Friday was a small losing day but it is frustrating to think of what it could have been. Poor drawing of s/r lines and the thought process of taking charts too literally and trying bullshit trades led to small losses which should have been big wins had I just followed some simple techniques.
CAB: I somehow ended up down slightly on the longside on this even though I bought $57 in premarket... Yes, you heard me right. I bought it at $57 and it went to $59 eventually and throughout the day I ended up down on it. What ended up happening was I was long $57 due to a consolidation pattern and the fact that I thought the move was overdone to the downside as the acquisition was still happening, it just won't happen on the same schedule as before. I figured some funds would liquidate and some other would pick it up to give it a shot. With the consolidation, I also saw an aggressive bidder that kept refreshing. The thing was that I was afraid since it was premarket and the liquidity wasn't the greatest and I was remembering how NVDA was trading premkt when it had those random flushes. I guess it was a completely different scenario though but either way I put a stop that got hit and I got out for .20 profit. Of course it held a higher low and then at the open it started ramping towards $59. I'm not sure if I would have held on for the open, perhaps I could have put a breakeven stop or a stop below 56.95 which was the point I was risking off of in premarket. Anyway, it ramped to $59 and then started coming off. It came back down to $58 and there was another refreshing bidder. So I know I said that I wouldn't take any L2 trades but this was different. It was holding there for a while, it was at a premkt support level, and my thesis for it so far was holding up so overall I thought it was worth a shot to go long. I only gave it 10 cents below $58 because if he didn't hold up then I wanted to wait until I could get a better price at vwap or something else. Eventually he broke and I got stopped out. I wasn't really concerned about this though because like I said, there were a few things going for it and honestly had it worked I would have been pissed I didn't do more size so no big deal there. Later on it came back to some other support from premkt - which I should have outlined. I definitely have to get better at that even though it may not have hit where I would have placed my bid. After that it started to look like it wanted to go back up with some higher lows and almost an ABCD pattern. It tested towards that $58 level and I thought this was a case to use a breakout trade as it was an important level and it was low risk to see if the breakout would work or not plus everything else described. I should have used more size as well on this. It broke above $58 and started making its way back up. There was a seller in the $58.30ish range. I put my buy stop above there to add because I figured if it cleared that then it would have immediate followthrough. Well it cleared it and then started coming off. And then I decided that if it failed there then it was done for good so I put a breakeven stop and that got hit and then it ended up consolidating and then going higher without me. Afterwards, it retested the prior spot a few times on dips and while one dip went lower than the other, it still held the level as support so there is a lesson right there. So this is the story how I bought the lows premarket and still ended up being down on it. A lot of good lessons here: 1. Depending on the situation, premarket trades can be ok and you can stay with it if you have a cushion. 2. Outline more levels from premarket. These can play a role when you don't believe they will. 3. Don't take the chart literally and think "it has to happen right here and now". Stocks and therefore charts can do a number of things before it goes your way. Here, it broke out above that small level and then came off but the trend was still valid. I just had a horrible add. Had I just stuck with my breakout trade and then added on dips which it did do like I mentioned above, then it would have gone a lot smoother. Just trade off the s/r levels. I am making things a lot harder than they need to be.
NVDA: Definitely some missed opportunity on this and I completely misread it. Basically I was buying dips when I should have been shorting pops. At the open I was open to playing it either way because I wasn't sure if everybody got squeezed out or not. At the same time I have seen the big red candle with big volume as indicative as a top and although I was bullish the day before, now I wasn't sure if there were a bunch of shorts still in it. So I thought that I would let the chart tell me but I misread it due to some key mistakes. I incorrectly put just one level as a support/resistance line from a few days ago while it should have been a zone with a couple of lines (I know better). So I thought it was bouncing off support but actually it just hitting resistance and failing and against vwap as well. Instead of looking at the bigger picture of it hitting against resistance/vwap, I just looked at the little candles and said oh this looks like it is reclaiming support and has a higher low and it broke above the trendline. Where I bought was a perfect short! I realized my mistake and got out for a tiny loss but it's a couple of tiny losses too many. The lesson here is to just use overall support and resistance to base your trades off of and that is it.
Other stocks:
OPK: This was a complete miss as well. I had a feeling this would fade off on the news. The premarket resistance level was $10.09 and after it made the morning flush it got back up there. Now I was right to think that just because it flushed at the open, it doesn't mean that it won't be a good short later on. While it was up there I thought about shorting it but didn't because I thought it could go higher. This ended up being the top. It offered a spot again to short when it was under vwap but I was a bit too late with that although that would have worked. Lesson: Again just use s/r levels and take the trade over/under risk and that's it.
GDX: I didn't trade this either but this is a really, really prominent example of just using s/r levels and not worrying about the intraday patterns. This was going right into resistance but because it just broke out from a "flag" I decided to not try anything. 4 days up and running right into major resistance. So despite the apparent breakout - of course support/resistance played a big role especially when it's up 4 days up or so in a row. So that is the major lesson right there. Also, again going back to the premarket levels and knowing your levels more- while I charted the important levels from the hourly that gave me those huge resistance levels, I have to be better with charting premarket levels so that when I see it pop back to premarket levels I can make quick decisions and go in.
Things to work on:
1. Charting all levels better with the premarket and also with zones of s/r.
2. Know that s/r and the overall condition of the stock (4 days straight up as an ex.) is more important than a small pattern intraday.
3. Don't take the chart literally and think "it has to happen right here
and now". Stocks and therefore charts can do a number of things before
it goes your way.
4. SHORT AGAINST RESISTANCE AND BUY AT SUPPORT. THE END.... Unless in unusual times of volatility.
Saturday, December 31, 2016
Thursday, December 29, 2016
Trading Recap 12/29/16
Today was a decent green day. While it was green though, I have to be hard on myself for not really capitalizing on what was a prime setup and the stock acted exactly how I envisioned it would the day before. The bullshit trades that you do really don't just affect your pnl directly but also indirectly through the other trades that you are actually prepared for but you don't capitalize on them to the fullest extent. So no more bullshit trades and much more going long and short on dips and pops. Also, I have to be much more prepared for the stocks I want to trade with the key levels of inflection and also better levels that I know of (I am good at this but need to be better). Also, and I have said this before, but realizing anything can happen and just putting the trade on using just s/r is the best way to success I realize now and not just some random patterns (although of course at times they are useful). That is the only thing that is consistent through every trade - just putting on a trade based on support or resistance and giving it the proper room needed.
MBLY: I thought the news was pretty fluffy so I was short biased. I wasn't going to short it right at the open or anything thouugh, I wanted to see lower highs or something to short. It ended up having some decent volume/stuff at 37.30s so I shorted around there. I was in the money a bit as it got to vwap but my idea for it was to retest premkt lows. It started bouncing and I added on what I thought would be a lower high but that didn't work so I just got out for a tiny loss on the position. Then I tried it on some level 2 trade which of course didn't work as I saw it couldn't get past a certain level. I tried it one last time when it had a fake breakout and then came off and looked to have had a lower high afterwards. It was just chopping around and the more it sat there and didn't fade the more I didn't like it so I took it off for flat which was a good call as it ended up being an all day trender. It offered nice dips along the way up and was a nice breakout from the morning range once it got going. I took it off watch to focus on other stocks. Lessons: Don't anticipate highs/lows etc. No level 2 trades and no bullshit minute patterns. Just look at the chart and give it enough room. Of course, fake highs and low don't have to be it although at best you will be able to re-enter your position at a higher/lower price as they always pops/drop before going in the same direction again..
KATE: Kind of a bullshit pattern trade. Thought it had a fake breakout and came back under vwap and would fade back to 17. It just ended up chopping around until that big spike came. Lesson: Don't waste time with these trades.
IONS: Thought it looked weak for day 3 continuation. I wasn't paying too much attention to it so I missed some pops etc when it was first going lower. Eventually I got in and was looking for a fade to a big support area on the daily/hourly. It got close but then had a fake low so I moved my stop up and got hit. I ended up with a tiny gain on it. It got back to vwap and I thought it could break it because Adam F tweeted about it and it is definitely iffy when he tweets because it either causes the stock to drop or the crowd comes in and then it squeezes so I wanted to be careful on it in case it was the latter. When it started making some more lower highs I got back in thinking there would be no squeeze. It went a bit lower but not to my target and came back and started going higher so I got out again for a tiny win after it made another fakeish low. Then it just ended up trending lower for the rest of the day. Lesson: Overall trend for a stock is more important than fake lows/highs. Still be wary and either sell/cover after them and reenter your position.
LABU: Just had this on watch and saw a nice pattern after support became resistance and shorted it then. Covered too early although I looked for a potential spot where it could go to but it went past that. Sometimes you get a good cover price and sometimes you could have gotten a lot more. I guess cover half although I didn't have that many shares but it's whatever. Or just trail your stop.
NVDA: This was a big miss for me and is the stock I mentioned in the intro. I had the feeling it would washout, get shorts excited, then higher lows and then ramp. I tried going long in the morning but didn't give it enough room and was a bit early. However, once it started holding the important premkt levels then that was a good spot to get in. Once it got above vwap and perked were good adds. I tried going long at 106 due to a very convincing bid there. I know I shouldn't trade based on l2 but the l2 matched with what the chart was saying and it was a lot more convincing than other things. It worked this time as well ... but not before blipping lower a few pennies and not giving it enough room. So I missed a big trade by a cent or two.. Later on, I saw it consolidating and thought it was worth a breakout attempt on this as it was definitely punishing shorts and that trade worked up to r/g level. Later on, a good attempt at going long was where it dipped at premkt levels but I didn't have this level defined and wasn't paying too much attention. So that was a mistake. A bigger lesson is to not take the chart "literally". What I mean by that is I thought the stock was going to rollover because it had a lower high and then started to curl lower and looked like it was going to breakdown. Instead, it ripped in your face and started the next move higher. Overall, the trend was bullish and it was a spot to get long at a good support level. There is no "the stock is curling lower so it should do this" or etc. Just the major support/resistance levels - a stock doesn't have to do anything at that particular point and time - it can still do what you want but in a different fashion than what you think. Later on, I tried a couple of breakouts but they each failed so I lost and was flat on most of them. Had I just bought a dip and got a decent entry and held, I wouldn't have had to worry about anything even if it was with smaller size. Multiple lessons here: The stuff mentioned in the intro and giving things enough room and starting with smaller size and then adding in on confirmation.
Things to remember:
1. Stuff in the intro.
2. Small size and winning is better than nothing.
3. Overall trend for a stock is more important than fake lows/highs. Still be wary and either sell/cover after them and reenter your position.
4. Don't anticipate highs/lows etc. No level 2 trades and no bullshit minute patterns. Just look at the chart and give it enough room.
5. So no more bullshit trades and much more going long and short on dips and pops.
6. I have to be much more prepared for the stocks I want to trade with the key levels of inflection and also better levels that I know of (I am good at this but need to be better).
7. A bigger lesson is to not take the chart "literally". What I mean by that is I thought the stock was going to rollover because it had a lower high and then started to curl lower and looked like it was going to breakdown. There is no "the stock is curling lower so it should do this" or etc. Just the major support/resistance levels - a stock doesn't have to do anything at that particular point and time - it can still do what you want but in a different fashion than what you think.
MBLY: I thought the news was pretty fluffy so I was short biased. I wasn't going to short it right at the open or anything thouugh, I wanted to see lower highs or something to short. It ended up having some decent volume/stuff at 37.30s so I shorted around there. I was in the money a bit as it got to vwap but my idea for it was to retest premkt lows. It started bouncing and I added on what I thought would be a lower high but that didn't work so I just got out for a tiny loss on the position. Then I tried it on some level 2 trade which of course didn't work as I saw it couldn't get past a certain level. I tried it one last time when it had a fake breakout and then came off and looked to have had a lower high afterwards. It was just chopping around and the more it sat there and didn't fade the more I didn't like it so I took it off for flat which was a good call as it ended up being an all day trender. It offered nice dips along the way up and was a nice breakout from the morning range once it got going. I took it off watch to focus on other stocks. Lessons: Don't anticipate highs/lows etc. No level 2 trades and no bullshit minute patterns. Just look at the chart and give it enough room. Of course, fake highs and low don't have to be it although at best you will be able to re-enter your position at a higher/lower price as they always pops/drop before going in the same direction again..
KATE: Kind of a bullshit pattern trade. Thought it had a fake breakout and came back under vwap and would fade back to 17. It just ended up chopping around until that big spike came. Lesson: Don't waste time with these trades.
IONS: Thought it looked weak for day 3 continuation. I wasn't paying too much attention to it so I missed some pops etc when it was first going lower. Eventually I got in and was looking for a fade to a big support area on the daily/hourly. It got close but then had a fake low so I moved my stop up and got hit. I ended up with a tiny gain on it. It got back to vwap and I thought it could break it because Adam F tweeted about it and it is definitely iffy when he tweets because it either causes the stock to drop or the crowd comes in and then it squeezes so I wanted to be careful on it in case it was the latter. When it started making some more lower highs I got back in thinking there would be no squeeze. It went a bit lower but not to my target and came back and started going higher so I got out again for a tiny win after it made another fakeish low. Then it just ended up trending lower for the rest of the day. Lesson: Overall trend for a stock is more important than fake lows/highs. Still be wary and either sell/cover after them and reenter your position.
LABU: Just had this on watch and saw a nice pattern after support became resistance and shorted it then. Covered too early although I looked for a potential spot where it could go to but it went past that. Sometimes you get a good cover price and sometimes you could have gotten a lot more. I guess cover half although I didn't have that many shares but it's whatever. Or just trail your stop.
NVDA: This was a big miss for me and is the stock I mentioned in the intro. I had the feeling it would washout, get shorts excited, then higher lows and then ramp. I tried going long in the morning but didn't give it enough room and was a bit early. However, once it started holding the important premkt levels then that was a good spot to get in. Once it got above vwap and perked were good adds. I tried going long at 106 due to a very convincing bid there. I know I shouldn't trade based on l2 but the l2 matched with what the chart was saying and it was a lot more convincing than other things. It worked this time as well ... but not before blipping lower a few pennies and not giving it enough room. So I missed a big trade by a cent or two.. Later on, I saw it consolidating and thought it was worth a breakout attempt on this as it was definitely punishing shorts and that trade worked up to r/g level. Later on, a good attempt at going long was where it dipped at premkt levels but I didn't have this level defined and wasn't paying too much attention. So that was a mistake. A bigger lesson is to not take the chart "literally". What I mean by that is I thought the stock was going to rollover because it had a lower high and then started to curl lower and looked like it was going to breakdown. Instead, it ripped in your face and started the next move higher. Overall, the trend was bullish and it was a spot to get long at a good support level. There is no "the stock is curling lower so it should do this" or etc. Just the major support/resistance levels - a stock doesn't have to do anything at that particular point and time - it can still do what you want but in a different fashion than what you think. Later on, I tried a couple of breakouts but they each failed so I lost and was flat on most of them. Had I just bought a dip and got a decent entry and held, I wouldn't have had to worry about anything even if it was with smaller size. Multiple lessons here: The stuff mentioned in the intro and giving things enough room and starting with smaller size and then adding in on confirmation.
Things to remember:
1. Stuff in the intro.
2. Small size and winning is better than nothing.
3. Overall trend for a stock is more important than fake lows/highs. Still be wary and either sell/cover after them and reenter your position.
4. Don't anticipate highs/lows etc. No level 2 trades and no bullshit minute patterns. Just look at the chart and give it enough room.
5. So no more bullshit trades and much more going long and short on dips and pops.
6. I have to be much more prepared for the stocks I want to trade with the key levels of inflection and also better levels that I know of (I am good at this but need to be better).
7. A bigger lesson is to not take the chart "literally". What I mean by that is I thought the stock was going to rollover because it had a lower high and then started to curl lower and looked like it was going to breakdown. There is no "the stock is curling lower so it should do this" or etc. Just the major support/resistance levels - a stock doesn't have to do anything at that particular point and time - it can still do what you want but in a different fashion than what you think.
Wednesday, December 28, 2016
Trading Recap 12/28/16
Another losing day. It is really starting to feel like the summer of last year again, which I thought I never would get back to. I feel like I have regressed as a trader to be honest. I think it is all these bullshit trades. The little patterns I have seen before don't work unless it's a very high moving stock. So no more of those. From now on, unless it is high moving then the little candle patterns won't be traded. I have gotten too much into shorting breakdowns and buying breakouts and should go back to pops and dips like I first was in the beginning but with some of the nuanced experience I have learned. On a stock like NVDA today obviously it worked with shorting breakdowns and such and those are exceptions. Back when I had the ST acct I had to have a somewhat ok entry and I would never chase at all. I need to get back into that frame of mind - no more FOMO and making what should be a short at resistance trade a breakdown trade and chasing it. Also if you end up covering/selling too early don't be too hard on yourself as you never know what will happen.
LIVE: I knew this POS stock would go down but I kept trying bullshit trades on it and getting out for flat every time because it was a bullshit trade. Shorting at pops/vwap in the beginning would have been worth it. It got pumped up by chat rooms and I didn't short it then even though that was the most opportune moment to do it. I didn't have much conviction in it/ wasn't sure where it would top out despite the volume coming in. Honestly I'm not sure whether to chalk things up anymore to "anything can happen" and thus don't be too hard on yourself when you don't go in something because "it could have gone higher" etc. There wasn't too much of a clearly defined level from premkt otherwise I would have been more inclined to try it. Afterwards it had a somewhat decent pattern that I tried but I got out for flat. It would have worked had I didn't put a breakeven stop but my entry was bad and it was low vol so I didn't want to take any chances.
