Today was a very decent day that I pulled together. Some things prevented it from being even better but that's alright. The only thing I didn't like was that I became too results oriented and cared about my results/profits when I should just be focusing on the process and if the trades were good or not. I have to continue to be in a probabilities' mindset and trust that in the long run things will work out. Mistakes are ok to make and shouldn't be seen as disastrous (which I have worked on a lot and am getting there). Expectations should be muted and I must fully accept the risk each time I enter a trade. Positive self talk and staying in the present will help me with these.
EXPR: I saw the very bad guidance and the fact that it was gapping below any support. It looked like a good candidate for continued fade. I knew that this was a tricky stock to trade and needed to short pops only based on evidence from last time on trading it. So it started ticking lower at the open below some premkt support which ended up being a big trap and ripped up. I saw it going to the premkt high area which I thought was a good place to start in. I wanted to leave room in case it went to $12 so I went in with 50 shares and I told myself I would add at $12 if need be. Where I shorted ended up being near the top so when it got under vwap and the offers were absorbing, I added in more. I thought about adding more and putting a stop above the absorbing offer but I chose not to because as I have seen in the past, and this is what happened here as well, it goes a bit past where it absorbed then stops and reverses in your direction. I also thought about putting a breakeven stop but I didn't do that because even if it went higher above vwap a bit, I was confident in it. I didn't do more shares in case it did go higher to form a potential lower high. I knew this had the potential to be a wippy stock so I wanted to stay smaller. Once it cracked under I covered some just incase. It was nearing all time lows and I didn't think it would crack under it so I didn't know how much lower it could go. It popped up a bit but I was hesitant in adding again since I didn't feel it really peaked the main support but it did end up going lower and I covered it where it last printed at the low in premkt. It then consolidated and went lower but it was a slow fade and wasn't so convincing so I left it alone afterwards. Overall great trade with no real complaints.
BLUE: My first thought going into it was short it because this was only Phase I news and gap ups like this are usually for Phase III. It was also gapping right into resistance as well so I thought it would be a good play but I wasn't opposed to going long if it setup that way. I let it play out in the morning. It spiked up into some resistance but I didn't know at this point what would happen so I just watched. Then it started fading off and I got the impression that spike was a fake move. I saw 73.50 was an important level so I put a stop below to try and short it. I put my bid where I thought it would flush to right away for a scalp but what happened was I almost got filled but it didn't reach my bid on the initial flush and then it came back above where I shorted it for a little which triggered my stop. Then it went lower. So lesson #1 here is to give things more room on these types of plays because they do go back above sometimes. 20-30 cents above the price seems to be enough in most cases like this - if it was enough on a stock like this that moved a lot it should be for other stocks. Another lesson was to potentially be in big picture mode instead of scalp mode. I was in scalp mode because it was moving so much and I thought it would provide other shorts along the way and plus the range was wide so each time I was trying to get a point move. It ended up forming another base that I shorted and it missed my immediate bid again by a few cents and then came back to my entry. I was a little worried but then it got back under the next whole # so I put a stop at a random spot above the whole # if it got back above. It did and I got out for a very slight scalp and then it proceeded to fade even more. So learning my lessons from the first two times I tried it a third time and the third time was a charm. I gave it more room and respected that it would move a lot and was patient with my bid that eventually got filled. So overall the lesson here is to give these more room and just let it play out. Also have a bigger picture in mind because had I kept adding on each base break I would have racked up a really huge profit.
NVDA: Just a slight trade that was literally a second. After missing the entire move up which I will talk about after, I saw this big bid that kept tracking it up and so finally I decided to buy in front of it and put a stop below it but I knew it wouldn't work mostly and I risked very very tiny on it to see because it was a major chase on the chart. But that's whatever. What is more important is not playing the true bounce. This setup a lot cleaner than the other tech stocks that were also fading at the same time. This had a huge distinctive volume candle on the flush below $85 that could have been scooped. My thought process was this doesn't have to be it, big volume doesn't mean the move is over. But again, I have to think in probabilities! That is key. I could have tried to get some around $84.80 and give it to .50 just in case it had that extra small leg lower. It had a very nice pattern etc so it was worth a shot. I even predicted we would shake out some people and double dip to $85 or slightly below which we did to shake out some people and then it would go up which is exactly what happened. Overall, the lesson here is to just think in probabilities and know that the edge is in your favor. Don't equate past experiences with the current opportunity at hand.
SM: Just tried a breakout when oil names looked like they would go higher and SM had a very good pattern. It worked for a little but never reached my first profit target area and I just took it off when it had no followthrough and it was clearly a trap. It was worth a shot for sure and I gave it enough room so it's ok. Nothing to mention here.
Other stocks:
OAS/CRC/DG: Essentially the things to learn from these stocks is if they consolidate at higher/lower key levels during midday they are almost always a good long/short then in these scenarios. OAS was consolidated below key intraday support and then went red. CRC and DG were also good longs as they got bought back up after being lower in the morning.
Things to remember/work on:
1. Work on the process and don't worry about the results. You can't change what the market does but you can change your attitude/expectations/trades.
2. THINK IN PROBABILITIES!
3. No expecations
4. Stay in the present and have positive self talk
5. Have a bigger picture in mind some of the time (balance with taking profits)
6. Give these breakout/down trades 20-30 cents (price of stock pending)
7. Don't equate past experiences with the current situation
8. Stocks holding above/below key areas intraday are good longs/shorts as mentioned above.
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