Trading Recap 10/22/15

Well today was another winner for me (I'm so used to saying loser in this opening sentence that it feels weird). This would make the first time I had two winning trades in a row, I believe. Kind of sad yet good at the same time. I am glad how I just went for the trade though. It was a setup I have seen time and time again and knew others wouldn't be watching so it wouldn't become crowded. That allowed me to add in on instinct. What I mean by that is I knew deep down that this was a great setup and that I have seen how this plays out most likely so I added without thinking about having any BS "confirmation" etc.

White arrow is entry followed by exit.

CANF: I saw this gapping up but on low volume so I put this on the backburner. However, at the open I saw that morning stuff candle that I have seen time and time again and knew this was a good setup. I said this looks great and I went right for it with risk on $4 over/under. I didn't have the best entry at $3.85 but I wanted to get in there. It went slightly against me but came right back down and I knew it was over so I added again at $3.85, something I have never done before and it made nLODs and from there I waited and made sure $3.80s didn't reclaim. I had a feeling this would be an all day fade so I tried to be patient for the $3.70s crack but it looked like it reclaimed after flushing to $3.68 and coming back. I wanted to hold it for the rest of the day as long as $3.80s didn't reclaim but I had class to go to and didn't want to worry about it and rather take the win, plus the volume was shit. I covered at $3.74 so I got a small chunk of it but at this point profit is profit. Going for the small wins, even starting with 100 shares and not caring about how much money I make, only that I am profitable seems to have helped a lot with my trading. I hope to continue the momentum I have going forward. The small wins with consistency will add up over time.

RLYP: I was thinking of shorting this for a continuing fade but went to CANF instead since it seemed like that no brainer trade. Shorting would not have worked unless you took a quick scalp. In this case, the drop might have actually been overdone since it faded around 50% from the premarket highs. With CEMP it faded around 1/3 so perhaps a good rule on these is if it already fades 50% from the prior highs, it might be done for now and you can either avoid it or try long if a setup shows up.

VRX: I wanted to put this note here as a reminder as something to remember going forward. Nate had a great trade thesis on this and it worked out fantastic. Citron was supposed to appear on Bloomberg and Nate believed that many sold for fear of what would be said in the interview. Most likely, he correctly assumed, that nothing new would be revealed and from knowing how Citron works that is a fair assessment since he usually repeats the original evidence and adds nothing afterwards. He went long dips in hopes of getting a rebound to $105 as long as nothing new was revealed. Nothing new was revealed and a very nice bounce commenced.

Things to work on:

1. Nothing for the CANF trade. Maybe I could have waited for a pop which I wanted initially but it looked like a nice all day fader so I was ok with going in and chasing a little. I added after it popped and it looked to fade more so I think that was ok.
2. Track these gap downs even more and see about the 50% rule.
3. Note the VRX scenario for future reference. 

Trading Recap 10/16/15

There wasn't too much today although there was opportunity that I didn't take. I'll go through what I was looking at during the day.

WYNN: This is the only one that I was actually thinking of going with and I am glad I didn't since I might have taken a loss on it. I saw it was gapping down and it had been overextended on the daily for a bit. At the open I saw the parabolic to the premarket resistance where I was going to short but decided against it. It went lower for a bit but then came right back and broke HOD. I was looking for the premarket resistance to act as resistance again but it acted as support and went back up the rest of the day.

ZINC: I had this on watch for failed follow through. I had it on watch at the open as one of my main plays to be on the lookout for. I saw it having failed follow through and thought about shorting but it felt like chasing. There was a nice pop I could have shorted but I missed the entry and I never got any pops from there since it kept fading. I should have looked at yesterday's afternoon support level and shorted once that broke. That would have been a clear trigger for me to enter and a low risk stop at g/r or HODs.

