Today ended up being a decent day. I got a little screwed on BLUE which had me in the red in the morning but I made it all back and more with one nice trade. It goes to show you have to be always looking throughout the day at the stocks you have on watch. The continued focus going forward has to be on disconnecting from the money as much as possible.
LULU: Going into the open, I was mostly short biased because the move seemed way overdone given the Q4 guidance was weak which is particularly bad for a retailer like lulu. However, it did keep climbing in premarket so I kept that in mind. At the open it spiked up a quick $2. I really thought about shorting it then because that seemed to be the initial spike at the open and then it would fade the rest of the day. But I didn't do it in the 72s unfortunately. I had fear set in of what if it goes higher but as we know that is counterproductive and of course we must play the probabilities. So that was the first mistake. Now had it gone higher, would I have said the same thing or just said good thing I didn't short it? Given the pattern lately of these having one spike at the open and then coming off, it was worth the shot and clearly the same thing happened here. Anyway, I saw a base form and thought this was a good opportunity for a short so I shorted when it broke below it but then stopped out with my stop when it went back above the base break area. This is a similar mistake to FIVE where the stop should have been vwap over/under. It did have a lot of range but I had really small size so it shouldn't have mattered although to be fair for this sort of a trade and pattern it really shouldn't retest and it should just fade from there but of course anything can happen. I saw that vwap was still holding as a pretty strong resistance so I put an offer that got filled at vwap. It went a bit above and through the whole number but I gave it some room to work. It came off again but it looked like it was reclaiming with higher lows so at this point I wasn't really sure and just put a breakeven stop that got hit and got me out. While it was good that I got out because I wasn't sure, looking back at the chart, while it did seem bullish, it was one of those fake bullish type of patterns where it gets you to think it's about to breakout but then it just fades right when you think it will breakout. So I guess this goes back to something I kept saying before which is thesis > minute price action. So overall lessons: play the probabilities and have no fear, thesis > minute price action and be on the lookout for "fake bullish" patterns.
UHS: My main winner for the day. In the morning I was looking at it and how it looked weak with the big volume stuff candle and it holding under vwap. I thought about shorting it at vwap but wasn't sure about it. I guess that was a mistake but I guess I was looking for more evidence because I wasn't sure yet if it was going down or going to bounce but my inclination was lower. The stuff move and it holding under vwap should have been enough for me to give it a shot. I did eventually give it a shot on a nice pop and got a good entry. It ended up fading a bit from there but I was looking for a bigger move so didn't cover but was looking to add. When it retested $114 I thought about adding in but decided to let it test around and it ended up coming back all the way so I got out for flat. I could have given it to vwap over/under I guess but I rather just get out of the position and start fresh again if the opportunity arises. It started to peak $115 and the offers were absorbing a lot at that level so I thought about getting back in but it looked more bullish at that point because it looked like it reclaimed the prior support and I thought it would eat through it. I decided not to short which was a decent choice given it did spray through it where I would have been stopped out most likely but from there it did reject and come right back down and then fade from there and retest the low. When I saw it get right back under $115 I thought about shorting it then but didn't want to bother with it at that point. Eventually later in the day I saw it at the top end of its range with a nice volume candle. I decided to give it a shot with a tight stop and some bigger size for move back down to $114 from $115.60. It ended up working great and was a big gain for me. It did go a lot further though but I didn't cover because of a fear of missing out on profits or anything like that. It was just the plan to cover it there because I thought it would chop around at that point. I did think about reshorting when it was back under $113s and holding but thought it would just trickle back up instead of retesting the lows from yesterday. Lesson: Give things a shot when you think you have a better than average shot of a trade working, the trades that do work when you add into them will more than pay for the rest. Things may go further in your direction after you sell/cover but as long as you stuck to your plan and it wasn't out of a fear of giving back profits then you did the right thing.
BLUE: This stock finally fucked me for a bit although how I traded it wasn't bad. I was just caught in a big spike up. What happened was I shorted small size at vwap because I thought any pops towards vwap would be sold into but looking back perhaps it didn't bounce enough for that to work. It only bounced $1 vs $2 or so like yesterday. But that's hindsight speaking. We'll chalk this up to the probabilities speaking and this one instance it didn't work. Anyway, I gave it some room and saw it was peaking at around .65 ish level so I added in there and then gave it a full stop above the high. My plan was to cover half at my original entry and then let the rest ride with a breakeven stop on the added shares. Well unfortunately it spiked a dollar against me all of a sudden. I didn't panic and I put a bid where my stop was that didn't trigger and then I put a stop if it got back above $71. It hit my stop at $71.05 and then just went back down to where I could have gotten out. So I am glad I didn't panic completely and just hit out and let it test but I wanted to protect myself against further losses by putting that stop higher in case it did start to go higher. Just bad luck pretty much otherwise I traded it well. The only thing was maybe the vwap wouldn't have worked in this scenario since it needed to bounce more.
WDC: The first trade on this was when I saw a bullish pattern near the lows of the day so I just bought right away on instinct with a stop near the lows. This was good. I had an offer for half at what I thought was a good spot. It got there but stopped 2 cents before reversing and getting me out flat on the trade. Frustrating I didn't get at least a piece of it locked in but it's ok. Just poor luck. I wasn't aggressive with the offer either, it just didn't get there. I tried it again later when I saw it having a nice higher low and consolidating a little bit. It might have been a stupid trade and I was just looking for a scalp but I just kept moving my stop up until I got out for a tiny profit. It would have hit my breakeven stop anyway as it was just a scalp trade and once I was in the money a bit I didn't want to give it back. It did end up going much higher but I would have been out anyway. I figured I could just get a quick scalp out of it since it looked good for at least a move back to vwap. Nothing to really learn from this I guess.
TLRD: I wasn't sure whether to be long or short biased on this although I was more long biased based on the gap up above resistance and the decent earnings. It didn't provide much of a clear opportunity in the morning. It didn't dip to any good levels and didn't offer any good breakout levels either. It had dips along the way but I missed those as my attention was elsewhere. I did see a potential for a breakout above $27 and it was flagging a bit so I thought it was a good candidate for a breakout. I got in above $27 and it was consolidating a bit higher. I added in more shares when it broke above that range and put a stop a little below breakeven and below the last breakout point. I saw the way this chart looked and if it started to pullback and not go straight up then it would most likely fail over all. That ended up happening although it did hit my stop to the penny then bounce a bit after so I thought I made a mistake but it ended up fading back down anyway. No real lesson here I think other than it was good to try and add to it.
