Trading Recap 3/31/15

Well today I gave back all my KRFT gains on GENE. I did that by trying out size for the first time (1k shares). To be honest, if I was more careful it would have worked out. Now I have some set rules that I will definitely follow when using size as I have learned my lesson. Ultimately though, I am glad that I was able to press place order no matter the outcome. I had many opportunities earlier in the day where I could have used size successfully but did not take them until way later in the day where most of the move had happened. I was looking for scalps with my size.

White arrows are entries as discussed below.

GENE: I actually might have called the top on GENE by looking at the level 2. When it went to 5.74, the L2 looked different from the prior times it made nHOD. It didn't "refresh (not sure how else to explain it) like the other times it went nHOD. But for using size that wasn't enough evidence. However there was a lower high that was definitely shortable and it worked if you held. The other place I saw was when it tested 5.50ish for the fourth time and instead of just rebounding off, it sort of hung around there and I said to myself "this looks different from the prior times" and apparently I was right. I then sort of chased and shorted 5.23 because it was about to crack the base which it did but I put my stop at breakeven which triggered by a penny before promptly coming right down like I intended so that was aggravating but at least I was flat. However, I shorted again at 5.09 looking for the 5 wash and it came to 5.05 which was the base and it held this time and instead of putting a breakeven stop like last time which screwed me over I kept it on and let it go against me a bit until it spiked and I ended up covering at 5.20. Funny how something that was supposed to be a scalp turned into a decent loss. I think all losses start that way but at least I didn't add to it.

Things to work on:

1. When using size, always put breakeven stop or slightly above breakeven right away. If it doesn't do what you want right away take it off right away with size.

Trading Recap 3/25/15

Well, today I managed to make back half of my losses from my prior -10% day with one trade. This is a testament to keeping losses small and to not let one day get you out of the game. This trade is also the most I ever made for real in a day and in one trade. Before I get into the trade recap, I just want to touch upon the fact that while I have not pressed the place order button for the past week, if I did, I would be up so much more. Obviously calling something out and trading it are two separate things but nonetheless calling out correct plays helps with my confidence so that I can eventually "press the button" like I did today. Hopefully, today gives me the extra confidence needed to go in and size in. Every day at all times of the day for the most part I have been able to find something worth playing and this has also increased my thinking in that it doesn't matter to miss any one particular trade because there will be another coming up soon enough.

First white arrow is entry, second is exit.

KRFT: Who knew my biggest winner would come from playing 50 shares of KRFT short? I always thought it would be from a smaller priced stock. Funny how things work out. Anyway, I first saw the parabolic around $85 and it was hovering there and I was thinking of going short but decided not to since it's a real deal and everything, with Buffett himself involved. Later on in the day though I checked it again and saw what looked to be the backside of the move with a lower high forming. I also knew that the run-up was all a squeeze of shorts, so it had potential to fade nicely. I saw a small base forming around 86 where the prior low was and decided to short 86 with risk on 86.50s over/under as a guide. Was it a small stop given that this is an almost $90 stock? Yes. However, I really had had enough of missing out on these plays where I would have been right (which as I describe above has been happening more and more). My mouse hovered over the place order button and something inside me just said "fuck it" and I hit the button and got filled instantly. From there on it was a nice $3 slide without much hiccup to $83. I was being as patient as I could be for the potential of $80 but I saw higher lows formed which was uncharacteristic of how it was acting before on its slide down so I put a stop at $83, guaranteeing me $3/share profit which triggered. It ended up going to $83.10 before going right back down and I thought "well, damn" but it came back and just consolidated around there for the rest of the day.

Things to work on:

1. Continue this trend of not being a pussy and press the damn button if you think the setup is good.

Trading Recap 3/18/15

Today, I finally tried using the all in method with a tight stop. Funnily enough, the time I first try it it didn't work (w/ all of last week's trades it would have worked). The thing is that while I was in the trade and before I was eventually stopped out, I just felt like a noob going all in with a tight stop. I am going to revise the method to what I originally envisioned (one normal size entry with a decently sized add with a stop and then one exit for all shares). Otherwise, the commissions will be too much if I add add add and then scale out.

