Today was a pretty boring day overall. I only did two trades and was essentially flat today. There were a couple of low-conviction scalp ideas that would have worked but overall nothing really perked my interest.
OPTT: I had this on watch to see how it would react. I was definitely short biased on this based on the news and the stock being a known turd. I had a feeling it was just a PR to sell more stock. At the open I was thinking about shorting it because it looked like it was done but it held up and then went higher and went to the premarket highs and passed it by a bit. I thought about shorting it here as it could be just a fake move as usual and I ended up being right on that but honestly I'm not sure why I didn't. I was about to put a stop short in if it started to fade off from that level but didn't for some reason. Most likely it was fear because I thought it could ramp higher because I saw strong L2 action. I think I should have tried it though because everything else about it seemed right in line as usual and the level 2 action wasn't crazy or anything like that. I think I psyched myself out. So that is a mistake - I have to remember to think in probabilities in order to negate any feelings of losing $ or being wrong. Anyway, what I ended up doing was shorting when it went to vwap for a move to almost fill the gap in the 3.30s. I figured this was the definite backside of the move. It did go lower but .60s were defending pretty well so I remember sizing down into that. But then when I saw .60s would break I put a short stop order for bigger size in order to capture a flush. I moved my stop to breakeven and from there it just sort of hanged around so I got out before it hit my stop. It ended up consolidating a bit before going lower much later in the day. So I ended up with a small profit on that. Later on in the day I heard it was being pumped up by a chat so I shorted it but it was holding up so I put a tight stop which got triggered and that was it. It did go higher later. As I said before, these late day moves almost never work but I thought this time it could be ok because it was a pump but I will just write these late day moves of completely. The only other lesson here is to again think in probabilities. It was nice that I sized in, it just didn't work on my timeframe.
UA: I tried going long for a breakout after hearing about the news but the breakout looked like it was failing so I got out for a tiny tiny loss. This was good. I looked into the news later on and saw that it wasn't as good as I thought so while the stock setup again for another potential move, I didn't get in again because I knew it wouldn't have any followthrough and this was correct. No lesson here I guess other than to fully understand the news.
Things to remember:
1. Probabilities!
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