Other stocks:
Casinos: I didn't understand the news so didn't really touch them although I thought about it. These were more choppy trading than UHS for example yesterday where I understood what was going on for the most part. I guess the moral of the story here is to trade what you know.
Things to remember:
1. Play the probability and have no undeserved fear of a future what if scenario. Give things a shot when you think you have a better than average shot of
a trade working, the trades that do work when you add into them will
more than pay for the rest.
2. Thesis > minute price action
3. Look for "fake bullish" patterns
Thursday, December 8, 2016
Wednesday, December 7, 2016
Trading Recap 12/7/16
Interesting day with my PnL with my PnL starting off rather poorly but making a really nice comeback but then a slight pullback into the close. Still green for the day. Biggest takeaway however is still the need to disconnect from the money. I am getting much closer to that. Money doesn't matter. Just think about this as a fun game. And as I mentioned on a prior blog post, if you are down don't look to make it all back. Just do one good trade after another with no concern as to the PnL.
PLAY: I had the right idea on the stock but poor execution ended up with me taking a loss in it. I was long biased for the most part because of the really blowout earnings and it was at all time highs. I did have a worry that it might get sold into in case of profit taking. At the open it shot up then came back down to premkt support levels. Instead of going long here and seeing if it would hold I shorted because I saw a refreshing offer at $54. It didn't hold of course so I got out for a loss. I shorted because after I saw the refreshing offer and the way that it stuffed at the open I thought it could get sold into. I could say that I should have just bought $54 anyway or when it broke above it but at the time shorting it at the time I did along with the stuff and refreshing offers seemed to have fulfilled the narrative that it was getting sold into. It's tough to say whether or not that was right thing to do but I didn't give the short much room because I knew it could go higher still and I was just playing it until it picked a direction. $54 ended up being a good buy spot because it started climbing above vwap. I bought the $55 breakout but it failed to hold $55 at that time so I stopped out. $55 wasn't really a good level looking back so it is clear why it didn't work perfectly. Buying at vwap would have worked but at that time, vwap shouldn't really matter. It was more the prior resistance from before acting as support which I should have saw and put a bid in for. I left it alone after getting stopped out but it did end up climbing higher the rest of the day. Overall it was a wicky stock and not a good stock for breakouts. Dips had to be bought. Lesson: Whatever happens right at the open doesn't indicate what will happen at the rest of the day. So if you like something in a situation like this at a certain level then you should still take it. Certain stocks you have to give more room for.
TXMD: Definitely a frustrating play on this. I shorted it after it came off a bit at the open and was holding under $7. It was under premkt support and $7 was the big level from the day before. My plan was to give it to vwap over/under. It went through it though and went a bit higher than I thought it would. Unfortunately I guess I panic covered at the top (the exact top) and from there it just fell and made new lows. I then tried it again later on thinking it would retest 6.50 but it just ended up popping up and bouncing from there so I took another loss. The second trade might have been stupid (I was following the stair step pattern down and figured it would retest $6.50 from yesterday at least. The first trade warrants some discussion though. I believe that since I didn't know at the time whether I was shorting on the way up for a potential lower high or if it would just fade there I should have done lesser size and then added in. I should have noted more of the premkt levels from before and also saw the HOD was a few cents away so might as well give it some extra room in case. So lesson: When unsure just do less size and you can always scale in from there. Also, make a note of premkt levels more and know where HOD is.
WDC: I was potentially more long biased on this and was looking to buy at support. I didn't buy it at support due to fear at the open which was good for a point move. Then later on I did buy it right before it made new lows but it ended up being a fake low. I held onto it and gave it to .50s over/under. It started grinding towards vwap and at this time I was down from PLAY and TXMD a bit so I just wanted to take profit in case it went back down but this was an emotional decision. My original target was at the high end of the range. It got there and eventually made new highs and kept grinding the entire day. Selling there was a mistake. Lesson: Don't go off of PnL and treat each trade as its own.
BLUE: With the price being under the offering I became more short biased. I missed the clear vwap/premkt support short trade at the open. I remember SRPT did something similar as well. So I should have been paying more attention to that. Unfortunately it wasn't on my main screen so I didn't see it. I did short it when it got to vwap and shares absorbing on the offer. I ended up covering way too early just because I was afraid of turning it into a loser when I was already down from the other stocks. Bad! Later on I shorted it as it was holding below the lows for the day and shares were absorbing quite a bit at that level which made me think people who bought the offering wanted to get out. I shorted then and then when it broke under $71 I added in bigger size and it did come off a bit. I wanted to be patient because I thought this could really get going lower (that turned out to be near the bottom). But to protect profits I put a stop a bit higher that got me out. It is iffy as to whether this was the right idea or not. It ended up working in this scenario. This stuff really depends and sometimes it works and sometimes it doesn't. The mistake later on was not reshorting at vwap for an easy trade. I didn't do it out of fear which is stupid. Lesson: Good thing for sizing in. Bad for letting other trades affect this one and not reshorting when the opportunity was there.
SPY: Just a trade where I thought it would pullback after the parabolic move up and the huge volume. It didn't work so I stopped out for a tiny loss. It was worth a shot although on the daily timeframe it has clearly broken out so I should have taken that into account more so.
UHS: A lot of trades in this but it was a lot of fun to trade it. Too many ins and outs to go over but basically the lessons are: when in the heat of the moment like this make sure to look for spots to add in for a big win like this offered, after the down move is over don't short share absorbs because they will most likely breakout above it. Be quick with covers/sells although this was really tough with this stock.
Other stocks:
MYL and ALR: Both looked for a bounce since the news didn't seem bad. For MYL when it started coming off hard I took it off radar but I should have still looked at it more intently for a nice higher low pattern to get long and then potentially add to it. For ALR the news seemed like a rehash so it was worth a bounce attempt when I saw it having a higher low.
