Pages

Thursday, September 29, 2016

Trading Recap 9/29/16

Today was a profitable day and while it could have been a lot more now I am starting to still be green even though I fuckup on a trade with size. The 3min candles are definitely helping and my ratio of ideas that end up actually working are much higher. I have less ideas but they are more accurate - perfect.

SAEX: This was pretty much a carbon copy of what happened on OPTT yesterday. I had it on watch because it was gapping up and holding up compared to the other junkers. I had a very good first entry on the stuff near the open and it immediately washed out. I wanted to be patient though which while in the end worked out I should have covered and reshorted because it was quite a big washout and it happened quickly. What ended up happening was it retested vwap and it failed so I added in there with the add risking vwap over/under. Unfortunately it went quite a bit higher and retested the highs where I covered everything due to having a case of the "what ifs" and it being right at the HOD but it never broke to nHOD. I then saw it might have stuffed due to the huge volume again so when it went under vwap I reshorted and then covered near the lows to make back my loss on it from before. Pretty much the exact same thing as OPTT. Oh and the big fake bids were here too. Lesson: When a stock washes out like that just take the money because it will most likely rebound for another entry. When a stock goes higher like this, similar to OPTT, either add for low additional risk if it doesn't work or just sit tight. It's not much different to get out 10 cents higher if it makes new highs. No what ifs here and while you gave it enough room on the add you shouldn't have stopped out of the initial.


ARIA: I have been keeping this on watch. Today it looked like it had failed follow through momo so I shorted when it looked weak and then added when it went under vwap and consolidated. I was pretty patient with it and the market helped but it didn't go as far down as I thought but there can be more downside for sure. I remember it made a new low by a penny and then reversed back up quickly. I thought that was it but gave it the room because I knew thesis > price action and it did end up working in that instance. While I didn't get out on dips and covered when it popped up, it's ok because I was waiting for it to really go lower, possibly like EXEL, but when it wasn't doing that I just put stops above prior highs to get me out. I wish I had more size of course given the feeling I had but only on proper entries because you never know what's going to happen. I probably should have waited for more of a clear sign to cover like at 2 after it reclaimed the support from there. Lesson: Thesis > minute price action, look for better areas to cover (partially hindsight of course)


GNCA: I only shorted this on the second stuff. I saw the first stuff but didn't think anything of it although I should. It washed out then a new price target came out it stuffed pretty hard into r/g so I shorted then. I got a nice washout but was looking for more and put a breakeven stop that was triggered. It hovered around for a bit - went a little higher then came back down. Then it tanked to 5 as I was looking for. So I had the right idea but my timeframe for how long it would take was off. I will note this going forward. Part of it was I wasn't so confident in it and didn't want to lose money in it but that's a mistake. Hard to say really. Lesson: Not sure if anything can be said. It did work out but it just took a while and could have easily not have worked. It never triggered my stop but these are the grey area trades.


Things to work on:
1. No what if!!!
2. Give things enough room.
3. Be prepared for the worst, hope for the best.
4. When you get a big move in your direction quickly, just take it and look for another shot when it rebounds/dips again if need be.
5. Don't stop out of initial when the initial's stop hasn't been triggered. Possibly add at the spots you would cover.
6. Thesis > minute price action. On ARIA the stock made a new low but then came back quickly. This time it went lower afterwards which was different than the BBRY trade. You were a lot more confident in this trade than that one.
7. Stay in the present!!

Wednesday, September 28, 2016

Trade Recap 9/28/16

Today had a lot of opportunity that I did not take advantage of unfortunately. There were some good parts and bad parts to the day. I did finish green but not by much. I did size into some things I had conviction with but handled it poorly. Overall it's slowly coming together..slowly. The 3min charts are definitely working and helping me avoid a lot of noise. My overall idea to ideas that work out ratio is higher. I just need to execute.

NVAX: I was looking for a push ideally to short again but it just dropped out of the gate. I didn't chase and waited for pops to vwap. I thought it could go higher so I waited but when it popped above vwap and then came back down I thought that was it. So I shorted then and then added on the drop to full size. It broke yesterday's low and I was wondering if that would be it. I let it test around in case it wanted to go lower but it seemed to have held a higher low so I got out half. Later on I shorted but that ended up being a trap so I covered the rest for flat. Thought I would make more on this but no big deal. Nothing to say on this one - it was decent execution by waiting for the pop and drop under vwap and then adding in.


OPTT: This stock taught me a lot of lessons today. First I shorted it into vwap after it came off. It went slightly above vwap but I held firm and knew I had to give it room. No more what ifs. I was looking for more on the trade so I put a breakeven stop and stopped out when it came back. At that point maybe it had more juice left. It had some decent volume/stuff later on on the next attempt but I didn't short it there. It broke the uptrend and I thought about shorting it there but I thought it would need to go higher. It did and what I saw next was a huge offer at 8.30 that was responsible for all the volume there. It got taken out, someone sold their shares and I figured that was it. It went slightly higher but I said this is it. So I shorted up there and when it came under vwap I added because I thought that was it. I then saw a big bid that ended up being fake so I was even more confident at that point so I added in more with risk to vwap. So far so good and I was sized in pretty nicely for what I thought would be a nice flush. The stock had one more bounce in it though and I sort of panic covered/what if'd it although it had broken vwap at that point so I guess I should have covered. I covered the 100 I added down below for a decent loss at what happened to be the top of the move - funny how that works. I still kept the initial 50 with risk to new highs as per my plan. So that was good at least. I never added back in but after it broke 8 it was absorbing a lot in the 70 area but I said fuck it and stood firm with my bid at 55. It ended up going there and a bit lower but overall I ended up profitable by a bit in the name. When I was adding I thought if it would retest and I could get a better price but I was pretty confident and wanted to get in on any pop. It's hard to say. Maybe I should have just gave it the full stop since I was pretty confident. The big bid disappearing but it then ramping threw me off since when that happens the stock is usually done. When it did rebound I saw another huge offer that was real and got eaten. I told myself ok this is going to get eaten and someone is getting out and it might go a little higher but it could pullback afterwards. That is exactly what happened but I panic covered unfortunately. Overall some good lessons here.


BBRY: I could say it was a stupid trade that I shouldn't have done but that's not true. My first entry worked well when I saw a good pattern for shorting. But when it made new lows and immediately came back alarm bells should have rang and I should have just covered. Instead I just said fuck it and added and then got stuck and ended up taking a small loss on it. Definitely could have been avoided. Obviously when something like that happens with the lows it's not a definite but something to watch for sure.


Things to work on:
1. Even when there are fake big bids it doesn't mean the stock has to tank right after that. It's ok since your only frame of reference is ATEC when it flushed right after the big bid.
2. When having conviction and sized in, you might just have to take the loss if you are wrong.
3. No what ifs.
4. Keep the partial size when that stop hasn't been taken out but the adds have been.
5. When a stock makes a new low and then comes right back with volume just take it off unless very confident.