TSLA: Some other bullshit trades with little patterns that don't work. I tried a level 2 absorbing offer trade that I knew it wouldn't work but tried it anyway. Bad. I stopped trading it after I realized the move was done in the morning and it wasn't going to have any followthrough. Lesson: No bullshit trades. Honestly it shouldn't have been on my radar anyway for the most part since it has just been grinding up on the daily. If you caught it at the open it was a nice short but otherwise meh.
DUST: Looking at the GDX running right into resistance and then having a nice pattern for a move lower, I went long DUST on a breakout/after the pattern seemingly confirmed. But all I did was buy a fake breakout and I just got out when it started failing immediately. Not sure what to think about this trade since the pattern usually works but I think it may work in other scenarios better like a low float BS stock vs. GDX which has been breaking out overall on the higher timeframe from its small consolidation.
Other stocks:
NVDA: A complete miss on this but not for being afraid or anything. I really thought that after the Cintron report it would get very crowded short and it wouldn't fade as much as it did at all and might actually reverse but I guess not. I saw the vwap touch and thought about it but figured it was still stuck with a bunch of shorts who are patient and might still squeeze them out. I guess not. Not sure what to learn from this other than sometimes don't doubt the effects of Cintron...
IONS: I had this on watch for a potential 2nd day fade and it setup very nicely with a pop to vwap and then fade with lower highs which offered spots to add. I just didn't get in and I still don't know why. I guess I had low confidence and figured it wouldn't work. Stupid.
Things to remember:
1. Don't doubt a well-timed Cintron report.
2. No bullshit trades - pops and dips.
LIVE: I knew this POS stock would go down but I kept trying bullshit trades on it and getting out for flat every time because it was a bullshit trade. Shorting at pops/vwap in the beginning would have been worth it. It got pumped up by chat rooms and I didn't short it then even though that was the most opportune moment to do it. I didn't have much conviction in it/ wasn't sure where it would top out despite the volume coming in. Honestly I'm not sure whether to chalk things up anymore to "anything can happen" and thus don't be too hard on yourself when you don't go in something because "it could have gone higher" etc. There wasn't too much of a clearly defined level from premkt otherwise I would have been more inclined to try it. Afterwards it had a somewhat decent pattern that I tried but I got out for flat. It would have worked had I didn't put a breakeven stop but my entry was bad and it was low vol so I didn't want to take any chances.
TSLA: Some other bullshit trades with little patterns that don't work. I tried a level 2 absorbing offer trade that I knew it wouldn't work but tried it anyway. Bad. I stopped trading it after I realized the move was done in the morning and it wasn't going to have any followthrough. Lesson: No bullshit trades. Honestly it shouldn't have been on my radar anyway for the most part since it has just been grinding up on the daily. If you caught it at the open it was a nice short but otherwise meh.
DUST: Looking at the GDX running right into resistance and then having a nice pattern for a move lower, I went long DUST on a breakout/after the pattern seemingly confirmed. But all I did was buy a fake breakout and I just got out when it started failing immediately. Not sure what to think about this trade since the pattern usually works but I think it may work in other scenarios better like a low float BS stock vs. GDX which has been breaking out overall on the higher timeframe from its small consolidation.
Other stocks:
NVDA: A complete miss on this but not for being afraid or anything. I really thought that after the Cintron report it would get very crowded short and it wouldn't fade as much as it did at all and might actually reverse but I guess not. I saw the vwap touch and thought about it but figured it was still stuck with a bunch of shorts who are patient and might still squeeze them out. I guess not. Not sure what to learn from this other than sometimes don't doubt the effects of Cintron...
IONS: I had this on watch for a potential 2nd day fade and it setup very nicely with a pop to vwap and then fade with lower highs which offered spots to add. I just didn't get in and I still don't know why. I guess I had low confidence and figured it wouldn't work. Stupid.
Things to remember:
1. Don't doubt a well-timed Cintron report.
2. No bullshit trades - pops and dips.
Tuesday, December 27, 2016
Trading Recap 12/27/16
Unfortunately today I gave back all of Friday's gains and a little more. I can't really say it was due to really bad trades overall. A lot of things didn't go my way like not getting my borrow in time when I wanted to short something which would have worked really well and then something really odd happening in BAS that was the perfect storm to fuck me over after my stop didn't get triggered. On the way back home I was trying to think about what my strengths are and how I can only trade setups that fit my strengths. The thing is I'm not really sure what my strengths and weaknesses are. I know my strengths have to do with patterns and such but there has to be more to it than that. I will keep thinking about this more as time goes on.
SGEN: I saw the news about the patient deaths and while I was initially short biased, I remember that this type of news is what a lot of shorts go after and it can become crowded. So I was cautiously long biased at the open. I didn't trade it until I saw a potential breakout area as I wasn't too confident in buying any dips. I had a wider stop initially for the breakout but as it was hovering around there I moved it up as I didn't want to get caught in anything unnecessary in terms of stopping out. It was going to work soon enough or it was probably a fakeout. It ended up being a fakeout so my moved up stop helped me as I realized what it was. When I saw it had failed I became more short biased and was hoping for it to retest 54.50ish for a short but it never got right to that level and faded off after making a lower high. Once it was under vwap I thought about shorting it at vwap/resistance but never did. The reason I guess for this was because it wasn't a particular "pattern". I guess at this point it was more evident that it wasn't squeezing or anything and was more likely to fade so any shorts at good resistance spots would be good. It ended up consolidating under vwap and I thought about it then too but didn't for some reason. That ended up working and then the pops to the new resistance area were also good shorts as well. The breakout didn't look too good on the 5min and was definitely chasing over there. On the 3min it looked like it consolidated a bit more. Other than that, I have to get back into shorting pops and long dips more often vs. breakout/breakdowns as I have mentioned in the past.
BAS: What a stock... I was mainly short biased on this as I thought it could fade because it is still a shitty company. I saw some pattern/offer stepping down a lot so I got in but then for some reason got stopped out when my price never triggered. This would have ended up being a big win for me. Later on I tried it when it rebounded and the offer was absorbing after it stuffed through it before and it was at resistance, so a few things checked off for this trade. The only thing was the bids were absorbing on the way up so I wasn't too sure but I figured more boxes were checked for it to work than not. It didn't work so I got out for a small loss. Later on is where the trouble happened. I tried it again after it dropped from vwap a couple of times had a nice pattern of lower highs. I thought I could get $1 scalp off of it for the most part. I waited until it wicked through the whole number/resistance area and shorted with a stop above the whole. I did this because there was a potential pattern there for that to give it a tight stop. What ended up happening was a once in a lifetime sort of thing where it broke the whole but didn't reach my .05 stop. It just kind of broke it and then came back under it so I thought I was good and then it broke it again, almost hit my stop but didn't and then the bids and offers just jumped up randomly and never got me out because it was above my stop. Then it started climbing so I panic covered/just got out since it was way past my stop. It ended up coming back down and then doing exactly what I thought it would. This was a very weird stock overall and extremely thin so I won't draw any conclusions other than you don't know what will happen so sometimes a tight stop vs. over/under can screw you. Had I risk to over/under I would have stayed in most likely but that is hindsight.
NVDA: Tried a small short with a tight potential stop when I saw volume increased a bit and it hovered around. I thought I could get at least a scalp out of it but I stopped out quickly. Like I say, anything can work but it was probably a bullshit trade. The volume wasn't that great and it was just grinding.
IONS: I was more short biased on this since I have seen a lot of FDA approvals get faded and the news was better for BIIB than IONS if I read it correctly. I didn't trade it out of the gate but I did try it when I thought it had a fake breakout but upped my stop quickly and got out when I realized it wasn't a good entry. It went a bit higher first before coming back down. I tried shorting it under $55 when it broke thinking that it could fade the rest of the day or at least to the high 53s. When I saw it consolidate under $55 I added in and then moved my stop to flat. It made a new low by a few pennies and that was it. I got out for essentially flat. When it reclaimed I was thinking of going long for vwap which would have worked but it might have stopped me out as it went a bit lower first before rebounding.
Things to remember:
1. No bullshit trades - they take emotional capital from you that you need for the better trades where you can scale in.
2. Dips and pops..
SGEN: I saw the news about the patient deaths and while I was initially short biased, I remember that this type of news is what a lot of shorts go after and it can become crowded. So I was cautiously long biased at the open. I didn't trade it until I saw a potential breakout area as I wasn't too confident in buying any dips. I had a wider stop initially for the breakout but as it was hovering around there I moved it up as I didn't want to get caught in anything unnecessary in terms of stopping out. It was going to work soon enough or it was probably a fakeout. It ended up being a fakeout so my moved up stop helped me as I realized what it was. When I saw it had failed I became more short biased and was hoping for it to retest 54.50ish for a short but it never got right to that level and faded off after making a lower high. Once it was under vwap I thought about shorting it at vwap/resistance but never did. The reason I guess for this was because it wasn't a particular "pattern". I guess at this point it was more evident that it wasn't squeezing or anything and was more likely to fade so any shorts at good resistance spots would be good. It ended up consolidating under vwap and I thought about it then too but didn't for some reason. That ended up working and then the pops to the new resistance area were also good shorts as well. The breakout didn't look too good on the 5min and was definitely chasing over there. On the 3min it looked like it consolidated a bit more. Other than that, I have to get back into shorting pops and long dips more often vs. breakout/breakdowns as I have mentioned in the past.
BAS: What a stock... I was mainly short biased on this as I thought it could fade because it is still a shitty company. I saw some pattern/offer stepping down a lot so I got in but then for some reason got stopped out when my price never triggered. This would have ended up being a big win for me. Later on I tried it when it rebounded and the offer was absorbing after it stuffed through it before and it was at resistance, so a few things checked off for this trade. The only thing was the bids were absorbing on the way up so I wasn't too sure but I figured more boxes were checked for it to work than not. It didn't work so I got out for a small loss. Later on is where the trouble happened. I tried it again after it dropped from vwap a couple of times had a nice pattern of lower highs. I thought I could get $1 scalp off of it for the most part. I waited until it wicked through the whole number/resistance area and shorted with a stop above the whole. I did this because there was a potential pattern there for that to give it a tight stop. What ended up happening was a once in a lifetime sort of thing where it broke the whole but didn't reach my .05 stop. It just kind of broke it and then came back under it so I thought I was good and then it broke it again, almost hit my stop but didn't and then the bids and offers just jumped up randomly and never got me out because it was above my stop. Then it started climbing so I panic covered/just got out since it was way past my stop. It ended up coming back down and then doing exactly what I thought it would. This was a very weird stock overall and extremely thin so I won't draw any conclusions other than you don't know what will happen so sometimes a tight stop vs. over/under can screw you. Had I risk to over/under I would have stayed in most likely but that is hindsight.
NVDA: Tried a small short with a tight potential stop when I saw volume increased a bit and it hovered around. I thought I could get at least a scalp out of it but I stopped out quickly. Like I say, anything can work but it was probably a bullshit trade. The volume wasn't that great and it was just grinding.
IONS: I was more short biased on this since I have seen a lot of FDA approvals get faded and the news was better for BIIB than IONS if I read it correctly. I didn't trade it out of the gate but I did try it when I thought it had a fake breakout but upped my stop quickly and got out when I realized it wasn't a good entry. It went a bit higher first before coming back down. I tried shorting it under $55 when it broke thinking that it could fade the rest of the day or at least to the high 53s. When I saw it consolidate under $55 I added in and then moved my stop to flat. It made a new low by a few pennies and that was it. I got out for essentially flat. When it reclaimed I was thinking of going long for vwap which would have worked but it might have stopped me out as it went a bit lower first before rebounding.
Things to remember:
1. No bullshit trades - they take emotional capital from you that you need for the better trades where you can scale in.
2. Dips and pops..
Monday, December 26, 2016
Trade Recap 12/23/16
Somehow Friday was the best day of the week by far for me and actually a solid green day. But the reason why it was a good day is not a mystery to me, I believe. The reason I did well was because I only took the setups that I was very confident in and focused on my strengths - which I believe I am starting to realize and take seriously is just taking certain patterns I have seen time and time again that work well that have a high probability of working. Going forward I will try and do a lot more of just reacting instead of predicting where to get in and when. The chart, by having some sort of pattern I recognize as high probability in the right scenario, will provide me with the right info.
CTAS: I wasn't sure which way this stock would go. I thought the earnings were meh, especially with their margins going down 10%. So I had a short bias and saw from prior earnings dates that it does have nice range on earnings days and usually picks a direction for the day. At the open it started to flush lower and I thought about shorting a whole number breakdown but I said no more level 2 bullshit and that ended up being a good call as it wicked up and down in the first few minutes. Eventually, it held under vwap and consolidated. I wasn't really sure about shorting this although it was worth a shot I suppose. It wasn't really anything I liked and ideally I wanted a push higher to 119 where there was a lot of resistance but it didn't get there. It started to come off from vwap and go a bit lower but I didn't see a setup yet. The only thing was possibly when it was at vwap but I didn't have enough conviction in the earnings to go for it here. Using the 5min candles though I did see somewhat of a decent pattern so I got in and it started going in my direction. I was hesitant to go in because the prior candle had big washout volume but I figured the pattern was good and of course it can go lower despite the volume. It was going well but it made a new low by a penny and started coming back up so I moved my stop up in case that move was it. It got me out for a slight profit but then came back off and made a new low. Of course as I have said before that the new penny lows don't have to be it but I wanted to make sure to lock it in, in case. It did end up going a bit lower and that ended up being the bottom and it started rebounding and then headed higher the rest of the day for the most part. The washout volume signaled the selling was reaching capitulation and thus even though it went lower afterwards, it wasn't by a lot and that ended up being the low. Looking back, the 3 + 5 min candles offered a nice setup that I should have seen at the time when it was at vwap and the real move happened. Also, a friend shorted it on the rebound but I had a feeling it wouldn't have worked because it looked like a reclaim of support setup but I didn't take it long because it wasn't the cleanest and I was still overall bearish on it but it did end up going higher and rebounding. Lessons: Use the 3+5 min candles even at the open for your sort of setups.
LMT: I had this on watch after the Trump tweet and figured it would do a similar thing like last time, which is rebound back to r/g. I had it on watch for it to potentially go and washout below the premarket low and then rebound. It popped at the open and then faded off. It had decent selling volume on the 3 + 5 min charts. I still was looking for it to washout a bit more but it never did. It stopped at $247. I was looking at a record of the tape at that time and I couldn't see anything that would signal to me that, that was the bottom other than the volume which piqued my interest. A couple of minutes later it sprayed down to the $247 level again as well and was quickly bought back up so that was a potential sign there but I didn't really focus on it too much. This ended up being the lows for the day. Looking back at the 3min, it did offer a nice pattern with a potential tight risk and it ended up working well from there. Where I eventually did get in was on a nice pattern breakout on the 3 + 5 min charts and I rode that up and then added when it setup again with a consolidation. I had an offer at r/g but it never got there. Instead, I figured that this was either going straight up into r/g or it was just going to peter off at some point so I kept raising my stop and eventually I got hit. This ended up being near the top which was nice of course. I was out at the time but it did offer a nice fade to vwap with lower high pattern as well. Lesson: Keep the 3+5min charts on at all times. Wait for the stock to tell you what it wants to do.
TWLO: This was my only slight loser at EOD for me. Normally I wouldn't have done anything at this time due to the volume but I have seen TWLO trade and it has really nice patterns and fades at times. The stock was sold off after the news about the AMZN partnership so I thought it was overall a weak stock. I didn't really have it on my radar until I was looking through charts at EOD. It had a very nice setup for a fade so I shorted it thinking maybe we get some EOD selling. It went lower and touched r/g so I put my stop at b/e thinking if it was going to go then it would just keep fading but it just got bought back up on volume and stopped me out for flat. This should have been a warning sign that it wasn't going to work and with the low volume pre-holiday day being almost done it was tough to short anything with no sellers I guess. When it started coming back off again I tried it again but it just stopped going down and then started reversing and I had a tight stop so I got taken out and that was it. It ended up reclaiming support and just went higher. I don't regret taking the trade, it definitely looked good. It was sort of a do or die moment for it so a breakeven stop once it starts working is appropriate. The only thing to note is my psychology during this trade. I was very outcome dependent during this trade. I didn't want to give back any gains from the day before since I had a rough past couple of days earlier in the week. It came down to having bigger size than I really accepted the risk for. I wanted to risk X but had 2X the risk. Part of it is because as I said before TWLO had such fades before with really nice patterns so when I saw one I wanted to capitalize on it. That part is ok but if that is the case then I have to accept the risk and know that, that money is already gone from my account. Be content with the outcome no matter what. No expectations.
Other stocks:
PTLA: Didn't trade this at all but wanted to note how of course with big volume, things can still go higher or lower. I avoided taking a breakout trade because it had big volume going into it making me think the buying power was waning. I don't think it is a big deal to not have taken the trade. I think I would have been more disappointed in myself if I got greedy thinking I would hit it big on this trade and it not working than not taking it for legit concerns about it. Process > outcome so despite it working and the stock went higher, I think my analysis at the time and my thoughts about were in legitimate.
