Today was a small losing day that was a lot worse before making a small comeback. I know a lot of people got hit hard today on DRYS which I was fortunate enough to not have any borrows on. Overall, since I am hired now I feel a lot less pressure and can trade more freely. While I was down today, had I gotten filled on some other trades, I would have been up.
X: I had this on short watch due to the overextended daily chart and overall thinking that there could be profit taking and buyer exhaustion because it is running up on news that won't take place for a while. So when it stuffed out of the open I shorted at vwap and got a perfect top tick fill there. I was thinking I shouldn't be using vwap in this case but it was holding quite well at that price at that time and there was some premkt resistance around that area that I thought was ok. It ended up working and then I added on the breakdown and after popping back up it came back down and made new lows. I was looking for a decent move for at least $1 before covering. It came back and seemed to have reclaimed some support so I sized down (the support reclaim could have been nothing but when I didn't get an immediate flush lower I decided to play it safe). Once it broke above vwap and held I got out when it wasn't confirming what I thought would happen. I tried it later in the day when I thought it had made new 52s and failed and then stuffed, and had a lower high. Overall, a good pattern but it was just chopping with the market so while I didn't cover at the highs when I was down on it since I was letting it test over/under I just put a bid for breakeven since I didn't like what was going on and that was good because it ended up going higher. Overall, no regrets about taking this. When I first shorted it at vwap I thought it could go higher and that I should ignore vwap but it was holding there for a little so I thought it was good.
PBYI: My first trade on this was a complete deviation on what I do and I definitely paid the price for it. Someone in the office shouted it out so I pulled it up and saw bigger volume on the washout. I had no idea why it was going down or anything like that. So when it seemed to have washed out and been holding I went long and immediately was down a bunch as it flushed more and I stopped out. It went a lot lower so good stop out but horrible process. I didn't know what was going on and just bought because of bigger volume. Well, bigger volume than when I bought came in later on and it washed out a bunch more. So the lesson here is to not catch a falling knife on a play like this. Doing it on a biotech stock like this is different than AAPL or AMZN - although one MUST be absolutely disciplined when playing washouts on those as well. Anyway, the stock came back down and made a new low by a few pennies and had no downward followthrough. I thought that was it but had enough with trying to pick bottoms and obviously these fake bottoms and highs aren't always it. I do wonder if I would have tried the trade had I not taken the prior loss but I don't think so. Anyway, that ended up being the bottom so it came back and then started absorbing huge on $35 bid so I bought in front of that with a stop below it with half the size than my first trade. This ended up working but I was unsure about it since a lot of offers were absorbing at $36 and beyond. I kept increasing my stop to protect profits and to get back some of my stupid loss from before. My stop triggered and I got out and recovered most of my losses but I did get out on a dip where it then ripped. I'm not sure if I would have given it more room had I not been already down on it. Although it went much higher, it was definitely iffy. Overall the lesson here is to know what is going first and second don't pick bottoms like this especially on a biotech name like this. Also, don't think that the big volume you see now won't be bigger on future candles as you have seen many times before. Also, had I used the 3min I wouldn't have gotten in that earlier situation. Sometimes the 1min helps and sometimes it hurts.
Other stocks:
DRYS: Not much to say about this stock other than it is important to always stop out despite most of the time the trade coming back to your entry. The consolidations were nice and had you bought the rips you still made money but most of the time on any other stock buying and chasing like that would make you a loser.
PTCT: I avoided this since I didn't like how it was trading. It definitely stuffed at the open but I didn't trust it because the fact that it gapped up and was still somewhat holding on gave me some pause. Overall, it was a good call. I'm not sure if it was more fear of taking the trade vs. just not being sure and getting a sense that it was stronger than we thought.
NUGT: This one was definitely a miss for me although I had a bid in but it never got hit. I was looking for a clean washout and thought I missed it out of the gate but it went lower. However, once it had a nice set of higher lows I wanted to get in. I did hesitate when I first saw it but when it had a push I put a bid in for a dip buy. It never got there. I guess another entry was buying the breakout of the small consolidation which would have worked. Obviously I hate doing that without having unrealized gains but it would have worked. I guess the only lesson here is to not care so much about the orders when it's just a few cents.
NVDA: I was looking to trade this either way. It flushed then consolidated and had a bear flag look. I thought about shorting it but never did due to fear I think. I wasn't too confident in the setup because I was more long biased after the fact that it had washed out but the price action didn't lie. So that was a mistake there. The only other trade I potentially saw in it was it was consolidating after the flush and I thought we cold get a push up but I never took it because it looked like a bear flag on the hourly so was definitely cautious. It never pushed and instead closed at lows so that was a good use of higher timeframes.
Things to work on:
1. No pressure, no putting dreams, hopes and desires onto each trade.
2. Perhaps use the 3min for the washout long for better idea of volume. Either way just because it has volume at that particular timeframe at that moment, it doesn't mean that is the bottom or top.
3. Use higher timeframes for after morning trades.
4. Don't be so aggressive with limits.
No comments:
Post a Comment