Tuesday, September 27, 2016

Trading Recap 9/27/16

Today was a very small losing day. There were some positives to the day and some negatives - some improvements and some things I still need to work on. using 3min charts are definitely helping.

ARRY: I was long biased in the morning although to be honest I wasn't entirely sure. In premarket it did stuff and have some lower highs but I figured shorts were overall still underwater and even though some longs would need to be funneled out, once that happened it could continue higher. I thought it had flushed out and came back to reclaim a level of support. I entered there but was so stupid and afraid of some mystical flush that would happen that I sold it for a small loss quickly. It did end up going higher from there. It broke out from that base which ended up being a failed breakout but I longed it on the dip afterwards but it had no followthrough so got rid of it after it dropped vwap. That was the last thing I did with it. Lesson: No what if!!


SAEX: This should have been a huge win but instead it was a flat ticker for me. I saw it ripping towards resistance from the other day when I shorted it. I shorted it at 9.10 due to the big volume but saw it was holding and got out when it made a new high. I then saw it do some level 2 toppish action so got in at 9.27 (3 cents from the high) and thought I was good. But it consolidated for a bit and I acted emotionally. I originally had a breakeven stop but I didn't want the little profit that was there to go away so I got out on what turned out to be a stuff. After that it was it and went lower than my original target for it. I used the 1min but the 3min would have been better. Lesson: Give things enough room and don't act emotional. Don't think about the money.


NVAX: This was finally the day for a part of the washout. I saw it in the morning and it looked like it was just doing nothing again but it did end up looking weak. It had that stuff which was the sign but I didn't think anything of it because a stuff like that isn't the type I am used to, so that is a lesson there. I thought it would have to go higher though to get out all shorts so that is why I was hesitant. But when it went red I knew it was time. I didn't want to chase it down so when it went red I waited for the r/g retest and got in there. I wish I had more size of course but I covered on that huge volume candle near the low. I tried reshorting in case it wanted to go lower since it looked weak but it didn't so I covered that for a small loss. I then reshorted later in the day after it peaked a level and put in some lower highs. It came back to the lows but then rebounded so I got out for flat. Lesson: Those big red candles with volume are stuffs too. When you are anticipating a trade like this for the past few days, if it gives you a good reason to get in like that stuff then do it.


KITE: I didn't touch it at the open or for most of the day since I didn't see a trade in it. I was watching it but never got in it. It just fucked around for most of the day. However, later in the day I noticed it was under vwap and had tried to get over vwap before but failed and was now under. It looked like a good short opportunity especially with JUNO going higher but this not doing anything especially with the market bounce too. I got in with risk to vwap in the .70s and it never got to vwap but there were some what if moments that came into my head but I got rid of them. It did test $60 a few times and I was close to covering but I let it test $60 o/u. It kept going above it then coming back down so I thought about adding which would have been great with low additional risk but I never did. (One step at a time). Afterwards it broke the .58 level after all that stuffing at the $60 level so I thought this was it so I added when it looked like it could breakdown more. This was a mistake. Obviously it could have worked in hindsight but I shouldn't have been to quick to add there. I guess it's hindsight but I should only be shorting pops. It came back up and I covered the add when it broke the .80 level but still stayed with the initial which was good. It got up to the $60 level but I let it test again and then it dipped back down and I got out which helped minimize the loss a lot to just a tiny one. Lessons: Good job with no what ifs affecting you and letting things have proper room. Just add when something at $60 happens on level 2 and don't add when it looks good for the breakdown.


Things to remember:
1. Red candle stuffs like that are stuffs too that should be looked for.
2. Give things enough room.
3. No what ifs.
4. Add when down in certain cases like this with the $60 rejection.
5. Don't think about the money - no emotions.

Monday, September 26, 2016

Trading Recap 9/26/16

Today was a losing day unfortunately even though I had the right idea on 2/3 stocks I traded yet I was red on all of them. Going forward I will be using 3min charts exclusively. I have been doing some "backtesting" and I definitely see a noticable difference with the way I see things on the 1min vs. 3min charts. I see way too much with the 1min that makes me want to go in vs. the 3s that show me less but only the important things. I will be talking about in each of the stock reviews today.

ARRY: I shorted in the morning and considering where it is now the small loss I took is nothing compared to what could have happened had I stayed stubborn. I shorted after it looked like it had a big volume push and came off. It held vwap but that was ok I was in partial size. I added when it made a new high but had no immediate followthrough. But when it went higher after that I stopped out and that was it. This was all using the 1min chart. Had I used the 3min chart I would have seen just a nice consolidation. I'm not saying I would have gone long but I would have avoided the short as there wasn't any setup there. Later on I tried shorting the 6 test but stopped out for flat after I didn't like what it was doing. There were a lot of flags to go long on throughout the day. One thing to note is that when there is only one main stock on watch like this it can get crowded easily so that is something else to note. Lesson: When there is only one stock on watch for the most part it can get crowded especially after all the easy shorts lately. Remember these things go in cycles so after a lot of easy shorts there will be one runner. Also use 3min charts for less noise.


CLVS: I thought this had the chance to go lower after everyone forgot about it and the longs might just continue to sell. My target was $36. I wanted to see some failed follow through. After it flushed and made new lows I waited for the retest of what looked like support at around the .80s with risk to r/g. This looked good using the 1min but had I used the 3min I would have seen that nothing was there. There was vwap but I wouldn't have traded that setup. It ended up going higher and making a new high and then coming off. This was the top for the day. I'm not sure I would have shorted there but at least I wouldn't have shorted and lost on the first trade. But I should have thought that when it was at the 37.50s it could at least go back down to $37 like Friday so it was a good attempt then. Anyway, it came under vwap again and I shorted again figuring it got everyone out but I covered on the r/g push. Later on I tried one last time as it broke the uptrend and looked like a bearish flag. This would have been right but I covered for flat after being wrong the past 2 times and I thought I saw some level 2 things that didn't add up but I was wrong on that. Overall I had the right idea but my execution was shit. Lesson: I would say to give it more room but using 3min charts I wouldn't have seen what I did to make me short it in the first place.


GWPH: I avoided this in the morning since I didn't have a bias on it. I did see the parabolic in the morning for a short scalp that would have worked but meh. It could have easily had gone higher. The only trade I saw later in the day was when it was consolidating higher above vwap late in the day when SPY and LABU were going lower. I figured it could have an EOD run. I got long small on a dip and almost immediately sold it but told myself to not worry about it. It went down very small for this type of range and I was in small size. Soon it went up and was holding. I saw on the level 2 that the bids would drop and then come right back. So it was interesting and it definitely helped support the long idea. I didn't get long on any of those dips to add more unfortunately. After it broke out I added on the retest and it went towards $126. I was up a decent amount here and should have taken it off since it was premature at this point (3pm). It then came off a bit quickly near my average but I did hold on. I set a breakeven stop and it got triggered so I was out for flat at that point. It looked like a failed breakout but I had a feeling it could still go higher. I should have given it to the flush lows from just before. It would have been a minor loss that was well worth it for the reward of it breaking out. I retried again just above $125 and on the first dip lower I got out and took a loss because I got a case of the what ifs. It fucked around for a bit but broke out past $126 right before the bell. A few lessons: The dip buy was good and even the add was ok after it broke out. You should have realized it was a premature breakout and either taken it off and then readded on dips or if you wanted to be really patient then at least give it the proper room and stop. Don't just go for breakeven stops when it's overall still valid and give it enough room (pertains to second trade).