Things to remember:
1. Volume exhaustion on either side can be accompanied by continued price action for a bit more in that direction before it reversed.
2. Use 3 +5 min candles as they look different to you and thus provide different patterns and opportunities. That may be your edge and strength - being a highly visual person.
3. I have to accept the risk and know that, that money is already gone from my account. Be content with the outcome no matter what. No expectations.
CTAS: I wasn't sure which way this stock would go. I thought the earnings were meh, especially with their margins going down 10%. So I had a short bias and saw from prior earnings dates that it does have nice range on earnings days and usually picks a direction for the day. At the open it started to flush lower and I thought about shorting a whole number breakdown but I said no more level 2 bullshit and that ended up being a good call as it wicked up and down in the first few minutes. Eventually, it held under vwap and consolidated. I wasn't really sure about shorting this although it was worth a shot I suppose. It wasn't really anything I liked and ideally I wanted a push higher to 119 where there was a lot of resistance but it didn't get there. It started to come off from vwap and go a bit lower but I didn't see a setup yet. The only thing was possibly when it was at vwap but I didn't have enough conviction in the earnings to go for it here. Using the 5min candles though I did see somewhat of a decent pattern so I got in and it started going in my direction. I was hesitant to go in because the prior candle had big washout volume but I figured the pattern was good and of course it can go lower despite the volume. It was going well but it made a new low by a penny and started coming back up so I moved my stop up in case that move was it. It got me out for a slight profit but then came back off and made a new low. Of course as I have said before that the new penny lows don't have to be it but I wanted to make sure to lock it in, in case. It did end up going a bit lower and that ended up being the bottom and it started rebounding and then headed higher the rest of the day for the most part. The washout volume signaled the selling was reaching capitulation and thus even though it went lower afterwards, it wasn't by a lot and that ended up being the low. Looking back, the 3 + 5 min candles offered a nice setup that I should have seen at the time when it was at vwap and the real move happened. Also, a friend shorted it on the rebound but I had a feeling it wouldn't have worked because it looked like a reclaim of support setup but I didn't take it long because it wasn't the cleanest and I was still overall bearish on it but it did end up going higher and rebounding. Lessons: Use the 3+5 min candles even at the open for your sort of setups.
LMT: I had this on watch after the Trump tweet and figured it would do a similar thing like last time, which is rebound back to r/g. I had it on watch for it to potentially go and washout below the premarket low and then rebound. It popped at the open and then faded off. It had decent selling volume on the 3 + 5 min charts. I still was looking for it to washout a bit more but it never did. It stopped at $247. I was looking at a record of the tape at that time and I couldn't see anything that would signal to me that, that was the bottom other than the volume which piqued my interest. A couple of minutes later it sprayed down to the $247 level again as well and was quickly bought back up so that was a potential sign there but I didn't really focus on it too much. This ended up being the lows for the day. Looking back at the 3min, it did offer a nice pattern with a potential tight risk and it ended up working well from there. Where I eventually did get in was on a nice pattern breakout on the 3 + 5 min charts and I rode that up and then added when it setup again with a consolidation. I had an offer at r/g but it never got there. Instead, I figured that this was either going straight up into r/g or it was just going to peter off at some point so I kept raising my stop and eventually I got hit. This ended up being near the top which was nice of course. I was out at the time but it did offer a nice fade to vwap with lower high pattern as well. Lesson: Keep the 3+5min charts on at all times. Wait for the stock to tell you what it wants to do.
TWLO: This was my only slight loser at EOD for me. Normally I wouldn't have done anything at this time due to the volume but I have seen TWLO trade and it has really nice patterns and fades at times. The stock was sold off after the news about the AMZN partnership so I thought it was overall a weak stock. I didn't really have it on my radar until I was looking through charts at EOD. It had a very nice setup for a fade so I shorted it thinking maybe we get some EOD selling. It went lower and touched r/g so I put my stop at b/e thinking if it was going to go then it would just keep fading but it just got bought back up on volume and stopped me out for flat. This should have been a warning sign that it wasn't going to work and with the low volume pre-holiday day being almost done it was tough to short anything with no sellers I guess. When it started coming back off again I tried it again but it just stopped going down and then started reversing and I had a tight stop so I got taken out and that was it. It ended up reclaiming support and just went higher. I don't regret taking the trade, it definitely looked good. It was sort of a do or die moment for it so a breakeven stop once it starts working is appropriate. The only thing to note is my psychology during this trade. I was very outcome dependent during this trade. I didn't want to give back any gains from the day before since I had a rough past couple of days earlier in the week. It came down to having bigger size than I really accepted the risk for. I wanted to risk X but had 2X the risk. Part of it is because as I said before TWLO had such fades before with really nice patterns so when I saw one I wanted to capitalize on it. That part is ok but if that is the case then I have to accept the risk and know that, that money is already gone from my account. Be content with the outcome no matter what. No expectations.
Other stocks:
PTLA: Didn't trade this at all but wanted to note how of course with big volume, things can still go higher or lower. I avoided taking a breakout trade because it had big volume going into it making me think the buying power was waning. I don't think it is a big deal to not have taken the trade. I think I would have been more disappointed in myself if I got greedy thinking I would hit it big on this trade and it not working than not taking it for legit concerns about it. Process > outcome so despite it working and the stock went higher, I think my analysis at the time and my thoughts about were in legitimate.
Things to remember:
1. Volume exhaustion on either side can be accompanied by continued price action for a bit more in that direction before it reversed.
2. Use 3 +5 min candles as they look different to you and thus provide different patterns and opportunities. That may be your edge and strength - being a highly visual person.
3. I have to accept the risk and know that, that money is already gone from my account. Be content with the outcome no matter what. No expectations.
Thursday, December 22, 2016
Trading Recap 12/22/16
Surprisingly I traded a lot today. I ended up essentially flat to a slight profit. I saw some decent opportunities today despite the holidays. I did have the chance to make a very good day happen but my breakeven stop took me out at the bottom of a play when I had some decent size with low risk so that is definitely a negative in the breakeven stop column. The losers I had I was eventually right on (just poor timing/too early) - how familiar..
WTW: I was going to be careful with this because I know most of the float is short this (and for good reason). But I thought it was a total pump job and was still interested in shorting it if it setup. It had some nice volume near $12 and then had a fake high wick by one penny with no followthrough. I thought this might be a good opportunity. I got in at a good price and it ended up coming off by 20 cents or so, so it looked good. But then it started to curl back up and I contemplated getting out for flat but decided against it as I thought it was still a good pattern with the overall thesis being that chasers would bail assuming there weren't that many shorts. But it did end up breaking $12 so I stopped out. The only other time that interested me was at $12.50 on the big volume and another fake high. I thought about getting back in and also put in another offer but never got filled. I thought that it would definitely at least fill $12.50's offer and then possibly coming back down but it never got past it. As I said in a prior post, I have to remember to not confuse a "legit" stock like this vs. a total diluting pig with all the tricks. I thought about shorting a breakdown when it was still above vwap but thought I would get screwed by doing that since this stock likes to do that. It also had support right near it so I didn't think it was a good candidate for that although it did end up working. I didn't trade it later in the day although I did think about shorting it at vwap which would have worked. Another thing to note is that it wicked through support and got bought back up and then looked like it was going to reclaim that level. But when it started perking, it never cleared that resistance and started coming back off again and eventually fading even more which goes to show that anything can happen of course. Lessons: First trade was a valid attempt although I had a feeling it would go higher first before coming back off but it was worth a shot. As for the $12.50s trade, remember that anything can happen and if something should go higher and break through a level but doesn't then that is a warning sign.
GPRO: I saw that this was going up on takeover chatter which was complete BS and I knew it. It had some very nice volume exhaustion in the 9.30s so I gave that a shot but stopped out as it went higher. That was the extent of my trade in it but what I should have done is look at the hourly/daily to see where it has real resistance and I would have noticed a similar spike last week on similar news and it went to 9.60 which just so happens to be the same spot this topped out at and also had huge volume as well. Someone wants out of course at those prices. Had I seen that I would have waited. This reminds me of CXW with the exact same scenario of being too early but eventually being right on it. So the lesson here is to look up what it did in the recent past in terms of news on longer term charts.
FDX: This was the big screwup for the day. I saw it had a decent looking inverted H&S and it fit the bill of one of the patterns I have noticed before. I got in with 5 cent risk and had 100 shares. It started moving up but I thought to myself this is a stupid trade so I just put a breakeven stop. After the prior couple of days I knew how little paper cuts add up so I didn't want to lose even $5 on this trade so I just put that breakeven stop thinking that if it was going to work then it would work right away and it did work right away pretty much but not without stopping me out at the bottom of a wick and then going higher completely past any expectation I had of it. So the lesson there is I guess not to discount anything. I still need more data to determine whether breakeven stops are good or bad for my style but this one definitely stings. Also, I saw a nice rejection pattern once it made new highs and came off but didn't short it due to low volume but it wasn't so bad and it's a large cap stock so it shouldn't be an issue. It worked out fantastic and later in the day it also provided a very nice opportunity so don't let less than stellar volume dissuade you.
FINL: I tried this a couple of times but realized my entries were poor both times so got out for flat essentially on each try. This was similar to the ACAD trade from yesterday where there was too much support from the day before where I was shorting hoping it would fade off for it to work. I mean it could have definitely worked but where I shorted was definitely a chase and it should have worked immediately so I just got out when I thought it was a trap which it did end up being. By the end of the day though it did fade close to where my target was. Overall, this was a sketchy one to trade.
BBBY: I thought this could fade but it didn't provide an entry that I liked and the fact that it made such a large move in the morning I thought it was done fading as I have seen with other stocks. I thought about shorting it at vwap but decided against it as again I thought the move was over with. I probably would have stopped out although in the end it did work and fade even more. If it got back to $42 I might have tried it but otherwise I really thought that was it. Later on though it did provide a very nice pattern of just peaking at the prior support. But for some reason I saw it as reclaiming support so went long but ended up getting stopped out. This was a stupid trade and definitely was not as clean as FDX was for example. This was a very clean short setup though and it shows because it worked great.
RHT: I had this on bounce watch as I thought it was way overdone. I wanted to let it puke out first or have some higher lows or start holding above some premarket support before I went in. It faded right off the bat and then eventually had a very nice bottoming wick which I didn't go long for unfortunately but definitely saw the opportunity. I didn't bother buying any dips or anything as it seemed weak until it setup nicely for a breakout which I did go long for. I ended up selling way too early though because I was afraid it would come right back down and get me out for flat which seemed to be the case lately. But this was a mistake overall as the pattern was good and I thought it could bounce. I was going to sell it at 70.95 which ended up being the HOD so that would have been nice. After it started coming back off though it looked like a failed breakout because it got back under the prior breakout level and seemed to be holding. I thought about shorting but wasn't really sure as it wasn't too clean since there were a couple of resistance spots but overall, it did fade back down. One thing to also note is at the end of the day it formed a base at $69 and went below it by a penny so it got some shorts trapped but it only pushed up a bit and then came back down. This is a good pattern to short with a tight stop as I have seen this before where it does this but it doesn't have any juice left to squeeze the chasers further and then it settles back down and really cracks it. It is better to be short beforehand though and take the leap of faith if it sets up. This stock was a good example of switching biases based on the price action.
MU: I was originally long biased but I saw everyone kept being bullish on it so that made me weary. If it washed out more at the open I would have taken a shot but it didn't go far enough down. I didn't really see a trade in it on the long side. On the short side though it made a nice lower high and what got me interested was it wicked above the support and came all the way back down and got rejected nicely so I immediately shorted right afterwards and was in the money right away. I ended up covering too soon it seemed although I followed my plan to just scalp it since overall it was bullish. It did end up coming back later in the day. I just didn't expect it to come down a lot further. Overall great trade and good process.
BABA: I was short biased out of the gate but didn't see a great spot to get in short for the morning flush. It bounced back and then had some lower highs and then came back under vwap and had a nice pattern. I got short. It did consolidate for a while and it at times got me thinking I made the wrong move and I thought about taking it off for breakeven but was confident in it and it ended up working well. It didn't go as far down as I had hoped but it was a decent trade nonetheless. I guess there are psychological lessons here to be learned although I have already discussed everything involved.
Things to remember:
1. Fake highs/lows don't have to be it for the day. It can just be it for a bit before it regroups and heads back higher or lower.
2. Don't confuse what happens in one stock with another.
3. Diluting plays are different from legit stocks that happen to have big offers and bids.
4. When you see a big offer and the stock rams right into it without filling then that is a good sign for a top.
5. Look up what it did in the recent past in terms of news on longer term charts.
6. Don't discount anything and also don't let lowish volume affect you.
7. Look more closely for the patterns to make sure you are getting them right.
8. When a stock guns stops but then comes right back then go long/short.
WTW: I was going to be careful with this because I know most of the float is short this (and for good reason). But I thought it was a total pump job and was still interested in shorting it if it setup. It had some nice volume near $12 and then had a fake high wick by one penny with no followthrough. I thought this might be a good opportunity. I got in at a good price and it ended up coming off by 20 cents or so, so it looked good. But then it started to curl back up and I contemplated getting out for flat but decided against it as I thought it was still a good pattern with the overall thesis being that chasers would bail assuming there weren't that many shorts. But it did end up breaking $12 so I stopped out. The only other time that interested me was at $12.50 on the big volume and another fake high. I thought about getting back in and also put in another offer but never got filled. I thought that it would definitely at least fill $12.50's offer and then possibly coming back down but it never got past it. As I said in a prior post, I have to remember to not confuse a "legit" stock like this vs. a total diluting pig with all the tricks. I thought about shorting a breakdown when it was still above vwap but thought I would get screwed by doing that since this stock likes to do that. It also had support right near it so I didn't think it was a good candidate for that although it did end up working. I didn't trade it later in the day although I did think about shorting it at vwap which would have worked. Another thing to note is that it wicked through support and got bought back up and then looked like it was going to reclaim that level. But when it started perking, it never cleared that resistance and started coming back off again and eventually fading even more which goes to show that anything can happen of course. Lessons: First trade was a valid attempt although I had a feeling it would go higher first before coming back off but it was worth a shot. As for the $12.50s trade, remember that anything can happen and if something should go higher and break through a level but doesn't then that is a warning sign.
GPRO: I saw that this was going up on takeover chatter which was complete BS and I knew it. It had some very nice volume exhaustion in the 9.30s so I gave that a shot but stopped out as it went higher. That was the extent of my trade in it but what I should have done is look at the hourly/daily to see where it has real resistance and I would have noticed a similar spike last week on similar news and it went to 9.60 which just so happens to be the same spot this topped out at and also had huge volume as well. Someone wants out of course at those prices. Had I seen that I would have waited. This reminds me of CXW with the exact same scenario of being too early but eventually being right on it. So the lesson here is to look up what it did in the recent past in terms of news on longer term charts.
FDX: This was the big screwup for the day. I saw it had a decent looking inverted H&S and it fit the bill of one of the patterns I have noticed before. I got in with 5 cent risk and had 100 shares. It started moving up but I thought to myself this is a stupid trade so I just put a breakeven stop. After the prior couple of days I knew how little paper cuts add up so I didn't want to lose even $5 on this trade so I just put that breakeven stop thinking that if it was going to work then it would work right away and it did work right away pretty much but not without stopping me out at the bottom of a wick and then going higher completely past any expectation I had of it. So the lesson there is I guess not to discount anything. I still need more data to determine whether breakeven stops are good or bad for my style but this one definitely stings. Also, I saw a nice rejection pattern once it made new highs and came off but didn't short it due to low volume but it wasn't so bad and it's a large cap stock so it shouldn't be an issue. It worked out fantastic and later in the day it also provided a very nice opportunity so don't let less than stellar volume dissuade you.
FINL: I tried this a couple of times but realized my entries were poor both times so got out for flat essentially on each try. This was similar to the ACAD trade from yesterday where there was too much support from the day before where I was shorting hoping it would fade off for it to work. I mean it could have definitely worked but where I shorted was definitely a chase and it should have worked immediately so I just got out when I thought it was a trap which it did end up being. By the end of the day though it did fade close to where my target was. Overall, this was a sketchy one to trade.
BBBY: I thought this could fade but it didn't provide an entry that I liked and the fact that it made such a large move in the morning I thought it was done fading as I have seen with other stocks. I thought about shorting it at vwap but decided against it as again I thought the move was over with. I probably would have stopped out although in the end it did work and fade even more. If it got back to $42 I might have tried it but otherwise I really thought that was it. Later on though it did provide a very nice pattern of just peaking at the prior support. But for some reason I saw it as reclaiming support so went long but ended up getting stopped out. This was a stupid trade and definitely was not as clean as FDX was for example. This was a very clean short setup though and it shows because it worked great.
RHT: I had this on bounce watch as I thought it was way overdone. I wanted to let it puke out first or have some higher lows or start holding above some premarket support before I went in. It faded right off the bat and then eventually had a very nice bottoming wick which I didn't go long for unfortunately but definitely saw the opportunity. I didn't bother buying any dips or anything as it seemed weak until it setup nicely for a breakout which I did go long for. I ended up selling way too early though because I was afraid it would come right back down and get me out for flat which seemed to be the case lately. But this was a mistake overall as the pattern was good and I thought it could bounce. I was going to sell it at 70.95 which ended up being the HOD so that would have been nice. After it started coming back off though it looked like a failed breakout because it got back under the prior breakout level and seemed to be holding. I thought about shorting but wasn't really sure as it wasn't too clean since there were a couple of resistance spots but overall, it did fade back down. One thing to also note is at the end of the day it formed a base at $69 and went below it by a penny so it got some shorts trapped but it only pushed up a bit and then came back down. This is a good pattern to short with a tight stop as I have seen this before where it does this but it doesn't have any juice left to squeeze the chasers further and then it settles back down and really cracks it. It is better to be short beforehand though and take the leap of faith if it sets up. This stock was a good example of switching biases based on the price action.