Things to remember:
1. Biggest takeaway however is still the need to disconnect from the money. I am getting much closer to that. Money doesn't matter. Just think about this as a fun game. Just do one good trade after another with no concern as to the PnL.
2. Whatever happens right at the open doesn't indicate what will happen at the rest of the day. So if you like something in a situation like this at a certain level then you should still take it.
3. When unsure just do less size and you can always scale in from there. Also, make a note of premkt levels more and know where HOD is.
4. Take into account the bigger timeframe.
5. Always be on the lookout for patterns later in the day like in the MYL example.
PLAY: I had the right idea on the stock but poor execution ended up with me taking a loss in it. I was long biased for the most part because of the really blowout earnings and it was at all time highs. I did have a worry that it might get sold into in case of profit taking. At the open it shot up then came back down to premkt support levels. Instead of going long here and seeing if it would hold I shorted because I saw a refreshing offer at $54. It didn't hold of course so I got out for a loss. I shorted because after I saw the refreshing offer and the way that it stuffed at the open I thought it could get sold into. I could say that I should have just bought $54 anyway or when it broke above it but at the time shorting it at the time I did along with the stuff and refreshing offers seemed to have fulfilled the narrative that it was getting sold into. It's tough to say whether or not that was right thing to do but I didn't give the short much room because I knew it could go higher still and I was just playing it until it picked a direction. $54 ended up being a good buy spot because it started climbing above vwap. I bought the $55 breakout but it failed to hold $55 at that time so I stopped out. $55 wasn't really a good level looking back so it is clear why it didn't work perfectly. Buying at vwap would have worked but at that time, vwap shouldn't really matter. It was more the prior resistance from before acting as support which I should have saw and put a bid in for. I left it alone after getting stopped out but it did end up climbing higher the rest of the day. Overall it was a wicky stock and not a good stock for breakouts. Dips had to be bought. Lesson: Whatever happens right at the open doesn't indicate what will happen at the rest of the day. So if you like something in a situation like this at a certain level then you should still take it. Certain stocks you have to give more room for.
TXMD: Definitely a frustrating play on this. I shorted it after it came off a bit at the open and was holding under $7. It was under premkt support and $7 was the big level from the day before. My plan was to give it to vwap over/under. It went through it though and went a bit higher than I thought it would. Unfortunately I guess I panic covered at the top (the exact top) and from there it just fell and made new lows. I then tried it again later on thinking it would retest 6.50 but it just ended up popping up and bouncing from there so I took another loss. The second trade might have been stupid (I was following the stair step pattern down and figured it would retest $6.50 from yesterday at least. The first trade warrants some discussion though. I believe that since I didn't know at the time whether I was shorting on the way up for a potential lower high or if it would just fade there I should have done lesser size and then added in. I should have noted more of the premkt levels from before and also saw the HOD was a few cents away so might as well give it some extra room in case. So lesson: When unsure just do less size and you can always scale in from there. Also, make a note of premkt levels more and know where HOD is.
WDC: I was potentially more long biased on this and was looking to buy at support. I didn't buy it at support due to fear at the open which was good for a point move. Then later on I did buy it right before it made new lows but it ended up being a fake low. I held onto it and gave it to .50s over/under. It started grinding towards vwap and at this time I was down from PLAY and TXMD a bit so I just wanted to take profit in case it went back down but this was an emotional decision. My original target was at the high end of the range. It got there and eventually made new highs and kept grinding the entire day. Selling there was a mistake. Lesson: Don't go off of PnL and treat each trade as its own.
BLUE: With the price being under the offering I became more short biased. I missed the clear vwap/premkt support short trade at the open. I remember SRPT did something similar as well. So I should have been paying more attention to that. Unfortunately it wasn't on my main screen so I didn't see it. I did short it when it got to vwap and shares absorbing on the offer. I ended up covering way too early just because I was afraid of turning it into a loser when I was already down from the other stocks. Bad! Later on I shorted it as it was holding below the lows for the day and shares were absorbing quite a bit at that level which made me think people who bought the offering wanted to get out. I shorted then and then when it broke under $71 I added in bigger size and it did come off a bit. I wanted to be patient because I thought this could really get going lower (that turned out to be near the bottom). But to protect profits I put a stop a bit higher that got me out. It is iffy as to whether this was the right idea or not. It ended up working in this scenario. This stuff really depends and sometimes it works and sometimes it doesn't. The mistake later on was not reshorting at vwap for an easy trade. I didn't do it out of fear which is stupid. Lesson: Good thing for sizing in. Bad for letting other trades affect this one and not reshorting when the opportunity was there.
SPY: Just a trade where I thought it would pullback after the parabolic move up and the huge volume. It didn't work so I stopped out for a tiny loss. It was worth a shot although on the daily timeframe it has clearly broken out so I should have taken that into account more so.
UHS: A lot of trades in this but it was a lot of fun to trade it. Too many ins and outs to go over but basically the lessons are: when in the heat of the moment like this make sure to look for spots to add in for a big win like this offered, after the down move is over don't short share absorbs because they will most likely breakout above it. Be quick with covers/sells although this was really tough with this stock.
Other stocks:
MYL and ALR: Both looked for a bounce since the news didn't seem bad. For MYL when it started coming off hard I took it off radar but I should have still looked at it more intently for a nice higher low pattern to get long and then potentially add to it. For ALR the news seemed like a rehash so it was worth a bounce attempt when I saw it having a higher low.
Things to remember:
1. Biggest takeaway however is still the need to disconnect from the money. I am getting much closer to that. Money doesn't matter. Just think about this as a fun game. Just do one good trade after another with no concern as to the PnL.
2. Whatever happens right at the open doesn't indicate what will happen at the rest of the day. So if you like something in a situation like this at a certain level then you should still take it.
3. When unsure just do less size and you can always scale in from there. Also, make a note of premkt levels more and know where HOD is.