Things to work on:
1. Use the 3min chart.
2. Give things enough room.
3. No what if scenario.
4. Don't trade when confused.
5. Don't just go for breakeven on the trade when your trade is still valid.
6. Remember the stocks that work for shorting and those that run are cyclical. 

Sunday, September 25, 2016

Trading Recap 9/23/16

Friday was decently profitable day that could have been a lot more but that seems to be everyday I guess. I paid for some of the learning experiences earlier this week. It is still a work in progress but the things I know I should do but don't are still getting drilled into me and I am definitely going to do the biggest thing which I think is affecting my trading: give things bigger room especially when I am in partial size and don't freak out with "what if" scenarios.

SAEX: This was the main gainer for me. There is a lot to learn from this trade. Going into it I was definitely bearish because I remembered VLTC and how all the other bounces ended up on the second day. At first I thought that it would have to go higher first but in premarket it was already making lower highs so I was more bearish and figured it wouldn't have to run as much but I was still open to anything. Out of the gate it pushed up and then slammed down. I figured that would be it so when it got to vwap I shorted thinking it would top out over there. I gave it a little bit to see if it would go higher but it started coming off so I shorted near vwap partial size. It went higher though right after I got in but it was ok. I didn't add on the spike higher but my risk was to vwap over/under and I knew I had to let it do its thing. Later on I added when it looked to peak 9.90s. I got what I thought was a good entry but it spiked up again through vwap a bit. It was definitely pushing my limits but I thought this could be just another time it goes through vwap and then comes right back down. That is what happened and when it got near my add price I sized down in case it decided it wanted to go higher again before coming back down. That didn't happen though and it made new lows . I sat through bullshit successfully but didn't take advantage of the fact and got out half size in case. I reshorted again when it went lower and my plan was to cover at the support from Thursday but it didn't seem to want to go there so I increased my limit a few cents and covered one cent off the lows at that time which was good. Later on it consolidated and eventually went lower. I could have shorted it again I guess but no big deal. Lessons: Overall I stayed in and sat through the spike because I was confident in the setup and everything. I shorted what I thought were pops and good entries. Obviously in hindsight they weren't but they could have easily had been entries. It was kind of difficult to risk off of any definite level and it definitely wicked a lot higher than I thought. Biggest thing I guess is to give it room to work. Using the 2-3min chart may have helped but it's hard to say unless seeing it in real time.


CLVS: This stock has continually been a loser for me even though I have been right almost 100% of the time. That usually means that I am not giving things enough room. Going into the day I was looking for a potential blowoff top so even though in the morning I saw it spike up a dollar I thought it could go higher so I waited and didn't want to step in front of it. After a bit it spiked through vwap then came off. I was looking for it to stay under vwap as that would be a sign that it could continue to go lower. My risk was to vwap over/under. I was debating giving it to the prior spike high but figured if it popped through vwap again then it could go higher. At this point I wasn't sure if a top had been put in but I was trying since it was under vwap. It immediately got through vwap again so I covered for a loss there. It came right back though on the next candle and thought I screwed up by not giving it to the spike high but then it did go back in the 40s. I didn't think it was a double top or anything and thought it could go higher potentially. After Adam F came out with his article and it flushed lower I thought about shorting in the first oval area below under vwap again but I didn't want the same thing to happen to me so I figured I would short pops lower if it decided to go lower. Well, it did go lower. I was looking for pops back to vwap or something or at least 39s but it never got there and so when it looked like it was peaking r/g I shorted with risk to the prior highs. It worked and I wanted to add after it broke $38 and peaked so I did that and waited. After a bit it looked like it was reclaiming $38 and at this point I thought the short was crowded after the article so I downsized and then got out on higher lows. I thought it could go back to r/g and go to vwap again. Later on I drew an uptrend line and said it looked like a bear flag. I figured if it broke it then it would be a good short as it would definitely be a confirmation it would go lower after consolidating under r/g for a while. It got below the line but I wanted to wait for a pop to short. However, at this point all the shorts like me were out and it could just go lower. This stock likes to fuck shorts over first so that is why I waited for a pop but it never came and I should have just shorted right away on the breakdown. So I completely missed the trade even though I had the right idea. Later on I tried it a couple of times but lost very small on it due to getting scared out and the what if scenario. Lesson: It's hard in practice to "react vs. predict". Two different stocks: CLVS and SAEX and two different outcomes. I predicted SAEX would peak at certain levels and while they weren't the best entries it worked out in the end. I predicted on CLVS that it would peak at certain levels and in the long run it worked out but a lot happened in-between. I was down half my downside on SAEX unrealized but was confident. On CLVS I would have been through half my downside had I given it to highs and stuck with my original entry. It could have realistically gone higher though had the article not come out then. Also, I did try to react after it went above vwap then came back down and thought that was a good entry. Not really sure what to think honestly - had I waited for a react scenario on CLVS I guess I would have waited for it to breakdown and short pops like my original plan or the bear flag. The biggest thing too is thesis > minute price action. So even though it looked like it reclaimed it was still holding red but it could have easily gone higher. Not really sure other than having the conviction to stay in the trade when it hasn't been invalidated.


NVAX: I tried shorting this again due to the same reasons mentioned before. It made new highs but I got the feeling that was it so I shorted 2 cents off the high and risked very small. It worked out but I only wanted to add under vwap. It broke vwap then I added when it popped there and was patient. It never broke that 2.24 level so I got out. It was a good trade overall.


ACIU: I went long after it broke the downtrend lines and it had higher lows. I was using the 3minute chart though and when I switched to 1min I didn't see how thin it was. When it started going lower I kind of paniced out in case the floor just dropped. Kind of a what if scenario of course. It didn't do anything though.


Things to work on:
1. Give things enough room.
2. React vs predict.
3. Thesis > minute price action.

Thursday, September 22, 2016

Trading Recap 9/22/16

Another losing day. There was one main loser and a bunch of other smaller ones too. Some things that can be worked on of course.