OREX: This might have been the best opportunity I saw today. I saw it on the highest gainers list and I saw it also up yesterday so it had a nice setup for a short. I saw a nice stuff at around 10AM and wanted it to have a lower high before I went in but I never got that chance. I saw it when it was around $3.25 with HOD of $3.37. I wanted it to go to the low $3.30s again for an entry, otherwise I thought I would be chasing. In reality, it's not really a chase at that point even though it's not a top tick entry. I have to remember when I see a stuff and overall setup like this, I have to take it even if it's not a perfect entry. I could have added on a lower high if it came with risk to HOD.

KERX: I saw this on the highest gainers list and saw it going parabolic. I looked at the daily chart and it didn't really excite me. I saw a higher low on the daily and the chart has been beaten up and it wasn't up yesterday as well like OREX was. I guess intraday that matters less but I didn't like the setup. I saw the lower high form which would have been my entry had I taken it but I decided against it due to the reasons above. It would have been a good scalp but no big deal. I am more disappointed in not taking OREX than this.

CEMP: I wasn't watching this today at all after the gap down since I figured it was down enough but I guess not. Even though it was good news the market took it negatively and that is all that matters. When a stock gaps down on news like this then there it is possible it can go lower provided the stock tells you it will go lower (lower highs/base breaks/etc). This is in hindsight but I'm not sure if I would have traded it due to my account. I wouldn't have shorted it right at the open when it popped and there would be too much risk shorting nLODs (failed follow through), although that would have worked fine.

CDZI: I also this on the highest gainers list but saw the daily and it looked beat so that was automatically a negative. I saw a HOD rejection but it wasn't too convincing so I didn't really look at it. It ended up being a nice short but it wasn't the best and the volume sucked afterwards too.

VTL: I wanted to short this on any pops. At the open it faded and I thought I missed my chance but it came back holding higher lows which got me disinterested in it. It went to 6.90 before having some lower highs where I thought about shorting but had I done so I probably would have taken it off for flat since it faded a little but then came back and held higher lows and grinding.

TRIP/SNDK: I saw Nate tweeted about TRIP/SNDK red/green rally trades and so I wanted to make a note of this going forward. I believe he was talking in reference to FPRX which I had on watch but didn't know what to do with it. It did have a nice ABCD for the r/g reversal. The volume was kind of shitty in the morning which also got me to take my eye off it. This isn't a "new" type of trade in particular since it's just a r/g type of play but playing it on stocks that gap up and hold the prior day is somewhat new. I have definitely seen this before with DYAX and others. I am putting the TRIP and FNDK charts here for future reference.

Things to work on:

1. Remember the new r/g play listed above like with TRIP and SNDK.
2. When everything is lined up like it was for OREX with the stuff, just take the trade even if the entry isn't top ticked.
3. On stocks like CEMP that gap down on news (even good news), the market is reacting to the way it sees things. Now that I think about, rarely does a stock rebound or go lower when a move is "overdone" on these news plays. Maybe later on but the market reacts accordingly and how it sees fit. If a stock gaps down, chances are it can continue going lower. Obviously if a stock gaps down after being down multiple days in a row, you would want to go long washouts but that is completely separate from this type of Day 1 trade.
4. On failed follow through stocks, look for the prior day's support level to break as a good entry market if possible.

Trading Recap 10/15/15

There was pretty good opportunity today but I didn't take any of it unfortunately. It is hard to have a good risk for my small account on some of these names even on 100 shares. Even on my TRIP trade yesterday I had to put my risk less than what it should have been (83 over/under vs 84.5 over/under). I will have to take this into account. It is hard to balance not wanting to stop out prematurely with the fact that it is hard on a lot of plays to have a good and proper risk set. Key word is proper.

Here are the main plays I was looking at.

