SPHS: I was short biased due it gapping up in sympathy to the Pfizer acquisition and everyone seemed bullish on it on stocktwits so that made me more short biased as well. I was looking for a move higher/stuffs to get short but unfortunately that didn't happen. It did seem to stuff out of the gate so I got interested then. It was under vwap and while it was a definite I got in with small size and I was willing to add higher on a proper entry such as a stuff. So I shorted small size (while it was towards the bottom of the candle I waited until it looked like it peaked vwap and got right in) and then got an immediate wash with big volume. Unfortunately I had small size and I did think it could go lower as a bigger picture idea but the big volume and flush did get me thinking that that was it. I wanted to add on a retest of the r/g level but missed that entry so when it was consolidating near the lows I added in because it did look like it could go lower. I then added in full size (too soon) because it went a little lower and that ended up being it. It then started to reverse and I decided to get out of all my shares within a few minutes because I figured that was really it with the flush when there was no more immediate downside. So overall the thesis and such was ok but the adding and not just taking the flush screwed me. You can't impose your will on the market - if you get the move with only partial size then just take it and don't try to force another trade on it. You should have taken the profits and then you could have reshorted after taking profits to see if it would go lower or just not have done anything else with it.
CXW: I was bullish on this stock compared to GEO due to the insider buys that this one had compared to the sells GEO had and any pattern of higher lows/reclaiming I would be interested in. I went long after it looked to have washed out and then reclaimed vwap. I started in on a dip to vwap and was going to give it to the lows. It ended up coming right back down and I sold it right at the lows. While I didn't let it test and break the lows, I figured I could always get back in if it did work and I thought it would work start to work right away. It did end up flushing below the lows and it came back and reclaimed vwap. This pattern looked interesting to me so I went long again and it did break higher this time. However, I wanted a dip back to the 60s to add and it just went through to the 70s without any rest. When it held a higher low I just got in and added where it ended up being the top unfortunately. When it didn't have any followthrough and GEO was going up at the same time (I picked the wrong stock to go long - the one no one thought would go up did go up - go figure) CXW wasn't doing anything so I just got out and I was overall at a tiny loss on the name. While I could have bought the washouts, I wasn't looking for a washout type of play but I wanted it to prove itself first. However, I should have given it more time since it didn't do much at the open as far as prove itself. The ways I would have improved this trade was to wait for better confirmation of trend and not add and get partial FOMO.
CYCC: With the SSR on and Tang Capital in it, I thought it would be a good long/squeezer. I waited for a pattern to get long with and I saw it possibly reclaiming support so I entered long as it also broke the downtrend line but unfortunately I stopped out prematurely at the lows before it took off. After I exited the trade I thought it was a stupid entry since I could have drawn the downtrend line better so that it didn't look like it broke it and therefore I shouldn't have gotten in. I did see it pop but didn't want to chase at that point even though it would have worked, especially with the SSR on. This is a good example of a stock that could look like it got rejected and the move is over vs. an ABCD and it consolidating before a move higher. Therefore, the thesis of the trade has to be correct and any confirming price action should be present.
LPTN: This was up on no news and up three days in a row with bigger volume each day so it was overall a good pattern to look for a short. I figured they would need to stuff through to new highs to get everyone out which is what happened. After it came back down and made a lower high at prior resistance I went in and then quickly scaled in which was a mistake. Now, I made sure to not get too anxious even though I was in full size and I did add too quickly. I was looking for pops to r/g to short which I would have gotten if I was patient. I have to realize that if I get to add then great but if it just falls and I don't size in then also great because it will still be a profit. Again, I can't impose my will on the market. I did cover in high 2s after it didn't look it was going to go any lower and I figured I got the flush I wanted especially after being a little anxious during the consolidation period. After I covered I reshorted with half size just to hold for continued downside but it that didn't happen and I didn't want it getting away from me so I just got out. If I was patient on that and held true to my risk then I would have gotten a nice wash. I have to be true to my stop and not stop out prematurely and stop thinking what if?? unless the trade I wanted is no longer there.
VRX: I saw the news and didn't think the gap up was worth what the news was but I just wanted to keep it on watch in case anything interesting showed up. After it made nHOD but then had no followthrough I was interested in a short. After it broke the uptrend line and peaked I started in and then added in when 80s fell and peaked. I was looking to add if the 60s peaked but they never did and I never added. I was looking for a move like Friday where it gave back the entire day because it seemed like a similar circumstance and everyone was bullish on stocktwits so that helped with the conviction. Unfortunately, what happened was a downtrend line break and a slight reclaim of the 70s support level. I mentioned this before in prior posts but wanted to give this some room to work and this wasn't a low float squeezer. I won't even say I should have covered since overall it still looked ok. But next time I will just take something off when I see this since it seems to be a good predictor of reversals back to the upside. Anyway, my plan for the add was 80s over/under and VRX decided to just rip towards 31 again without dipping to see if 80s would hold so I stopped out of the add at a higher price than I wanted to and then just stopped out completely when 31 looked to reclaim. Later in the day I saw a similar flag pattern to TWLO that worked so I would have switched and went long but I decided to just go for a walk. Besides I wasn't so sure the flag would have worked anyway in this scenario.
YY: Stupid trade overall. These are the types of trades that I will no longer be doing for the most part. I saw YY parabolic towards the close and remembered a few days ago it did the same thing and then had a nice drop. On the 1min it looked like it stuffed into the 49 area so I shorted and yet again prematurely added in at support because it looked good for a breakdown and the same thing happened before. It ended up spiking up and I covered for a loss and it was the biggest loss for the day and it was a stupid trade anyway. Later on it had the same exact candle pattern it had when it did actually go down a few days ago but this time it went up. So it goes to show that you can't play random stocks like this - only stocks you have a thesis in. Also, just because it happened before doesn't mean it has to happen again - VRX and YY.
Other stocks of note:
TWLO: I saw a flag pattern form on this and while it did work and it did go higher - it wasn't a huge move and I didn't have any thesis as to why it would go higher other although it is a recent momo name so that is ok I suppose.
DWTI: It looked like a good short but oil was still not doing much so I didn't want to bother. That worked out because where I wanted to short was near the lows.
Things to work on:
1. Trade the best, fuck the rest - ONLY TRADE STOCKS WITH NEWS/THESIS + PRICE CONFIRMATION OR STOCKS WITH GOOD PATTERNS THAT ARE "IN PLAY" - these seem to be where you do well
2. NO FOMO - better today but can be better
3. Just because it happened before, doesn't mean it has to happen again
4. Don't impose your will on the market - if you get a chance to add then great and if not then that's fine too.
5. Take the flush/breakout on big volume that has big range because that could be it for the move.
6. Unless it looks very good at the open, don't do anything until a pattern you know forms.
7. Really be firm with your stop and not stopping our prematurely.
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