AVXL: Never thought I would lose money shorting AVXL but here we are and it was my biggest loser today. I figured it would be a layup like all the others but unfortunately that wasn't true. It is an ok loss as I would take the same trades 10/10 times and 9/10 they work. Anyway at the open I shorted small size when it looked like it was going to break 3. If it went towards premarket highs and stuffed I would add there no problem. It broke 3 and peaked so I added in. After a stupid cover and then a reshort it reclaimed and spiked up and I took the loss. It then stuffed with big volume after going to new highs so I thought this was it so I shorted again but it held up to my surprise and I had to cut it. So that was the main loss. I wish I had played BSPM or GALT instead but I figured this would be the easiest. Could I have waited for the stuff in the first place even though in the end it didn't work? Yeah I guess but it may not have done that. Like I said though I was prepared to add there if need be. I'm not sure if there's a lesson here really. It just didn't work and the trading was ok I guess.


SRPT: I figured this could go higher but I wasn't entirely sure about it. The offering was received well so I thought it could it go like CLCD did. At the open I went long on the nhod $58 breakout and it worked for a bit but I was looking for it to go to high $58s at least and wanted to be patient. It came back pretty quickly and I just got in case. I don't like buying breakouts like that although in this case it was probably ok. I was looking for more followthrough quickly though to the high 58s and when it came back so quick like that I just got out. It did hold vwap of course and in hindsight yea I should have stayed in but so be it. I thought about shorting it in the high 58s after it made a new high and didn't do anything but didn't do it. That would have worked but meh I was more bullish. After the drop I kept trying to see if there was a good place to risk off of but couldn't find one. Sure if you bought anywhere it worked but nothing that fit my criteria although once it got above vwap again I should have just bought but whatever. Later on I tried shorting the 60 stuff but put a breakeven stop which got filled. It did go a little lower but ultimately continued higher. I thought about going long again after that drop from $61.6 to vwap. My friend did and unfortunately he got out at the bottom due to panic when he had the right idea all along. Lesson: Give things enough room.


NVAX:  After it got under vwap again I shorted thinking people bought because the director bought and it doesn't mean anything and the company is fucked. Didn't work out but took a small loss. Waited for it to hold vwap and then got out at above vwap.

CXW: I was too early for the short. I shorted because I remember this had news last week and it faded quite a bit after it spiked up. It was a good idea but my timing was off. Looking back at it now it went right to the same top as last time it had news. That would have been good to know. I didn't bother to look at that. Lesson: In this scenario look at when the former news stopped running.


CLVS: I was initially short biased as it started off under vwap but I wasn't totally sure about. I thought that maybe the longs who chased got out yesterday and that there were only shorts left. So I wasn't too confident in shorting. Had it broken through the base and then peaked then I would have most likely tried it. After it got above vwap I didn't bother shorting it. Instead when it got to vwap I tried the vwap dip and rip pattern. Unfortunately, I didn't have much confidence in it since I got out for a tiny loss when it was still valid and it worked great. Lesson: Give things enough room.


Things to work on:
1. Don't trade when confused.
2. GIVE THINGS ENOUGH ROOM DAMNIT! Remember what you said yesterday - partial size is whatever. Your loss on AXVL was a full $1 loss on your partial size and you survived.
3. In cases like CXW, see where it spiked to last time.

Wednesday, September 21, 2016

Trading Recap 9/21/16

I was up today and while today could have been a lot more, I did learn a lot. I'm not going to go over every single trade because I did trade a lot after the fed for some scalps. The scalps went well..until they didn't and essentially I was flat on the scalps after all was said and done. Some things could have helped avoid the losses there which I will discuss. Overall it was a good learning day.

CLVS: I had a bigger picture idea in this in that there was a ton of euphoria and it seemed to play out chart-wise exactly like AERI. So instead of waiting for a bigger picture idea and having patience I decided to scalp it. I was overall profitable on it but it could have been a lot more had I been patient and thought the big picture thesis I had. I saw it had failed follow through so shorted the vwap pop. It was a good entry and came towards the low quick enough. So I covered there for a 60cent scalp. Later on it headed straight towards vwap. I shorted at vwap and got a good entry but it went above vwap and I panicked out near the top. Now, could it have just touched vwap and that was it? Yeah it's possible but then instead of predicting you could have reacted and shorted lower highs after that. When it popped through vwap and got everyone out and then came right back down that was a good entry. Hindsight of course but those usually work. Adding on pops along the way would have been great. But for my entry, if I shorted at vwap I have to give it some room and I am in partial size so it should be ok. Instead of taking the loss I could have given it more room, I am in very partial size and it's ok if it doesn't work. Sure I take a loss but it's a small one in the grand scheme of things and it's ok. So those are some revelations I had today. I know I have talked about it before but today it might have hit home for me. I'm in partial size and even a dollar move against me on my partial size is half my downside. Anyway, had I had patience I could have added on the 36 peak and then maybe add in when it went red and peaked for the flush. Some things to consider. And also remember - add in where you would get in had you not already been in it. Later in the day I tried the r/g fail but covered for flat since it was meh. Lesson: Give things the proper room with the big picture ideas and when you are in 1/4 size. Also, again don't predict but react. Be patient if you have a big picture idea.


EBIO: I knew this would be a great short but unfortunately I didn't follow my rule I set out last night about being patient on these small cap junkers. While GBSN is a rare case of it going red due to it being sold into, that doesn't mean these can fade and EBIO also had some decent dilution going on as well. I paid too much attention to the minutia in the chart instead of just staying calm and letting it trend lower for the rest of the day. At the open I missed/was too much of pussy to short the opening candles. I'm not sure why I was a pussy there but anyway it had a big vwap stuff and I shorted after that and then after some level 2 fuckery I added in the full 200 shares. The rest is just me covering half and letting the rest ride but I should have just let the full 200 ride because these can really tank. These usually have at least two downward moves at the least. Lesson: Don't be a pussy - give these some room on these secondary stuffs and be patient once trend is on your side.


AERI: This fucking stock is probably responsible for most of my losses between day 1, yesterday, and today. To my own fault though, all cases were my fault of course. Today I was looking for it to be under vwap to short. It got under vwap and flushed and I got FOMO thinking it wouldn't just pop again so I shorted at a bad entry and it came right back up and I got scared and covered near the top of that bounce. First lesson here is to not get FOMO and wait for a better entry especially on a stock like this that you know fucks you first. I should have waited for a real vwap fail. I also didn't give it enough room since I covered at the top so that is another thing as well going back to CLVS although the entry here was bad. Later on it peaked vwap a few more times and looked better so I shorted then and got a nice wash but I had a bigger picture idea. I added on the pop/lower high and was patient with it for a while. Eventually it just didn't work and it hit my stop above the most recent prior high. I was up a decent chunk at the lows but it's ok because I had a bigger picture idea in mind and it just didn't work. But my entries on this trade were solid and so I still came out with a profit. Lesson: NO FOMO and give things enough room.


GALT: There are some good lessons here. First is that what you think is a stuff with big volume may not actually be one but one is coming up higher. Volume is relative and what may seem like big volume now may not be big compared to the true stuff later on. Anyway, I shorted after what I thought was the top and a stuff and then added prematurely when it came back and had what I thought was a lower high on big volume. I stopped out when it didn't work. I then waited to see what would happen. It then had a true stuff in the 70s and I shorted in the 60s. I remember I covered because the 57s bid was soaking so it came back up, but had a lower high and then went splat. So the lessons here are: wait for the big stuff that you can't mistake it for. If there isn't one then don't bother unless you see a good pattern. And even with the true stuff, it can have a lower high, it may not just drop right away.