4. Take into account the bigger timeframe.
5. Always be on the lookout for patterns later in the day like in the MYL example.
Tuesday, December 6, 2016
Trading Recap 12/6/16
Slight losing day. Should have been up but some stupidity took over. I must get to the point where the money doesn't affect me. I am getting there but it is a slow process. It is a process of eventually becoming so disgusted that I just don't give a fuck anymore. I believe I am getting to that stage. The rest will take care of itself.
TXMD: Going into the day it was trading as if the study was BS and based on what I was reading online, that is what it seemed. So that made me more short biased. At the open I was looking for a pop to vwap/premkt resistance to get in but it never got to that level. It started fading a bit then the $7 level started to absorb but then looked like it would break so I shorted when that broke under. I was looking for immediate followthrough. If I didn't get that then I would reevaluate but I was looking to give it 15 cents or so. It washed nicely but I was looking for it to fill the gap or get close to it if the results were really bogus. It washed to $6.50 quickly and I had a bid at .20. Unfortunately that ended up being it. But at the time I thought it could still go lower. I believe the level 2 was doing some absorbs so I added after it bounced on the flush but when it had no immediate followthrough and started bouncing I covered some and then took the rest off at breakeven because at that time I figured the flush was really it. Later on I traded it twice on two stupid occasions. The level 2 made it seem like it was doing one thing but it was just hard action to read so I got out for small losses on both occasions. The first time was stupid. The second time I panicked a little after shorting but should have held in because even though I didn't get the best price I wanted, it still looked ok. I ended up covering near the top of where it went after I shorted and it did go back and retest the flush low which is what I wanted at the very least. I saw it perk through $7 and then come back down and figured that would be a good entry but I didn't take it. I anticipated it and saw it based on what I have seen before but didn't take the trade which is a mistake. Honestly had I just kept my original position and left it on since it never triggered my stop although it did get to my price and I probably would have gotten out then for flat had I waited. Also, don't get so much into shorting breakdowns and buying breakouts as those should be reserved for certain scenarios. Stick to pops and dips - they are much safer and offer better risk/reward. So overall a few lessons: 1. as mentioned in the intro: don't give a fuck about the $. 2. perhaps I could have started in at the open when it looked like it was going to fade on smaller size then add bigger where I originally got in with house's money 3. I've decided it's better to just cover at least some as I need to build a bankroll now. I've come to the conclusion after much deliberation that as I mentioned before, some profits are better than no profits. Taking profits in pieces is good. 4. Short pops/buy dips usually and leave the other trades for other situations.
SGY: I was short biased based on the news and the fact that this had already squeezed out the past few days so this could fade further. I saw it have big volume at the open to the $6.50 range so shorted there and then saw $6.50 was absorbing on the offer so this was all around good. It went back down to $6 but I had a bigger picture patience in mind type of trade. It went back to my entry and I didn't like it as much so I got out for flat and then it had a fake high and was absorbing at $6.50 again so I got in again at a slightly better price. I put a stop at new highs but I should have just let it test although in the end it didn't matter. I was too afraid of losing money that I didn't give it over/under room as planned. So it stopped me out and then came back down. I thought I got faked out but it ended up coming back and making new highs. It ended up having little volume anyway. Lessons: The first and second short were fine and not covering was ok because you had a bigger picture in mind and really thought it could start to fade. The only part not ok was giving it a tight stop that got you out when that was a fakeout, even though later it ended up back up.
Z: I saw this running into chart resistance off of the news which didn't make any sense to me. It kept grinding higher though so I was going to avoid it but then the level 2 was showing good signs of a strong seller being there so I shorted in front. Now afterwards it kept looking extremely weird with it continuing to get bought back up and the seller would sometimes disappear so I didn't want to be involved and got out for flat but ended up offering a nice fade which I didn't capture. It offered a breakdown trade under $37 but I didn't want to touch it with a breakdown trade. However, for the entire fad down there was a persistent seller that kept coming down with huge offers. He kept getting filled though. I tried shorting it against vwap because of the big volume and the fact that the seller looked to still be there. It ended up just hovering around vwap. I gave it enough room and didn't want to stop out prematurely when there was no reason to. I saw the offers kept getting paid so I put a breakeven bid and got out on that little flush. I thought I had made a mistake but it ended up being just a dip and it eventually worked it's way back up. I could have been a nice long perhaps and then short on the fake breakout. I'm not sure if there is a lesson here because I wasn't sure what was going on in the morning. I really thought if it was going to fade it would have to stop everyone else out with a fake high then maybe fade but that wasn't the case.
DUST: Small flag breakout trade that I got out for flat when it looked like it was failing. It could have just been a dip back to retest but from what I have seen, the best flags usually just work and this one ended up not doing anything.
Other stocks:
NVCN: Good for a long on that flag breakout after low volume. I have to be on the lookout for that pattern more often on these low priced stocks.
CMG: Complete miss although I thought it would have to go higher but when it started peaking it was worth a shot.
Things to remember:
1. Don't give a fuck.
2. Take profits at good spots
3. Look for more pops/dips and not breakouts/breakdowns
TXMD: Going into the day it was trading as if the study was BS and based on what I was reading online, that is what it seemed. So that made me more short biased. At the open I was looking for a pop to vwap/premkt resistance to get in but it never got to that level. It started fading a bit then the $7 level started to absorb but then looked like it would break so I shorted when that broke under. I was looking for immediate followthrough. If I didn't get that then I would reevaluate but I was looking to give it 15 cents or so. It washed nicely but I was looking for it to fill the gap or get close to it if the results were really bogus. It washed to $6.50 quickly and I had a bid at .20. Unfortunately that ended up being it. But at the time I thought it could still go lower. I believe the level 2 was doing some absorbs so I added after it bounced on the flush but when it had no immediate followthrough and started bouncing I covered some and then took the rest off at breakeven because at that time I figured the flush was really it. Later on I traded it twice on two stupid occasions. The level 2 made it seem like it was doing one thing but it was just hard action to read so I got out for small losses on both occasions. The first time was stupid. The second time I panicked a little after shorting but should have held in because even though I didn't get the best price I wanted, it still looked ok. I ended up covering near the top of where it went after I shorted and it did go back and retest the flush low which is what I wanted at the very least. I saw it perk through $7 and then come back down and figured that would be a good entry but I didn't take it. I anticipated it and saw it based on what I have seen before but didn't take the trade which is a mistake. Honestly had I just kept my original position and left it on since it never triggered my stop although it did get to my price and I probably would have gotten out then for flat had I waited. Also, don't get so much into shorting breakdowns and buying breakouts as those should be reserved for certain scenarios. Stick to pops and dips - they are much safer and offer better risk/reward. So overall a few lessons: 1. as mentioned in the intro: don't give a fuck about the $. 2. perhaps I could have started in at the open when it looked like it was going to fade on smaller size then add bigger where I originally got in with house's money 3. I've decided it's better to just cover at least some as I need to build a bankroll now. I've come to the conclusion after much deliberation that as I mentioned before, some profits are better than no profits. Taking profits in pieces is good. 4. Short pops/buy dips usually and leave the other trades for other situations.