MU: I was originally long biased but I saw everyone kept being bullish on it so that made me weary. If it washed out more at the open I would have taken a shot but it didn't go far enough down. I didn't really see a trade in it on the long side. On the short side though it made a nice lower high and what got me interested was it wicked above the support and came all the way back down and got rejected nicely so I immediately shorted right afterwards and was in the money right away. I ended up covering too soon it seemed although I followed my plan to just scalp it since overall it was bullish. It did end up coming back later in the day. I just didn't expect it to come down a lot further. Overall great trade and good process.
BABA: I was short biased out of the gate but didn't see a great spot to get in short for the morning flush. It bounced back and then had some lower highs and then came back under vwap and had a nice pattern. I got short. It did consolidate for a while and it at times got me thinking I made the wrong move and I thought about taking it off for breakeven but was confident in it and it ended up working well. It didn't go as far down as I had hoped but it was a decent trade nonetheless. I guess there are psychological lessons here to be learned although I have already discussed everything involved.
Things to remember:
1. Fake highs/lows don't have to be it for the day. It can just be it for a bit before it regroups and heads back higher or lower.
2. Don't confuse what happens in one stock with another.
3. Diluting plays are different from legit stocks that happen to have big offers and bids.
4. When you see a big offer and the stock rams right into it without filling then that is a good sign for a top.
5. Look up what it did in the recent past in terms of news on longer term charts.
6. Don't discount anything and also don't let lowish volume affect you.
7. Look more closely for the patterns to make sure you are getting them right.
8. When a stock guns stops but then comes right back then go long/short.
Wednesday, December 21, 2016
Trading Recap 12/21/16
Today was another pretty decent losing day. New record of biggest losing day by $1. A lot to learn still but the losses are helping me focus in on what I need to do to improve. Basically the main things are to not trust the level 2 at all, only focus on the best trades that you have good conviction in, and don't take the mediocre trades and also take the trades that you lose consistently on the short side and go long instead. It is funny seeing how easy it is hindsight. I have also started using spreadsheets to track my setups and whether or not for the trades I take if patience is good, if a breakeven stop is good, etc. I am also tracking what happens after a certain type of news is released.
ACAD: I had this on watch for a continued fade based on how it didn't bounce much yesterday. My plan was to see if it peaked the 28.20-.30 level from the day before. At the open it started to fade and then it looked like it was holding under vwap. I decided to try it on a vwap test as it was consolidating in that area. I did have a hunch that this could be one of the many, almost every, time that this ends up being a low and I short at the bottom of an incoming upward move. That is exactly what happened and I got out in the .40s. I knew at that point it wasn't going to work and it wasn't doing what I thought it would by holding vwap and giving it some extra room. I should have also drawn some potential support that it did hit from the day before as well. So all in all it was a bad trade for not drawing more support lines from the day before. While the trade could have worked it is either going to hold vwap very closely or it is a better long. From now on if I see a pattern like this, I will just go long when it goes back above vwap as almost every time it has been a good long as long as it looks like this. The level 2 made it seem like it was rejecting vwap at the time so I thought that added to the possibility of it working - WRONG! Also, the fade setup/pattern later in the day was really great and had I seen that and possibly waited for that that would have been a guarantee almost. So a few lessons here: 1. Disregard vwap at the open for these types of shorts (you know this but for this trade you did have some other resistance in your favor but it didn't look too clean). 2. Go long these vwap breaks 3. Be aware of more levels from day before 4. Look for the fade setup later in the day on names you are originally interested in shorting - usually they offer good fades after the morning push. Also note that if you get a short right at the open that is fine but to cover at least some and then all of it on a vwap break and possibly go long after that.
FINL: This had pretty bad earnings and guidance. The whole thing smelled like a fade. I was hoping for a short against $20 in the morning but when it opened I got the feeling that it would bust through that so I waited. There wasn't much in terms of resistance that could have been charted so I didn't want to just short randomly. I decided to wait to see if $20 would peak because there was a huge bidder there that kept absorbing shares so I wanted to see him get taken out and then if $20 peaked I would start in. That is exactly what happened and it went down then back up above $20 but I stayed in thinking it could just be getting people out. It did drop below $20 and it made a new low but was then quickly bought back up. I was going to add on the new low but decided against it due to the SSR and not wanting to chase an add at this poor spot. However, it started hanging around my average and eventually broke through $20 and hit my stop. I was up around 40 cents on my trade but really thought I could get $1 out of it at least but I was wrong. I knew it had a high short interest but it seemed odd that it was holding up the way it was. It didn't go down so much that shorts would cover so it was odd for sure. I don't regret this trade at all and it was a good trade on all accounts. The patience just didn't work I guess but I would have been more pissed if I had taken it off right away vs. being patient.
SGY: This was my fuckup for the day. I shorted at 11.55 because it looked like it was going to start to fade. I had a feeling it would and the small pattern it made got me thinking that while it looked like a breakout candidate and looked like it was going to higher, it would be one of those that just faded instead. Unfortunately I stopped out near the highs as it did push higher and I didn't want to be stuck in another squeeze if it did happen. Honestly while this happened to be near the top, in realtime it was the right move because you never know. As it stayed above vwap it wasn't really a short afterwards. However, afterwards it cracked vwap and consolidated under it. I knew it was going to fade more, I really did. But the volume sucked and I didn't want to be short something with that volume. But I forgot that once the sell is on then the volume starts to really kick in. So it would have been fine to short it. I was thinking about shorting it as it looked like it was going to go lower but didn't want to chase it down although it looked good. I did have the chance for a better entry as it first climbed a bit before getting rejected and then starting the real fade. By the time the real fade was on I hit my downside so couldn't do anything else with it. So lessons: 1. Perhaps give things more room like I could have given it to $12 (it sounds like hindsight but that is the next whole number). I think I would have preferred to stop out and try again if I wanted to. $12 was an interesting level from the day before. 2. These patterns usually take a bit longer to do what you want first so don't chase but wait for the better entry. 3. Even if something like this has low vol, it will have high vol later on if it does what you think.
NVDA: I drew the support and resistance lines from yesterday and knew I wanted to be long or short if it was above or below those lines and held. It started fading and I wasn't sure whether or not while it consolidated if it was a good entry or if I could get a better one. I probably could have scaled into it with two entries like I ended up doing later on and then add on pops on the way down. It stopped going down at a random spot but it kept wicking down and getting bought up. Sometimes it means something and sometimes it doesn't but taking half off here wouldn't have been a bad idea at least if you were short. What I did end up doing was short it at vwap half and then add half as it went to $105. My thought process was that if this was the day it was going to fade a bit then any pops up to $105 should be shorted. I didn't know if it would stop at vwap or $105 so that is why I scaled in. I ended up getting out where I added though because I didn't like the way it was acting and honestly adding at $105 while ok with the size I had just didn't seem right. It wasn't really doing what I thought it should, it bounced too much for it to fade more. In fact I should have went long as it had a nice pattern after it broke out from 104.50 for a move at least to $105. Lesson: Don't just put orders at vwap thinking it will stop there after you missed the fade move back down. It has to make sense and with the pattern mentioned above it just didn't make sense. Go long instead when you see a pattern like you did.
NKE: Just a potential scalp trade that I stopped out on. I thought it looked good for a potential fade after it was consolidating near the lows and looked like a bear flag. I put a tight stop thinking it should work relatively quickly but it just stopped me out. It went a bit lower but not to my target and then it reversed. It was a bad entry but I thought it would work right away so that is why I did it. Sometimes it works when it looks like it is about to do it and other times like SGY it needs to cycle through shorts first. But it didn't have much followthrough anyway. I guess the lesson here is to just miss the trade unless you get a better entry. I didn't have a take on earnings but the way it looked chart-wise it made it seem like it could fade more.
FDX: I didn't trade it in the morning but the big spray up and then stuff right back down and then big fade goes to show you anything is possible. I saw a nice ABCD pattern and the earnings could have gone either way for me so I went long and then added over resistance. I was in the money a but thought it could go higher and had offers up at various spots but was wrong as to how far it could go as it ended up coming back down under the whole number where I shorted it. I took the add off just to be safe. I then added more when the bid was really absorbing (I know no L2 but this was right at vwap with a good chart and the risk was 2 cents and I was out so it was worth it if it did end up working). It didn't end up working so I got out for a loss. While it was frustrating to see me be up on the trade nicely only to get out for a loss, I think it was overall good process.
Things to remember:
1. No l2 trades.
2. Focus on the best trades that you don't think "maybe it can work". If you can't see it right away then don't bother
3. Disregard vwap at the open for these types of shorts (you know this but for this trade you did have some other resistance in your favor but it didn't look too clean). Go long these vwap break.
4. Look for the fade setup later in the day on names you are originally interested in shorting - usually they offer good fades after the morning push
5. Give things more room.
6. Even for low vol, it can have volume when the fade/breakout actually happens.
ACAD: I had this on watch for a continued fade based on how it didn't bounce much yesterday. My plan was to see if it peaked the 28.20-.30 level from the day before. At the open it started to fade and then it looked like it was holding under vwap. I decided to try it on a vwap test as it was consolidating in that area. I did have a hunch that this could be one of the many, almost every, time that this ends up being a low and I short at the bottom of an incoming upward move. That is exactly what happened and I got out in the .40s. I knew at that point it wasn't going to work and it wasn't doing what I thought it would by holding vwap and giving it some extra room. I should have also drawn some potential support that it did hit from the day before as well. So all in all it was a bad trade for not drawing more support lines from the day before. While the trade could have worked it is either going to hold vwap very closely or it is a better long. From now on if I see a pattern like this, I will just go long when it goes back above vwap as almost every time it has been a good long as long as it looks like this. The level 2 made it seem like it was rejecting vwap at the time so I thought that added to the possibility of it working - WRONG! Also, the fade setup/pattern later in the day was really great and had I seen that and possibly waited for that that would have been a guarantee almost. So a few lessons here: 1. Disregard vwap at the open for these types of shorts (you know this but for this trade you did have some other resistance in your favor but it didn't look too clean). 2. Go long these vwap breaks 3. Be aware of more levels from day before 4. Look for the fade setup later in the day on names you are originally interested in shorting - usually they offer good fades after the morning push. Also note that if you get a short right at the open that is fine but to cover at least some and then all of it on a vwap break and possibly go long after that.
FINL: This had pretty bad earnings and guidance. The whole thing smelled like a fade. I was hoping for a short against $20 in the morning but when it opened I got the feeling that it would bust through that so I waited. There wasn't much in terms of resistance that could have been charted so I didn't want to just short randomly. I decided to wait to see if $20 would peak because there was a huge bidder there that kept absorbing shares so I wanted to see him get taken out and then if $20 peaked I would start in. That is exactly what happened and it went down then back up above $20 but I stayed in thinking it could just be getting people out. It did drop below $20 and it made a new low but was then quickly bought back up. I was going to add on the new low but decided against it due to the SSR and not wanting to chase an add at this poor spot. However, it started hanging around my average and eventually broke through $20 and hit my stop. I was up around 40 cents on my trade but really thought I could get $1 out of it at least but I was wrong. I knew it had a high short interest but it seemed odd that it was holding up the way it was. It didn't go down so much that shorts would cover so it was odd for sure. I don't regret this trade at all and it was a good trade on all accounts. The patience just didn't work I guess but I would have been more pissed if I had taken it off right away vs. being patient.
SGY: This was my fuckup for the day. I shorted at 11.55 because it looked like it was going to start to fade. I had a feeling it would and the small pattern it made got me thinking that while it looked like a breakout candidate and looked like it was going to higher, it would be one of those that just faded instead. Unfortunately I stopped out near the highs as it did push higher and I didn't want to be stuck in another squeeze if it did happen. Honestly while this happened to be near the top, in realtime it was the right move because you never know. As it stayed above vwap it wasn't really a short afterwards. However, afterwards it cracked vwap and consolidated under it. I knew it was going to fade more, I really did. But the volume sucked and I didn't want to be short something with that volume. But I forgot that once the sell is on then the volume starts to really kick in. So it would have been fine to short it. I was thinking about shorting it as it looked like it was going to go lower but didn't want to chase it down although it looked good. I did have the chance for a better entry as it first climbed a bit before getting rejected and then starting the real fade. By the time the real fade was on I hit my downside so couldn't do anything else with it. So lessons: 1. Perhaps give things more room like I could have given it to $12 (it sounds like hindsight but that is the next whole number). I think I would have preferred to stop out and try again if I wanted to. $12 was an interesting level from the day before. 2. These patterns usually take a bit longer to do what you want first so don't chase but wait for the better entry. 3. Even if something like this has low vol, it will have high vol later on if it does what you think.
NVDA: I drew the support and resistance lines from yesterday and knew I wanted to be long or short if it was above or below those lines and held. It started fading and I wasn't sure whether or not while it consolidated if it was a good entry or if I could get a better one. I probably could have scaled into it with two entries like I ended up doing later on and then add on pops on the way down. It stopped going down at a random spot but it kept wicking down and getting bought up. Sometimes it means something and sometimes it doesn't but taking half off here wouldn't have been a bad idea at least if you were short. What I did end up doing was short it at vwap half and then add half as it went to $105. My thought process was that if this was the day it was going to fade a bit then any pops up to $105 should be shorted. I didn't know if it would stop at vwap or $105 so that is why I scaled in. I ended up getting out where I added though because I didn't like the way it was acting and honestly adding at $105 while ok with the size I had just didn't seem right. It wasn't really doing what I thought it should, it bounced too much for it to fade more. In fact I should have went long as it had a nice pattern after it broke out from 104.50 for a move at least to $105. Lesson: Don't just put orders at vwap thinking it will stop there after you missed the fade move back down. It has to make sense and with the pattern mentioned above it just didn't make sense. Go long instead when you see a pattern like you did.
NKE: Just a potential scalp trade that I stopped out on. I thought it looked good for a potential fade after it was consolidating near the lows and looked like a bear flag. I put a tight stop thinking it should work relatively quickly but it just stopped me out. It went a bit lower but not to my target and then it reversed. It was a bad entry but I thought it would work right away so that is why I did it. Sometimes it works when it looks like it is about to do it and other times like SGY it needs to cycle through shorts first. But it didn't have much followthrough anyway. I guess the lesson here is to just miss the trade unless you get a better entry. I didn't have a take on earnings but the way it looked chart-wise it made it seem like it could fade more.
FDX: I didn't trade it in the morning but the big spray up and then stuff right back down and then big fade goes to show you anything is possible. I saw a nice ABCD pattern and the earnings could have gone either way for me so I went long and then added over resistance. I was in the money a but thought it could go higher and had offers up at various spots but was wrong as to how far it could go as it ended up coming back down under the whole number where I shorted it. I took the add off just to be safe. I then added more when the bid was really absorbing (I know no L2 but this was right at vwap with a good chart and the risk was 2 cents and I was out so it was worth it if it did end up working). It didn't end up working so I got out for a loss. While it was frustrating to see me be up on the trade nicely only to get out for a loss, I think it was overall good process.
Things to remember:
1. No l2 trades.
2. Focus on the best trades that you don't think "maybe it can work". If you can't see it right away then don't bother
3. Disregard vwap at the open for these types of shorts (you know this but for this trade you did have some other resistance in your favor but it didn't look too clean). Go long these vwap break.
4. Look for the fade setup later in the day on names you are originally interested in shorting - usually they offer good fades after the morning push
5. Give things more room.
6. Even for low vol, it can have volume when the fade/breakout actually happens.
Tuesday, December 20, 2016
Trading Recap 12/20/16
Today was not a good day as far as results go. I hit my downside fairly quickly. Process-wise it wasn't horrible. Some tweaks will have to be made for sure. In general, giving things more room and sizing down if need be - I no longer ever want to be stopped out if I end up being right in a trade (within reason). I also will no longer be using level 2 at all unless it is blatant. No trade shall be put on with the reason being solely from level 2 information. It has gotten me in trouble more than once and it is definitely a pattern where most of the time it is bullshit.
CNAT: I saw in premkt that the offers were absorbing and it was stuffing near the 5.25 level. I thought it was weak and given the news I thought it could fade. Plus it has a history of fading on days like today based on the daily chart. I didn't get it right at the open but when it got to vwap I thought it would be a good attempt and I would add higher if need be at 5.30ish so I did do smaller size here since my risk was so high. As I switched to the 3min vs. the 2min I was using though, it definitely didn't look as good but I decided to stick with it and not take the tiny loss once I realized that because I figured it would eventually fade. This was a mistake as I should have just gotten out and then reassessed. Anyway, when it got to 5.30s and it stuffed on big volume I added in. However, I didn't give it enough room past that it seems. I saw it spray to 5.43 so I put my stop at 5.45 thinking that if it got past there then it would definitely go higher. It stopped me out at what ended up being the top and then faded back down. I thought about shorting after it dumped but wanted it to pop a bit more than it did but it just stayed near the lows and then dropped. I also thought about a breakdown trade but I didn't want to bother with that in case it just wicked through. I wasn't going to chase it even though it ended up working - I've had enough of that. Lessons: The level 2 from premkt and the stuffs made you overly bearish without thinking about what it can do. Realize (and I knew this when I was trading it) that what happens in premkt or at the open may not be indicative of how it plays out afterwards. Also if you don't like a trade right after getting in then just get out. Also you have to give things over/under room just in case. So $5.30s over/under is a good point. It went to 5.50 which makes it tough but it never broke it.