SRPT/ CLCD/ LABU - I don't have all the executions for these and these were just fast scalps but from what I can remember these are the lessons to take away: Always look at support/resistances when scalping. This should be obvious but when I sometimes can't fit the entire day's chart on my screen by default, I have to make sure I allocate the right screen space to it. Only scalp when you have a good edge. This should also be obvious. Also, when you are most likely correct on something but it goes slightly against you - don't panic out. Give things enough room in the right circumstance. Also, again what you think is a stuff may not be a stuff and don't think automatically if you see bigger volume on something that it's the top. Again, overall thesis > minute price action.

Things to remember:
1. Give things the proper room on big picture ideas.
2. Give things more room when in partial size in general.
3. Be patient on big picture ideas and don't just scalp.
4.Wait for a true stuff on these runners and don't try to predict. Also, if it truly stuffs it can have a lower high - it doesn't have to just fade right away.
5. Make sure to look at support/resistance when scalping. Look at entire day's chart.
6. When you are most likely correct on something but it goes slightly against you don't panic. Goes back to #2.
7. What you think is a stuff may not be a stuff. Make sure to compare to the volume for the whole day and if the stuff makes sense. Also, overall thesis > minute price action.
8. Things from prior blog post.

Tuesday, September 20, 2016

Trading Recap 9/20/16

Today was a frustrating day. Definitely some avoidable losses and some unavoidable. Some huge misses of course as well. Didn't hit my downside so it wasn't too bad of a day.

AERI: I guess I tried to keep fighting this. I did get good entries each time and stopped out each time for a small loss but the losses just compounded as I kept trying. I really should have waited for a vwap peak to signify it could go down. Had I done that I wouldn't have touched it. Perhaps the first entry or two on the stufs were ok but after that I should have figured if it hasn't gone down by now then today's not the day and stop trying. Lesson: Wait for vwap or listen to the chart. You should have avoided it after it was holding it up but you kept wanting to nail it and be there for the move lower even though it wasn't probable to happen given it was up so much today. You tried to predict instead of react and thus you failed. At least you didn't short it right at the open when it looked to have peaked vwap then. You waited but you should have just kept waiting and never played it once over vwap.


CANF: I was short biased from the open. I wanted it to go higher and stuff before coming back down based on the daily chart candles from when it usually gaps. However this time it was pretty weak. I shorted after it had a nice volume candle after not shorting at the open. I got a bad fill but added when it popped again around the same price. It flushed and I added on the retest but it seemed to be holding and not just going down so I thought maybe that was it so I started getting out and was flat on the name by the end of it. Ideally, I should have just shorted at the open and risk to 3 then either add there or add lower on that volume spike. I should have been more patient with it and let it come back down instead of freak out that it popped a little. I could have gotten a fill in the high 50s instead on the cover. Lesson: On these you can short at the open and risk to premarket highs if need be or lower on pops. Also, once it flushes and confirms, don't just panic out the moment it bounces a little. Give these some time - you know that.


ASNA: I had this on short watch due to earnings and everything lined up as far as guidance lowered etc. I waited for the setup which was good. My first and second entries were good. I shorted when it got back under vwap and peaked. I then added when support broke. My third add was bad as it was near support/lows. It ended up coming back up and I covered when it held a higher low on that bad add and kept the first two. I then got rid of the rest as it looked like it reclaimed prior levels. It still peaked vwap though so perhaps it was bad. Either way it consolidated for most of the day. Where I highlighted the oval was a very good short opportunity as that is a pattern that works very often with low risk and good reward. I didn't see it though. Lesson: Don't add too fast like that especially into support. Hindsight says to give the stock more room to work. I guess I could have done that. Although I probably would have stopped out on that higher high later on before it came back down.


SRPT: I didn't have any thesis and wasn't sure about it for most of the morning so I avoided it as there were better plays out there. However once it tried to break out and then came back and held the prior resistance I figured that was it so I shorted. I didn't have much confidence and while it worked for a scalp it came back and i had put my stop to breakeven. It got triggered and then it fell even more but then came right back. I wouldn't have covered on the flush and would have been patient so it didn't matter in the long run but on something like this you have to give it room. Anyway later on it went below vwap. I was debating if I should short it here since a lot of these have just gone back to reclaim vwap and go higher anyway. I put in an order to short since I figured it was a failed breakout from before and longs were stuck. However, I thought I could get a better price/didn't feel right about it and as I was about to cancel the order I got filled so I stuck with it. It then of course reclaimed vwap and I got out. I should have went long instead as these work a good majority of the time. Lesson: For the first trade I guess it was ok given the thesis etc but given I didn't want to give it that much room I shouldn't have bothered anyway. While I should have waited for under vwap, obviously that would have been a good long in this circumstance. The other lesson is to go long these vwap dip and rips.


ARIA: I saw the stuff and it was an overextended chart so I shorted then added when it broke under some support. The plan was to add if it peaked vwap. That never happened and instead I got out for flat after some fishy level 2 action and it holding vwap. No lesson here overall decent trade just didn't work.


Things to work on:
1. No what if scenarios - you were better with this today but still needs work. Remain in the present!
2. Be reactive and not predictive!!
3. Don't think about the money! Slowly you are getting there.
4. Don't add so quick especially into support/resistance.
5. Go long on the vwap dip and rips.
6. On the low floaters, if it doesn't pop at the open just short at the open and give it to premarket highs.
7. Be patient on the low floaters even if they fuck around for a bit.

Monday, September 19, 2016

Trading Recap 9/19/16

Today was a meh trading day. I did lose a little money but nothing major and nothing near my downside. Some bad luck and some poor trading led to the results but nothing major.

GBSN: I was looking for continued downside on this due to people getting their new reverse split adjusted shares. It had some volume at the open and it failed and went red so I tried getting filled but got a shit fill as I had to keep lowering my offer but I just wanted to get in. It popped back to r/g and stuffed so I added in there and it did drop for a bit. I was hoping for more downside and was trying to be patient but it got to a point where it was just prints showing on the chart and not candles so I covered there for small win. It ended up going back to the lows but never made new lows and just fucked around the rest of the day.


CRBP: This was definitely a tricky stock. It had some failed follow through and went red so I shorted on pops. The first entry was good and I wanted to add as it looked good for a fade so I added on what I thought was a good pop but I should have waited since it was iffy. I guess it could have/should have worked but meh. It was consolidating around vwap and I thought maybe it had reclaimed support but wanted to be patient with it because it did look good and did have weakness that other days didn't have. Unfortunately a newsletter got involved and everybody covered and wrecked the play. So that was my main loss which was ok since it was overall good trading and a good setup. The only thing bad was the add which was meh. I tried it again later on when it went under vwap thinking that was it but I shorted near the bottom and it came right back so I got out. I thought it was a stuff at first but it was holding and acting unlike a stuff so I got out which was a  good choice. I never traded it afterwards due to the low volume and how the stock would move. Positives: Had decent first entry. Negatives: Chased a little on the second attempt under vwap but meh. Neutral: Should have possibly waited on the add.


