Trading Recap 2/20/15

Today was an interesting day for me. I had both my highest realized gain and loss within the same day with the Suretrader account so far. Some lessons have been learned and the market has humbled me yet again.

HALO: I closed my HALO swing from 14.78 to 15.48, which for now seems like the top. It tried many times to get over 50 but it didn't and after this morning's big flush I had enough of this whippy stock. The funny part of this is that I thought I bought at .75 so I put my stop there for breakeven a couple of days and it ended up going to 14.76 before coming back up. If I had put my stop correctly, I would have stopped out and I wouldn't have had this gain. I am glad that I was able to stay patient through all of its choppiness though. It kept going below 15 but then the dips were being bought back up so it was still holding as support. Yesterday after the decent afternoon move I put my stop at 15.2 but then canceled it after seeing some aftermarket bids around there and I didn't want it to trigger. This morning there was a huge flush to 15 and I just thought "great.." but it was unreal how it just came back after that huge flush. This has definitely been a headache and it might even go higher but I think I got a good chunk of the move and I would be hating myself if I didn't sell at .50 and it just came back down from there.

CONN: This was a real eye opener for me. I thought this would be my biggest gainer yet and it turned out to be my worst. It had the perfect setup for a short squeeze. Huge short float (above 40%) and it didn't come down after a big move up but rather consolidated with higher lows towards a whole number. I saw the gap up this morning and move past 26 so I bought in at $26.12 and I gave it a wide stop at 25.48. It might have been too wide but I really believed in the chart. It spiked up more after my entry but then came right down. It didn't do much for the rest of the day. However, it is still making higher lows so I will definitely keep this on watch because I still believe this can have a huge short squeeze. I might buy some if the trend holds before it potentially breaks out. This experience has humbled me a bit though because as I said I thought this would be my biggest gain yet but it ended up being my biggest loser so far.

THRX: A small loss for me that probably shouldn't have happened. I saw that this stock was experiencing a huge squeeze on what looks like not spectacular earnings. However, I saw that it was holding trend this entire time and that dips were being bought up this whole time. Originally I only looked for a parabolic to short into but after it broke the support at .77 and started peaking there I decided to get short. However, it kept holding .68 and when it started to come back over .77 I took it off. I think this was a case of not wanting to miss out on a potential play even though I think I knew it wasn't a good trade. When I got in and after a few minutes I realized, there is not that much reward for even the small amount of risk. I'll keep this on watch though, I think this can fade nicely.

Lessons:

1. Don't think you know more than the market and always be humble. Don't assume a stock will be a huge gainer for you just right away.
2. Look at the big picture for trend and don't fight it just because you might miss a trade.

Trading Recap 2/17/2015

Today was my first full day trading on the Suretrader account thanks to the snow day. Not counting commissions I was up $37.00 and with commissions I think I am up just $7. I still have my HALO swing which I will talk about later.

HALO: There was news in the morning which caused the stock to spike up in the morning. I saw it when it was around 15.20 and going in line with what I said earlier about just letting it do its thing, I put it to the side as I was focusing on other stocks to day trade. Well, when I took a look at it again it I saw it came right to where I would have sold it and then came right back down. I was pretty miffed since I was up a decent amount at that stage and I didn't even know about it. I figured it might consolidate and then move back up. It dipped below 15 a couple of times but still held. Midday, it started coming back up but I was being patient. Towards the end of day, however, it slid below 15 and came within a penny of my stop before coming back. I would have been pretty pissed if I had gotten stopped out especially after being up a decent amount and not even knowing it. It closed back above the support although barely. However, I see some aftermarket prints in the 15.20s so it might gap up tomorrow. I will be watching it for any move back to today's highs.

Arrows are entries.

Day trades:

GLUU: I had this on my prior watchlist and decided to keep it because the daily looked decent. It formed a flag at the highs and I thought if it took the huge ask it could rip. I put a buy stop a few cents above the high of the day and got filled and it spiked a little before coming back and consolidating. I put my stop to almost breakeven and it just never did anything and eventually came back down to stop me out.

ARRY: I was being cautious with this because it had just made new highs. However, it had a good late day fade setup and I saw on the daily that there is usually some selling that occurs after making it's highs for the day. So, after support had cracked I started in short. It came back to retest support but it held as resistance. It never really did anything though and just hung around. I made a really small profit (not including commission) and had to sell due to having to be within 2:1 margin by 3:30 on Suretrader. I got filled right in time.

LOCO: This was a nice trade. I put in a buy stop above the day's highs because it was bull flagging and there was a huge ask. If it cleared, I know LOCO can spike quickly and that is what happened. It was a perfect parabola and when it started to curve, I put my stop right below the tip of the parabola to lock in all gains while also giving it the chance to rip more. It didn't rip more unfortunately but I got a nice profit out of it.