ACAD: With the big fade from the premarket highs I thought this could just continue at the open. I saw an offer walking it down with it absorbing at each new level. So when it opened I saw $29 was absorbing so I tried to get in there with the idea that $29 can hold and it would have a straight fade but that wasn't the case and it broke through it. I tried it again later at a different spot but it didn't work either so then I gave up. Had I ignored the level 2 and just stuck to shorting it at vwap that would have worked out perfect. So the lesson here is to not use the level 2 for absorbs unless it is repeated.
AKBA: I just kept it on watch because it seemed like the type that could fade. It did fade straight from the open but then I noticed a large vwap stuff so I shorted there with risk to it on vwap. I did extra size and when it started going above vwap a bit I just went back to regular size although I do not like this technique so I won't be doing it in the future especially since it's not really scalable when you get into bigger sizes. The mistake was to not see that 10.25ish was a level from premkt and that should be the over/under instead of just vwap to give it more room. I gave it some room to hold vwap and then it flushed which I thought looked good but then it came right back above vwap and I moved my stop down and I just got out since at that point I had a feeling if it got back above vwap it could go higher. It never did anything else for the rest of the day for the most part although it did tick higher before coming off again. I don't think there is a lesson here as honestly this was the only trade I didn't really mind how it ended up and the process behind it.
Things to remember:
1. Don't use level 2.
2. What happens at premkt and the open doesn't indicate how it will trade afterwards in most scenarios.
3. Use less size to give things over/under room.
CNAT: I saw in premkt that the offers were absorbing and it was stuffing near the 5.25 level. I thought it was weak and given the news I thought it could fade. Plus it has a history of fading on days like today based on the daily chart. I didn't get it right at the open but when it got to vwap I thought it would be a good attempt and I would add higher if need be at 5.30ish so I did do smaller size here since my risk was so high. As I switched to the 3min vs. the 2min I was using though, it definitely didn't look as good but I decided to stick with it and not take the tiny loss once I realized that because I figured it would eventually fade. This was a mistake as I should have just gotten out and then reassessed. Anyway, when it got to 5.30s and it stuffed on big volume I added in. However, I didn't give it enough room past that it seems. I saw it spray to 5.43 so I put my stop at 5.45 thinking that if it got past there then it would definitely go higher. It stopped me out at what ended up being the top and then faded back down. I thought about shorting after it dumped but wanted it to pop a bit more than it did but it just stayed near the lows and then dropped. I also thought about a breakdown trade but I didn't want to bother with that in case it just wicked through. I wasn't going to chase it even though it ended up working - I've had enough of that. Lessons: The level 2 from premkt and the stuffs made you overly bearish without thinking about what it can do. Realize (and I knew this when I was trading it) that what happens in premkt or at the open may not be indicative of how it plays out afterwards. Also if you don't like a trade right after getting in then just get out. Also you have to give things over/under room just in case. So $5.30s over/under is a good point. It went to 5.50 which makes it tough but it never broke it.
ACAD: With the big fade from the premarket highs I thought this could just continue at the open. I saw an offer walking it down with it absorbing at each new level. So when it opened I saw $29 was absorbing so I tried to get in there with the idea that $29 can hold and it would have a straight fade but that wasn't the case and it broke through it. I tried it again later at a different spot but it didn't work either so then I gave up. Had I ignored the level 2 and just stuck to shorting it at vwap that would have worked out perfect. So the lesson here is to not use the level 2 for absorbs unless it is repeated.
AKBA: I just kept it on watch because it seemed like the type that could fade. It did fade straight from the open but then I noticed a large vwap stuff so I shorted there with risk to it on vwap. I did extra size and when it started going above vwap a bit I just went back to regular size although I do not like this technique so I won't be doing it in the future especially since it's not really scalable when you get into bigger sizes. The mistake was to not see that 10.25ish was a level from premkt and that should be the over/under instead of just vwap to give it more room. I gave it some room to hold vwap and then it flushed which I thought looked good but then it came right back above vwap and I moved my stop down and I just got out since at that point I had a feeling if it got back above vwap it could go higher. It never did anything else for the rest of the day for the most part although it did tick higher before coming off again. I don't think there is a lesson here as honestly this was the only trade I didn't really mind how it ended up and the process behind it.
Things to remember:
1. Don't use level 2.
2. What happens at premkt and the open doesn't indicate how it will trade afterwards in most scenarios.
3. Use less size to give things over/under room.
Monday, December 19, 2016
Trading Recap 12/19/16
Another small losing day although the process was slightly better. Some improvements need to be made but nothing crazy. I did much better with just focusing on the best trades that I saw right away vs. random other shit that I don't have much confidence in although that too still needs work.
XGTI: This had the chance to be a decent winner but I mismanaged the position and had poor entries with the size I had and I kept trying to add size with a tight stop using the level 2 levels where the offers were absorbing a lot but it just came down to using the chart in the end. I've been burned using the level 2 too much so I will be phasing that out except for certain scenarios. It would keep holding a level on the offer then go above it a few cents and then come back down. It is hard to set a true stop other than giving it enough room based on chart levels which is what I should have done. Of course the levels I saw could have held and that could have been it but I guess the first lesson here on these diluting stock plays is that just because an offer holds at a certain level and is absorbing, that doesn't mean it won't go through it a bit more at least. Just use the chart and some level 2 for a general sense of "ok, they are diluting and it is heavy". Anyway, it started ramping up in the morning and the top ended up being where it broke out slightly but that small push was it. It was hard to say that that was the top and I definitely didn't want to get run over and I saw no need for picking a top. While it would have been nice to short at the high, I don't really regret that. It came off a bit and it was still holding up at that point. I knew it wasn't going to be that easy and I figured that it would have at least fuck over some shorts at least by doing something more which would provide an entry. It perked on bigger volume on the 1min and it definitely looked like a stuff and that did end up being a very good stuff. Normally I wouldn't have bothered to look for a top in a scenario like this but going through SEC filings I knew they had an effect out and overall these R/S plays just fade back where they came from because they are being diluted. So I had all that going for me. The stuff at 4.70 was worth a shot with all these combined. But either way it faded off below vwap and I figured it looked like the type of play to just stay and hover under vwap and then continue lower which is what it did. I shorted because 4.30 was definitely a level but also my idea was vwap over/under. It stayed under vwap and when I thought it would have immediate continuation I added in but I was too early on the add and so now I was stuck with a bigger position than I would have liked. It never violated that 4.30 though but I wanted to play it safe. I got out and then reshorted. I basically kept trying to be cute with it like I said I shouldn't be and just kept doing stupid shit in the consolidation until it finally broke down but now with all the stupid shit I did I had a bad average. I ended up adding when I really felt it was going lower and it did go to $4 but then hung around. I was looking for more followthrough so when it went back to my average with the I sized down. It climbed back up before coming back down. It was good I still had my original and gave that enough room as it did go higher than I thought it would before coming back down. I moved my stop down because I thought it shouldn't get back over $4 once it was nicely under it but once the $3.80s broke and then reclaimed, I had a feeling it wouldn't go lower right away and I was right but I was willing to give it the benefit of the doubt considering all the things going on but my moved down stop got triggered which got me out. It went back to my average so I guess I would have gotten out for flat vs. a small profit but it did end up going to my original target. Lessons: Even with these stocks that are diluting, the levels on the level 2 aren't exactly perfect so just go by the chart as per usual and give things over/under room. Don't add then get out and keep doing it. Don't be cute with stops either or your orders. Just use the chart and short pops and that's it. It is nice if you can add with tight risk but if it means you just get chopped up then fuck it.
JBL: Looked good for a fade based on the pattern I saw. I shorted it and it had immediate followthrough but then started coming back towards my price and it wasn't because I was afraid of losing but the pattern I saw should have more immediate followthrough and no retests so when it got back to my price I just got out for flat. That ended up being a good call because it went higher then lower and didn't do much the entire day. Overall, it was good process in my opinion because I shorted when I thought I had edge but when it wasn't doing as I planned I got out. I was contemplating whether or not I was just being too quick about it and should let it play out but I decided if it was coming back up it probably wouldn't work at that instance anyway.
DUST: I went long at the end of the day when GDX/NUGT had good patterns. It was a bit iffy but it was worth a shot to try with smaller size. I wasn't 100% on it but with the way it acted with the market during the day and with the pattern I thought it had a decent enough shot of working. It perked a bit after I bought a dip but as it was near the close and GDX was starting to rebound, I knew it wasn't going to happen so I just moved my stop up and got out. It was worth a shot in my opinion. It was good that I was still scanning for setups later in the day.
LOXO: Just a breakdown trade going into the close that I did on small size. I am going to avoid breakdown/breakout trades like this going forward because I just don't like them and the risk is hard to quantify. I will examine these going forward but they definitely aren't a favorite. I have a hard time trusting them because you never know if it is a fakeout or not. I said no more arbitrary stops and with these you kind of have to unless you want to give them much bigger room. It is something that should only be used in the rarest of circumstances.
CLVS: Tried shorting it which would have worked great but these offers/bids absorbing on these news plays are just not reliable. It goes above/below them and you get stopped out then it goes back in that direction and then you are afraid to try it again. Not even afraid but not wanting to get chopped up time after time of trying them like what would have happened on the casinos. Overall, not worth it. They ended up working later on as the downtrend continued but after I got out the first time I figured the other times it wouldn't work, which ended up being incorrect. Process wise I think I would honestly rather miss out then get chopped up trying these stupid trades.
Things to remember:
1. With breaking news, don't bother with offers/bids absorbing. They work at times for sure but unless you feel very strongly about something then it probably isn't worth it. More experience will be needed though on these sorts of plays to make a definitive judgment.
2. Forget breakout/breakdown plays for 99% of the time.
3. Even with these stocks that are diluting, the levels on the level 2 aren't exactly perfect so just go by the chart as per usual and give things over/under room.
4. Don't add then get out and keep doing it. Don't be cute with stops either or your orders. Just use the chart and short pops and that's it. It is nice if you can add with tight risk but if it means you just get chopped up then fuck it.
5. Haven't said this in a while but.. TRADE THE BEST, FUCK THE REST. TRADE THE SETUPS THAT MATCH YOUR STRENGTHS.
6. When downtrending, stocks can pop up a bit more than you think before they continue going lower.
XGTI: This had the chance to be a decent winner but I mismanaged the position and had poor entries with the size I had and I kept trying to add size with a tight stop using the level 2 levels where the offers were absorbing a lot but it just came down to using the chart in the end. I've been burned using the level 2 too much so I will be phasing that out except for certain scenarios. It would keep holding a level on the offer then go above it a few cents and then come back down. It is hard to set a true stop other than giving it enough room based on chart levels which is what I should have done. Of course the levels I saw could have held and that could have been it but I guess the first lesson here on these diluting stock plays is that just because an offer holds at a certain level and is absorbing, that doesn't mean it won't go through it a bit more at least. Just use the chart and some level 2 for a general sense of "ok, they are diluting and it is heavy". Anyway, it started ramping up in the morning and the top ended up being where it broke out slightly but that small push was it. It was hard to say that that was the top and I definitely didn't want to get run over and I saw no need for picking a top. While it would have been nice to short at the high, I don't really regret that. It came off a bit and it was still holding up at that point. I knew it wasn't going to be that easy and I figured that it would have at least fuck over some shorts at least by doing something more which would provide an entry. It perked on bigger volume on the 1min and it definitely looked like a stuff and that did end up being a very good stuff. Normally I wouldn't have bothered to look for a top in a scenario like this but going through SEC filings I knew they had an effect out and overall these R/S plays just fade back where they came from because they are being diluted. So I had all that going for me. The stuff at 4.70 was worth a shot with all these combined. But either way it faded off below vwap and I figured it looked like the type of play to just stay and hover under vwap and then continue lower which is what it did. I shorted because 4.30 was definitely a level but also my idea was vwap over/under. It stayed under vwap and when I thought it would have immediate continuation I added in but I was too early on the add and so now I was stuck with a bigger position than I would have liked. It never violated that 4.30 though but I wanted to play it safe. I got out and then reshorted. I basically kept trying to be cute with it like I said I shouldn't be and just kept doing stupid shit in the consolidation until it finally broke down but now with all the stupid shit I did I had a bad average. I ended up adding when I really felt it was going lower and it did go to $4 but then hung around. I was looking for more followthrough so when it went back to my average with the I sized down. It climbed back up before coming back down. It was good I still had my original and gave that enough room as it did go higher than I thought it would before coming back down. I moved my stop down because I thought it shouldn't get back over $4 once it was nicely under it but once the $3.80s broke and then reclaimed, I had a feeling it wouldn't go lower right away and I was right but I was willing to give it the benefit of the doubt considering all the things going on but my moved down stop got triggered which got me out. It went back to my average so I guess I would have gotten out for flat vs. a small profit but it did end up going to my original target. Lessons: Even with these stocks that are diluting, the levels on the level 2 aren't exactly perfect so just go by the chart as per usual and give things over/under room. Don't add then get out and keep doing it. Don't be cute with stops either or your orders. Just use the chart and short pops and that's it. It is nice if you can add with tight risk but if it means you just get chopped up then fuck it.
JBL: Looked good for a fade based on the pattern I saw. I shorted it and it had immediate followthrough but then started coming back towards my price and it wasn't because I was afraid of losing but the pattern I saw should have more immediate followthrough and no retests so when it got back to my price I just got out for flat. That ended up being a good call because it went higher then lower and didn't do much the entire day. Overall, it was good process in my opinion because I shorted when I thought I had edge but when it wasn't doing as I planned I got out. I was contemplating whether or not I was just being too quick about it and should let it play out but I decided if it was coming back up it probably wouldn't work at that instance anyway.
DUST: I went long at the end of the day when GDX/NUGT had good patterns. It was a bit iffy but it was worth a shot to try with smaller size. I wasn't 100% on it but with the way it acted with the market during the day and with the pattern I thought it had a decent enough shot of working. It perked a bit after I bought a dip but as it was near the close and GDX was starting to rebound, I knew it wasn't going to happen so I just moved my stop up and got out. It was worth a shot in my opinion. It was good that I was still scanning for setups later in the day.
LOXO: Just a breakdown trade going into the close that I did on small size. I am going to avoid breakdown/breakout trades like this going forward because I just don't like them and the risk is hard to quantify. I will examine these going forward but they definitely aren't a favorite. I have a hard time trusting them because you never know if it is a fakeout or not. I said no more arbitrary stops and with these you kind of have to unless you want to give them much bigger room. It is something that should only be used in the rarest of circumstances.
CLVS: Tried shorting it which would have worked great but these offers/bids absorbing on these news plays are just not reliable. It goes above/below them and you get stopped out then it goes back in that direction and then you are afraid to try it again. Not even afraid but not wanting to get chopped up time after time of trying them like what would have happened on the casinos. Overall, not worth it. They ended up working later on as the downtrend continued but after I got out the first time I figured the other times it wouldn't work, which ended up being incorrect. Process wise I think I would honestly rather miss out then get chopped up trying these stupid trades.
Things to remember:
1. With breaking news, don't bother with offers/bids absorbing. They work at times for sure but unless you feel very strongly about something then it probably isn't worth it. More experience will be needed though on these sorts of plays to make a definitive judgment.
2. Forget breakout/breakdown plays for 99% of the time.
3. Even with these stocks that are diluting, the levels on the level 2 aren't exactly perfect so just go by the chart as per usual and give things over/under room.
4. Don't add then get out and keep doing it. Don't be cute with stops either or your orders. Just use the chart and short pops and that's it. It is nice if you can add with tight risk but if it means you just get chopped up then fuck it.
5. Haven't said this in a while but.. TRADE THE BEST, FUCK THE REST. TRADE THE SETUPS THAT MATCH YOUR STRENGTHS.
6. When downtrending, stocks can pop up a bit more than you think before they continue going lower.
Saturday, December 17, 2016
Trading Recap 12/17/16
Friday was a pretty poor trading day. I did a lot of poor trades but the good takeaway from this is that I have learned a lot from this trading session and it wasn't a killer down day. Just a lot of small stupid trades that kept adding up. It really should have been a positive day or at the very least a flat day. I did miss a potential monster trade because I didn't have it on the forefront and I will discuss that later on.
