Trading Recap 11/27/15

I was looking forward to making some trades but ended up not taking anything even though I tried to get some orders filled. I think if there was a theme for today's action, it was easy vs. hard plays. There are the hard plays which everyone is looking it and then the easy ones that are on nobody's radar and act very predictably. It's always best to focus on the easy plays and then see if the hard plays are worth trading.

CANF: This was the easy trade for the day which I tried to get filled on a few times but unfortunately never did. A predictable PR/ER gap up happens and then when no one is watching the stock falls back to oblivion. This has happened time and time again on this stock and the stuff right at the open solidified the idea that this would just be an all day fader, as usual. I tried shorting $3.66 and a little lower but the constant selling made it hard to get a fill.

AEZS: I didn't have any thoughts about this at the open although maybe I should have been short biased given the weakness that followed in premkt since there were clear lower highs. Once it did washout a bit though, it had some higher lows and looked really nice for a reclaim of support and continue higher. It ended up spiking close to $2 before coming back down. Sort of a random play that wasn't really worth much. Just because a support has reclaimed in this fashion doesn't mean a spike like this will occur.

VLTC: I wasn't too interested in it since the SSR was on. It ended up washing out nicely but then squeezed back towards $8.5. I wanted to short around $8.5 but there was no margin allowed so it wasn't worth it.

GENE: I was looking for the prior day's support to crack for a short. Once it cracked and peaked I tried filling on a short but it never came to me. It wouldn't have been worth it anyway since it came back.

KBIO: I believe I was long bias going into the open due to the news that no more shares would be lent for shorts and the fact that suretrader and other brokers had it ETB, which I thought would make it crowded and a more likely squeeze candidate. It looked like it was going to crack but then got back up, which got me interested since I thought perhaps some shorts got trapped. I was looking for any strength to start into since I wanted to see some signs of a squeeze first. However, it looked very heavy and it just fell instead. It had a nice descending triangle so the short was easy enough but I didn't act on it since I was only really looking for a long.

EFUT: Looking back at how KBIO traded on Day1 and comparing it to EFUT, the charts are pretty damn similar. I did look at this chart beforehand was short biased for the morning but didn't think there were any good entries. However, and looking back this was foolish, I saw it was consolidating with an ABCD pattern and so became more long biased, especially after seeing on Twitter how this deal had actual potential. (Note to self although I probably made a note to myself already on this: Don't listen to twitter for real time trade feedback like this.) Looking at the KBIO chart now, it did the same thing before dropping and then not doing much for the rest of the day. Nate mentioned how it was trading heavy and not thin like a 2M float ticker would be trading. Nate also shorted right at the open and the readded when it pushed a bit higher. I could not get a sense of that from looking at the L2 and while there wasn't much volatility, if that is what they meant. I need to get better identifying things like this.

Trading Recap 11/17/15

Today had the potential to be a great day but I didn't take any trades. I really believe that I am starting to understand the generation of ideas aspect to trading, but I still have a long way to go. I just have to trade the tickers well. The thing holding me back from taking trades is not being able to have a proper risk set for my account. Since my account is extremely small, I need to look for situations where the risk is extremely low and the reward is great. Even taking 100 shares, like I mentioned a few weeks, is tough when the volatility is great. I know on one hand that there isn't much money at risk in an absolute sense so I should probably take any trade I think would work and see what happens even if I lose the $80 or whatever to get my account below $500. I try to keep the risk to around $20 at most so the risk would have to be 20 cents at most for 100 shares, which is tough. As I think I have said before, for now I am just learning as much as possible and may make the occasional trade or two (unless I hit a home run with one of my occasional trades). It's definitely possible to get out of this hole, though the odds are against me and I have no expectations. I do have some extra money but I would rather wait this time and save up more money than put all my money again into a small account only to blow it up again. If I had waited this entire time to fund an account vs. kept putting smaller amounts of money into an account, I would have had a fighting chance I think. But who knows, it's all speculation.


OCRX: This should have been the main gainer for me and I did notice the parabolic and the top that formed around $4.5. I could have shorted right around $4.5 with ok risk but I wasn't too sure about it since I have not really traded parabolics like this before, but rather the aftermath. I was looking for lower highs which came but the risk was kind of high. It then looked like it had higher lows (where I drew the trendline) and so I avoided it there, but then it dropped even more and kept fading the rest of the day. Another good lesson here is not to take the chart literally. What I mean by that is as traders we must have a thesis of a trade and then let the chart tell us in general terms of how to trade it. Small higher lows on the 1 min aren't that important, for example. But rather general over/under areas that act as support and resistance are the key, I think. Otherwise you keep psyching yourself out. If you shorted something and it breaks out or reclaims then the chart is telling you to get out. Smaller higher lows without any reclaim of support or going to new highs is not significant.

DKS: The only losing idea I had. I was looking for continued downside and saw it made nlods going for the support from premkt. I was thinking of shorting but didn't due to big risk and glad I didn't since I would have been stopped out. After it consolidated at LODs and reclaimed, it made a good long but I didn't see that since I had to go.

CMCM: I saw this gapping and at the open consolidating. It looked like a good short when it cracked support and I was thinking of shorting but again, big risk. Then again, if I went in when I should have, it wouldn't have been that big of a risk. Same as OCRX... I can't puss out like this.