TTHI: I saw this on the top % gainers scan and looking at the daily chart I knew it was a junk company and the news seemed like junk. I became interested in the short when it looked like it failed to breakout and 2.60s would be the peak again. I hesitated shorting in the 2.50s mainly because it looked like the same thing before where it tried to breakout and failed but then pushed higher anyway but came back down again. Also, it was 20 cent risk and on 200 shares that would be a lot and I wasn't going to do 100 shares and then 100 to add since it wouldn't be worth it, unless it went back to $2 or something... (which it did). Anyway it broke 2.50 and I was looking for it to peak for an entry on the backside. It peaked and I saw the sellers absorbing at 2.47 so with all this combined there was no excuse for not taking this entry. I remember seeing some support around 2.44 so I thought it could bounce from there but I was overthinking things and taking the chart too literally, if that makes sense. I was scared to do it even though everything was lined up perfectly. No excuse but I will use this as a lesson going forward. Totally unlike my TRIP trade yesterday where I just went for it.

ZFGN: I was thinking of trading this in the morning a few times but decided against it. I wanted to remember this chart though because it has a pattern I see often that works most of the time. If a stock consolidated and breaks out but then comes back and has lower highs and starts to fade away, then it is almost always a great short opportunity. That happened here after the failed 11:30AM breakout.

VTL: I was going to have this on watch for a short either tomorrow or next week but it ramped so much that I got interested in it. I saw it had a huge volume move on the 1min and it looked like a top. That was followed by a quick stuff move. It was hard to have a proper risk for my small account even for 100 shares since I would have to short in the 7.50 area where I first saw it and my stop would be HOD (40 cents away). It faded the rest of the day with no real pops to short.

Things to work on:

1. Take the fucking trade - no overanalysis.
2. No fear. When we choose safety, we reinforce fear.

Trading Recap 10/14/15

I actually came out with a profit today although I was up a lot more than what I realized in the trade. A small lifeline on my small account...

White arrow is entry followed by exit.

TRIP: I read the news and to me it looked non-significant but that doesn't mean that the stock can't continue ripping. I missed the opening morning parabolic from $82 to $84 in one candle but as I saw the stock trade I noticed nice lower highs. On the next lower high I shorted at $82 with risk to $83 over/under. In hindsight it was a tight stop compared to what it should have been (the premkt highs at $84.3). Right when I entered it spiked to $82.5 and I thought well there goes my account. But it settled back down and dropped lower. I was very patient with it and let it retest and fail at $80 then $79.5 then $79 all the way to $78. I was up a nice amount at that point and I thought it could fade even more the rest of the day. It held $78 twice but I didn't think much of it and thought lower highs were forming and $78 would crack eventually. However, when I thought it was testing and peaking at $79 it went right through it and then $80 came in no time. At this point I am a bit pissed but I am not going to be stubborn or rash and either let it become a loser or take it off at the highs. I decided to be patient for a dip and then I would get it. Unfortunately, any dip came pretty quickly and I didn't get a chance to cover. I put a stop at 80.55 and figured if it triggers then it will keep going up. It triggered and stopped me out for smaller gains but had I held on and been stubborn it would have been a loser. Overall I am happy with how I played it. I didn't cover right away when it started going back but tried to wait for a dip since this isn't some random $3 momo stock that squeezes on air.

Things to work on:

1. Nothing in particular. I think this was overall a good trade even though I didn't get to cover in the $78s.

Trading Recap 10/13/15

I am writing this on the 15th since I didn't get a chance to write about the 13th's action. Basically, I was right about something but got scared and stopped out prematurely. Top Tick Vince again. I had one trade left in my account at this point (two at the most).

White arrows are entries followed by exits.

PACB: I had this on radar for a short. After it went through $8 and got rejected and peaked $7.9s again as resistance I decided to go short at $7.83 due to the daily being overextended and it looking like $8 got rejected. It worked immediately and I tried to be patient with my risk at 7.9s but it spiked up and I thought it had reclaimed a level of support so I stopped out for close to breakeven right near the top of the bounce. It fell and it looked like it peaked again at 7.75s so I shorted again but it went up to 7.9 which was my stop and I took it off there due to fear. It then proceeded to fall quite a bit. The second entry was not the best and possibly emotional although I really thought it did peak (which it did end up doing but not before going a bit higher first).

