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Monday, November 21, 2016

Trading Recap 11/21/16

Small losing day today that should have been a winning day. Progress is being made overall though with my psychology. My calls/ideas are good - trading them and all of my ideas is something else. But that is the work in progress. What basically happened today was a mini version of what happened a few weeks ago when I was right about a few things in the morning but never took them so then when I see something that is ehh I just say screw it and go for it even though it's not the best setup. Luckily I didn't do much size at all and just took a starter and it was only one trade. There wasn't much else after the morning anyway. So the big takeaway from today is to just go for it on the actual good ideas - don't let today get repeated again.

TSN: I was originally short biased due to the poor earnings/guidance etc. It had a very nice pattern going into the open - which was pretty much "the pattern" that has worked all the time for a fade no matter what. This time though it didn't work so clear. I tried shorting it at vwap when that was a peak in the first few minutes at the open. I let it go a bit higher over/under vwap but at this point it wasn't really adhering to the pattern. So because it wasn't adhering to the pattern I wanted to get out for flat if I could. I had a smaller position size to let it test over/under vwap. I got out for flat but right after I got out it did end up going lower. It had a nice pattern that would have been better to short when it was broke under $57, that was a good short. It did make new lows but the lows were bought right back up on volume so that was a signal to possibly get out. Again, it could have popped then dropped lower but it's good to take some off at the very least. After that happened, it just chopped around for a bit but did look more bullish. I didn't want to waste my time though on a slow day like today so even though it got above vwap and held, I didn't take it. It did end up working although it was a tricky stock to trade and it was pretty algo-driven it seemed like. Also, it stuffed and came off and dipped before going higher, so that is another consideration as well which I have mentioned before.

YY: This was the stock/trade that is the reason for the intro paragraph. I saw it had earnings and it was starting to fade into the open so I thought it could be another MOMO. At the open it popped right to vwap and I thought about shorting it but was unsure what it would do. Of course that ended up being the top. So it came off a bit but then retested vwap and I feel like I missed the entry but that would have definitely worked as well. I definitely hesitated with that. It did provide opportunity after that, when it peaked the prior support using the longer term chart. Where I ended up getting in was on the bounce back after it looked like it reclaimed support and was on the move higher. I shorted it against vwap. I figured that it would go lower and bigger picture vs. the minute price action and it didn't mean that it reclaimed. When it usually doesn't reclaim, it just goes right back down instead of holding the support and then pushing from there. So that was just my psychology executing the trade due to frustration from not taking other trades. I did small size and gave it to over/under vwap but it just started holding above vwap and never hit my breakeven stop after I knew it was a dumb trade so I got out. I got out near the top when I put my stop above the prior high and I figured something like that could happen but I didn't want this dumb trade to become something worse. So that was the big lesson I learned with this trade: just take the right trades the first time so you don't get frustrated into taking shitty setups.

Other stocks:

BBY: I had BBY on long watch for continuation and in the morning it reclaimed vwap and held so I thought about going long but didn't. Then it went higher and came right to vwap which would have been perfect but I didn't take it and it ended up going straight up for a while afterwards. I didn't take it because I thought today would be a slow day and stocks like this wouldn't get much followthrough but I was wrong. It was definitely a good setup though.

OCUL: This one I had on short watch. I saw it having a nice short pattern and I thought about shorting the breakdown but it had low volume so I was weary of it just being a trap. But it wasn't a trap and it did consolidate a bit even under the support before really flushing. I also didn't short it because others had it on long watch or wanted it higher so I know I have to avoid listening to anyone else and just focus on me.

SPU: I missed the stuff in the morning. I was unsure how to play these stocks after the shippers and the fact that it is Thanksgiving week where stuff tends to run. However, with SCON and BNSO last week having not that much followthrough, I should have been more short biased. I did see the stuff but by the time I saw it it was 50 cents off the high and thought I missed my entry. I think if I see something like that and miss the perfect entry, I should just get in smaller size and if it bounces a bit before tanking then add in. Even with the small shares it would have been a small but nice win.

Things to remember:
1. Take the right setups the first time with no hesitation.
2. Breakdowns can be ok even with lesser volume.
3. When you miss the best entry on a stuff, just short lesser size and add in if it bounces a bit before going lower.
4. Don't listen to anyone else.

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