TECD: I saw it had acquired some part of a company and usually shorting the acquirer works well. I wanted it to breakout and fail and then repeak at the prior resistance for a good entry. It did do that so I shorted but didn't give it enough room even though I said I have to give it to fake breakout highs. This was similar to AERI where I thought it should have worked right away but it took a little extra that I wasn't prepared for. I think it comes to being actually confident in the trade. With CRBP I thought it had reclaimed but wanted to give it some room because the chart setup was good. Here I just took it off because while I thought it was ok I didn't want to risk that much for this setup. It ended up going below vwap and then reclaiming vwap. I thought it might be a good long since those work well and it did work but I wasn't confident in it since I thought it would be a good short. Usually if the acquirer is to fade it just does so from the gate instead of going up so that was another thing I wasn't sure of which made me question my short. Positives: Waited for pop and retest to get in. Negative: Not enough room given/no confidence in trade - if you aren't going to give it the proper room then don't bother.


CLCD: I had this on the backburner. I saw it had moved up a bit and after it had consolidated at the highs and had a big red candle I thought about shorting as seen with the first oval but never did, which would have been nice. Later in the day I saw the vwap reclaim for a long but didn't bother and then saw a nice pattern to short. Given the extended daily I thought it would be ok - this is the second oval. But I thought it would have to do more bullshit first to get people out. That is exactly what happened and I saw it stuffed and came back off. I shorted there with risk to where it stuffed. It looked good but it was low volume and I didn't want to be stuck in a random spike although I had small size. I chose to get out for flat right before it started going down. It sucks and I have thought about this before. Sometimes getting out before your stop works and sometimes it doesn't It has to do with confidence in the setup as I alluded to before and if you are really going to give it the full out and if you feel it is worth giving to the full out. If not then you shouldn't take the trade in the first place. Positives: Waited for bullshit to happen to get in Negatives: Stopped out prematurely due to lack of confidence in trade that would have worked


Things to work on:
1. If you aren't going to give it the proper wiggle room then don't bother with the trade.
2. No what if scenarios!!

Saturday, September 17, 2016

Trading Recap 9/16/16

Friday was a profitable day but there were still a lot of fuckups that should have been avoided. It had the opportunity to be a massive day but I really minimized the opportunity out there.

GBSN: I had this on main watch due to the reverse split and the fact that it could tank even lower. I wasn't sure if today it would tank or it could go up based on the now reduced float size and the fact that the shareholders don't have their new shares yet. However, what I didn't see and what I failed to do was check the SEC website and see that new shares were issued so it could have continued to go lower, and it certainly did. I saw that it had stuffed at the open but didn't get in it there as I was still unsure. It tanked a bit and I said ok this isn't ripping it's going lower so any pops should be good. It got to vwap in a hurry and I shorted there. What happened next is it looked like it peaked vwap and then it just shot up on big volume. This was the real entry and a big stuff. It is tough to know what to do in these scenarios if I should have waited for some other move or wait for a stuff. The stuff may not have happened and it could have peaked at vwap and headed lower. The good thing was that I didn't panic here and saw the stuff for what it was. I wish I had added instead but again I didn't know about the dilution. It got back under vwap and then I tried adding to full size but I never got filled. It went a bit lower but I didn't know about the new issuance so I just thought maybe it retests lows and that's it. I was also not being patient with the win and everything was going in my favor. So when it started to push a bit I covered for a small win thinking that with such low volume it could push back at any moment. That wasn't the case and it stuffed $5 (which I said but never got back in) and then proceeded to go $2 lower in a very short amount of time.. Complete miss. Later on in the day I saw that it was perking back up and it looked like it was vwap stuffing. I was thinking of shorting it here but said I think it can go higher first and I wanted to wait for a better setup. So that is what I did. I waited and it did go up higher and then it stuffed again with big volume. I then shorted and got a very nice fill and rode it down and covered half at vwap and let the rest ride. I covered the rest later below vwap because it was such low vol, even worse than before, and I wanted to take a walk. I made more money on the second trade than the first when it went down $2 - not sure what to think of that.. Positives: Didn't get scared out due to stuff and waited for the chart to tell you to get in with the stuff later in the day with perfect entry. Negatives: Didn't research SEC filings like I should have and was therefore too scared and covered for small gains. Didn't reenter stock when I saw it stuffed again. Thought about the money and losing potential gains instead of focusing on the trade. Neutral: Shorted at vwap instead of waiting for some other move like a stuff. It could have peaked into vwap and that was it so tough to say.


CRBP: I had the right read on this but completely traded it the wrong way. I saw it going parabolic a bit and said I don't want to pick a top so I will let it come back down and then have a lower high. This looked like it was a short term top as there was a lot of volume today and it went parabolic vs. other days where it just grinded higher. It started putting in a lower high so I got in. I said this might need to inch up above high of days to get everyone out then it will fall. So I only had half size at this point because I did think the lower high was it. I saw it tried to pop and then fall a bit so I shorted even more (went against my plan) and this was right into support. I got too enthusiastic about it. So what ended up happening was I was full size and it started coming back and so I got out of the add and said forget it to the initial, It made new highs and then sat back down. I said ok this might have gotten people out. I reshorted again half size and it broke the uptrend so I thought this could be it but then it came right back with a small pop and I said forget this low volume stock and what it does so I got out for a tiny tiny profit. It then proceeded to hit the original targets I laid out with going to vwap and then to r/g on the day and eventually hit red. Frustrating and a complete miss. This was a very good setup but I traded it poorly. Positives: Waited for lower high and reshorted after it had failed breakout. Negatives: Added way too quick into support and then didn't respect initial plan to only get out of my add and keep the initial for .80s over/under. Then covered when I had the right entry because I was scared and emotionally depleted and said fuck this.


Things to work on:
1. Read SEC filings
2. Be reactive, not predictive with charts. Let the stock do its thing and then react. Don't predict. You predicted the stock would fade at vwap but it went higher instead. 50/50 it would have worked
3. Stay cool, calm, and collected during the trades. Respect your plans.
4. Don't think about the money!
5. Be patient when trend is your friend. Don't think about unrealized gains you may miss by not selling/covering now.
6.  Don't add too quick.

Thursday, September 15, 2016

Trading Recap 9/15/16

Today was definitely a frustrating day. It was another small losing day and I lost less than yesterday but I am way more frustrated with loss of opportunity and overall poor trading. I have to learn to keep the emotions under control, be patient with the real setup, and not care about the money. It's funny how the days you think you will do well things don't go that well. I didn't go into the day thinking I was going to bank but that there was a lot of potential. I also need to be better with just taking the easy money setups like ACST and BSPM.