JBL: This was the stock that I was most interested indue to the fact that it was gapping up near resistance on the daily chart and it was up on pretty lackluster earnings guidance. At the open I was looking for either the premarket support to fail or a fail at the premarket resistance. I saw it get to 24.15 and it was absorbing very heavily on the offer there. Enough so to make it seem very credible. It was also at the premarket resistance and everything else it had going for it to fade so it seemed like a very good trade idea. I decided to go in with more size than usual because it looked very good and my stop was if it broke that .15 level. It came back down to vwap and I was in the money by around 40 cents or so. I could have taken it off here but I have 0 regrets of doing so. I was instead looking to add possibly if it made a new low and peaked that .70 level. Instead it held and then it just broke out and went higher. Small loss and not a big deal. I didn't go long on it on dips or anything because I was still skeptical that this move was worth it but the trend was bullish until otherwise so I stayed away. Eventually it came back under $25 and couldn't get back above it. I decided to short around 24.90 with the idea that it could get to vwap at least as the move was definitely overdone. It worked for a little but it looked like it could have reclaimed the support so I just put a breakeven stop. It got triggered and I got out but that $25 never broke back above. It was one of those patterns I have seen where it looks like it reclaimed/inverted H&S but it just holds the resistance and then fades. After all was said and done it definitely looked like a short pattern. I am not really disappointed about getting out for flat. I still think it was good process. The only thing to do in this case is to keep an eye on it and see if it still doesn't breakout and if so and it looks like it is about to crack then go in. Overall the trading in this stock was the only good thing for the day that I did. Even though it was a loser I didn't mind losing on this at all given how good the setup was. One other thing to remember is to look at longer term weekly charts as this had clear resistance in the $25 area which helped with the idea and made it work so well for an afternoon fade.
OPHT: Horrible trading in this. I saw the news and when it opened it started spiking higher. I figured this was bullshit and just some freak thing so I shorted without a real reason other than it spiked on this bad news. It then went higher and stopped me out for the loss I deserved. I tried it again after it made a fake high by a penny and consolidated at the high but was way way too tight with the stop because I topticked the HOD and I would have had a nice fade then. But even this entry was poor. I just kept trying to pick the top again and didn't let it top out a bit at least. There was a potential entry after it had that fake high and then kind of retested 5.22 a couple of times. That was a good pattern. It would have just been a scalp I think to vwap or just underneath it which would have worked fine. I say scalp only because it seemed odd that it would just go higher like that. At the very least I would have taken 3/4 off I think and maybe let the rest ride for a breakeven stop which would have gotten hit. Lesson: Don't pick tops and don't get the FOMO. Wait for the setup.
TRVG: A couple of random trades that amounted to being down $2 in the name. It started going higher after the open but I didn't see any specific pattern really that I liked. It was absorbing a few times at different levels but I didn't buying it because it just didn't seem that strong with the IPO pricing being under the range. The trades I took in it were actually shorts because like I said it seemed weak and that important $12 level was peaking. I shorted both times at stupid spots for a breakdown when I should have done what I wanted to do and short at vwap or at $12 which would have worked. I shorted it at 11.50 for a breakdown trade thinking it would flush under it but it was stupid to do that because $11.50 was holding very well and it did break but I was expecting a violent flush for 20-30 cents but it just trickled down and when it got back to an offer of $11.50 I just decided to get out as it wasn't doing what I thought and it seemed trappish which was the right call. It ended up holding $11.50 again for a while which would have been a good spot to go long for a scalp which is what happened. Overall it was poor trading but had I done the proper thing it would have paid decently.
LLY: At the open I didn't really know what to think so I didn't trade it then. It ended up popping and then fading off. I didn't mind missing that as I didn't really know what to do with it. Then some news came out that was supposed to be good but it started to sell off. I didn't understand why so I should have avoided it but I just decided to short when it broke $72 for the reason that if it's not going up then it has to be going down and I wanted to make back some losses from before. This was only to be a scalp trade as there was support that I knew of from past charts. I decided after I got into it that it was a stupid trade and I didn't know what was going on so I just took it off for flat essentially. What ended up happening was pretty sad given I wanted to go long and knew where there was good support. It went right to the support line I drew and that was the LOD. I'm not sure if I would have bought it there but it did work. The higher probability trade was when it reclaimed $72 and dipped back to that support level. That was a good dip buy area and from there it went higher and even went past vwap. I thought about getting in when it broke past some little consolidation which would have worked great as that was the beginning of the uptrend but I guess I didn't want to buy a breakout like that at that time of the day. It seems for LLY little things like that work although maybe the catalyst was strong enough to support it. Either way the lesson here is to avoid things you don't know and to be open to anything and all possibilities.
HON: Just a stupid stupid trade that I wanted to scalp to again make back some losses. It was stupid because I shorted a breakdown at the wrong time of the day, made the chart fit into a pattern that wasn't there, and support was also in that area so it wasn't worth it. Overall stupid trade and should not be done at all.
Other mentions:
AGIO: I also had this on top watch due to the news and the range this has. The only trades I saw were when it went to vwap. Now it was a tough vwap short but it should have been more characterized as a resistance that happened to be at vwap short. The other thing to mention is that there was news a few days ago and then it was bought up and then it gapped down so people will want to sell so that is something to look out for in the future.
ADBE and ORCL: Definitely a lesson here to keep things like this on watch because even though the gap wasn't that much they both offered picture perfect shorts and especially with ADBE I could have really sized into that as it was a perfect chart for a fade. Not disappointed with not trading just to know that in the future to keep these on watch.
Things to remember:
1. Look at longer term weekly charts.
2. When a stock looks like it is reclaiming or has an inverted H&S and it doesn't breakout then short it for sure.
3. No bullshit trades. Only trades you have a plan for.
4. Remember: You have your risk and your profit targets and where you would add or size down. That is all trading is. You see a setup you like, you define your risk and where you would add etc and that is it.
5. Keep the other earnings on watch like these tech stocks that may get beatup for not posting great earnings/guidance.
6. Look for scenarios where a stock has bad news then is bought up then has a gap down on more bad news. People will want to get out.
7. No FOMO and no picking tops. Give things enough room.
8. Avoid thinks you don't understand.
JBL: This was the stock that I was most interested indue to the fact that it was gapping up near resistance on the daily chart and it was up on pretty lackluster earnings guidance. At the open I was looking for either the premarket support to fail or a fail at the premarket resistance. I saw it get to 24.15 and it was absorbing very heavily on the offer there. Enough so to make it seem very credible. It was also at the premarket resistance and everything else it had going for it to fade so it seemed like a very good trade idea. I decided to go in with more size than usual because it looked very good and my stop was if it broke that .15 level. It came back down to vwap and I was in the money by around 40 cents or so. I could have taken it off here but I have 0 regrets of doing so. I was instead looking to add possibly if it made a new low and peaked that .70 level. Instead it held and then it just broke out and went higher. Small loss and not a big deal. I didn't go long on it on dips or anything because I was still skeptical that this move was worth it but the trend was bullish until otherwise so I stayed away. Eventually it came back under $25 and couldn't get back above it. I decided to short around 24.90 with the idea that it could get to vwap at least as the move was definitely overdone. It worked for a little but it looked like it could have reclaimed the support so I just put a breakeven stop. It got triggered and I got out but that $25 never broke back above. It was one of those patterns I have seen where it looks like it reclaimed/inverted H&S but it just holds the resistance and then fades. After all was said and done it definitely looked like a short pattern. I am not really disappointed about getting out for flat. I still think it was good process. The only thing to do in this case is to keep an eye on it and see if it still doesn't breakout and if so and it looks like it is about to crack then go in. Overall the trading in this stock was the only good thing for the day that I did. Even though it was a loser I didn't mind losing on this at all given how good the setup was. One other thing to remember is to look at longer term weekly charts as this had clear resistance in the $25 area which helped with the idea and made it work so well for an afternoon fade.
OPHT: Horrible trading in this. I saw the news and when it opened it started spiking higher. I figured this was bullshit and just some freak thing so I shorted without a real reason other than it spiked on this bad news. It then went higher and stopped me out for the loss I deserved. I tried it again after it made a fake high by a penny and consolidated at the high but was way way too tight with the stop because I topticked the HOD and I would have had a nice fade then. But even this entry was poor. I just kept trying to pick the top again and didn't let it top out a bit at least. There was a potential entry after it had that fake high and then kind of retested 5.22 a couple of times. That was a good pattern. It would have just been a scalp I think to vwap or just underneath it which would have worked fine. I say scalp only because it seemed odd that it would just go higher like that. At the very least I would have taken 3/4 off I think and maybe let the rest ride for a breakeven stop which would have gotten hit. Lesson: Don't pick tops and don't get the FOMO. Wait for the setup.
TRVG: A couple of random trades that amounted to being down $2 in the name. It started going higher after the open but I didn't see any specific pattern really that I liked. It was absorbing a few times at different levels but I didn't buying it because it just didn't seem that strong with the IPO pricing being under the range. The trades I took in it were actually shorts because like I said it seemed weak and that important $12 level was peaking. I shorted both times at stupid spots for a breakdown when I should have done what I wanted to do and short at vwap or at $12 which would have worked. I shorted it at 11.50 for a breakdown trade thinking it would flush under it but it was stupid to do that because $11.50 was holding very well and it did break but I was expecting a violent flush for 20-30 cents but it just trickled down and when it got back to an offer of $11.50 I just decided to get out as it wasn't doing what I thought and it seemed trappish which was the right call. It ended up holding $11.50 again for a while which would have been a good spot to go long for a scalp which is what happened. Overall it was poor trading but had I done the proper thing it would have paid decently.
LLY: At the open I didn't really know what to think so I didn't trade it then. It ended up popping and then fading off. I didn't mind missing that as I didn't really know what to do with it. Then some news came out that was supposed to be good but it started to sell off. I didn't understand why so I should have avoided it but I just decided to short when it broke $72 for the reason that if it's not going up then it has to be going down and I wanted to make back some losses from before. This was only to be a scalp trade as there was support that I knew of from past charts. I decided after I got into it that it was a stupid trade and I didn't know what was going on so I just took it off for flat essentially. What ended up happening was pretty sad given I wanted to go long and knew where there was good support. It went right to the support line I drew and that was the LOD. I'm not sure if I would have bought it there but it did work. The higher probability trade was when it reclaimed $72 and dipped back to that support level. That was a good dip buy area and from there it went higher and even went past vwap. I thought about getting in when it broke past some little consolidation which would have worked great as that was the beginning of the uptrend but I guess I didn't want to buy a breakout like that at that time of the day. It seems for LLY little things like that work although maybe the catalyst was strong enough to support it. Either way the lesson here is to avoid things you don't know and to be open to anything and all possibilities.
HON: Just a stupid stupid trade that I wanted to scalp to again make back some losses. It was stupid because I shorted a breakdown at the wrong time of the day, made the chart fit into a pattern that wasn't there, and support was also in that area so it wasn't worth it. Overall stupid trade and should not be done at all.
Other mentions:
AGIO: I also had this on top watch due to the news and the range this has. The only trades I saw were when it went to vwap. Now it was a tough vwap short but it should have been more characterized as a resistance that happened to be at vwap short. The other thing to mention is that there was news a few days ago and then it was bought up and then it gapped down so people will want to sell so that is something to look out for in the future.
ADBE and ORCL: Definitely a lesson here to keep things like this on watch because even though the gap wasn't that much they both offered picture perfect shorts and especially with ADBE I could have really sized into that as it was a perfect chart for a fade. Not disappointed with not trading just to know that in the future to keep these on watch.
Things to remember:
1. Look at longer term weekly charts.
2. When a stock looks like it is reclaiming or has an inverted H&S and it doesn't breakout then short it for sure.
3. No bullshit trades. Only trades you have a plan for.
4. Remember: You have your risk and your profit targets and where you would add or size down. That is all trading is. You see a setup you like, you define your risk and where you would add etc and that is it.
5. Keep the other earnings on watch like these tech stocks that may get beatup for not posting great earnings/guidance.
6. Look for scenarios where a stock has bad news then is bought up then has a gap down on more bad news. People will want to get out.
7. No FOMO and no picking tops. Give things enough room.
8. Avoid thinks you don't understand.
Thursday, December 15, 2016
Trading Recap 12/15/16
Today was a slightly profitable day that could have been a lot more which sounds familiar. I am definitely getting tired of saying that though. I've learned a lot about what not to do and what things I shouldn't be doing but I feel it is time to start pressing on the specific setups that I feel are good. I believe the biggest thing hampering my progress is my inability to discern market prices as neither positive nor negative. I am associating my emotions with the movement of a stock and thus my defense systems kick in to save me from not wanting to experience any negative emotions. I tend to do this because I don't fully accept the risk of being in a position. Further, I believe this comes from not having an exact plan and being ok with the results. This means if I say my stop is over/under then I must truly mean it and if I say I will be patient and let it test around then anything that happens from that point forward is what I have to accept. If I have a stop in place for a particular trade then I have to be 100% ok with that money being gone so that I don't interpret the market as a negative influence. Also, when I place a trade there must be no expectation. I must accept that the money I am willing to risk is already gone and be content with that.
YHOO: It was not on my radar until the news hit about VZ. I did not play it then although I was pretty short biased but when I saw that it would not make new lows I thought that everyone must be thinking the same thing and that perhaps no one is really selling too much because the chances of them actually backing away are small. It did end up rebounding but my plan was to short when it got to resistance/vwap but I had a computer issue at the time and had to do something else so I didn't try it but I think I could have eventually had gotten in and that was just an excuse because of some of the things above. It hit vwap again but I didn't trade it then either which also would have worked. Eventually it broke below lows and looked like it was going to have a steady fade so I kind of chased short but smaller size and was going to give it proper room. It started trickling lower and it appeared very heavy on the level 2 in a meaningful way so when it was heavy below where I shorted I added more and gave it a tight stop to where my first entry was/ above where the offers kept absorbing. I held it for a while while it was consolidating until it broke .50 for real and then it just faded into the close. It was a good trade overall the only thing to note is the lack of shorting it at vwap like I wanted to and which would have resulted in much greater profits than my trade. Also, while I was in the trade I was letting every tick affect me. It shouldn't be like that. I have my target and my stop and that is it.
LLY: I had this on watch due to the increased guidance for next year. I have seen these fade from the open then get bought back up so that is potentially what I was looking for. It did drop a bit and when it retested the 69.70 area I thought about getting in but was too scared not to (this goes back to the above). It ended up going back above vwap where I thought about buying a dip or at least when it looked like it was going to go higher but didn't do it when it looked like it was going higher because it was lull and I didn't want to be buying on a break higher in case it was a fake out. It turned out that would have been a good buy but process wise that is fine because I rather not get faked out like that. The trade I actually ended up doing was when it was consolidating just under HOD and looked very good for a breakout so I went long on the breakout and my target was .70 and it almost got there but never did. I trailed my stop up and it got hit. I thought I was wicked out but it ended up fading anyway. Lesson: The pattern of these guidance plays either way tends to go in the opposite direction first then the direction of the gap later on. Also, the intro stuff relates to here as well.
DUST: I basically tried to go long on a breakout but with smaller size and it worked for a bit but I just kept upping my stop which got me out. It went way below the breakout spot. I will look at GDX/GDM as guides in the future vs. just DUST. Much easier to look at
NVDA: I tried a sort of random trade where I made what was happening fit into a setup I know. I took a small loss on it and now I know not to do that since it went higher after going long for a breakout. That is what happens when you use random points for entries and stops. Later on I went long on a flag breakout and it worked well but as I have said before the best flags just go and don't retest and I saw some selling at the HOD area at the time so I increased my stop and that got out for a slight profit. Lesson: no random entries and exits.
DCIX: Only thing to note is that these dead cat bounces can still fade intraday at least for a scalp/decent move and also don't fight it when it's going higher at EOD. Also realize the difference between something being pumped and shares being sold vs. just a sympathy play in a sector like this. I was incorrectly playing this like someone was dumping shares but that's not the case. It's just momo - so make the distinction here and also on good news vs pump news.
Things to remember:
1. What was said in the intro
2. These dead cat bounces can still fade intraday at least for a scalp/decent move and also don't fight it when it's going higher at EOD
3. Realize the difference between something being pumped and shares being sold vs. just a sympathy play in a sector like this.
4. No random entries and exits on these plays.
5. Look at GDX/GDM
6. The pattern of these guidance plays either way tends to go in the opposite direction first then the direction of the gap later on.
YHOO: It was not on my radar until the news hit about VZ. I did not play it then although I was pretty short biased but when I saw that it would not make new lows I thought that everyone must be thinking the same thing and that perhaps no one is really selling too much because the chances of them actually backing away are small. It did end up rebounding but my plan was to short when it got to resistance/vwap but I had a computer issue at the time and had to do something else so I didn't try it but I think I could have eventually had gotten in and that was just an excuse because of some of the things above. It hit vwap again but I didn't trade it then either which also would have worked. Eventually it broke below lows and looked like it was going to have a steady fade so I kind of chased short but smaller size and was going to give it proper room. It started trickling lower and it appeared very heavy on the level 2 in a meaningful way so when it was heavy below where I shorted I added more and gave it a tight stop to where my first entry was/ above where the offers kept absorbing. I held it for a while while it was consolidating until it broke .50 for real and then it just faded into the close. It was a good trade overall the only thing to note is the lack of shorting it at vwap like I wanted to and which would have resulted in much greater profits than my trade. Also, while I was in the trade I was letting every tick affect me. It shouldn't be like that. I have my target and my stop and that is it.
