much so shorting at vwap/stuffs and buying at lows work well on these phase # gap ups.
MOMO: I missed the nice consolidation and flush using the 2min charts but it's give and take with this. The other thing to note is the fake low, squeeze out chaser shorts, then continue lower. Again, sometimes these fake lows are it and sometimes not.
Things to work on:
1. Use over/under levels from premarket for forming long/short bias.
2. Don't pick tops. Wait for the backside.
3. Phase # gap ups tend to consolidate.
CVS: I saw the bad earnings and guidance so was more short biased but it wasn't horrible so it could have bounced. It's tough to have picked a spot besides the breakout but it didn't really provide a tight area to risk off of. I was more interested in a short though once it went straight up towards $73 where there was a decent seller. It ended up working well but I had a cover at vwap and it never hit it. I was confident that it would at least get down to it but it never did and I got out for breakeven. I'm not sure if there is something to learn from this. There have been plenty of times that I covered way too early as well so sometimes it works out and sometimes it doesn't. What I could have done is to keep it on instead of putting a breakeven stop and then covering at low 72s which would have been much better. My desire to not lose overrided the belief that this was still a good trade. I thought to myself "I'm not going to lose on this trade after I was up". The other thing to note is the fake breakout over $73 that washed people out - so unless there is a lot of momentum don't buy breakouts like that. On the other hand the other thing to note is despite the stuff, it recollected, had a higher low, and kept going up. So a stuff like that isn't always it as I have mentioned before.
HTZ: This had the exact same very good pattern at the open where it just fades all premarket and then peaks vwap at the open and just fades. I knew this was forming the pattern but it looked like it had bottomed in premkt with big volume so I avoided taking it. The pattern still worked so I will keep that in mind going forward. Always take the pattern. Afterwards, I saw it forming a nice pattern for a long so I got in and it worked great. Unfortunately, I put a stop under vwap when it got above it (my original plan was to sell it at vwap anyway so when it got above it I just put a stop below it to see what would happen). It obviously ended up going much higher. The only other setup was the flag later in the day that it broke out from. It was a good thing that I didn't short it and there was no real short setup as it was just grinding higher. Also, the biggest volume here wasn't the top. This is a rare scenario of just pure institutional buying so not worth shorting. Buying any quick rug pulls can be profitable though. As for the stop on my trade this was a unique scenario where an institution was just buying. In other cases what I did would have been ok I think. Obviously I could have maybe lowed the stop a few cents to the support area where it went to exactly. I'll keep that in mind although again this was a unique situation.
TSLA: Bottom line on this is I tried to predict and pick a top instead of waiting for it to tell me it wanted to fade. Had I waited for that signal, I wouldn't have top ticked my cover and I would have captured the exact move I thought would happen the entire time.
Other stocks:
VRX: The only thing to note is the head and shoulders like pattern that I see didn't work here. It did go higher before coming back down and eventually breaking support. Something to keep in mind.
IONS: Only thing to note was that I was thinking of buying a breakout above a consolidation level on the 1min in the morning but knew there was a seller near so didn't take it. Again it was on the 1min so I didn't want to bother with it and sure enough it met a seller there and that was the top. I didn't know what to think of it though since the seller could have exhausted so I wasn't too sure about a short. I was thinking about shorting it lows but remembered I have to look at bigger timeframes to establish the minute patterns vs. what could be lows/highs. Also, these tend to not do much so shorting at vwap/stuffs and buying at lows work well on these phase # gap ups.
MOMO: I missed the nice consolidation and flush using the 2min charts but it's give and take with this. The other thing to note is the fake low, squeeze out chaser shorts, then continue lower. Again, sometimes these fake lows are it and sometimes not.