SGY: I was short biased based on the news and the fact that this had already squeezed out the past few days so this could fade further. I saw it have big volume at the open to the $6.50 range so shorted there and then saw $6.50 was absorbing on the offer so this was all around good. It went back down to $6 but I had a bigger picture patience in mind type of trade. It went back to my entry and I didn't like it as much so I got out for flat and then it had a fake high and was absorbing at $6.50 again so I got in again at a slightly better price. I put a stop at new highs but I should have just let it test although in the end it didn't matter. I was too afraid of losing money that I didn't give it over/under room as planned. So it stopped me out and then came back down. I thought I got faked out but it ended up coming back and making new highs. It ended up having little volume anyway. Lessons: The first and second short were fine and not covering was ok because you had a bigger picture in mind and really thought it could start to fade. The only part not ok was giving it a tight stop that got you out when that was a fakeout, even though later it ended up back up.
Z: I saw this running into chart resistance off of the news which didn't make any sense to me. It kept grinding higher though so I was going to avoid it but then the level 2 was showing good signs of a strong seller being there so I shorted in front. Now afterwards it kept looking extremely weird with it continuing to get bought back up and the seller would sometimes disappear so I didn't want to be involved and got out for flat but ended up offering a nice fade which I didn't capture. It offered a breakdown trade under $37 but I didn't want to touch it with a breakdown trade. However, for the entire fad down there was a persistent seller that kept coming down with huge offers. He kept getting filled though. I tried shorting it against vwap because of the big volume and the fact that the seller looked to still be there. It ended up just hovering around vwap. I gave it enough room and didn't want to stop out prematurely when there was no reason to. I saw the offers kept getting paid so I put a breakeven bid and got out on that little flush. I thought I had made a mistake but it ended up being just a dip and it eventually worked it's way back up. I could have been a nice long perhaps and then short on the fake breakout. I'm not sure if there is a lesson here because I wasn't sure what was going on in the morning. I really thought if it was going to fade it would have to stop everyone else out with a fake high then maybe fade but that wasn't the case.
DUST: Small flag breakout trade that I got out for flat when it looked like it was failing. It could have just been a dip back to retest but from what I have seen, the best flags usually just work and this one ended up not doing anything.
Other stocks:
NVCN: Good for a long on that flag breakout after low volume. I have to be on the lookout for that pattern more often on these low priced stocks.
CMG: Complete miss although I thought it would have to go higher but when it started peaking it was worth a shot.
Things to remember:
1. Don't give a fuck.
2. Take profits at good spots
3. Look for more pops/dips and not breakouts/breakdowns
Monday, December 5, 2016
Trading Recap 12/5/16
Today was a pretty boring day overall. I only did two trades and was essentially flat today. There were a couple of low-conviction scalp ideas that would have worked but overall nothing really perked my interest.
OPTT: I had this on watch to see how it would react. I was definitely short biased on this based on the news and the stock being a known turd. I had a feeling it was just a PR to sell more stock. At the open I was thinking about shorting it because it looked like it was done but it held up and then went higher and went to the premarket highs and passed it by a bit. I thought about shorting it here as it could be just a fake move as usual and I ended up being right on that but honestly I'm not sure why I didn't. I was about to put a stop short in if it started to fade off from that level but didn't for some reason. Most likely it was fear because I thought it could ramp higher because I saw strong L2 action. I think I should have tried it though because everything else about it seemed right in line as usual and the level 2 action wasn't crazy or anything like that. I think I psyched myself out. So that is a mistake - I have to remember to think in probabilities in order to negate any feelings of losing $ or being wrong. Anyway, what I ended up doing was shorting when it went to vwap for a move to almost fill the gap in the 3.30s. I figured this was the definite backside of the move. It did go lower but .60s were defending pretty well so I remember sizing down into that. But then when I saw .60s would break I put a short stop order for bigger size in order to capture a flush. I moved my stop to breakeven and from there it just sort of hanged around so I got out before it hit my stop. It ended up consolidating a bit before going lower much later in the day. So I ended up with a small profit on that. Later on in the day I heard it was being pumped up by a chat so I shorted it but it was holding up so I put a tight stop which got triggered and that was it. It did go higher later. As I said before, these late day moves almost never work but I thought this time it could be ok because it was a pump but I will just write these late day moves of completely. The only other lesson here is to again think in probabilities. It was nice that I sized in, it just didn't work on my timeframe.
UA: I tried going long for a breakout after hearing about the news but the breakout looked like it was failing so I got out for a tiny tiny loss. This was good. I looked into the news later on and saw that it wasn't as good as I thought so while the stock setup again for another potential move, I didn't get in again because I knew it wouldn't have any followthrough and this was correct. No lesson here I guess other than to fully understand the news.