CLVS: I was looking at the gap down and thought that this could have continued downside since it wasn't bouncing and I think a lot of people are in it for the bounce. The fact that it gapped down was evident enough that the market didn't take too kindly to their news. Part of the reason I was afraid to take it was because it was down so much but I have to remind myself to not think "oh, it can't go that much lower/higher" in these cases, like with CEMP in a prior blog post. The biggest reason though was I would have had to have $1 risk, which is too much, although even with 30 shares and it going down $2 that is a decent win.

SUNE: Another good idea I had that I failed to trade. I was looking at it from a bigger timeframe perspective and saw that it was still weak and could slip further which made me interested in the short. The prior day's support was $4.5 so I wanted to see that crack and then I would go in. Unfortunately, I wasn't paying much attention to this since by the time I saw it it had slipped even more. I was thinking of shorting in the low $4s but it felt like chasing at that point and not much downside would commence. Was I wrong on that..

Once I have a bigger account and can take multiples positions at once and cut the losers like DKS and add to the winners like SUNE, OCRX, CMCM, CLVS then I will be good to go.

Trading Recap 11/12/15

No trades for me today as well. There wasn't too much I was interested in/the stocks I was looking at didn't do what I wanted them to do. Here's another recap.

KSS: Coming off of JCP and M yesterday I thought KSS would be another good fade opportunity so I was looking for any lower highs to get short. As the opening candles formed, I saw it get to that $46.7 resistance, but I wanted to see lower highs for some indication to start in. I was also looking at that $45.7 support from premarket to peak. Instead it was holding and all dips were being bought up. At the open it looked like it was peaking at the $46 level when the candle was forming but then a surge of buying came in, which gave me pause. After a few more minutes I noticed an uptrend forming and drew the appropriate line. From then on I wasn't interested in it until the uptrend failed. Normally, these plays, if they are going to fade, they have lower highs right off the open and don't open strong. So that in addition to the uptrend, made me more disinterested in the trade. I highlighted two spots with arrows on the chart where I was interested in shorting. But I wanted to see lower highs first, like I said. These bigger stocks usually offer lower highs before the fade comes although not always.

ANFI: I was looking for a weak open r/g on this. It had good news and it held up nicely yesterday. I was looking for it to reclaim $7.5 and perk from there. It washed out and did reclaim $7.5 and held which got me interested. It then perked green and was looking like it was holding so I was about to place my entry around $7.7 (where the arrow is). It dropped back to red before I placed my order so I waited to see what would happen. From there is just faded so I'm glad I didn't go in.

SUNE: I was originally looking to short pops on this for a third day down since premarket it was just grinding lower and there was no washout. However, at the open it did have a nice washout and I should have changed my bias to long since it washed out 10% in two candles. I was still looking for pops but didn't have as much confidence in the trade so I didn't take anything, which was good. One thing to note going forward is any washouts like this should be taken long - the key is the washout and not just grinding lower.

WTW: I was looking at this for the ABCD I noticed on a bigger timeframe. I was looking for $23 to hold and perk. It reclaimed and held but didn't seem to have much volume and I was more preoccupied with other stocks so wasn't paying that much attention when it started to perk even more towards going green.

SPHS: It was non-shortable at ST and with the price targets yesterday and with it holding up I thought it had trapped shorts and so I was looking for any support to reclaim and hold and perk. If it reclaimed the premarket support of $3.35 then I would be interested. It popped through it so I looked for it to confirm holding and perking. In one candle it dipped and then right afterwards it ripped to nHODs so it didn't give me a chance to get in. It might not have been worth it anyway since it traded like it was bipolar the entire day.

Trading Recap 11/10/15

I know it's been a while (2-3 weeks) since I posted a recap but that is because I haven't been able to trade at all due to bullshit school work. Anyway, most of that is done for now and I was able to trade yesterday although I didn't take any trades, but did try to get filled on some. This is just going to be a recap of the trades I was looking at.


SPHS: I was short biased going into the open and was looking for any stuff move or a move to the premarket highs to get short into. There was quite a bit of range at the open so it was difficult to set an appropriate risk even with 100 shares. Anyway, at 9:32 there was a move to new highs since the open that got harshly rejected. I did not pay much attention to this as I was looking at other stocks but this was the key for an entry. From there it slid for a good portion of the day until coming back. I wanted to get short in the $2.70s or even $3 since I thought it would be an all day fader but that didn't happen.

FOLD: The daily chart on this was quite overextended with multiple green days. The day before was its first red day so I wanted to see continued failed momentum. As I mentioned in a prior recap, if there is a clear support from the prior day, that can be a good start to start in short if it cracks. For FOLD, that was the $10.20 area, which did crack but it was later in the hour I have for trading before I have to go to class and so I didn't bother taking it since I didn't want to have to monitor it for the rest of the day while in school. It ended up being a nice fader from there.

WTW: I was looking to short this but it just tanked at the open. I wasn't really paying attention to it when I should since it presented a pattern I am very familiar with, where the stock attempts to break out but then doesn't and the next high is at the same resistance.

VRX: I saw a stuff near the open and have seen stuffs work on VRX before in a similar fashion. I didn't have any thesis for the trade though other than it stuffed and wasn't sure if there was anything going on with the company as far as news etc. I still looked for a pop after the stuff to get in but it never really came although I could have gotten in no problem with the risk.