LLY: I had this on watch due to the increased guidance for next year. I have seen these fade from the open then get bought back up so that is potentially what I was looking for. It did drop a bit and when it retested the 69.70 area I thought about getting in but was too scared not to (this goes back to the above). It ended up going back above vwap where I thought about buying a dip or at least when it looked like it was going to go higher but didn't do it when it looked like it was going higher because it was lull and I didn't want to be buying on a break higher in case it was a fake out. It turned out that would have been a good buy but process wise that is fine because I rather not get faked out like that. The trade I actually ended up doing was when it was consolidating just under HOD and looked very good for a breakout so I went long on the breakout and my target was .70 and it almost got there but never did. I trailed my stop up and it got hit. I thought I was wicked out but it ended up fading anyway. Lesson: The pattern of these guidance plays either way tends to go in the opposite direction first then the direction of the gap later on. Also, the intro stuff relates to here as well.
DUST: I basically tried to go long on a breakout but with smaller size and it worked for a bit but I just kept upping my stop which got me out. It went way below the breakout spot. I will look at GDX/GDM as guides in the future vs. just DUST. Much easier to look at
NVDA: I tried a sort of random trade where I made what was happening fit into a setup I know. I took a small loss on it and now I know not to do that since it went higher after going long for a breakout. That is what happens when you use random points for entries and stops. Later on I went long on a flag breakout and it worked well but as I have said before the best flags just go and don't retest and I saw some selling at the HOD area at the time so I increased my stop and that got out for a slight profit. Lesson: no random entries and exits.
DCIX: Only thing to note is that these dead cat bounces can still fade intraday at least for a scalp/decent move and also don't fight it when it's going higher at EOD. Also realize the difference between something being pumped and shares being sold vs. just a sympathy play in a sector like this. I was incorrectly playing this like someone was dumping shares but that's not the case. It's just momo - so make the distinction here and also on good news vs pump news.
Things to remember:
1. What was said in the intro
2. These dead cat bounces can still fade intraday at least for a scalp/decent move and also don't fight it when it's going higher at EOD
3. Realize the difference between something being pumped and shares being sold vs. just a sympathy play in a sector like this.
4. No random entries and exits on these plays.
5. Look at GDX/GDM
6. The pattern of these guidance plays either way tends to go in the opposite direction first then the direction of the gap later on.
Wednesday, December 14, 2016
Trading Recap 12/14/16
I traded pretty poorly today although I didn't lose much which is good. I definitely went on a little tilt after the Fed when the things I wanted to do but didn't do worked and the stuff I eventually did just would not work. I won't go into detail about each ticker as it was just a bunch of attempts for the most part.
Just a bunch of things to work on and take note of:
1. Don't care about the money and the minute changes in PnL. Don't care about your PnL day to day.
2. Again from yesterday, don't do these stupid bullshit little trades that you try to be cute on and give it a few cents risk hoping it will work out.
3. If you do a breakout/breakdown trade you have to be ok with retesting or coming back below the area it broke out from especially on ETFs. Either don't play them or you have to give them the appropriate risk.
4. Another reminder about volume bars and not rushing in when you see a larger than prior volume bar.
5. Only use absorbing bids/offers as trade ideas if it is very obvious and it is persistent.
6. If you miss a trade because you didn't do it in the first place then don't try it later on a bounce/retracement. You missed it and often you are just shorting/buying into another move higher./lower.
7. If you're unsure just don't trade it. Better to observe how it acts for next time.
8. Just because something has an ATM doesn't mean it has to go down - I know I wrote the opposite a while ago but VCEL was a good example of this not working.
Just a bunch of things to work on and take note of:
1. Don't care about the money and the minute changes in PnL. Don't care about your PnL day to day.
2. Again from yesterday, don't do these stupid bullshit little trades that you try to be cute on and give it a few cents risk hoping it will work out.
3. If you do a breakout/breakdown trade you have to be ok with retesting or coming back below the area it broke out from especially on ETFs. Either don't play them or you have to give them the appropriate risk.
4. Another reminder about volume bars and not rushing in when you see a larger than prior volume bar.
5. Only use absorbing bids/offers as trade ideas if it is very obvious and it is persistent.
6. If you miss a trade because you didn't do it in the first place then don't try it later on a bounce/retracement. You missed it and often you are just shorting/buying into another move higher./lower.
7. If you're unsure just don't trade it. Better to observe how it acts for next time.
8. Just because something has an ATM doesn't mean it has to go down - I know I wrote the opposite a while ago but VCEL was a good example of this not working.
Tuesday, December 13, 2016
Trading Recap 12/13/16
Small losing day for me but a lot was learned so it was good. Basically the hey highlights from today are: you don't know how the stocks you are looking at/are in will play out or how the chart will look when everything is said and done - be prepared for anything, don't bother with the stupid little scalps when you try to get cute and see if it'll work - these just annoy you and don't play to your strengths, when looking at when to short/long based on volume, realize that there may be bigger volume later on (especially near the open) - volume should only be used when it is far and above any other volume bar during the day and not just when a candle is making bigger volume at the open (in most circumstances).
PAY: I just had it on watch in case of it doing anything interesting. The earnings and guidance were pretty bad in my opinion but it wasn't doing much in premkt so I just decided to keep it on watch although I had a short bias if a pattern or anything emerged. It started ramping up from the open and I saw bigger volume bars so thought it would be a good area to short so I tried it but then stopped out when it went higher. I tried it again later but that didn't work either. The second time was worth a shot although I should have given it more room since the resistance from the higher timeframe was around that area. I tried it one last time as it looked like it peaked out. I thought I was good but it just wouldn't breakdown so I put my stop above some resistance and that got hit and then I was done with it. The better play should have been realistically - try it the second time and give it enough room to 18 and then stop out as it was flagging and broke higher. Then when it had a really nice stuff through $18 try it again. It didn't fade too much but it at least got to vwap and the prior support which could have been a cover zone for some shares at least. So a few things: make sure you are aware of prior chart levels and give things enough room over/under, don't be so quick on the volume bar trades.
ALXN: I had this on watch for a 2nd day play in case it wanted to continue its downward move. I saw it hovering around vwap at the open and wasn't sure about it so I decided to wait and let it do its thing and if it dropped some, I would short pops. That is exactly what I did which provided a nice entry. I thought about adding when it popped but didn't feel it was a good spot yet as I didn't want to get too big yet. I did add later on when it seemed like it would go lower and it presented a decent pattern. It ended up hovering around where I added and I knew that with that type of setup it should be quicker so I put a stop on all of the shares if it went past a small resistance area near where I added and that got hit so I got out. It did pop quite a bit more afterwards so I thought that was a good call. Later on, I saw it trickling near lows again. I originally wanted to be patient with it but when I saw some higher lows I got out especially since I had added and it wasn't doing what I wanted. I tried shorting some breakdowns but didn't give it enough room on the first attempt which was stupid. Then I got a decent short on another breakdown but wanted to be patient but it ended up just going slightly below the premkt low from yesterday and then bouncing. I put a breakeven stop or slightly above it which got me out when it bounced. I tried it one last time for another stupid scalp attempt that I just got out of for flat when it didn't work. I guess it was worth a shot. Lessons: Let the stock tell you what it's going to do and don't try to pick a top or bottom and give things enough room.
AKAO: Just one stupid trade in it where I thought I saw a big bid flash and go away so I thought it would go lower but I realized the big bid wasn't really that big for a stock trading this much volume and I was thinking about a stock that has a much lower float and volume and that is a pump. This is a somewhat more legit stock so the same tricks don't apply. I originally had a more long bias at the open but wasn't really sure about it. While it would have been nice to be long I didn't really trust it so I don't mind missing out on it. When it got abveo vwap in the morning and dipped I thought about buying some but I still didn't believe it. Had I bought at $13 in the morning small size, just to note that it took a few attempts of not breaking down before it went higher. It really looked like it would go lower after a few test but it never did.
Other stocks:
NVCN: I should have know this was a rehash PR. Be on the lookout for that.
Things to remember:
1. Let the stock tell you what it's going to do and don't try to pick a top or bottom and give things enough room.
2. Be on the lookout for rehash PRs - scroll through news history.
3. You don't know how the stocks you are looking at/are in will play out or how the chart will look when everything is said and done - be prepared for anything.
4. Don't bother with the stupid little scalps when you try to get cute and see if it'll work - these just annoy you and don't play to your strengths.
5. Realize that there may be bigger volume later on (especially near the open) - volume should only be used when it is far and above any other volume bar during the day and not just when a candle is making bigger volume at the open (in most circumstances)
PAY: I just had it on watch in case of it doing anything interesting. The earnings and guidance were pretty bad in my opinion but it wasn't doing much in premkt so I just decided to keep it on watch although I had a short bias if a pattern or anything emerged. It started ramping up from the open and I saw bigger volume bars so thought it would be a good area to short so I tried it but then stopped out when it went higher. I tried it again later but that didn't work either. The second time was worth a shot although I should have given it more room since the resistance from the higher timeframe was around that area. I tried it one last time as it looked like it peaked out. I thought I was good but it just wouldn't breakdown so I put my stop above some resistance and that got hit and then I was done with it. The better play should have been realistically - try it the second time and give it enough room to 18 and then stop out as it was flagging and broke higher. Then when it had a really nice stuff through $18 try it again. It didn't fade too much but it at least got to vwap and the prior support which could have been a cover zone for some shares at least. So a few things: make sure you are aware of prior chart levels and give things enough room over/under, don't be so quick on the volume bar trades.
ALXN: I had this on watch for a 2nd day play in case it wanted to continue its downward move. I saw it hovering around vwap at the open and wasn't sure about it so I decided to wait and let it do its thing and if it dropped some, I would short pops. That is exactly what I did which provided a nice entry. I thought about adding when it popped but didn't feel it was a good spot yet as I didn't want to get too big yet. I did add later on when it seemed like it would go lower and it presented a decent pattern. It ended up hovering around where I added and I knew that with that type of setup it should be quicker so I put a stop on all of the shares if it went past a small resistance area near where I added and that got hit so I got out. It did pop quite a bit more afterwards so I thought that was a good call. Later on, I saw it trickling near lows again. I originally wanted to be patient with it but when I saw some higher lows I got out especially since I had added and it wasn't doing what I wanted. I tried shorting some breakdowns but didn't give it enough room on the first attempt which was stupid. Then I got a decent short on another breakdown but wanted to be patient but it ended up just going slightly below the premkt low from yesterday and then bouncing. I put a breakeven stop or slightly above it which got me out when it bounced. I tried it one last time for another stupid scalp attempt that I just got out of for flat when it didn't work. I guess it was worth a shot. Lessons: Let the stock tell you what it's going to do and don't try to pick a top or bottom and give things enough room.
AKAO: Just one stupid trade in it where I thought I saw a big bid flash and go away so I thought it would go lower but I realized the big bid wasn't really that big for a stock trading this much volume and I was thinking about a stock that has a much lower float and volume and that is a pump. This is a somewhat more legit stock so the same tricks don't apply. I originally had a more long bias at the open but wasn't really sure about it. While it would have been nice to be long I didn't really trust it so I don't mind missing out on it. When it got abveo vwap in the morning and dipped I thought about buying some but I still didn't believe it. Had I bought at $13 in the morning small size, just to note that it took a few attempts of not breaking down before it went higher. It really looked like it would go lower after a few test but it never did.
Other stocks:
NVCN: I should have know this was a rehash PR. Be on the lookout for that.
Things to remember:
1. Let the stock tell you what it's going to do and don't try to pick a top or bottom and give things enough room.
2. Be on the lookout for rehash PRs - scroll through news history.
3. You don't know how the stocks you are looking at/are in will play out or how the chart will look when everything is said and done - be prepared for anything.
4. Don't bother with the stupid little scalps when you try to get cute and see if it'll work - these just annoy you and don't play to your strengths.
5. Realize that there may be bigger volume later on (especially near the open) - volume should only be used when it is far and above any other volume bar during the day and not just when a candle is making bigger volume at the open (in most circumstances)
Monday, December 12, 2016
Trading Recap 12/12/16
Very small losing day. A couple of stupid trades but process-wise the day was decent. Improvements could be made still regarding not focusing on the money and PnL.
AKAO: I wasn't really sure how this would act so I just kept an open mind. These Phase III lower priced stocks can do different things. I saw bigger volume in the first few minutes and thought it was a stuff so I shorted it but while I was in it I thought it wasn't a good trade because of how REPH was and the fact that it didn't look like a good trade because it felt that it was just starting to go higher but I figured I would give it a shot. Process-wise this was a poor trade as I should have waited for more confirmation of anything at least but I did catch myself a little while in the trade but once I was in it I decided to see if it would work. I got stopped out and watched it go higher for most of the day. It did offer a nice consolidation pattern on low volume which is a good pattern but there was a constant seller in the 9.39 area. Even when he got eaten up it made me weary to try and go long because I was suspect of how real the move was and what was really going on. So the constant selling yet it getting bought up made me suspicious of it but I wasn't going to fight the trend. I put an order to short below a key support level but that never broke and while there was a seller in the 11.50-60 area I figured it would just get eaten up and continue higher, which is what happened but again with the constant selling I wasn't sure what to do. Later on, there was definitely a good seller in the 13.03 area so I tried shorting there and it worked for a scalp where I just kept lowering my stop because I didn't trust it. It then went higher anyway. So overall the lesson on these Phase III lower priced stocks is to be more bullish as with REPH and this and also wait for more confirmation on unknown news play like this for stuffs and shorting it then. Also know that even though there may be a constant seller, it doesn't mean that the stock can't eventually go higher when there are enough shorts to fuel the move.
FLO: I was looking for some failed followthrough momentum for a move back down due to the overdone aspect of the move Friday. When it broke $19 and popped back to it I gave it a shot and wanted to see what it would do. I gave it to the highs and it made a fake high then started coming off. It looked like it was just making a higher low so I took it off and reevaluated. I didn't want to be stuck with it if it wanted to go higher which it looked like it did and if it didn't I could get back in so that is what I chose to do. It did end up going back up and made a new high but that was the top. I let it chop around until it broke under $19. When it popped back to $19 I shorted it again. I should have done more size here as the risk was low and now that it was coming off later in the day it made it look a lot better. I had patience with it and let it go lower. I didn't really want to add on a breakdown just because it tends to pop right afterwards so I wanted to see any decent pop to add. It never really popped as it broke down under .80 and it did make new lows. I thought about adding there but didn't want to in case that low was going to be it. I wanted to see some lower highs in the .60s or below first but that never came. As I saw it had no followthrough to the downside I just moved my stop up which got me out. Lessons: In the morning, the 2min made it seem like $19 was peaking instead of it just being a flush through. But that is a little thing. It was good you gave it room and ended up taking a more reduced loss on it. I don't think it was necessary to hold it beyond that point where it was making a higher low. Shorting it when it peaked $19 was good. The only thing was to do it bigger. There really wasn't a spot I could have added that I was comfortable with.
OPHT: I saw some comments how their cash/share is $11 so this could be setup for a bounce. I kept an open mind and at the open it seemed like 8.86 was the support. I had a feeling that if it was going to go higher it would have to wash out any bounce buyers. It went to 8.85 and the bid starting absorbing a lot so I thought this was a good signal so I went in after it upticked a little. It went up a bit but it seemed so heavy still so I just put a breakeven stop that got me out. In reality I should have maybe just given it the full out but I guess I became unsure of it because even after the new fake low it was still heavy. It popped above $6 a couple of times but each time it got rejected although it looked bullish enough. Eventually it flushed lower so my thoughts were right on it. I became more short biased at this point on pops because everyone who was ever long the stock is underwater and it still stayed heavy throughout the whole process. I gave it a shot in the .80s a couple of times but figured that if it was going to go lower it would just fade after the retest. So when I would be up a few times I just put a breakeven stop. It did protect me and it did go a bit higher to retest $6 first. I knew if I got in I would have to give it more room just in case. So after it retested $6 it had some lower highs which I thought about shorting but didn't unfortunately. It did end up making new lows. It made a new low and then came back and that looked like that was it but then it faded even more. Lessons: The bounce attempt in the morning was worth it given the setup. The breakeven stops were meh. Sure it didn't work but I have to figure that I got a decent price and it was a low risk setup. If I'm unwilling to lose a little bit then what's the point? As for the shorts afterwards, they were worth a shot of course but the in and out with the breakeven stops were iffy. I guess I wasn't sure at that point still and should have done lesser size just in case. Once the lower highs were in though, it offered a good opportunity so I can't shun that.
CRC: I wasn't sure what direction at the open to play this and the oil names. They ended up fading but I wasn't confident enough to short them. I did see a decent stuff with big volume on CRC so I gave it a shot but when it looked like it was holding up I flipped long for the breakout and it worked but I moved my stop and it got me out and eventually went back lower. The process here so far was good. nothing to say. I took it off watch until later on it looked like it was ready to crack with a small consolidation underneath some support levels. I was aware of the low volume so I didn't give it much room. It ended up stopping me out and then going higher a bit before coming back down and making new lows. I think the small consolidation trade could have worked. I was too slow for the breakdown trade later on in the day (I didn't see it before when it came under vwap again).
ALXN: I was thinking about shorting it was it was consolidating under vwap but I didn't want to short breakdowns with the SSR on and the fact that it kept wicking up and down around the support before finally going lower. Plus it already had a big volume flush although it did go lower. I could have shorted pops but I wasn't really sure where to try.
Things to remember:
1. Lower priced Phase III stocks can be very good runners unless the data is shown to be BS.
2. Unless the news is complete BS and the company is known to be junk, wait for more confirmation before shorting. The stuffs etc out of the gate work the best on the most bullshit of companies.
3. Also know that even though there may be a constant seller, it doesn't mean that the stock can't eventually go higher when there are enough shorts to fuel the move.