Things to remember:
1. Probabilities!
OPTT: I had this on watch to see how it would react. I was definitely short biased on this based on the news and the stock being a known turd. I had a feeling it was just a PR to sell more stock. At the open I was thinking about shorting it because it looked like it was done but it held up and then went higher and went to the premarket highs and passed it by a bit. I thought about shorting it here as it could be just a fake move as usual and I ended up being right on that but honestly I'm not sure why I didn't. I was about to put a stop short in if it started to fade off from that level but didn't for some reason. Most likely it was fear because I thought it could ramp higher because I saw strong L2 action. I think I should have tried it though because everything else about it seemed right in line as usual and the level 2 action wasn't crazy or anything like that. I think I psyched myself out. So that is a mistake - I have to remember to think in probabilities in order to negate any feelings of losing $ or being wrong. Anyway, what I ended up doing was shorting when it went to vwap for a move to almost fill the gap in the 3.30s. I figured this was the definite backside of the move. It did go lower but .60s were defending pretty well so I remember sizing down into that. But then when I saw .60s would break I put a short stop order for bigger size in order to capture a flush. I moved my stop to breakeven and from there it just sort of hanged around so I got out before it hit my stop. It ended up consolidating a bit before going lower much later in the day. So I ended up with a small profit on that. Later on in the day I heard it was being pumped up by a chat so I shorted it but it was holding up so I put a tight stop which got triggered and that was it. It did go higher later. As I said before, these late day moves almost never work but I thought this time it could be ok because it was a pump but I will just write these late day moves of completely. The only other lesson here is to again think in probabilities. It was nice that I sized in, it just didn't work on my timeframe.
UA: I tried going long for a breakout after hearing about the news but the breakout looked like it was failing so I got out for a tiny tiny loss. This was good. I looked into the news later on and saw that it wasn't as good as I thought so while the stock setup again for another potential move, I didn't get in again because I knew it wouldn't have any followthrough and this was correct. No lesson here I guess other than to fully understand the news.
Things to remember:
1. Probabilities!
Saturday, December 3, 2016
Trading recap 12/2/16
Unfortunately I have back a decent chunk of Thursday but it wasn't due to any one particular trade. It was just everything I tried didn't work. There were some trades that I had no problem with trying (I lost the least one this), there were ones that were ok but now I know not to do after a few times of trying, and there were ones that I shouldn't have tried or at least been more cautious on. But I learned some things that I'll go over down below.
FIVE: I had this on watch due to the gap up and the fact that all earnings and guidance were pretty much exactly in-line with estimates and with the recent trend of stocks gapping up on earnings but not reporting stellar guidance and then fading, this was top watch for me. Had it gone to the top of the premkt highs I would have shorted it but it just kind of blipped up a bit then started coming off. I saw that 44.10 was an important premkt support area and if it failed I had a feeling this would just start to come off right at the open so I wanted to be in for a breakdown as I didn't think there would be any pops similar to BLUE. I got in as it was cracking and it did crack a bit. But then that got bought up again and when it got back above $44 I covered for flat. This was stupid as my risk should have been on vwap/$44/10-20 over/under as I was confident in it and had it popped it should have been another opportunity to add possibly. Anyway, I got out and then got right back in at the same price because I saw the mistake I had made. Now this time was different. I let it got for a while but there was a really stubborn absorbing bid at 43.45. I was confident in the setup and so I didn't cover at least some here but it did give me some pause. After it kept absorbing and went back up I put in a stop above $44 as this made me less confident in the setup and I wanted to play it safe. If it was going to fade it shouldn't have any huge buyers like that. So I got stopped for tiny, tiny losses overall so far. I decided to not bother with it unless that bid dropped and then I would short under it. It came back to it eventually and I put my stop under it but for some reason I got filled even though it never dropped - it didn't even fake stop and start again so that was weird. I was debating just taking it off for scratch but I decided to give it a little room but when it started ticking up I just got out and left it alone the rest of the day. So overall I was confident in the setup but it just didn't work for whatever reason due to some people buying it for some reason. My first entry was good and I wanted to be patient with it. I shouldn't have gotten out and instead added on the vwap retest. I think what I can do in future scenarios is to just cover at least some of it in cases like this and then add back if it breaks it. So that is a lesson going forward. I keep going back to one trade on OPTT that was a while ago where the bid was absorbing but I guess I was just stubborn and it worked out and it went lower. The difference there was that OPTT is a complete POS and everything that day was fading with all the sympathies. So just because it worked there doesn't mean it will work again.
SBUX: I thought the reaction to the news was way, way overblown and was looking to buy at good spots for a ride back to where it was the day before the news hit. I figured funds who were in this would use this as an opportunity to buy more and so that would help drive the price up. What ended up happening was similar to JACK where it made its huge move in the first 2minutes due to someone buying it all at the open or something and then the rest of the day did nothing (JACK made new highs later but that was due to a CC during the day). So I tried to do the same thing as I did on JACK which was buy at vwap and support. I gave it some room and then that didn't work. Then I tried again later in the day when it started perking but that was just a trap and I had a feeling it would be. I should have waited until the .25s-.30s held again because that was the inflection point. That would have never really gotten me in the trade again. I think I gave the second shot way too much room because it was either going to work or it wasn't at that point and as I mentioned before, buying breakouts during lull isn't a good idea most of the time. Better to have bought dips after the inflection point held. One other thing is that I put a stop buy for a breakout above the resistance in the morning but that never went. Again, similar to JACK, it made its move and that was it. So the lesson here is when a stock just makes a big move like that right at the open, don't buy dips or anything. Probably just forget it. You can try buying it when it is really off the highs (it looks exactly like JACK did minus the ramp later on).
SWHC: This was potentially a stupid trade. Sure it could have worked but it was a low probability trade when taking everything together and I think I got in because I was emboldened from BLUE the day before and how well shorting breakdowns worked. But everything I know about shorting breakdowns and the dangers that are present shouldn't be negated by one circumstance. Their earnings/guidance was mixed so there wasn't really a big catalyst to already propel it lower. I just had it on watch to potentially play it either way. When I saw a nice bear flag I figured I would try and short it for a move down to the recent low at around $21.04. But before I put on the trade, I said to myself: the ssr is on so this may not be a good trade. I should wait for a pop or something. So when it broke down I got in but kind of chased and missed a better entry so that was bad. I should have just avoided the trade but thought it would work of course. The other times shorting breakdowns worked was with big momentum or at least the SSR wasn't on. So while it can work with the SSR, you definitely have to be more cautious of it just in case. The fakeouts can happen on any stock, not just with SSR, but it's a greater possibility on it occurring with the SSR. I gave it 20 cents or so and then figured it was a fake out so I got out. I actually thought about going long on the dip and retest back to .50 but decided not to really trade anymore. It ended up going higher a bit but then faking out there and coming back under vwap. It then formed a longer pattern of just lower highs and consolidation until it broke lower and eventually went to my original target area. I thought about reshorting it as it looked weak again but decided against it but it would have worked. When a stock has a longer period of a pattern setting up, it has a better chance of working and almost always works. Lesson: Each trade is its own so don't assign what happened in prior trades to the current one at hand. Be more careful when shorting breakdowns with SSR being on.
