Saturday, January 7, 2017
Trading Recap 1/6/17
Friday was a flat trading day although there was a decent amount of opportunity that I missed out on. Friday basically came down to "meh". What I mean by that is me starting to feel that any particular idea or trade comes down to "maybe it can work, maybe not.. meh". While that can be an ok mindset and can lead to a probabilities mindset, I am taking it to the extreme which isn't good. I thought maybe it comes down to not having a positive expectation of the system of trades I take. I thought it could be a bunch of other stuff but basically I guess it comes down to having this mindset but just taking the trades anyway and just learning as time goes on when and what stocks to buy or short. That is pretty much it as far as a recap goes. I didn't trade much at all even though there was decent opportunity. ALXN for instance looked just like ACIA did on one day before it had a nice move upward but I never took the trade due to that meh. GPS I had a right read on even though my bias was long initially but after seeing how it was trading I became more short biased but didn't take it either. The only trades I took were on REGN and AMGN - both I had solid ideas on and AMGN I had decent trades on but ended up flat on that even though I would have made decent money. For REGN I didn't get in when I wanted to because of that meh and then finally got in at a random point and just got out for flat.
Thursday, January 5, 2017
Trading Recap 1/5/17
Today ended up being better than yesterday. It was a similar story though. Bullshit trades in the morning and then working my way back to positive and actually having a decent profitable day. But the bullshit trades have to stop.
Some new things to also remember and work on:
1. RULE #1 FOR ME: UNLESS I SEE THE TRADE RIGHT AWAY AND "AM EXCITED FOR IT" THEN DON'T BOTHER. CHANCES ARE IT WON'T WORK FOR ME.
2. Don't use the tick chart unless what it is saying aligns with the 3/5min chart.
3. It's much better to wish you were in a trade than wish you were out of one.
4. Unless you are very clear about a S/R level then don't bother with it. If it's not major or at least clearly defined then don't bother. If you have to squint and look at different angles to see it and think about it then don't bother.
5. Just trade the setups you see from rule #1 above with bigger size and that is it.
Misc:
You must keep a calm focus throughout the session. You must avoid thinking in terms of PnL and shift your attention to what the market is doing. Avoid talking about generic things like missing moves, just focus on the patterns you see and do those better.
Some new things to also remember and work on:
1. RULE #1 FOR ME: UNLESS I SEE THE TRADE RIGHT AWAY AND "AM EXCITED FOR IT" THEN DON'T BOTHER. CHANCES ARE IT WON'T WORK FOR ME.
2. Don't use the tick chart unless what it is saying aligns with the 3/5min chart.
3. It's much better to wish you were in a trade than wish you were out of one.
4. Unless you are very clear about a S/R level then don't bother with it. If it's not major or at least clearly defined then don't bother. If you have to squint and look at different angles to see it and think about it then don't bother.
5. Just trade the setups you see from rule #1 above with bigger size and that is it.
Misc:
You must keep a calm focus throughout the session. You must avoid thinking in terms of PnL and shift your attention to what the market is doing. Avoid talking about generic things like missing moves, just focus on the patterns you see and do those better.
Wednesday, January 4, 2017
Trading Recap 1/4/17
Frustrating day today although I guess there are a few lessons to be learned. I was down a lot in the morning and then made it all back and was flat before going right back to where I was in the morning by the end of the day.
Basically a list of things to remember going forward:
1. Don't short a stock above its offering price even if it sets up for it.
2. If you actually take a trade then it means you are fully committed to it and that means it has to be good enough for you to risk over/under on and give it enough room. There should be no breakeven trades just because you are afraid of losing money. That is bad process assuming it is a good trade.
3. Don't try to pick the top on something even though it looks good. Today on WTW it had big volume and had a certain pattern running right into daily chart resistance. Of course looking back it was crowded short and whenever the small amount of times I do think "this should be easy" is when I should probably do the opposite. Also, the big volume running into resistance hasn't been a good setup as it has never worked for me so just because it is doing that, I will not be taking that trade from now on.
4. On the things you expect to just go up or down a bit, they end up going a lot higher/lower. The stuff you have high expectations for usually don't work out so well probably because everyone is thinking the same thing. Keep that in mind.
5. I keep seeing that these big volume spikes don't have much to do with anything. It is really contextual. I can't just make a trade based on the volume. Of course I have seen it work time and time again but perhaps it is more on the low floats. It works occasionally on larger cap stocks as well but that should not be my only reason for taking a trade.
6. What I said yesterday - the chart can do anything. S/R are the only thing that matters.
7. Don't bother with iffy trades.
8. Today I traded LABU today and I honestly don't know what I saw with each pattern I took. I really don't know what I saw. I have to so much more aware of being sure what I am seeing is actually what is there - as weird as that sounds due to me being a very visual person. This was my biggest losing ticker today for that exact reason. After I had one bad trade on it, I did another bad trade on it which cost me even more. My initial idea ended up being the correct idea and it was using higher timeframe S/R! I said it would retest the breakout area as support and then go higher which is exactly what it did!! Keep that in mind going forward.