Things to work on:
1. Use over/under levels from premarket for forming long/short bias.
2. Don't pick tops. Wait for the backside.
3. Phase # gap ups tend to consolidate.
Monday, November 7, 2016
Trading Recap 11/7/16
Today I just traded one name in the morning. It was a good trade and it was pretty quick. I didn't want to overtrade that much with the current environment being uncertain. However, there were other opportunities throughout the day that would have worked nicely. I was legitimately unsure on some of them but the others I think it comes down to not wanting to give up the profit I had in the morning. It was the fear of losing/giving back realized gains. I didn't fully accept the risk of the other trades so I didn't take them. For me to get to the next level, this feeling will have to go away. How will I work on this? I think it will just take time for my beliefs to adjust to the point where I honestly have the confidence to say that an idea I have will more likely than not be profitable and thus not taking any particular trade will result in reduced profits in the long run.
LIVE: I shorted after the stuff and covered on the wash and that was it. Quick and easy trade. I was originally going to take this off watch since most of the gap was gone but I kept it on and when I saw the blatant stuff I had to just short. I figured it wouldn't go down that much more although I have been wrong before so I got put my bid in at r/g and that was it for the rest of the day.
Other stocks:
GPRO: I was looking for more fade today and wanted to see some decent clues before going in. At the open it was right under vwap but I didn't take that since that wasn't enough evidence, which was fine. I saw it come off a bit and then thought vwap pops would be ok. It went to vwap and through it and then came off, retested and that was it. First lesson here is to give things enough room - it retested the first failed retest and went above it by a penny. When it got under the resistance again, that was a clear sign to get in which I didn't take. That was a mistake. At the time I thought maybe it can bounce and I wasn't sure it could keep fading but those were just excuses to not get in. Other lesson to learn from the chart is it made a fake low and bounced and then went lower - I knew this already but again sometimes fake lows/highs are it and sometimes they aren't.
IONS: This was hard to read in the morning as there was definitely a buyer there but also a seller at the 34.20s level. I initially was going to leave it alone unless it did something pretty clear. I saw it had rebounded and then formed a tight consolidation on the 1min. I thought it looked good for a long but I knew there was a seller there in the low 34s so I waited. While it would have worked for a scalp on the long side for a few cents, I saw it couldn't get past that level and it stuffed from there. That should have been an indicator to short I guess but I wasn't really sure what was going on. I don't think it fear based here to not take the trade but rather just being confused and not knowing if it would keep fading or just recollect and possibly go higher. Later on I thought about shorting it when it looked like it had a fake breakout but that ended up just being a higher low - good to consult higher timeframes. The stuff at vwap was pretty good and I guess I should have taken that but honestly I wasn't sure at that point still what could happen. If they worked out sellers and it could go higher or not. The real lesson here is that on these phase news gap ups they usually just consolidate and don't do much for most of the day.
LC: I was interested in fading this since the earnings weren't that great and most of these earnings names had been getting faded. In the morning I saw it have some failed followthrough and it was under vwap but I said it would be better if it peaked .75s since that was the main level. That turned out to be a good move because it just went off support and went higher. It had a fake high later on and just did nothing for most of the day. It looked good for a fade when it kept having lower highs above $6 but I rather wait for the backside and retest of $6 at that point. Lesson: Good to wait for confirmation. It held the support and even though it was peaking and under vwap, that didn't matter. Again, disregard vwap in these circumstances.
UVXY: I wanted to long it because I thought we would have an all day fade on SPY but it never setup and it never looked strong although it did hold up for a while while SPY was going up before making new lows. Again UVXY holding up while SPY goes higher is not a reason to go long.
TWLO: The main reason I didn't short it was because I was looking for a potential long after it washed out and setup so when it went back to vwap I didn't short it because I thought it could setup for a long but it never did and just kept fading. Not sure there is any lesson here. I did think about shorting at vwap but was unsure if it could rebound more since the earnings were decent.
CEMP: This was another miss. I thought it was sketchy that it wasn't going higher and was starting to give up its gap in premkt. Once it came under the 8.30 level that was a sign to me that it could fade more but I wasn't sure since I thought it go back up since the news essentially negated what made it go down in the first place. I guess I should just trade the price action in this case as it looked very good otherwise for a fade since it was consolidating under that important $8.3 level.