LLY: After the news came out I saw the $68 offer absorb a huge amount of shares so I shorted in front of it with the hope it could go back to vwap. I figured this news if there was a seller present was just an opportunity for people to exit after the prior gap down. I gave it to it making new highs. It ended up working for a bit but then it kept getting bought up in the .60s area but I figured I would just let it work out and worst case stop out for a small loss. It ended up coming back and breaking that $68 and stopping me out. So again, everything is a probability and what may happen one time may not happen again. Maybe I could have taken profits in that area and then reassess if it broke lower. When I am down big I tend to want to make it all back with one trade. But I just have to take it trade by trade and not think about the PnL like that. I continue to go back and forth between saying I should take profits vs. I should let things works. Its really a constant battle. And honestly it all comes down to probabilities and what you think will help you in the long run and make you more profitable. I believe if I am ever uncertain I should at that point take some off.
P: I saw an absorbing bid after the second news so I bought in front of it thinking it could go. It popped a little but didn't make new highs so I got out for a small profit after moving my stop up.
EDU: Completely missed the big move in either direction. I didn't really know what to make of it so I just stayed away. The only trade on it was the short was it was consolidating and starting to head lower. Those I have seen work. It wasn't on my radar at that time I believe though or if it was I wasn't paying much attention. There were some other opportunities looking back at it during the move but it's ok. I ended up shorting on an absorbing offer after the big move in both directions was done. I got out for flat before it broke out because it was setting up like LLY was with it continuing to test and get through that seller.
Other stocks:
GIII: I didn't trade this but this had horrible earnings and even worse guidance and yet it ripped at the open. Just a note that to not be stubborn when the market doesn't agree with you.
ULTA: I completely missed this because I was with FIVE but teh fade was unreal. I was actually unsure whether to go long or short but I saw the breakdown opportunity a few times that would have worked really well. With ULTA and GIII, it goes to show things can go further than you think.
Things to work on/remember:
1. On stocks you are confident in and are still within risk parameters, especially on the breakdown trades when they go back to a real level, you can add there instead of covering if it comes back.
2. If uncertain about something like there is a refreshing bid or an offer in your way, possibly size down and you can always get back in.
3. When a stock makes its big move at the open, just forget about it for the rest of the day unless it retraces a significant portion of the move back to where it started at the open.
4. Each trade is its own so don't assign what happened in prior trades to the current one at hand.
5. Be more careful when shorting breakdowns with SSR being on - unless it has momentum like EDU.
6. When I am down big I tend to want to make it all back with one trade. But I just have to take it trade by trade and not think about the PnL like that.
7. Sometimes the mkt doesn't agree with you on certain things that you think are obvious.
8. PNL DOESN'T MATTER. PROCESS AND PROBABILITIES OVER EVERYTHING ELSE. DO NOT JUDGE YOURSELF BY PNL. THINK ABOUT WHAT YOU SAW, WHAT YOU DID, HOW YOU CAN IMPROVE BASED ON THE OPPORTUNITY OUT THERE.
9. "The ones who are progressing talk about their playbook trades and how well they are exploiting their opportunity set. They are getting better and better at running their plays and, every so often, they develop new plays as they see new patterns and fresh opportunity. The ones who aren't progressing talk about their feelings, how they missed the last move, whether the market will go up or down, etc."
10. The most successful traders can talk in detail about the patterns that they perceive in markets and how they have traded those patterns. .. The least successful traders talk about catching moves in markets and are not focused on particular patterns or setups. They let market movement define opportunity, rather than allow their definition of opportunity guide their involvement in the market.
Some other things:
1. Look for over/under key levels from premkt to determine long/short.
2. Look for what is happening after 10-1030 and if certain levels are holding over/under in afternoon.
3. Look for 2nd day plays with consolidations from day before to go off of.
FIVE: I had this on watch due to the gap up and the fact that all earnings and guidance were pretty much exactly in-line with estimates and with the recent trend of stocks gapping up on earnings but not reporting stellar guidance and then fading, this was top watch for me. Had it gone to the top of the premkt highs I would have shorted it but it just kind of blipped up a bit then started coming off. I saw that 44.10 was an important premkt support area and if it failed I had a feeling this would just start to come off right at the open so I wanted to be in for a breakdown as I didn't think there would be any pops similar to BLUE. I got in as it was cracking and it did crack a bit. But then that got bought up again and when it got back above $44 I covered for flat. This was stupid as my risk should have been on vwap/$44/10-20 over/under as I was confident in it and had it popped it should have been another opportunity to add possibly. Anyway, I got out and then got right back in at the same price because I saw the mistake I had made. Now this time was different. I let it got for a while but there was a really stubborn absorbing bid at 43.45. I was confident in the setup and so I didn't cover at least some here but it did give me some pause. After it kept absorbing and went back up I put in a stop above $44 as this made me less confident in the setup and I wanted to play it safe. If it was going to fade it shouldn't have any huge buyers like that. So I got stopped for tiny, tiny losses overall so far. I decided to not bother with it unless that bid dropped and then I would short under it. It came back to it eventually and I put my stop under it but for some reason I got filled even though it never dropped - it didn't even fake stop and start again so that was weird. I was debating just taking it off for scratch but I decided to give it a little room but when it started ticking up I just got out and left it alone the rest of the day. So overall I was confident in the setup but it just didn't work for whatever reason due to some people buying it for some reason. My first entry was good and I wanted to be patient with it. I shouldn't have gotten out and instead added on the vwap retest. I think what I can do in future scenarios is to just cover at least some of it in cases like this and then add back if it breaks it. So that is a lesson going forward. I keep going back to one trade on OPTT that was a while ago where the bid was absorbing but I guess I was just stubborn and it worked out and it went lower. The difference there was that OPTT is a complete POS and everything that day was fading with all the sympathies. So just because it worked there doesn't mean it will work again.