9. Don't discount what SPY is doing when trading certain stocks.
10. No bullshit trades.
11. Use the level 2 sparingly. On CLVS, there was a seller there but he eventually got bought up and the stock was a trender the entire day so don't discount what it is doing based on the level 2. In most cases, the level 2 will harm you.
12. Use S/R despite fake highs/lows.
13. Don't have high hopes for a miracle flush or something to make a trade worth it, especially at EOD.
14. I think just stick with the 5min and use the 3min for when you are really considering something.
Basically a list of things to remember going forward:
1. Don't short a stock above its offering price even if it sets up for it.
2. If you actually take a trade then it means you are fully committed to it and that means it has to be good enough for you to risk over/under on and give it enough room. There should be no breakeven trades just because you are afraid of losing money. That is bad process assuming it is a good trade.
3. Don't try to pick the top on something even though it looks good. Today on WTW it had big volume and had a certain pattern running right into daily chart resistance. Of course looking back it was crowded short and whenever the small amount of times I do think "this should be easy" is when I should probably do the opposite. Also, the big volume running into resistance hasn't been a good setup as it has never worked for me so just because it is doing that, I will not be taking that trade from now on.
4. On the things you expect to just go up or down a bit, they end up going a lot higher/lower. The stuff you have high expectations for usually don't work out so well probably because everyone is thinking the same thing. Keep that in mind.
5. I keep seeing that these big volume spikes don't have much to do with anything. It is really contextual. I can't just make a trade based on the volume. Of course I have seen it work time and time again but perhaps it is more on the low floats. It works occasionally on larger cap stocks as well but that should not be my only reason for taking a trade.
6. What I said yesterday - the chart can do anything. S/R are the only thing that matters.
7. Don't bother with iffy trades.
8. Today I traded LABU today and I honestly don't know what I saw with each pattern I took. I really don't know what I saw. I have to so much more aware of being sure what I am seeing is actually what is there - as weird as that sounds due to me being a very visual person. This was my biggest losing ticker today for that exact reason. After I had one bad trade on it, I did another bad trade on it which cost me even more. My initial idea ended up being the correct idea and it was using higher timeframe S/R! I said it would retest the breakout area as support and then go higher which is exactly what it did!! Keep that in mind going forward.
9. Don't discount what SPY is doing when trading certain stocks.
10. No bullshit trades.
11. Use the level 2 sparingly. On CLVS, there was a seller there but he eventually got bought up and the stock was a trender the entire day so don't discount what it is doing based on the level 2. In most cases, the level 2 will harm you.
12. Use S/R despite fake highs/lows.
13. Don't have high hopes for a miracle flush or something to make a trade worth it, especially at EOD.
14. I think just stick with the 5min and use the 3min for when you are really considering something.
Tuesday, January 3, 2017
Trading Recap 1/3/17
Slightly positive day to start off the new year. Should have been a lot more. I must continue to realize that it is ok to lose money in this profession on the setups that make sense to you - and only those. I was more selective today in what I wanted to trade but was still hesitant in executing on trades I thought were good. However, thinking just purely in terms of s/r and going by that almost exclusively for my trades has proven to be a good change and one that I need to continue focusing on in order to avoid any bullshit trades.
NVDA: I wasn't sure if I should long dips or short pops on this at the open so I decided to wait it out and see what would happen. At the open it dropped, ripped back, and then formed some sort of a "pattern" of mine where it looked like it got rejected but I wasn't going to take a trade based on that. I am fully committed to rework my trading to really just focus on s/r trades as looking at charts now make things seem much clearer for me and how my mind works. It made a new low but then came right back to the same level as the prior low. This is another "pattern" of mine that also would have worked in this instance. But I am "detoxing" myself from any bullshit trade so I wasn't going to take them. After it made new highs and retested the support from Friday where I thought about shorting but decided to wait for more info, it came back down below the breakout area from before. This here was a legit trade. Unfortunately I didn't get in here. I'm not sure had I even put an order in that I would have gotten filled. I guess a potential lesson here is to break up your order maybe and do half at the lower end of where you think it will peak and then if it goes towards the higher end then add the other half and you can stop out if it goes any higher. The part I actually got in for was quick, I saw it was peaking a small area of prior support and looked like it could fade. I shorted it on a "pop" and was immediately in the money and right after I shorted it, it dropped and made new lows. I had put a bid in for a $1 lower than where it went. I was contemplating if I should move my stop up or not or let it test around to see if it could go lower. It did break on decent volume so that made me think if it got above $100 again then I'd just get out. It ended up going through $100 by a bit and getting me out. I thought it was a mistake at the time but it ended up making a higher low and then rebounding. Process wise it's 50/50 as to whether or not I should have moved my stop up or let it test around with a breakeven stop at worse. When it started going below some lows I thought it could fade more so when it dropped $100 and started peaking it a little I shorted there. Here, I put a breakeven stop and it was for the best results-wise. But I probably should have given it the full out to over $100. It was one of those "it should work right away moments" and while it worked here it's not good process. The bigger reason probably is because it was a chase on the normal chart and not the tick chart I was looking at so that might be the reason I was anxious.