Tomorrow I am looking forward to GENE as there are now shorts available. If the opportunity comes, I plan to size in for the trade.

Things to work on:

1. Staying cool, calm, and collected throughout the day and during trades.
2. Always have current swing positions on a chart you can see (15min candles).
3. On stocks where you miss the initial, look for re-entry. An example of this is ROSG. I didn't even know about the it until after the initial move had happened. I am very averse to chasing, both long and short, however there are opportunities after the fact to go in and still make a good trade. An example is show below where it was retesting support and topping there which would have made for a nice short. I have seen this happen multiple times.

Trading Recap 2/13/15

I initiated my first real swing trade (besides the pennies I used to play) today. HALO's chart looks great for a breakout. I bought in at 14.78 so I am about flat as of the close. I have a stop at .45 for my 100 shares because I only want to risk $30 + commissions. This isn't really a logical spot (support/resistance), it just happens to be where it would go red on the day for today. I am looking to add another 100 shares if there is an opportunity to but only when I am green on the position. I am just letting it do its thing and not be bothered by the intraday gyrations as long as my stop isn't hit.

Other than that not much to report besides missing some trades like SGNL and just some other plays where I thought the r/r wasn't good for my small account but it would have worked anyway (FEYE/TWTR).

Things to work on:

1. No excuses - There is still a little hesitance to execute trades that you think will work in your favor. The reason I believe is that the account is just too small and the commissions make it tougher. Unfortunately, this is all I have so no excuses.

Trading Recap 2/11/15

Today I just took one trade but it was a loser, even though whatever I wanted to happen did happen.. just a bit later but only after I was stopped out. I also missed OPK at the top when I was eyeing it.

ZIOP: I saw it had broken to new highs but was looking for lower highs and the fade. When the first lower highs happened, I was a little late since the HOD was 9.93 and I filled at .75 but I thought it was setting up well and didn't want to be a bitch again and also partly didn't want to miss out on a play that I thought was good. It chopped around for a bit before hitting the prior low of .65 again and right after it hit it just spiked on me and continued to go up and break the downtrend line. I stopped out at .89 (my original plan was to stop at nHOD but I had a feeling this could still go so I just took it off) and it did come back a little to my entry for a higher low where I could have stopped out for flat if I waited but since this just broke out on a 52 wk timeframe I figured it was better to stop out. It then went to nHOD anyway so I would have stopped out anyway per my original plan but then it failed to break 10. It looked like it could go either way so I didn't want to just jump in but after the .85 line in the sand was broken I should have re-entered the trade but didn't. It then washed out the rest of the day...

I am not sure if there is anything to say about this trade. It just didn't work and I was right but just too early. The only thing is I should have reentered as I mentioned above. The only good thing is that even though I lost a little bit, I still took it and for me and my issues of transitioning from paper to real trading, that is a good thing.

Things to work on:

1. Look to reenter the trade if possible and if the setup allows it.

Trading Recap 2/9/15

When I got back from class there really wasn't much to trade. However, I saw some trades that would have worked nicely had I taken them. On these certain trades, I am not sure if I didn't take them because of not wanting to take perfect setups (although they were actually decent) or if I am still scared of using real money. Some setups I may have told myself they weren't good when in fact they had low risk/reward. I think what is honestly getting to me is the fact that I have a really small account and $5 commissions eat up profits quickly as seen on my ZIOP trade Friday. Because of that I may say "oh it has to be 100% perfect for me", but no trade is ever 100% and like I referenced to in my last blog, there is no confirmation until after the fact when by that time you have missed the move. I need to just take risks especially on double top/bottom plays where the risk is small since I know if the top or bottom is broken to stop out and evaluate again. At the end of the day, even when the SPY was in a narrow range for most of the day and there didn't seem to be much going on, there were still plays that I saw and were willing to take that would have profited me nicely but I didn't take. I have seen that again and again, so no more.

Some plays that would have worked:

DO: This just had earnings and relative to its usual range on the daily, today's candle was a big fat green one. Therefore, I started to look for the short. First I saw a late day fade setup which I was going to take but chickened out which may have been a good thing because it came back to the highs. However, it formed a nice double top with nice topping action. This I could have easily taken but did not. On a couple of hundred shares this would have been a great profit and would have wiped out any losses if I did take the late day fade.

OPK: Another double top on a very extended chart with seemingly fluff news. I should have taken this and even though I might not have held it o/n it would have been a great daytrade.

QRVO: I wasn't eyeing this as much but it would have worked. A clean downtrend break along with bottoming action near IPO price. A buy on the small channel break would have been nice.

The point of this post isn't to linger over shoulda, woulda, coulda. But rather to show myself that there are opportunities everyday in the market and if I want to grow my small account I have to be willing to take risks for a potentially bigger reward.

Things to work on:

1.Take the ultra-low setups like tops/bottoms where you know you are wrong quickly and can get out.
2. Stop being a bitch.

