White arrows are entries followed by exits.
CBMX: My only winner for the day. I made sure to check the SEC filings and given the earnings/prior chart I thought it would be a good short. When it stuffed and went lower right at the open, I got in but got a bad price for that specific candle. In that regard, I need to do better and just get into the trade with small size if I feel it will go lower. I should have at least gotten in 10 cents higher, my reason for going in was that it broke premarket support and I have seen these types before where they just drop. I added when it broke down and got a decent fill on that. My plan was to be as patient as possible and cover when it was just fucking around. I gave it some time and sometimes patience works and sometimes it doesn't but overall I covered half when it looked to be holding higher lows and my plan was to let it ride for the rest of the day, I kept seeing bids soaking and said forget it and put a buy stop at a price I felt was ok. If it went back up, I was ok with covering since I wanted to move on due to opportunity costs of me not being in another position that I thought was good. It got me out at a good price and that was it. It ended up screwing around for most of the day anyway. It did go slightly lower but not by much. From now on, when I see the smallest thing to make me cover (like that small higher low after the flush at around 9:54) I am just going to take it off and move on. For now I need to be in profit building mode and then when I become more established I can be more patient.
OCUL: This was a winner that turned into a loser for me. I again checked the SEC filings and the news and prior chart to get a more complete picture. I shorted after the morning spike and drop down. I have to get faster though. Ideally I should have gotten at least a 10 cent higher fill. Once I shorted I added on the breakdown (INSTEAD OF WAITING FOR CONFIRMED PEAK) and paid for it by having to cover in that squeeze. After it came back down and was under vwap, I figured that the squeeze was done so I reshorted when it failed vwap. After it broke down I added when it looked like it was peaking but I should have waited for a better pop or more confirmed breakdown. Afterwards I got a real pop. While it was a winner for me and was in the low teens I kept seeing fishy L2 activity. It seemed like they were just guiding it lower only to bid prop back up. I should have covered but my GREED took over and I wanted to be patient for the 5 wash. That never happened and instead I got a reclaim of support and a break of the trendline. What did I say in yesterday's post? A break of the trendline and a reclaim of support (at around the 5.13 level) was a good cover and a potential good long. So I waited and covered into the push and at least waited for a dip to get out my remaining shares. I wanted to get long on dips for EOD run but I waited too long and thought it could dip lower but it didn't. I wanted to short the premature EOD run for a scalp but didn't either, unfortunately.
ETSY: I was looking for a pullback on this as it was getting overextended on the daily chart with three days up in a row. I had some nice FOMO when I saw it pulling back and chased that breakdown. Only to have it rip in my face a few minutes later and have me cover. I should have waited for a confirmed peak and if that doesn't happen then so what. Or after that 9:55 pop and fail I could have gotten in and when it reclaimed vwap get out. Not the biggest trade but a profitable one. When entry and everything is on point, things take care of themselves. When you chase you get fucked.
SAEX: This was the first time I had borrows to this sort of thing so in the back of my mind there was that thought that I just had to get in and locate some. It looked like it stuffed into the $49 area before and now it looked like it was peaking at a prior resistance. However, my real plan was to either leave it alone or to wait until a major support area peaked and then go in on pops. Had I done the latter I would have gotten it and got nice profits on the wash. Instead, I shorted when it looked ready to go lower (have to short when it looks good to breakout) then I added when it looked ready again only to top tick the small pop due to hitting my downside because of the stupid add and then not being in it when it finally did wash out a few minutes later. Had I waited until $43 peaked I would have risked that over/under and been ok with a cover into vwap. What happened here was FOMO and adding prematurely. On stocks like this, there will be plenty of downside when you don't pick the top but let it peak at a prior resistance. It is a pattern you have seen work time and time again, let it work out and don't get FOMO.
Other stocks of note:
BIIB: I wanted to short it today due to a lot of yesterday's move being due to a short squeeze. Unfortunately I didn't get to play it since I was already in two stocks and I was focusing on other stocks too and had this one on the backburner.
ADXS: I wanted to monitor it but it wasn't my favorite since it has a history of being a very tough trader. Today though, that wasn't the case and I missed that. It stuffed into the prior high from yesterday and just had a familiar pattern of lower highs and consolidation before snapping and breaking vwap.
TRIP: I just wanted to put this here as a note to make sure I don't short breakdowns because this is what happens when you do. You get screwed and the stock shoots up on you.
OPTT: This was a tough one and I wanted to short it before but again, when it peaks and confirms there is still a nice trade available. No need to get chopped up in a trade like this. Arrow would be good entry.
Things to work on:
1. Don't be greedy. Take your profits during this phase of your trading career. You can't afford to not lock in. Take the quick money and you can get back in if wanted. If you see the smallest thing to make you take profits, just do it.
2. Only add when you would get into the trade again assuming you weren't even in it in the first place. Wait for true confirmation (support/resistance holding). Adding otherwise will screw your average and get you nervous of your position.
3. Continue checking the SEC filings
4. If you want to get into a trade but aren't sure like at the open, just get in with small size so you can give it some room then add in to half to full size if opportunity presents itself. Don't wait and get a bad fill. Get in there with small size.
4. Get in on dips if it looks like EOD setup even if it is earlier in the day.
5. Trendline break = possible long/cover
6. No chasing/FOMO - wait for the setup or forget it!
7. Stick to your plan and wait for the setup - let things peak or hold before going in certain scenarios.
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