CPRX: I wanted to try a failed follow through momentum play and I thought this would be a good option. It was up two days prior with big range so any failed continuation I thought would be a good short. I shorted big size (relative to my piker acct) at that base due to seeing the prior day's support became resistance. I put a .02 stop above the base due to the big size. If I was playing regular size, I would have stopped at r/g which was valid for the rest of the day. The stock ended up peaking at r/g and then coming back below my original short by a few cents before coming back up. I wanted to reshort but decided against it due to the low volume.

Things to work on:

1. While I wanted to try a failed momo play, part of this I believe came from the fact that I didn't see anything else for the day and wanted to still trade. With the commissions the way they are, I must only focus on the best plays and add in to size at a good spot.

Trading Recap 3/16/15

Last week I didn't trade at all even though I wanted to. I couldn't pull the trigger on using big size like I had alluded to in my previous recap. If I had pulled the trigger, almost every trade would have made me money and I would have banked. Today, I tried using normal size but adding aggressively at certain spots that were non-random. Throughout the whole trade, I thought I was up a lot (I don't look at PnL when trading) but after everything was said and done and after commissions due to all the adds, I barely came out green. I felt I worked for barely anything. Even worse, on one of my trades the idea of paying commissions on scaling out caused me to turn a potential winner into a loser.

Arrows are entries and last arrow is exit for all shares.

I think I will just have to bite the bullet and use big size on my entry with a tight stop and see what happens. It would have worked well last week on all the trades so perhaps my original thesis is right. I'm not going to just keep grinding commissions and barely make anything.

MVIS: I thought I was up a lot more on this since I eventually got a .20 more on a $3 stock but my piker size and commissions due to the two adds after my entry diminished the real. I looked at the history of the stock and saw that it had similar news in the past and it ended up fading anyway, so that gave me the confidence to let it ride for most of the day. I had a buy order to cover all at $3 and it ended up going to 3.10 before putting in higher lows and I ended up covering at 3.2 for all my shares. I started in when it had sightly lower highs and once the line in the sand broke I added in on pops and kept riding them down and added when other support broke.

AMPE: I had an eye on this for the intraday base break to get short for failed follow momo. Once the base cracked and peaked, I started in short and added when it peaked at 7.5. It washed a little but I still held on and then it reclaimed 7.5 and started to hold, which was my stop on the add only. However, after realizing all the commissions I had racked up on MVIS I just decided to cut it off entirely instead of just my add. This was a mistake because my 7.7 over/under on my initial still peaked and the rest of the day the stock washed until one last big spike towards the end of the day. I am not sure if I would have covered before that spike had I still kept my initial entry.

Things to work on:

Trading-wise and rule-wise I did a good job of not being stubborn and covering at the higher lows on MVIS and adding into a winner. Obviously, I wish I hadn't cut off AMPE completely like I would have done if I had a bigger acct/lower commissions.

1. Bite the bullet and just size in first entry.

Trading Recap 3/6/15

Today I just did one stupid trade that I was about cancel just as I was about to get filled but I took it off quickly for a small loss. I have learned a lot from the past week and I believe I will have to change my strategy going forward for now on this small account. I believe that I will have to start small into a position but then using the small profits as a buffer, size in big with a very tight stop and sell/cover into any decent move quickly. Looking at the charts over the past week that I have played, this would have been a winning strategy. I believe that I am playing like I have a $10k+ acct and not using the whole acct on one thing. Since I have a very small account, I will have to go in big on margin in a winner with a tight stop so that even if I get stopped out, I can live to fight another day. As long as one or two of these work, that will provide me the cushions needed going forward. This isn't an attempt to be a one-night wonder, but rather a necessity due to being otherwise nickle and dimed on commission and small losers where I don't give the stock enough room on the entry to go and therefore get stopped out when all along I was right. I believe this can work and I know this isn't a long term thing, but something that I believe has to be done in order to get to where I want. If I blow up, well it will suck but I believe I would have been headed down that road anyway except on a much slower pace due to death by a thousand paper cuts. At least with this, I can size into a winner and if it fails experience a very small loss compared to the size on the account that I have currently.