Things to work on:
1. Fear of losing/giving back gains.
2. Give things enough room and use the appropriate size so you can add at the right times.
3. Disregard vwap in certain scenarios.
LIVE: I shorted after the stuff and covered on the wash and that was it. Quick and easy trade. I was originally going to take this off watch since most of the gap was gone but I kept it on and when I saw the blatant stuff I had to just short. I figured it wouldn't go down that much more although I have been wrong before so I got put my bid in at r/g and that was it for the rest of the day.
Other stocks:
GPRO: I was looking for more fade today and wanted to see some decent clues before going in. At the open it was right under vwap but I didn't take that since that wasn't enough evidence, which was fine. I saw it come off a bit and then thought vwap pops would be ok. It went to vwap and through it and then came off, retested and that was it. First lesson here is to give things enough room - it retested the first failed retest and went above it by a penny. When it got under the resistance again, that was a clear sign to get in which I didn't take. That was a mistake. At the time I thought maybe it can bounce and I wasn't sure it could keep fading but those were just excuses to not get in. Other lesson to learn from the chart is it made a fake low and bounced and then went lower - I knew this already but again sometimes fake lows/highs are it and sometimes they aren't.
IONS: This was hard to read in the morning as there was definitely a buyer there but also a seller at the 34.20s level. I initially was going to leave it alone unless it did something pretty clear. I saw it had rebounded and then formed a tight consolidation on the 1min. I thought it looked good for a long but I knew there was a seller there in the low 34s so I waited. While it would have worked for a scalp on the long side for a few cents, I saw it couldn't get past that level and it stuffed from there. That should have been an indicator to short I guess but I wasn't really sure what was going on. I don't think it fear based here to not take the trade but rather just being confused and not knowing if it would keep fading or just recollect and possibly go higher. Later on I thought about shorting it when it looked like it had a fake breakout but that ended up just being a higher low - good to consult higher timeframes. The stuff at vwap was pretty good and I guess I should have taken that but honestly I wasn't sure at that point still what could happen. If they worked out sellers and it could go higher or not. The real lesson here is that on these phase news gap ups they usually just consolidate and don't do much for most of the day.
LC: I was interested in fading this since the earnings weren't that great and most of these earnings names had been getting faded. In the morning I saw it have some failed followthrough and it was under vwap but I said it would be better if it peaked .75s since that was the main level. That turned out to be a good move because it just went off support and went higher. It had a fake high later on and just did nothing for most of the day. It looked good for a fade when it kept having lower highs above $6 but I rather wait for the backside and retest of $6 at that point. Lesson: Good to wait for confirmation. It held the support and even though it was peaking and under vwap, that didn't matter. Again, disregard vwap in these circumstances.
UVXY: I wanted to long it because I thought we would have an all day fade on SPY but it never setup and it never looked strong although it did hold up for a while while SPY was going up before making new lows. Again UVXY holding up while SPY goes higher is not a reason to go long.
TWLO: The main reason I didn't short it was because I was looking for a potential long after it washed out and setup so when it went back to vwap I didn't short it because I thought it could setup for a long but it never did and just kept fading. Not sure there is any lesson here. I did think about shorting at vwap but was unsure if it could rebound more since the earnings were decent.
CEMP: This was another miss. I thought it was sketchy that it wasn't going higher and was starting to give up its gap in premkt. Once it came under the 8.30 level that was a sign to me that it could fade more but I wasn't sure since I thought it go back up since the news essentially negated what made it go down in the first place. I guess I should just trade the price action in this case as it looked very good otherwise for a fade since it was consolidating under that important $8.3 level.
Things to work on:
1. Fear of losing/giving back gains.
2. Give things enough room and use the appropriate size so you can add at the right times.
3. Disregard vwap in certain scenarios.
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