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Tuesday, September 6, 2016

Trading Recap 9/6/16

Frustrating day. I ended up flat when again I should have been up massive. Some lessons here today, I think.

MOMO: This was a frustrating trade overall. I had prepared for this but traded it horribly and ended up being down on the name overall despite having the right idea and shorting it. The problem was adding in way too quick because "I thought this was it" and not really having any plan if it went back up and I did full size so quick. I scaled in way too quick and got scared out and when I did short it later on all the money I made on it went towards the ridiculous loss on it. My first entry was ok and when it went red it was ok to add but that was it. I added in full size when it looked to peak r/g but should have waited since it was way too quick and at the open too. Yeah, it could have kept fading from there and "I thought this was the day" but look what happened here. No good. Had I kept to half size I could have risked to .80s o/u or vwap o/u and while it did go through vwap it came right back down. After it dropped vwap I shorted again because I figured if it failed vwap again and didn't hold then it still had a shot at going lower. I added when it went red and the level that held before dropped. Unfortunately I only had half size this time due to being scared it would pop and I would only want to be half size instead at that point. It dropped and it consolidated for a bit. I covered near the top of the consolidation because I thought this could be it. If this was the day it would fade, which it definitely looked like at this point, then why would I cover here??? I then reshorted when I thought it would go lower within the consolidation and it made new lows by a penny but then came back a little. Not wanting the same thing to happen last time, I just got out.. and this time it went another 50 cents lower. The lessons here: 1. Don't add so quick and only add at strategic spots. First entry was fine and second was fine as it went red. The add to full size was bad as I should have waited for other lower highs to really confirm. The other option here was to do one shot half or full size. To risk to vwap over/under wouldn't have been much for the first entry. At the same time though for the second entry, it had already come off $1 and would have bounced most likely at least a little. Tough to say overall. The biggest thing is to just trade your plan, remain in the present, and scale in/out if need be and not just wing it. I think 25/25 was the better option because the first entry was already when it was down a bit and wasn't on a pop and same with the second but with 50 shares I would have been ok with the risk to .80s o/u. For the second trade, the key thing here is just because it did once before it doesn't mean it will happen again and the bigger picture takes precedence. Sometimes stuff like that works and sometimes it doesn't. The key is to let it do its thing for a little bit and see what happens. The first time it did that it reclaimed some support but this time it didn't have much followthrough. So the key is to be patient on these especially given bigger picture idea.


CLCD: What a miss.. I was actually long but sold because "it could stuff and be a false breakout after breaking past premarket highs like ACIA did". Doh. Two completely different setups - this is DAY 1 vs. DAY 3. Anyway. I originally thought that this could fade based on the fact that the news wasn't the best and they had an effect out so it was possible they would be selling into this. So I shorted when $20 was absorbing on the offer and it worked for a nice scalp. This however was just gap sellers selling. My cover was also shit because it just bounced a little off vwap at that point. If my big picture idea was that it was going to fade at this point, why am I covering at the smallest incidence that it might bounce a little? I noticed that it was consolidating nicely and I knew that these could run once they consolidate and don't just fade lower. I was thinking of starting in before vwap but I wasn't so sure and wanted it to prove itself so I got long on dips to vwap and then added when the bids were absorbing after it broke out. I then pikered out as mentioned before even though I had a big picture in mind for the trade. I could have easily held on no problem given the big picture and not look at each and every candle like it was the top. Later on I remember a stock like OMER that faded but this was more like ITEK but anyway I shorted after it had extended a bit and had some speed runup in price action. I covered at a bad time and the trade would have worked later. You have to short when it looks like it will breakout and then doesn't. Later on I tried shorting EOD when it squeezed and looked to have broken out but lost a little on it. Lessons: Think big picture and stick to your guns. Don't look at minutia of chart.


LULU: This had a good pattern for continued downside. I went in after it peaked vwap and had a lower high. Here is another example of not taking everything so seriously. It broke under .50 with huge volume then came back and it looked what PAY did when it broke down on big volume and that was it. So I got out for flat essentially but it continued lower instead. Looking at PAY now though, LULU did the same thing except it didn't fake breakdown. It did pop after that but then it did continue lower like PAY did and LULU kept going lower and for PAY that was it after the false breakdown. So in the future I won't care about these little things. I have to keep the big picture in mind.


BZUN: I had this on watch due to it being overextended and in case it went below vwap. It went below vwap and I shorted with risk to vwap o/u. I should have done more shares for this and for a lot of other plays since the risk was small but anyway I covered like a piker for some reason because I thought it would come back for some reason that I don't know why and then it proceeded to absolutely washout and I missed the easy money. Again. big picture.


ACIA: Stupid trade. I thought it would be a double top like what happened a few days ago but again - DIFFERENT CIRCUMSTANCES. The big pictures matters the most. There it was running into resistance but here it had consolidated on the daily and was heading higher.


DVAX: I thought this could go higher like the prison stocks did on their second day but it didn't do much. I bought small in case it broke out and then added at support. It got out for flat when I decided to wait if 14 broke and held which it never did.


Things to remember:
1. Don't think so much and don't burn yourself out. Just think big picture and trade accordingly. Maybe stop using 1min charts.
2. Remain in the present and trade your plan. Be patient.
3. Don't look at minutia of chart - you will burn yourself out with all these decisions you have to make.
4. Just because it happened before doesn't mean it will happen again - big picture!!

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