AKAO: I wasn't really sure how this would act so I just kept an open mind. These Phase III lower priced stocks can do different things. I saw bigger volume in the first few minutes and thought it was a stuff so I shorted it but while I was in it I thought it wasn't a good trade because of how REPH was and the fact that it didn't look like a good trade because it felt that it was just starting to go higher but I figured I would give it a shot. Process-wise this was a poor trade as I should have waited for more confirmation of anything at least but I did catch myself a little while in the trade but once I was in it I decided to see if it would work. I got stopped out and watched it go higher for most of the day. It did offer a nice consolidation pattern on low volume which is a good pattern but there was a constant seller in the 9.39 area. Even when he got eaten up it made me weary to try and go long because I was suspect of how real the move was and what was really going on. So the constant selling yet it getting bought up made me suspicious of it but I wasn't going to fight the trend. I put an order to short below a key support level but that never broke and while there was a seller in the 11.50-60 area I figured it would just get eaten up and continue higher, which is what happened but again with the constant selling I wasn't sure what to do. Later on, there was definitely a good seller in the 13.03 area so I tried shorting there and it worked for a scalp where I just kept lowering my stop because I didn't trust it. It then went higher anyway. So overall the lesson on these Phase III lower priced stocks is to be more bullish as with REPH and this and also wait for more confirmation on unknown news play like this for stuffs and shorting it then. Also know that even though there may be a constant seller, it doesn't mean that the stock can't eventually go higher when there are enough shorts to fuel the move.
FLO: I was looking for some failed followthrough momentum for a move back down due to the overdone aspect of the move Friday. When it broke $19 and popped back to it I gave it a shot and wanted to see what it would do. I gave it to the highs and it made a fake high then started coming off. It looked like it was just making a higher low so I took it off and reevaluated. I didn't want to be stuck with it if it wanted to go higher which it looked like it did and if it didn't I could get back in so that is what I chose to do. It did end up going back up and made a new high but that was the top. I let it chop around until it broke under $19. When it popped back to $19 I shorted it again. I should have done more size here as the risk was low and now that it was coming off later in the day it made it look a lot better. I had patience with it and let it go lower. I didn't really want to add on a breakdown just because it tends to pop right afterwards so I wanted to see any decent pop to add. It never really popped as it broke down under .80 and it did make new lows. I thought about adding there but didn't want to in case that low was going to be it. I wanted to see some lower highs in the .60s or below first but that never came. As I saw it had no followthrough to the downside I just moved my stop up which got me out. Lessons: In the morning, the 2min made it seem like $19 was peaking instead of it just being a flush through. But that is a little thing. It was good you gave it room and ended up taking a more reduced loss on it. I don't think it was necessary to hold it beyond that point where it was making a higher low. Shorting it when it peaked $19 was good. The only thing was to do it bigger. There really wasn't a spot I could have added that I was comfortable with.
OPHT: I saw some comments how their cash/share is $11 so this could be setup for a bounce. I kept an open mind and at the open it seemed like 8.86 was the support. I had a feeling that if it was going to go higher it would have to wash out any bounce buyers. It went to 8.85 and the bid starting absorbing a lot so I thought this was a good signal so I went in after it upticked a little. It went up a bit but it seemed so heavy still so I just put a breakeven stop that got me out. In reality I should have maybe just given it the full out but I guess I became unsure of it because even after the new fake low it was still heavy. It popped above $6 a couple of times but each time it got rejected although it looked bullish enough. Eventually it flushed lower so my thoughts were right on it. I became more short biased at this point on pops because everyone who was ever long the stock is underwater and it still stayed heavy throughout the whole process. I gave it a shot in the .80s a couple of times but figured that if it was going to go lower it would just fade after the retest. So when I would be up a few times I just put a breakeven stop. It did protect me and it did go a bit higher to retest $6 first. I knew if I got in I would have to give it more room just in case. So after it retested $6 it had some lower highs which I thought about shorting but didn't unfortunately. It did end up making new lows. It made a new low and then came back and that looked like that was it but then it faded even more. Lessons: The bounce attempt in the morning was worth it given the setup. The breakeven stops were meh. Sure it didn't work but I have to figure that I got a decent price and it was a low risk setup. If I'm unwilling to lose a little bit then what's the point? As for the shorts afterwards, they were worth a shot of course but the in and out with the breakeven stops were iffy. I guess I wasn't sure at that point still and should have done lesser size just in case. Once the lower highs were in though, it offered a good opportunity so I can't shun that.
CRC: I wasn't sure what direction at the open to play this and the oil names. They ended up fading but I wasn't confident enough to short them. I did see a decent stuff with big volume on CRC so I gave it a shot but when it looked like it was holding up I flipped long for the breakout and it worked but I moved my stop and it got me out and eventually went back lower. The process here so far was good. nothing to say. I took it off watch until later on it looked like it was ready to crack with a small consolidation underneath some support levels. I was aware of the low volume so I didn't give it much room. It ended up stopping me out and then going higher a bit before coming back down and making new lows. I think the small consolidation trade could have worked. I was too slow for the breakdown trade later on in the day (I didn't see it before when it came under vwap again).
ALXN: I was thinking about shorting it was it was consolidating under vwap but I didn't want to short breakdowns with the SSR on and the fact that it kept wicking up and down around the support before finally going lower. Plus it already had a big volume flush although it did go lower. I could have shorted pops but I wasn't really sure where to try.
Things to remember:
1. Lower priced Phase III stocks can be very good runners unless the data is shown to be BS.
2. Unless the news is complete BS and the company is known to be junk, wait for more confirmation before shorting. The stuffs etc out of the gate work the best on the most bullshit of companies.
3. Also know that even though there may be a constant seller, it doesn't mean that the stock can't eventually go higher when there are enough shorts to fuel the move.
Saturday, December 10, 2016
Trading Recap 12/9/16
I finally broke the Friday curse by having a positive day on Friday. Overall I would say Friday was a good process day.
LULU: I had this on watch for a 2nd day play. I still thought that the move was way overdone and that it could continue to get sold off. I saw that it was holding over/under $68.80- $69 so if it got below it I wanted to short. I saw at the open it went lower and so I looked for a pop to enter. I thought I would just choose vwap as a good spot if it got there. Obviously I wasn't using vwap as a basis as to whether to get in or not but as far as an entry goes, I thought it was decent. So I got in but then I remembered how I used to play these vwap touches for 2nd day plays and they would never work because it turned out to be a weak open r/g. But I was confident in my thesis and there was also a lot of resistance now from the $69ish level from before so that was working in my favor. Overall I gave it a shot because of the above but stayed alert in case. It ticked down a little but then it was around .58 level that the shares just started getting absorbed on the bid. It wouldn't get below it so with that and the possibility that this could just be a weak open I decided to can the trade with a breakeven stop that got hit and got me out for flat. This was a good call as it went up a point afterwards. I figured that if it did end up fading I could get in on pops along the way. No real lesson here other than to realize that getting out for breakeven worked this time but at times that might not have been the right move. Also realize that the real level was $69 but either way at the time it felt that it was definitely going higher so it was a good process call to make. If I still felt it was a short at the very least I could have gotten a better price with the way things seemed.
BIIB: The gap up on Phase I news seemed like a bit much although it was only up 5% but I thought that it could fade off still especially with the news being released yesterday and there was already a reaction. I saw it was under vwap in the morning and that vwap also coincided with some resistance from premarket so I thought around there would be a good entry. My risk was to above $304 essentially. I had more size than I usually would so if the exact resistance didn't hold and it went above vwap then I would size down which is what I did. I then let the rest go to above $304 which also stopped me out. At the time though I thought I had made a mistake because it went exactly to my stop out price and got me out on a spray above. I thought I gave it enough room but I guess not. So I thought I made a mistake but it did eventually move higher. However, with my reduced size at that point I perhaps should have given it more wiggle room in case. Even though that would have ended up with me taking a slightly bigger loss, process wise it's better. It did flush a bit back down which got me thinking I should try it again but I decided to wait and see if it was just a dip or not. If it wasn't I can short it on pops later or some other setup. It did make a new fake high and that was the top. Eventually it came back down under vwap and looking back at the pattern it looked nice because it was now peaking the prior support and it made a fake high so I should have tried it on a pop to 304.50s but decided against it. Later on it was consolidating under the $301 major level from before and it looked like UHS from yesterday before it took a big dive so I shorted again with a risk above the $301. It ended up making new lows at that time but it was holding up so I moved my stop down and that got hit. It eventually went back to my price and then higher so I thought the play was over because if it wanted to go lower then it would have done it then. Normally that probably is the case but not this time... I saw it go lower a little bit back to where I covered it but I didn't think anything of it. I thought it would just bounce around but instead it just had a fullon breakdown way past any level I thought it could go to. I was really surprised because I remember BLUE had gapped up even more and didn't even go red but I think this was a special case of the data being leaked and then it just returning back to where it came from. My thought process as it was flushing was that it would go to $294ish which is where I had my original target in mind based on the chart and the levels from yesterday. It went lower and I saw it got bought back up on good volume so I thought that was it but I saw the $290 level was there. I thought about shorting a breakdown of that level but it was right near where the r/g would be so I thought it would find some support there but nope. This was really a special case as I mentioned before where the data was leaked before and then it gapped up anyway. I'll keep that in mind going forward if the same situation occurs. Other than that, I'm not a big fan of the way I have been using stops whereas I like to give things over/under room in case. It's hit or miss - sometimes it saves you and sometimes it doesn't. And also be on the lookout for patterns like when it repeaked the prior resistance again after making a fake high. You noticed it but didn't take it which was a mistake. And I guess if a stock has that inverted H&S look and breaks below the two lows anyway then short it - although again this could be a special scenario.
FNSR: I wasn't sure what to do with this and wanted to see how it would react out of the gate. I was more bullish though with the decent guidance earnings and it was making new 52s. If it stayed above $36.50 that would be a bullish sign for me to get in. But of course it didn't do that and instead tanked. There was a breakdown/vwap pop trade there on the short side but as I mentioned I wasn't necessarily looking to short it. At this point it was just dropping pretty quickly so I thought it was just going to be one of those that the gap gets sold into. I looked for a bounce entry because I still thought the guidance was ok and I saw a nice bid soaking at 33.85 so I went long at .90 with my first target being vwap and then I would keep the rest in case it wanted to make a bigger bounce. But as with ULTA, its bounce was muted. I was up 40 cents or so but I figured I could get a bit more out of it at least but I just stopped out for flat because I saw it was going back down and I was looking for more immediate followthrough. It made a new low but not by much and it was getting bought up in the .60s range so I went long again at .75 for a bounce to vwap but I put my stop at breakeven and got hit. The trade, although it took a while would have worked. That's the bad part of always going scratch I guess. My risk was definitely if it made new lows but I guess in this case I was being too protective. It's 50/50 I suppose. It saved me on LULU but hurt me here. This type of trade was a bit more reliable than LULU.
ATH: IPO stock that I traded twice. First time I saw bid absorbs going into a whole # so I tried that but that didn't work. It was iffy on the level 2 with a lot of bids and offers absorbing but no real moves because of it. Later on in the day though I saw it was trending higher and looked good for a breakout so I went long the breakout and I didn't give it much room because I figured this is either going to work right away or it's not as it's an IPO breakout play. I never got stopped out but I did put my offer at 45.45 in case it sprayed up 50 cents or so. It went above $45 and just sprayed close to $1 and then came right back down and faded off so I got a nice fill on it. Nothing really to learn here except to have your orders in place just in case.
Things to remember:
1. Keep the BIIB special scenario in mind for the future in the rare chance that happens again.
2. Always be on the lookout for patterns to take advantage of and take them.
LULU: I had this on watch for a 2nd day play. I still thought that the move was way overdone and that it could continue to get sold off. I saw that it was holding over/under $68.80- $69 so if it got below it I wanted to short. I saw at the open it went lower and so I looked for a pop to enter. I thought I would just choose vwap as a good spot if it got there. Obviously I wasn't using vwap as a basis as to whether to get in or not but as far as an entry goes, I thought it was decent. So I got in but then I remembered how I used to play these vwap touches for 2nd day plays and they would never work because it turned out to be a weak open r/g. But I was confident in my thesis and there was also a lot of resistance now from the $69ish level from before so that was working in my favor. Overall I gave it a shot because of the above but stayed alert in case. It ticked down a little but then it was around .58 level that the shares just started getting absorbed on the bid. It wouldn't get below it so with that and the possibility that this could just be a weak open I decided to can the trade with a breakeven stop that got hit and got me out for flat. This was a good call as it went up a point afterwards. I figured that if it did end up fading I could get in on pops along the way. No real lesson here other than to realize that getting out for breakeven worked this time but at times that might not have been the right move. Also realize that the real level was $69 but either way at the time it felt that it was definitely going higher so it was a good process call to make. If I still felt it was a short at the very least I could have gotten a better price with the way things seemed.
BIIB: The gap up on Phase I news seemed like a bit much although it was only up 5% but I thought that it could fade off still especially with the news being released yesterday and there was already a reaction. I saw it was under vwap in the morning and that vwap also coincided with some resistance from premarket so I thought around there would be a good entry. My risk was to above $304 essentially. I had more size than I usually would so if the exact resistance didn't hold and it went above vwap then I would size down which is what I did. I then let the rest go to above $304 which also stopped me out. At the time though I thought I had made a mistake because it went exactly to my stop out price and got me out on a spray above. I thought I gave it enough room but I guess not. So I thought I made a mistake but it did eventually move higher. However, with my reduced size at that point I perhaps should have given it more wiggle room in case. Even though that would have ended up with me taking a slightly bigger loss, process wise it's better. It did flush a bit back down which got me thinking I should try it again but I decided to wait and see if it was just a dip or not. If it wasn't I can short it on pops later or some other setup. It did make a new fake high and that was the top. Eventually it came back down under vwap and looking back at the pattern it looked nice because it was now peaking the prior support and it made a fake high so I should have tried it on a pop to 304.50s but decided against it. Later on it was consolidating under the $301 major level from before and it looked like UHS from yesterday before it took a big dive so I shorted again with a risk above the $301. It ended up making new lows at that time but it was holding up so I moved my stop down and that got hit. It eventually went back to my price and then higher so I thought the play was over because if it wanted to go lower then it would have done it then. Normally that probably is the case but not this time... I saw it go lower a little bit back to where I covered it but I didn't think anything of it. I thought it would just bounce around but instead it just had a fullon breakdown way past any level I thought it could go to. I was really surprised because I remember BLUE had gapped up even more and didn't even go red but I think this was a special case of the data being leaked and then it just returning back to where it came from. My thought process as it was flushing was that it would go to $294ish which is where I had my original target in mind based on the chart and the levels from yesterday. It went lower and I saw it got bought back up on good volume so I thought that was it but I saw the $290 level was there. I thought about shorting a breakdown of that level but it was right near where the r/g would be so I thought it would find some support there but nope. This was really a special case as I mentioned before where the data was leaked before and then it gapped up anyway. I'll keep that in mind going forward if the same situation occurs. Other than that, I'm not a big fan of the way I have been using stops whereas I like to give things over/under room in case. It's hit or miss - sometimes it saves you and sometimes it doesn't. And also be on the lookout for patterns like when it repeaked the prior resistance again after making a fake high. You noticed it but didn't take it which was a mistake. And I guess if a stock has that inverted H&S look and breaks below the two lows anyway then short it - although again this could be a special scenario.
FNSR: I wasn't sure what to do with this and wanted to see how it would react out of the gate. I was more bullish though with the decent guidance earnings and it was making new 52s. If it stayed above $36.50 that would be a bullish sign for me to get in. But of course it didn't do that and instead tanked. There was a breakdown/vwap pop trade there on the short side but as I mentioned I wasn't necessarily looking to short it. At this point it was just dropping pretty quickly so I thought it was just going to be one of those that the gap gets sold into. I looked for a bounce entry because I still thought the guidance was ok and I saw a nice bid soaking at 33.85 so I went long at .90 with my first target being vwap and then I would keep the rest in case it wanted to make a bigger bounce. But as with ULTA, its bounce was muted. I was up 40 cents or so but I figured I could get a bit more out of it at least but I just stopped out for flat because I saw it was going back down and I was looking for more immediate followthrough. It made a new low but not by much and it was getting bought up in the .60s range so I went long again at .75 for a bounce to vwap but I put my stop at breakeven and got hit. The trade, although it took a while would have worked. That's the bad part of always going scratch I guess. My risk was definitely if it made new lows but I guess in this case I was being too protective. It's 50/50 I suppose. It saved me on LULU but hurt me here. This type of trade was a bit more reliable than LULU.
ATH: IPO stock that I traded twice. First time I saw bid absorbs going into a whole # so I tried that but that didn't work. It was iffy on the level 2 with a lot of bids and offers absorbing but no real moves because of it. Later on in the day though I saw it was trending higher and looked good for a breakout so I went long the breakout and I didn't give it much room because I figured this is either going to work right away or it's not as it's an IPO breakout play. I never got stopped out but I did put my offer at 45.45 in case it sprayed up 50 cents or so. It went above $45 and just sprayed close to $1 and then came right back down and faded off so I got a nice fill on it. Nothing really to learn here except to have your orders in place just in case.
Things to remember:
1. Keep the BIIB special scenario in mind for the future in the rare chance that happens again.
2. Always be on the lookout for patterns to take advantage of and take them.
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