LL: I missed the higher low out of the gate and after it ramped and sat back I thought I saw an ABCD but really it just me trying to get long on something that wasn't really an ABCD. I cut it off pretty quick when I realized my mistake and like I said above, I was going to take it off but then I got filled just as I was about to hit cancel.

Things to work on:

1. Work on my new method of sizing into a winner and putting an extremely tight stop.

Trading Recap 3/5/15

I just traded one stock again today since I there wasn't much that fit my criteria. I am starting to get annoyed that I cannot trade setups that I think could work but the r/r for my small acct just isn't there. OREX short and GOGO long were two examples today. After watching more of tandem trader and seeing the way Nate and others actually trade in and out giving things room to play out vs. me who has to have a hard and tight stop otherwise the loss would be too big, it makes me realize I may be fighting a losing battle. I think I may just have to resort to just taking very specific setups on higher priced stocks that happen to have a low risk like .20 cents max for 100 shares or .5 cents for 50 shares.These momentum stocks may not be good due to the way they trade and how they can fake you out if you don't let it work for you. With lower priced stocks who may have .2 risk for my 100 shares, it would have to go up/down a much bigger amount % wise vs. a $40 stock going to $41 to make the same $100. I believe from now on I will have to exclusively play these types of stocks and just scalp around for .50-$1 gains per share.

ANTH: I saw this as a potential squeezer especially after CAPN yesterday. It formed a flag at HOD and I went long with a .10 stop. It went up a few cents but couldn't push through but I gave it some time and just set my stop to almost breakeven and eventually I just got stopped out and it didn't do much for the rest of the day.

Things to work on:
1. Incorporate changes for specific setups to trade as highlighted above for now until I can get some per share pricing solution and a bigger account.

Trading Recap 3/4/15

Today I had my worst losses so far of around -10% of my account including commissions. The key takeaway though for me is that I was right on more than half of the plays that I either took or that I wanted to take, but due to my account size I am forced to have a tight stop which doesn't let the trade work for me. I'll go into detail for each scenario but I believe that in the future, for now at least, I should only take the trade if I can really risk the actual amount to where my stop should be and not try to force the trade by putting a tighter stop where I get stopped out more often. Usually, the answer to this would be decreasing size but I am already at the lowest size (100 shares for stocks less than $20) possible. In addition, I need to work on keeping my emotions in check even after some losses as I was ready for the CAPN long trade but didn't do it because I told myself I just didn't want to get stopped out again, which caused me to miss a nice gain and something that would have wiped out all my losses from today.

OREX: This was on my watchlist for reactive short or long. I saw an ABCD pattern form in the pre market and prepared myself to get long. It flushed out of the gate a little but the dips were bought so I bought in after it broke the pre market resistance. The mistake was to not give it the extra .10 it needed, but rather to just put an 8 stop. I originally thought it would be chasing since it came right back from the flush, but it consolidated before heading temporarily higher and breaking the ABCD pattern so I thought I was ok. I turned out to be right on the long. However, after I got stopped out on the long side I saw a lower high form and it had rejected the pre market highs so I went short around 8.15 with risk to the pre market highs but it still held 8 and zoomed off there, stopping me out again. Should I have given the long more room to go? Yes. Would I have cut it off and gone short anyway after the lower high and seeing it reject the premarket highs? Possibly. Either way this was a tricky trader and I know others had difficulty with it today.

What is interesting from this is that the rejection pattern I am seeing seems to work only for shorts when it has ran for a bit and not just in the beginning of the day, assuming there hasn't been a huge parabolic in the first few minutes. If this pattern occurs in the AM, like it did yesterday in LL and OREX today, it seems that a nice run will usually ensue but only after flushing for a bit, which happened both times.