Things to work on:

1. If you are in a trade you must accept the risk. There have been countless times where you have been right but stopped out prematurely due to lack of confidence and fear. 

Trading Recap 10/12/15

No trades for me today, although I did an order in for one but Suretrader fucked up saying I had no BP even though I did. The trade would have worked although I am not sure if it would have been profitable since it did end up coming back to my entry and I'm not sure if I would have covered beforehand. There was a lot of opportunity today that I saw and didn't take advantage of. At the same time a lot of it was more things I was uncertain of but in hindsight, would have been great trades.

CANF: This was my main watch in the AM. I thought about shorting this in the premkt after it stuffed on the false breakout. It would have been a nice scalp into support but I am unsure if I would have been more patient or not. I probably would have covered right before market open, which would have been ok. Right at the open it flushed to support but then ripped back up and made a new high but then got rejected. Thinking it got rejected and any pops would be good shorts I looked for a lower high and was about to short but it brokeout again but got rejected and that was the top. I monitored it for a bit afterwards and unfortunately I had to go do something while it had a setup I was very familiar with. It tried to break out from the base but then just had lower highs afterwards and I have been that pattern work with great success numerous times.

ZINC: This is the one I put an order in for but it never went through. I had this on watch for a short and saw it had some failed follow through. I was looking at the prior support from Friday as a guide and once that broke I should have shorted there but it was too quick. When it retested 5 and looked to be peaking I put in the order thinking it could fade a lot more. It did fade but then it consolidated and came all the way back.

APDN: The main reason I didn't short this was because it had very little volume and it was so thin. I saw the huge volume 9 breakout attempt fail and was thinking about shorting it there but it was so jumpy. It fell quite  a bit before coming back and I thought it had more in it but it just had lower highs and fell from there. Sort of a missed opportunity, more like something to play with smaller size with a bigger account.

AQXP: I saw this running huge in the AM on big volume and thought about scalping the parabolic short. Good thing I didn't since it went a lot higher from there. Usually with these parabolics if you switch to another timeframe like the 3min in this case, you can clearly see the rejection wick along with the highest volume bar. The 1min wasn't as clear cut. Anyway, I was monitoring it and saw a stuff on the 1min but I wasn't too sure about it. Turns out whether or not it was a stuff, it would have been a great entry since it faded quite a bit from there.

Trading Recap 10/6/15

I took my first trade in a while. I got the top tick syndrome again where the trade was correct but I essentially top ticked out of the trade due to emotion. Even beyond all of that though, it felt good to trade. My entry was good and I just went in when the trade met my criteria. Due to my low confidence and fear of a stock breaking out and spiking quickly before I could cover, I got out right at HODs. Even though I lost money, I have a new hunger inside me and passion to trade. I wish it didn't come when my account is at $560 but whatever. I don't have any expectations of making this work although it is possible, although I would have to get lucky. But small and steady can do it. Losses like today reduce my chances significantly. I essentially only have two more trades left on this account. Then I will stop and save more money to try again. But just entering the trade instead of waiting for confirmation and attacking when I saw an opportunity felt good. I will be trading as much as possible even in school and will be doing nightly watchlists even for days other than Tuesday/Thursday when I normally trade.

White arrow is entry followed by exit.

MU: I had this on watch for an 18 test and fail since it was quite extended over the past two days. I saw 18 had stuffed and when it started to head lower I went in at 17.9. The trade worked right away but came back and I thought it might have been a higher low for continuation. My risk was 18 over and under and with HOD stop. It started spiking a bit towards HOD and I figured I was wrong so I stopped out at 18.06, two cents from HOD. From there it was lower highs where I could have added in and waited for the drop. So right idea but poor execution on the stop. I will have to accept the risk fully instead of taking it off if I think it will go higher but it really doesn't. Premature stopping out is a terrible thing in cases like this.

