Interesting day with my PnL with my PnL starting off rather poorly but making a really nice comeback but then a slight pullback into the close. Still green for the day. Biggest takeaway however is still the need to disconnect from the money. I am getting much closer to that. Money doesn't matter. Just think about this as a fun game. And as I mentioned on a prior blog post, if you are down don't look to make it all back. Just do one good trade after another with no concern as to the PnL.
PLAY: I had the right idea on the stock but poor execution ended up with me taking a loss in it. I was long biased for the most part because of the really blowout earnings and it was at all time highs. I did have a worry that it might get sold into in case of profit taking. At the open it shot up then came back down to premkt support levels. Instead of going long here and seeing if it would hold I shorted because I saw a refreshing offer at $54. It didn't hold of course so I got out for a loss. I shorted because after I saw the refreshing offer and the way that it stuffed at the open I thought it could get sold into. I could say that I should have just bought $54 anyway or when it broke above it but at the time shorting it at the time I did along with the stuff and refreshing offers seemed to have fulfilled the narrative that it was getting sold into. It's tough to say whether or not that was right thing to do but I didn't give the short much room because I knew it could go higher still and I was just playing it until it picked a direction. $54 ended up being a good buy spot because it started climbing above vwap. I bought the $55 breakout but it failed to hold $55 at that time so I stopped out. $55 wasn't really a good level looking back so it is clear why it didn't work perfectly. Buying at vwap would have worked but at that time, vwap shouldn't really matter. It was more the prior resistance from before acting as support which I should have saw and put a bid in for. I left it alone after getting stopped out but it did end up climbing higher the rest of the day. Overall it was a wicky stock and not a good stock for breakouts. Dips had to be bought. Lesson: Whatever happens right at the open doesn't indicate what will happen at the rest of the day. So if you like something in a situation like this at a certain level then you should still take it. Certain stocks you have to give more room for.
TXMD: Definitely a frustrating play on this. I shorted it after it came off a bit at the open and was holding under $7. It was under premkt support and $7 was the big level from the day before. My plan was to give it to vwap over/under. It went through it though and went a bit higher than I thought it would. Unfortunately I guess I panic covered at the top (the exact top) and from there it just fell and made new lows. I then tried it again later on thinking it would retest 6.50 but it just ended up popping up and bouncing from there so I took another loss. The second trade might have been stupid (I was following the stair step pattern down and figured it would retest $6.50 from yesterday at least. The first trade warrants some discussion though. I believe that since I didn't know at the time whether I was shorting on the way up for a potential lower high or if it would just fade there I should have done lesser size and then added in. I should have noted more of the premkt levels from before and also saw the HOD was a few cents away so might as well give it some extra room in case. So lesson: When unsure just do less size and you can always scale in from there. Also, make a note of premkt levels more and know where HOD is.
WDC: I was potentially more long biased on this and was looking to buy at support. I didn't buy it at support due to fear at the open which was good for a point move. Then later on I did buy it right before it made new lows but it ended up being a fake low. I held onto it and gave it to .50s over/under. It started grinding towards vwap and at this time I was down from PLAY and TXMD a bit so I just wanted to take profit in case it went back down but this was an emotional decision. My original target was at the high end of the range. It got there and eventually made new highs and kept grinding the entire day. Selling there was a mistake. Lesson: Don't go off of PnL and treat each trade as its own.
BLUE: With the price being under the offering I became more short biased. I missed the clear vwap/premkt support short trade at the open. I remember SRPT did something similar as well. So I should have been paying more attention to that. Unfortunately it wasn't on my main screen so I didn't see it. I did short it when it got to vwap and shares absorbing on the offer. I ended up covering way too early just because I was afraid of turning it into a loser when I was already down from the other stocks. Bad! Later on I shorted it as it was holding below the lows for the day and shares were absorbing quite a bit at that level which made me think people who bought the offering wanted to get out. I shorted then and then when it broke under $71 I added in bigger size and it did come off a bit. I wanted to be patient because I thought this could really get going lower (that turned out to be near the bottom). But to protect profits I put a stop a bit higher that got me out. It is iffy as to whether this was the right idea or not. It ended up working in this scenario. This stuff really depends and sometimes it works and sometimes it doesn't. The mistake later on was not reshorting at vwap for an easy trade. I didn't do it out of fear which is stupid. Lesson: Good thing for sizing in. Bad for letting other trades affect this one and not reshorting when the opportunity was there.
SPY: Just a trade where I thought it would pullback after the parabolic move up and the huge volume. It didn't work so I stopped out for a tiny loss. It was worth a shot although on the daily timeframe it has clearly broken out so I should have taken that into account more so.
UHS: A lot of trades in this but it was a lot of fun to trade it. Too many ins and outs to go over but basically the lessons are: when in the heat of the moment like this make sure to look for spots to add in for a big win like this offered, after the down move is over don't short share absorbs because they will most likely breakout above it. Be quick with covers/sells although this was really tough with this stock.
Other stocks:
MYL and ALR: Both looked for a bounce since the news didn't seem bad. For MYL when it started coming off hard I took it off radar but I should have still looked at it more intently for a nice higher low pattern to get long and then potentially add to it. For ALR the news seemed like a rehash so it was worth a bounce attempt when I saw it having a higher low.
Things to remember:
1. Biggest takeaway however is still the need to disconnect from the money.
I am getting much closer to that. Money doesn't matter. Just think
about this as a fun game. Just do one good trade after another with no concern as to the PnL.
2. Whatever happens right at the open doesn't indicate what will happen at
the rest of the day. So if you like something in a situation like this
at a certain level then you should still take it.
3. When unsure just do less size and you can always scale in from there.
Also, make a note of premkt levels more and know where HOD is.
4. Take into account the bigger timeframe.
5. Always be on the lookout for patterns later in the day like in the MYL example.
No comments:
Post a Comment