First white arrow is the long and the second is my short. The price line shows the pattern I am talking about where a stock pops up above resistance before sitting back down and being under resistance again. You can see the flush then the nice rally afterwards.

GOGO: I saw a very nice daily chart and thought that it could be a nice breakout.

Intraday, I saw a wedge so when it broke out from it I went long with hopes of a nice breakout but it didn't happen and I got stopped out. I let it go to the full stop where I actually thought the stop should be. I will keep this on watch.

GPRO: I took this long on a ABCD breakout and with my prior losses occurring previously to this trade, I gave it a much tighter stop than usual, which I shouldn't have even after using only 50 shares. Originally, my stop was going to be at .50 over/under but then I increased it to a low that just formed. It hit my stop but only went a few cents more before reversing for the rest of the day.

Things to work on:

1. If you are going to take a trade, it has to be the actual correct stop chart-wise otherwise don't take it because you won't give yourself enough room.
2. Keep your head cool after losses for other GOOD setups. Don't just trade to get back losses, which I didn't, but make sure your losses don't prevent you from entering GOOD setups that you would have taken if you didn't have the losers before.
3. This one is just a note. On bigger stocks like GPRO, you have to keep an eye on the SPY and don't fight the market. Odds are not in your favor.

Trading Recap 3/3/15

I only took one trade today again, which was LL. This could have been a huge gain for me but I sold when it looked weak and never got back in when it decided to grind higher for most of the day. LL was still on my watchlist for a potential washout to get long into with higher lows. The washout didn't happen and I was actually thinking of scalping some short for failed momo but didn't. What happened next was it formed an ABCD pattern and I was thinking of buying the dips before buying above the break due to the SSR being on but I decided to wait. I put in stop buy above the base and it triggered and I then bought a higher low for a decently sized position. My plan was to sell on the first lower high which happened right around my add and considering the size I had on margin and not wanting to take a partial due to commissions, I just took it off. It then flushed right to my initial entry and I thought I made a smart choice but it promptly came right back up, which is a pattern I should have noticed as I mentioned it yesterday where if it flushes below support but then holds again that is usually a good long opportunity. I was too emotional, I think, to try again after previously thinking this could have been a big win for me.

You can see the initial failed momo that I wanted to short for a scalp. Then the subsequent ABCD and the first two arrows are entries where the third is my exit.

Things to work on:
1. Lower emotions as much as possible.
2. Have to get better at reentering trade either long or short and not just being done with it after I exit or stop out. Not only on this trade but on OREX as well for the short. I didn't short the top but there were plenty of opportunities to short pops along the way down, especially after confirmed trend break.

Trading Recap 3/2/14

I just took one trade today in the AM which was EYES short. I was actually up but only got half filled. It tanked almost a dollar from my short but since I only had half the size I wanted I decided to just keep it on instead of covering. There was a lower high which I wanted to add to because I thought that this would be the backside of the move because 15.40s were peaking now which is where the the support was for the entire day Friday. However, I noticed a pattern that I have seen before which gave me pause. It held the prior low as support and started to come off that. From there it just jumped and it went past my entry so I covered for a small loss. It would have been a decent gain even with the half size if I had covered, but no matter. To be honest I was pissed but then I realized that I was seeing the patterns in real time which was a good thing. In fact, it was a pattern that told me to go long which I wish I had but I was stuck in the short frame of mind.

You can see from the above image where I shorted (the white arrow) and what the pattern is, is when a stock washes out but then reclaims the support in a somewhat quick fashion. Originally, I thought when it popped again it would just be a lower high but it dropped for a bit and held, which showed me that there was something more going on. In addition, it is crazy how it washes to trigger the ssr and then immediately squeezes all the shorts.

You can even see the inverse of this pattern for the short in the same picture above during premarket hours. It spiked up but then sat right back down and then proceeded to flush a bit. 

Things to work on:

1. Switching mindset quicker from short to long and vice versa