DUST: I bought this on what looked like a bullflag pattern that ended up being a fakeout. It looked like a decent bull flag but it just faked out/I bought at resistance. I gave it a decent amount of room on smaller size but I knew it faked out. I might try this again though as I have seen it work. Maybe I should just focus on the dips/pops though. Later in the day I thought GDX was topping and at one point had a fake breakout and a lower high so I bought DUST on a dip twice. The first time I prematurely stopped out although I figured at that point it wasn't going to work. Then it did start to work a little but then I put a breakeven stop as we were getting towards the close and it really was just going to either work or it wasn't. The pattern on the GDX was quite weird and it ended up going higher at the last minute at EOD. It ended up shaking people out and then reclaiming and then going higher. Not much to learn from this experience as it could have definitely worked and the higher timeframe didn't negate what I thought was going to happen to happen. The only thing to take away is to be more selective with the flags you take and possibly just stick to s/r.
Things to remember:
1. I must continue to realize that it is ok to lose money in this profession on the setups that make sense to you - and only those.
2. A potential lesson here is to break up your order maybe and do half at the lower end of where you think it will peak and then if it goes towards the higher end then add the other half and you can stop out if it goes any higher.
3. Any pattern/chart can do anything - just play off of s/r.
4. Volume exhaustion has to make sense in context - IDXG the biggest volume was way early in the run. It's not always the best indicator of a top or bottom.
NVDA: I wasn't sure if I should long dips or short pops on this at the open so I decided to wait it out and see what would happen. At the open it dropped, ripped back, and then formed some sort of a "pattern" of mine where it looked like it got rejected but I wasn't going to take a trade based on that. I am fully committed to rework my trading to really just focus on s/r trades as looking at charts now make things seem much clearer for me and how my mind works. It made a new low but then came right back to the same level as the prior low. This is another "pattern" of mine that also would have worked in this instance. But I am "detoxing" myself from any bullshit trade so I wasn't going to take them. After it made new highs and retested the support from Friday where I thought about shorting but decided to wait for more info, it came back down below the breakout area from before. This here was a legit trade. Unfortunately I didn't get in here. I'm not sure had I even put an order in that I would have gotten filled. I guess a potential lesson here is to break up your order maybe and do half at the lower end of where you think it will peak and then if it goes towards the higher end then add the other half and you can stop out if it goes any higher. The part I actually got in for was quick, I saw it was peaking a small area of prior support and looked like it could fade. I shorted it on a "pop" and was immediately in the money and right after I shorted it, it dropped and made new lows. I had put a bid in for a $1 lower than where it went. I was contemplating if I should move my stop up or not or let it test around to see if it could go lower. It did break on decent volume so that made me think if it got above $100 again then I'd just get out. It ended up going through $100 by a bit and getting me out. I thought it was a mistake at the time but it ended up making a higher low and then rebounding. Process wise it's 50/50 as to whether or not I should have moved my stop up or let it test around with a breakeven stop at worse. When it started going below some lows I thought it could fade more so when it dropped $100 and started peaking it a little I shorted there. Here, I put a breakeven stop and it was for the best results-wise. But I probably should have given it the full out to over $100. It was one of those "it should work right away moments" and while it worked here it's not good process. The bigger reason probably is because it was a chase on the normal chart and not the tick chart I was looking at so that might be the reason I was anxious.
DUST: I bought this on what looked like a bullflag pattern that ended up being a fakeout. It looked like a decent bull flag but it just faked out/I bought at resistance. I gave it a decent amount of room on smaller size but I knew it faked out. I might try this again though as I have seen it work. Maybe I should just focus on the dips/pops though. Later in the day I thought GDX was topping and at one point had a fake breakout and a lower high so I bought DUST on a dip twice. The first time I prematurely stopped out although I figured at that point it wasn't going to work. Then it did start to work a little but then I put a breakeven stop as we were getting towards the close and it really was just going to either work or it wasn't. The pattern on the GDX was quite weird and it ended up going higher at the last minute at EOD. It ended up shaking people out and then reclaiming and then going higher. Not much to learn from this experience as it could have definitely worked and the higher timeframe didn't negate what I thought was going to happen to happen. The only thing to take away is to be more selective with the flags you take and possibly just stick to s/r.
Things to remember:
1. I must continue to realize that it is ok to lose money in this profession on the setups that make sense to you - and only those.
2. A potential lesson here is to break up your order maybe and do half at the lower end of where you think it will peak and then if it goes towards the higher end then add the other half and you can stop out if it goes any higher.
3. Any pattern/chart can do anything - just play off of s/r.
4. Volume exhaustion has to make sense in context - IDXG the biggest volume was way early in the run. It's not always the best indicator of a top or bottom.
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