AERI: Going into the day I was more long biased thinking it could be another CLCD. I did think that other people might think the same but there was a large short interest in this that CLCD didn't have. On the other side it has gapped up huge before and tanked so there were a few things to contend with. Then I saw that they had a prospectus announced and I immediately got more short biased. Overall, there were a lot of factors going on either way so it was confusing. So what should I have done? NOTHING, DON'T TRADE WHEN CONFUSED. What I ended up doing was going long, then short, then long, then short and getting stopped out emotionally when the short was the way to go. I went long when it dipped on volume and then got bought back up. I thought it was a good entry but of course THESIS>EVERYTHING - THEY WERE SELLING SHARES. WHEN THERE IS A PROSPECTUS YOU SHORT. I tried going long prematurely when vwap never broke. Yeah I got it on dips and was patient but it just failed at vwap each time and I took a loss after being too patient and not scalping it. I did short it when I thought it stuffed a few times but it went a little higher and emotionally covered since I figured since it stuffed it would just go lower as that is the pattern. I was unprepared for it to go a little higher first then go lower so I was emotional. Then after I stopped out of my short and saw it setup even better, I was too spent and said fuck it when that would have been it. Clear confirmation and had you just waited for that all along instead of doing stupid shit that you aren't good at, you would have banked. Lessons: WAIT FOR THE SETUP YOU LIKE. LET THE EMOTIONS AND OTHER PEOPLE TRADE THEN YOU COME IN AND GET THE EASY MONEY. DON'T GET OUT EMOTIONALLY. DON'T TRADE WHEN CONFUSED.


SRPT: I was more short biased but I wasn't completely sure about it. I saw it gapped down and the air seemed to be deflated out of the news yesterday. I saw it at the open and it looked like it stuffed vwap but I wasn't too confident about it and wanted it to go higher first to short. Where I thought it stuffed was the top and it went lower from there. Should I have started in there and maybe add a little higher with overall risk to 31.4s? Meh, not really. While it did work it wasn't really a good setup overall and had I taken it and it didn't work I would have felt stupid. Later on it went quickly into vwap and shorted it at vwap. It was a good trade that I should have done more size on since it was a tight risk but it was just a scalp and nothing fancy. I figured it could squeeze some remaining shorts out then go lower. It never made new lows but it did retest them. I then tried again stupidly after I covered because I thought it could go lower since it was still hovering around lows. I had a stop in mind but while I was in the trade I thought this was stupid and said forget and didn't give it the proper room so took a very tiny loss on it  and it did work kind of for a bit. But overall the lesson is if you make a trade then you have to be committed to it 100%. Don't waste your time with subpar shit.


Things to work on:
1. Keep emotions under control at all times. Always stay in the present when in the trade.
2. Be patient and wait for the real setup to come that you are confident in and can size into. Let the emotions get worked out then you come in.
3. Don't care and don't focus on the money. Just trade well. It's just money.
4. When confused don't trade.
5. When there is a prospectus just short.
6. Don't trade the subpar setups. Either you are committed 100% to a trade or you aren't.

Wednesday, September 14, 2016

Trading Recap 9/14/16

Today was a small losing day but the process and the trading was pretty solid with some slight hiccups but overall it wasn't bad.

LMCA: This was up quite a lot and they are the acquirer in this scenario. It seemed like it had run quite a bit into a logical resistance point as well so it looked like a good short. I wanted to see it under vwap and peak there a couple of times. It started to look weaker than the past few days so I shorted on a pop to vwap with risk to r/g over/under. I thought I got a good entry but it shot up towards r/g. It was hovering around there but then looked like it was holding so I got out. The next candle it slammed back down so I thought it got everyone out so I was interested again but it never setup again. It did stuff though which I immediately shorted after and it did have a small wash. I was looking for a bit more of a pullback although I did see the big volume candle on the wash. It was hovering around the lows of the flush and I thought about taking it off but thought it could still go lower so I wanted to be patient. It ended up coming all the way back and I got out for flat on the trade. I saw there wasn't much volume overall and know how these low volume plays can just float back up. I tried it one last time by mistake. I thought it stuffed again but it was another random candle with the big volume so I tried to get out for flat but ended up taking a tiny loss on that try. It was good trading overall. Should I have covered some on the wash? Meh hindsight is 20/20 and I really thought it would pullback more.


UVXY: I thought that the market had potentially been setting up a long pattern and an ABCD. I shorted UVXY on a pop and when SPY looked like it was holding the prior resistance as support. It wasn't the best trade since I didn't really have an idea if people were really washed out and the market could then move higher but I gave it a shot. Took a small loss. In the future I'll probably avoid this type of play unless I am really confident as I have not had much success. I could have bought the trendline breakout I guess but meh.


SRPT: This was a miss on the longside for me although I was short biased and never shorted it until later in the day which was a flat trade. But it was good I never shorted it since it never really setup and I wasn't too sure about it. It did have a nice wedge that it broke out from in the morning which could have been a decent long attempt. But that's hindsight. I thought the news was meh and even though the float was 30% short, it has had news on this before but it always tanked. This was the first time that it gapped up on this sort of news though. Anyway I thought about shorting it a couple of times but never pulled the trigger since I wasn't too sure. It did get under vwap and I was hesitant to short it but I tried it anyway since I figured it could go lower. But I knew that a lot of stocks just consolidate under vwap and then reclaim so I got out for breakeven. I didn't want to lose on the stupid trade and it turned out to be the right call. I thought about going long after the reclaim but I just didn't have a good read on the stock overall so I avoided it.


Things to remember:
1. Trade the best - fuck the rest. LMCA was ok but UVXY and SRPT were meh.
2. Thesis determines the trade for you. If you don't have a thesis and understand what is going on with intraday fundamentals then just avoid.
3. Use trendlines/wedges more?

Tuesday, September 13, 2016

Trading Recap 9/13/16

Today was a very solid day of trading. Overall pretty proud of how things went. Always room for improvement of course but overall much better.

MOMO: I had this on short watch due to the huge bounce from yesterday and figured it would pullback at least a bit. My goal was to see if it peaked vwap and short on vwap pops. It flushed at the open but I didn't FOMO chase it which was good. Instead I got a nice pop to vwap which I started into. My risk was to 23.10s over/under. I didn't expect it to go back there to be honest. But it did and it did spike through it but came back down. I was almost ready to get out then but told myself that I was in small size and I had to let it test over/under. The entry that I thought was good ended up being not the best but it was ok. I stayed at partial size until a bit later when it wasn't peaking at 23.10s anymore but instead vwap. I added in for the breakdown and then added when it broke under the .50s support and peaked there. I covered 1/3 into the first drop to let myself be patient on the rest because I knew it could fade to 21s at least. It went around 50 cents lower but started to stop going down and basing so I got out another 1/3 in the 21.60s and then after it was clear it wasn't going down any more I got out the rest. I have traded this stock a lot in the past couple of weeks so I have a good feel of when it stops going lower. I did try a really small short again after it was retesting lows and looked like it could fade again but it never did so I got for a tiny loss. Overall great trade. Positives: You gave it enough room and covered as it went lower and added at appropriate spots and were patient the entire time both in entries and with exits.