ZINC: I saw this having volume and trending nicely. Once it formed a wedge I wanted to go long on a breakout. Unfortunately it sort of just spiked up and I had to go so I didn't want to chase it but it held and grinded up the rest of the day.

CTRV: I was looking for a 4.30 test and fail for the true backside of the move. It stuffed at the open and I wanted to go short but hesitated. That would have been a nice scalp at least. The SSR turned on and it came back to 4.30 for a retest but it failed and hovered the rest of the day. One thing to note is the big volume candle that marked a short term bottom.

XNPT: What a miss. I was looking for a pop to short or failed follow through. It was an extremely easy failed follow through play on the base break and it was off everyone's radar so an easy fade for sure. Have to keep this in mind going forward. I discounted it right away when I thought there were better plays.

EXAS: A case of everyone wanting the bounce = crowded long so short it for an easy play. I didn't know what to do with this so I put it on the backburner but I didn't realize it would be crowded and fade like this. Not many on my twitter feed were talking about so it was hard to get any indication on sentiment. Failed follow through would have worked although it had large range.

Lessons:

1. Give the trade the full room it needs and don't top tick it.
2. Don't discount anything. There's opportunity everyday. 

Some thoughts

I wanted to make a random blog post about some things I have been thinking about and what others have made me think about.

I keep referring to a lack of confidence or knowing if what I am doing is correct. Until today I never really fully comprehended how deep the problem was. I thought it just applied to my trading and figured that was normal since I haven't had much success trading etc etc. However, I was driving today and it hit me. The light turned green and even though I knew 100% it was green and I could go, my immediate reaction was to see if the person in the other lane drove first to confirm that we could in fact go. I've probably taught myself to look for confirmation from others since I've failed so much before. Whether it was the startup I had and the people I dealt with (and currently dealing with....), or all of my trading mistakes, or anything else in general, I never really had a meaningful successful experience.

But I may just be too hard on myself. In the gym when lifting weights, for example, I have reached some intermediate goals I have set for myself. The happiness lasted for a bit, but eventually it became a sense of "well these are still beginner weights, when I add another plate to my deadlift then maybe I'll be happy". Is that fair to me when I have been putting in the work and research necessary to get better? Probably not but I have always been tough on myself. I always got good grades throughout my academic career, but I realize that it's all a fucking joke and too easy anyway and it's a huge waste of my time. So I don't consider it a big deal even though others do. Even when I was taking computer science classes as a business student. I was the best in the class by far and yet never thought much of it. I considered the class work to be easy and was more shocked that actual CS majors couldn't figure out the introductory stuff.

Going back to the idea of wanting confirmation, it is a weird thing for me. When I want to do something, I typically end up just doing it no matter what whether it be approaching some girl, or doing something adventurous for the first time etc. But when it comes to the specifics, that sense of "I'm not good enough by myself and need confirmation from someone else" comes up. It comes up in the gym where I wish I had someone to look at my form and critique it but I suppose that is a natural thing to want. I am always in doubt though, something can always be better. Perhaps that is a good mentality to have, I'm not sure at this point. A balance is needed, which is something I have learned applies to many things in life.

Anyway I rambled long enough and this is more than I thought I would write. As for fixing the problem? I have no clue. I suppose more experience is the cure. If that is true, I will be trading more and not chickening out like I always do. I will trade only 100 shares if I have to. If I want to be a daytrader, I have to fucking trade. I have to know for sure that this is what I want and that I can do it. No excuses anymore. If I like the trade, I take it, even with 100 shares on a $3 stock. I just need to trade at this point and get that experience so I can stop doubting myself.

As for doubting myself at the green light, well, that has probably bled over from my other failures in life like in business, trading, golf, etc. Like I said, I never had a meaningful victory in my life before though I have tried to achieve them.