Trading Recap 2/6/2015

Yesterday was the first day in more than half a year that I have traded real money and it felt great. While after commissions I was mostly flat (up $3.48), I can't wait to apply myself to become more consistent and gradually increase my size. My suretrader account of $1500 was available Monday but I will be honest and say that I was scared of using actual money (even small size like 50-100 shares) coming from 6 months of paper trading. I told myself though that you have been studying hard leading up to the point that you would be able to use real money and so now is the time to put the hard work to use. It took about three days to get over the initial fear but now after doing two trades and missing more due to fear, I am ready to rock and roll. The funny part is once I was in the trade, I didn't feel anything more than what I did when I paper traded. I have a plan on my trades and bail quickly if it doesn't go my way.

The commissions suck (I was up $30.50 for the day but that became $3.48 w/ commissions) but suretrader is the only broker that will let me day trade and they have a nice short list as well on top of nice margin, which is a necessity for being able to grow small account sizes. On both trades that I took I used margin but only within my acceptable loss parameters ($50 or less). I will stay small on initial entries but will always look to size in to a winner.

Due to my class schedule, it is difficult to day trade the ideal times like the open. I used that as an excuse to not trade, but I will just have to suck it up and play the lull on stocks that have some volume still and trade around my schedule in preparation for the summer. The key is to not just trade any setup but only setups I feel comfortable with (late day fades, parabolics, ABCD, certain r/g setups, double top/bottom). I believe slowly but surely I can grind my way up and eventually take advantage of a big trade.

Without further ado, here are the two trades I took including my first ever real short, which was great.

TWTR: This was the first trade that I took. It was an ABCD pattern that looked good. I went in after the C pattern completed when the resistance broke. It dipped back a little right after but then it went up to the highs of the day. I was looking for it to make a nHOD and go to $49 for me to sell since that was the daily resistance and I have confidence in ABCD patterns. It went to the highs and then came down where I put my stop at 10 cents above my entry to almost breakeven on my trade including commissions. Well, it dipped down and hit my stop which sold me out but it never went to my initial entry of 48.10 and it then it went right back to the highs of 48.50 where it couldn't clear it. If I hadn't sold out by now I might have sold here when it couldn't get past it again, which would have been nice. The moral of this story is to just not let the commission enter your trade plan. In fact, when I sold out, I should have added on the higher low in anticipation of a bigger move even though that did not happen. Selling the first lower high on this ABCD would have gotten me more profit, so I will stick to that from now on. I was also looking at it for a short after it failed to clear 48.50 but I didn't take it, which would have also been a nice trade.

  

 ZIOP: My first real short. This was a nice late day fade setup into prior resistance. I should have been more proactive and shorted into strength near the resistance but I wanted that "confirmation" which is just fear. If it doesn't work out, no big deal, I always take small positions on entries and scale into winners. I entered after it cracked the support and it became resistance. I then added on a lower high along the way down. I was looking to cover into the low 8.50s which is the clear support but it never came. I put my stop at 66 which was above the resistance and it was holding higher lows so I wanted to be safe. It hit my stop and it spiked up to my original entry and settled back down to low 60s. The line was my guide for over/under which I then lowered to 66 as described above.

Things to work on:

1. Don't factor commissions into the trade plan.
2. There is no confirmation before the fact in trading, only probabilities. When you see a nice probabilistic setup in your favor, take it and if it doesn't work, well you tried and that is what counts. I would rather have tried and failed than not take it at all.

Watchlist for 2/4/2015

WWE: Swing above 12.69 (ABCD)

GENE: Short any pops - any para to 3.40 is ideal

GPRO: R/G or long if prior day's high hold as support

WEN: R/G or long if prior day's high hold as support

PSTR: Pops around mid 4s would be ideal

ZIOP: Reactive, will be cautious shorting

ARRY: Push to 8 and reject, will be cautious on this

MTSL: Any pops to short - 1.80/ 1.9 and 2.3 are key areas for parabolic/spikes

ADXS: Any pops to short
 
GURE: Double top was at 2.07

Others: KITE long/ TRUE long

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Probably will just watch (not a fan of the setup since I am currently not already short):

IMRS: Any pops to short

CRMD : Resistance at 3.24 - short there

Watchlist 2/3/15

VIP: R/G w/ PT of 4.30s-40s

COMM: Any parabolic to short into

MCO: Morning washout for the long

SSYS: Morning washout for long + SSR
      DDD, VJET possibilities as well

FCN: Washout for the long + SSR - PT to $38

FLWS: Using all time highs of 9.31 as a guide for the short

CRMD: Any parabolic or lower highs

GURE: Any parabolic or lower highs

ZIOP: Reactive

IMGN: Lower highs

Sectors to watch:

Energy if oil can't hold gains - look for shorts

Some ideas: FSLR, OAS