WYNN: I had this on watch because I saw the daily chart and how it sped up into resistance so quickly compared to prior attempts. I wanted to short if a setup came up and if the market didn't want to bounce. The market didn't bounce of course and once I saw WYNN was under vwap I shorted with risk to vwap over/under. It is a crazy stock (I now remember playing it) and it spiked a bit through vwap and then stuffed pretty hard so after it started fading after that I added in since that was pretty telling and I got a nice wash to support where I thankfully covered half per my plan. I planned to let the rest ride or re add if I saw the opportunity. Instead, WYNN rocketed past my initial entry and past vwap very quickly. I was going to get out at the top of course but said "it should dip first to vwap and then I'll get out". I had a feeling it went up way too quick all of a sudden and while I was ok with taking a loss on the rest, I figured I could get a better price on my stop out. It did exactly that and covered for a small loss on the rest and came out up slightly on the name which was good. Overall rock solid here with covering at support as per your plan and then waiting for a dip to cover the rest on. I did want to short it again after it stuffed in the 114s and went red again which would have been really nice but I didn't. Positives: Gave it enough room on my initial, added when it stuffed pretty hard, covered half per my plan, and was patient on stopping out on the rest. In hindsight the fact that it went a bit higher on that stuff first should have been within my risk anyway. That area is resistance from the open anyway.


UVXY: My only loser for the day and a stupidish trade. I shorted UVXY at this point because SPY had broken a downtrend line for the day and I thought based on that a reversal could happen. I waited for it to retest and spot from where it broke out from and for the $24s to peak a little on UVXY. I shorted right under $24 with risk to $24 over/under. This was stupid because the real area as $24.20-30s over/under, not $24. So I covered at the top of that push when that should have been part of my risk anyway. It didn't work anyway. However, I shouldn't have shorted UVXY because of my thought process and my overall idea of what was going on. My idea was that not enough people had been washed out for any real bounce to occur. At this point in the market, people were will reasonable ok with how things were going. I figured it would need a bit more to flush out everyone. This is what ended up happening and so I should have went long UVXY instead on dips. Lesson: Always listen to your thesis about the particular trade first. Give things their true stop - make sure to look at the chart for proper areas of where to give it to. This is same from yesterday.

Things to remember:
1. Be true to your stop. Make sure to really look at the chart for proper areas to stop out at.
2. Only stop out on the add as long as initial entry's stop isn't invalidated.
3. No FOMO - have patience in entry and exit

Monday, September 12, 2016

Trading Recap 9/12/16

Today was another meh day. It was a small losing day so it wasn't a big deal. There were some positives and negatives - some things I did go and some things could be better. The losing days are a lot smaller than the winner days as of late so that's the main thing. Had I traded some ideas I had today instead today would have been very profitable but oh well.

PII: I saw this stock had cut its earnings guidance by half for the full year. I was interested in any pops/patterns to short. I thought about getting in when it looked like it stuffed at 9:32 but wanted to wait and see how it developed since I knew it could have a second push. It did have a second push but then came off and had a lower high which is where it shorted. This was very good. After it got under vwap I figured it was ok so I added again. This was bad because I had a feeling it would just hover under vwap and then come back up again. It did do that so I covered the add on the spike up. Maybe I should have given it more room but ideally no adds at all until it had some lower highs under vwap and wasn't just hugging it. What was good was I kept the initial as per my plan. It did look like it was going to breakout over $76 but it never did and I held on. Later on though it consolidated above vwap and was looking like an abcd so I got out for flat on my average price so it was a small loss overall. I did see it stuff a little on the consolidation so when it started going a little lower I shorted again. I was very patient with it and despite wanting to add a few times I didn't because it wasn't for sure. What was good was I gave it room to vwap over/under and let it test a few times. Eventually it came to around $74 and thought we would get the washout but it just hovered there and a part of me wanted to cover there since it looked like WATT would do when it stopped going lower. But this is a different scenario/stock so I wanted to be patient anyway. I was pretty patient with it anyway and thought it got everyone out so it could actually go lower. Instead that was the bottom and it ripped up. I put a breakeven stop which got a hit and that was it. Positives: Gave things enough room and let things play out and only stopped out of the add Negatives: Added a little too quick


UVXY: I originally wanted to short this in the morning as it ramped and SPY wasn't tanking right away. This turned out to be a great trade and the HOD. Later on, I saw UVXY was holding up despite the SPY being at highs and going higher. I thought that there could be reversal in the market so I went long UVXY but just got in at a shit price and right at resistance. I bought the high and I was never up on the position. I sold it and it was a small overall loss but it was my biggest loser today that could have been avoided. It went much lower so that was a good stop. Later on I saw the same thing and tried again and got in on a good dip this time. It didn't work the way I wanted so I sold for flat and good thing I did because the minute after I sold, that huge flush happened and I would have definitely sold into that not expecting any bounce. The correct thing to do was to short all pops but oh well. Positives: Waited for a dip on the second attempt Negatives: First try was a FOMO entry Lesson: Just because UVXY has the premium accumulation doesn't mean SPY won't go higher so this isn't a valid reason for a trade


NUGT: I originally saw this in the morning for a potential long as it went under the premarket support and then came back up quickly, which I have seen work. It then looked like it got rejected pretty hard right after so I avoided it but it worked out nicely. Had it gapped down more or been 2-3 days of red days then I would have been more inclined to take it. Anyway, after the fed news hit and NUGT rocketed, I looked for a potential short and after it broke out past then highs from the move and then came right back down I shorted and I was just looking for a scalp to the bottom of the range. I got that quickly so I took my profit. That was a decent scalp. Later on though when it went red I thought if it went back red then it should go back to where it was before the news since that is what the market was looking like it was doing at the time as well. I shorted the pop to r/g which was good but it didn't work so I covered when it broke past r/g. This was a meh trade - I guess my edge was in the first trade I think. The last trade I took in it was just stupid. I shorted it as it got to the breakout highs too quickly, I thought to myself. It was a stupid trade and I was wrong right away and got out. I ended up even in NUGT. When I have trades like the first one I should have done more size since the risk was minimal and there was emotion to be taken advantage of. The second trade was meh and the third trade should have never been done.


Other stocks:

ACIA: The best trade was on the ABCD/flag breakout in the morning. I didn't want to buy the breakout due to SSR being on but it would have worked well.


Things to remember:
1. Take advantage of emotion and only emotion on certain plays - that is your edge
2. Don't add too quick
3. Give things enough room and only stop out of the add if initial's stop hasn't been triggered
4. No FOMO
5. Premium accumulation in UVXY is not a valid trade thesis