Today was a slightly profitable day that could have been a lot more which sounds familiar. I am definitely getting tired of saying that though. I've learned a lot about what not to do and what things I shouldn't be doing but I feel it is time to start pressing on the specific setups that I feel are good. I believe the biggest thing hampering my progress is my inability to discern market prices as neither positive nor negative. I am associating my emotions with the movement of a stock and thus my defense systems kick in to save me from not wanting to experience any negative emotions. I tend to do this because I don't fully accept the risk of being in a position. Further, I believe this comes from not having an exact plan and being ok with the results. This means if I say my stop is over/under then I must truly mean it and if I say I will be patient and let it test around then anything that happens from that point forward is what I have to accept. If I have a stop in place for a particular trade then I have to be 100% ok with that money being gone so that I don't interpret the market as a negative influence. Also, when I place a trade there must be no expectation. I must accept that the money I am willing to risk is already gone and be content with that.
YHOO: It was not on my radar until the news hit about VZ. I did not play it then although I was pretty short biased but when I saw that it would not make new lows I thought that everyone must be thinking the same thing and that perhaps no one is really selling too much because the chances of them actually backing away are small. It did end up rebounding but my plan was to short when it got to resistance/vwap but I had a computer issue at the time and had to do something else so I didn't try it but I think I could have eventually had gotten in and that was just an excuse because of some of the things above. It hit vwap again but I didn't trade it then either which also would have worked. Eventually it broke below lows and looked like it was going to have a steady fade so I kind of chased short but smaller size and was going to give it proper room. It started trickling lower and it appeared very heavy on the level 2 in a meaningful way so when it was heavy below where I shorted I added more and gave it a tight stop to where my first entry was/ above where the offers kept absorbing. I held it for a while while it was consolidating until it broke .50 for real and then it just faded into the close. It was a good trade overall the only thing to note is the lack of shorting it at vwap like I wanted to and which would have resulted in much greater profits than my trade. Also, while I was in the trade I was letting every tick affect me. It shouldn't be like that. I have my target and my stop and that is it.
LLY: I had this on watch due to the increased guidance for next year. I have seen these fade from the open then get bought back up so that is potentially what I was looking for. It did drop a bit and when it retested the 69.70 area I thought about getting in but was too scared not to (this goes back to the above). It ended up going back above vwap where I thought about buying a dip or at least when it looked like it was going to go higher but didn't do it when it looked like it was going higher because it was lull and I didn't want to be buying on a break higher in case it was a fake out. It turned out that would have been a good buy but process wise that is fine because I rather not get faked out like that. The trade I actually ended up doing was when it was consolidating just under HOD and looked very good for a breakout so I went long on the breakout and my target was .70 and it almost got there but never did. I trailed my stop up and it got hit. I thought I was wicked out but it ended up fading anyway. Lesson: The pattern of these guidance plays either way tends to go in the opposite direction first then the direction of the gap later on. Also, the intro stuff relates to here as well.
DUST: I basically tried to go long on a breakout but with smaller size and it worked for a bit but I just kept upping my stop which got me out. It went way below the breakout spot. I will look at GDX/GDM as guides in the future vs. just DUST. Much easier to look at
NVDA: I tried a sort of random trade where I made what was happening fit into a setup I know. I took a small loss on it and now I know not to do that since it went higher after going long for a breakout. That is what happens when you use random points for entries and stops. Later on I went long on a flag breakout and it worked well but as I have said before the best flags just go and don't retest and I saw some selling at the HOD area at the time so I increased my stop and that got out for a slight profit. Lesson: no random entries and exits.
DCIX: Only thing to note is that these dead cat bounces can still fade intraday at least for a scalp/decent move and also don't fight it when it's going higher at EOD. Also realize the difference between something being pumped and shares being sold vs. just a sympathy play in a sector like this. I was incorrectly playing this like someone was dumping shares but that's not the case. It's just momo - so make the distinction here and also on good news vs pump news.
Things to remember:
1. What was said in the intro
2. These dead cat bounces can still fade intraday at least for a scalp/decent
move and also don't fight it when it's going higher at EOD
3. Realize the difference between something being pumped and shares being sold vs. just a sympathy play in a sector like this.
4. No random entries and exits on these plays.
5. Look at GDX/GDM
6. The pattern of these guidance plays either way tends to go in the
opposite direction first then the direction of the gap later on.
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