Frustrating day with being down a decent amount. There were some key errors that basically came down to: not wanting to miss out on what others were doing (again!) and not giving things enough room due to doing big size in order to make back losses/get some wins and join the action.
SHAK: I knew I wanted to get long based on the earnings/short float. I saw it was at premkt support at the open but wasn't sure if it was going to go lower first. Then it started going up and then it ripped so I missed that trade. What I could have done here is start in with small size and see what happens. Either average in and see or add to a winner. I seemed to have missed this lesson I should have learned weeks ago and that I have mentioned on this blog. SMALL GAIN > BIG LOSS. Even if I never added to it and kept the partial, it still would have been a nice win. I thought about buying the new high and when it crossed over vwap (which I should be giving less significance to at the open!), but didn't want to buy a fakeout. I guess it depends on the stock you do on but I could have again done small size and risk to the lows. It then gave me an opportunity to add by consolidating for a bit before going higher so that was another entry/add point. Anyway, later on it had a huge volume breakout that I thought was it but it continued higher so that's another reason to not just think things are done with because of the huge volume. It is a good place to sell some into though just in case. Where I did eventually enter was on a tight consolidation on the 1min where it looked like it flushed, came back, and held the prior support. So this I could have legitimately risked a little bit because that was the pattern and it did work by perking quickly off that level but I was looking for more and it never came. I had a breakeven stop put it, it triggered, and then it went back up, made a new high, and then came back down. The breakeven stop was bad in this case. It was ok that I didn't sell it when it popped since I was expecting more. I tried it again when it was holding up and the market was tanking. I figured it had relative strength and when it held an uptrend I got in. I stopped out when it went under the trendline and that was it. It could have worked but it made a false high and I guess just because something wasn't tanking yet doesn't mean it won't soon. So lesson learned there although the fake high could have been anything and I knew that.
TASR: Basically I tried buying this at vwap since I missed the open pop. Looking back, the break above 27 was good with a stop over/under vwap. I will look for that more at the open. I then put a bid at vwap which got filled and gave it to $27 over/under. It worked for a bit but then it just formed a lower high and sold off along with the market. Nothing to do about that. Only thing to work on was to get the $27 breakout.
UVXY: I tried shorting this but gave it too little room. It gave a nice pattern but I knew intuitively that it wouldn't work in this case because at the time I took the trade I knew the market had to maybe flush out or retest the low before possibly coming back up and bouncing. So I gave the trade too little room and I was in with bigger size since I wasn't making any money that the others were making at the time from the market fade. So I had the right idea but gave it too little room and knew that it wouldn't work but took it anyway. That is a serious problem that was due to FOMO, comparing myself to others, etc.
NUGT: Basically shorted the $12 retest because the way the mkt faded and gold/NUGT not doing anything signaled that it was weak and could go lower. I didn't give it enough room and just stopped out near the top of course. One thing to note here is it did a few fakeouts before eventually fading. You must be prepared for anything that happens and stick to your plan. If that means giving things enough room with less size then so be it. SMALLER GAIN > LOSS. Eventually it ended up doing exactly what I thought it would, of course. Had I used less size and given it more room like so many other trades I would have had a nice win instead of a stupid loss.
Other stocks:
Everything was fading rapidly and I was unprepared for a move like that. The whole time I didn't want to chase but they kept going lower. While I could just say that these aren't my specialty and I should avoid them, I think they are useful to learn how to trade. The biggest thing to takeaway is to be ok with shorting breakdowns in these scenarios and not being afraid to buy the washout on big volume. Make sure to give it enough room though because it can double dip like it did on AAPL on the washout. For shorting breakdowns the best thing to do is see if it works right away and has followthrough. If so then ok but if it rebounds a bit just cover partial just in case. But looking at all of the charts like AMZN, NFLX, BABA, AAPL, etc - some were very clean and others were not clean at all. The best chance I think is to just trade the ones that have a very clear setup - notably AAPL and AMZN vs the others. You don't know which ones are going to be clean though so the best thing to do is just wait for the best setups. DO NOT JUST GO IN WILLY NILLY WITHOUT A PLAN THINKING IT HAS TO WORK.
Also on a stock like KSS, just looking at it now - once it broke past the resistance and you miss it - don't just write it off. It did bid absorb quite a bit at 50.20 where you could have risked off of. This is all hindsight of course as you have seen PLENTY of times where it just gets taken out so not worth it.
Things to work on:
1. GIVE THINGS ENOUGH ROOM. A STOCK CAN DO ANYTHING BEFORE IT MAKES IT'S MOVE IN YOUR DIRECTION. DON'T BE WHIPSAWED OUT. USE LESS SIZE IF NEED BE.
2. NO FOMO + COMPARING YOURSELF TO OTHERS. FOCUS ON YOU.
3. LOOK FOR STUFF AT THE OPEN TO GO OFF OF LIKE THE TASR $27 B/O OR START IN WITH SMALL SIZE AT A POTENTIAL SUPPORT AREA LIKE SHAK.
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