Today was a decent green day. While it was green though, I have to be hard on myself for not really capitalizing on what was a prime setup and the stock acted exactly how I envisioned it would the day before. The bullshit trades that you do really don't just affect your pnl directly but also indirectly through the other trades that you are actually prepared for but you don't capitalize on them to the fullest extent. So no more bullshit trades and much more going long and short on dips and pops. Also, I have to be much more prepared for the stocks I want to trade with the key levels of inflection and also better levels that I know of (I am good at this but need to be better). Also, and I have said this before, but realizing anything can happen and just putting the trade on using just s/r is the best way to success I realize now and not just some random patterns (although of course at times they are useful). That is the only thing that is consistent through every trade - just putting on a trade based on support or resistance and giving it the proper room needed.
MBLY: I thought the news was pretty fluffy so I was short biased. I wasn't going to short it right at the open or anything thouugh, I wanted to see lower highs or something to short. It ended up having some decent volume/stuff at 37.30s so I shorted around there. I was in the money a bit as it got to vwap but my idea for it was to retest premkt lows. It started bouncing and I added on what I thought would be a lower high but that didn't work so I just got out for a tiny loss on the position. Then I tried it on some level 2 trade which of course didn't work as I saw it couldn't get past a certain level. I tried it one last time when it had a fake breakout and then came off and looked to have had a lower high afterwards. It was just chopping around and the more it sat there and didn't fade the more I didn't like it so I took it off for flat which was a good call as it ended up being an all day trender. It offered nice dips along the way up and was a nice breakout from the morning range once it got going. I took it off watch to focus on other stocks. Lessons: Don't anticipate highs/lows etc. No level 2 trades and no bullshit minute patterns. Just look at the chart and give it enough room. Of course, fake highs and low don't have to be it although at best you will be able to re-enter your position at a higher/lower price as they always pops/drop before going in the same direction again..
KATE: Kind of a bullshit pattern trade. Thought it had a fake breakout and came back under vwap and would fade back to 17. It just ended up chopping around until that big spike came. Lesson: Don't waste time with these trades.
IONS: Thought it looked weak for day 3 continuation. I wasn't paying too much attention to it so I missed some pops etc when it was first going lower. Eventually I got in and was looking for a fade to a big support area on the daily/hourly. It got close but then had a fake low so I moved my stop up and got hit. I ended up with a tiny gain on it. It got back to vwap and I thought it could break it because Adam F tweeted about it and it is definitely iffy when he tweets because it either causes the stock to drop or the crowd comes in and then it squeezes so I wanted to be careful on it in case it was the latter. When it started making some more lower highs I got back in thinking there would be no squeeze. It went a bit lower but not to my target and came back and started going higher so I got out again for a tiny win after it made another fakeish low. Then it just ended up trending lower for the rest of the day. Lesson: Overall trend for a stock is more important than fake lows/highs. Still be wary and either sell/cover after them and reenter your position.
LABU: Just had this on watch and saw a nice pattern after support became resistance and shorted it then. Covered too early although I looked for a potential spot where it could go to but it went past that. Sometimes you get a good cover price and sometimes you could have gotten a lot more. I guess cover half although I didn't have that many shares but it's whatever. Or just trail your stop.
NVDA: This was a big miss for me and is the stock I mentioned in the intro. I had the feeling it would washout, get shorts excited, then higher lows and then ramp. I tried going long in the morning but didn't give it enough room and was a bit early. However, once it started holding the important premkt levels then that was a good spot to get in. Once it got above vwap and perked were good adds. I tried going long at 106 due to a very convincing bid there. I know I shouldn't trade based on l2 but the l2 matched with what the chart was saying and it was a lot more convincing than other things. It worked this time as well ... but not before blipping lower a few pennies and not giving it enough room. So I missed a big trade by a cent or two.. Later on, I saw it consolidating and thought it was worth a breakout attempt on this as it was definitely punishing shorts and that trade worked up to r/g level. Later on, a good attempt at going long was where it dipped at premkt levels but I didn't have this level defined and wasn't paying too much attention. So that was a mistake. A bigger lesson is to not take the chart "literally". What I mean by that is I thought the stock was going to rollover because it had a lower high and then started to curl lower and looked like it was going to breakdown. Instead, it ripped in your face and started the next move higher. Overall, the trend was bullish and it was a spot to get long at a good support level. There is no "the stock is curling lower so it should do this" or etc. Just the major support/resistance levels - a stock doesn't have to do anything at that particular point and time - it can still do what you want but in a different fashion than what you think. Later on, I tried a couple of breakouts but they each failed so I lost and was flat on most of them. Had I just bought a dip and got a decent entry and held, I wouldn't have had to worry about anything even if it was with smaller size. Multiple lessons here: The stuff mentioned in the intro and giving things enough room and starting with smaller size and then adding in on confirmation.
Things to remember:
1. Stuff in the intro.
2. Small size and winning is better than nothing.
3. Overall trend for a stock is more important than fake lows/highs. Still
be wary and either sell/cover after them and reenter your position.
4. Don't anticipate highs/lows etc. No level 2 trades and no bullshit
minute patterns. Just look at the chart and give it enough room.
5. So no more bullshit trades and much more going long and short on dips and pops.
6. I have to be much more prepared for the stocks I want to trade with the
key levels of inflection and also better levels that I know of (I am
good at this but need to be better).
7. A bigger lesson is to not take the chart "literally". What I mean by
that is I thought the stock was going to rollover because it had a lower
high and then started to curl lower and looked like it was going to
breakdown. There is no "the stock is curling lower so it should do this" or etc.
Just the major support/resistance levels - a stock doesn't have to do
anything at that particular point and time - it can still do what you
want but in a different fashion than what you think.
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