SBUX: I thought the reaction to the news was way, way overblown and was looking to buy at good spots for a ride back to where it was the day before the news hit. I figured funds who were in this would use this as an opportunity to buy more and so that would help drive the price up. What ended up happening was similar to JACK where it made its huge move in the first 2minutes due to someone buying it all at the open or something and then the rest of the day did nothing (JACK made new highs later but that was due to a CC during the day). So I tried to do the same thing as I did on JACK which was buy at vwap and support. I gave it some room and then that didn't work. Then I tried again later in the day when it started perking but that was just a trap and I had a feeling it would be. I should have waited until the .25s-.30s held again because that was the inflection point. That would have never really gotten me in the trade again. I think I gave the second shot way too much room because it was either going to work or it wasn't at that point and as I mentioned before, buying breakouts during lull isn't a good idea most of the time. Better to have bought dips after the inflection point held. One other thing is that I put a stop buy for a breakout above the resistance in the morning but that never went. Again, similar to JACK, it made its move and that was it. So the lesson here is when a stock just makes a big move like that right at the open, don't buy dips or anything. Probably just forget it. You can try buying it when it is really off the highs (it looks exactly like JACK did minus the ramp later on).
SWHC: This was potentially a stupid trade. Sure it could have worked but it was a low probability trade when taking everything together and I think I got in because I was emboldened from BLUE the day before and how well shorting breakdowns worked. But everything I know about shorting breakdowns and the dangers that are present shouldn't be negated by one circumstance. Their earnings/guidance was mixed so there wasn't really a big catalyst to already propel it lower. I just had it on watch to potentially play it either way. When I saw a nice bear flag I figured I would try and short it for a move down to the recent low at around $21.04. But before I put on the trade, I said to myself: the ssr is on so this may not be a good trade. I should wait for a pop or something. So when it broke down I got in but kind of chased and missed a better entry so that was bad. I should have just avoided the trade but thought it would work of course. The other times shorting breakdowns worked was with big momentum or at least the SSR wasn't on. So while it can work with the SSR, you definitely have to be more cautious of it just in case. The fakeouts can happen on any stock, not just with SSR, but it's a greater possibility on it occurring with the SSR. I gave it 20 cents or so and then figured it was a fake out so I got out. I actually thought about going long on the dip and retest back to .50 but decided not to really trade anymore. It ended up going higher a bit but then faking out there and coming back under vwap. It then formed a longer pattern of just lower highs and consolidation until it broke lower and eventually went to my original target area. I thought about reshorting it as it looked weak again but decided against it but it would have worked. When a stock has a longer period of a pattern setting up, it has a better chance of working and almost always works. Lesson: Each trade is its own so don't assign what happened in prior trades to the current one at hand. Be more careful when shorting breakdowns with SSR being on.
LLY: After the news came out I saw the $68 offer absorb a huge amount of shares so I shorted in front of it with the hope it could go back to vwap. I figured this news if there was a seller present was just an opportunity for people to exit after the prior gap down. I gave it to it making new highs. It ended up working for a bit but then it kept getting bought up in the .60s area but I figured I would just let it work out and worst case stop out for a small loss. It ended up coming back and breaking that $68 and stopping me out. So again, everything is a probability and what may happen one time may not happen again. Maybe I could have taken profits in that area and then reassess if it broke lower. When I am down big I tend to want to make it all back with one trade. But I just have to take it trade by trade and not think about the PnL like that. I continue to go back and forth between saying I should take profits vs. I should let things works. Its really a constant battle. And honestly it all comes down to probabilities and what you think will help you in the long run and make you more profitable. I believe if I am ever uncertain I should at that point take some off.
P: I saw an absorbing bid after the second news so I bought in front of it thinking it could go. It popped a little but didn't make new highs so I got out for a small profit after moving my stop up.
EDU: Completely missed the big move in either direction. I didn't really know what to make of it so I just stayed away. The only trade on it was the short was it was consolidating and starting to head lower. Those I have seen work. It wasn't on my radar at that time I believe though or if it was I wasn't paying much attention. There were some other opportunities looking back at it during the move but it's ok. I ended up shorting on an absorbing offer after the big move in both directions was done. I got out for flat before it broke out because it was setting up like LLY was with it continuing to test and get through that seller.
Other stocks:
GIII: I didn't trade this but this had horrible earnings and even worse guidance and yet it ripped at the open. Just a note that to not be stubborn when the market doesn't agree with you.
ULTA: I completely missed this because I was with FIVE but teh fade was unreal. I was actually unsure whether to go long or short but I saw the breakdown opportunity a few times that would have worked really well. With ULTA and GIII, it goes to show things can go further than you think.
Things to work on/remember:
1. On stocks you are confident in and are still within risk parameters, especially on the breakdown trades when they go back to a real level, you can add there instead of covering if it comes back.
2. If uncertain about something like there is a refreshing bid or an offer in your way, possibly size down and you can always get back in.
3. When a stock makes its big move at the open, just forget about it for the rest of the day unless it retraces a significant portion of the move back to where it started at the open.
4. Each trade is its own so don't assign what happened in prior trades to the current one at hand.
5. Be more careful when shorting breakdowns with SSR being on - unless it has momentum like EDU.
6. When I am down big I tend to want to make it all back with one trade. But I just have to take it trade by trade and not think about the PnL like that.
7. Sometimes the mkt doesn't agree with you on certain things that you think are obvious.
8. PNL DOESN'T MATTER. PROCESS AND PROBABILITIES OVER EVERYTHING ELSE. DO NOT JUDGE YOURSELF BY PNL. THINK ABOUT WHAT YOU SAW, WHAT YOU DID, HOW YOU CAN IMPROVE BASED ON THE OPPORTUNITY OUT THERE.
9. "The ones who are progressing talk about their playbook trades and how well they are exploiting their opportunity set. They are getting better and better at running their plays and, every so often, they develop new plays as they see new patterns and fresh opportunity. The ones who aren't progressing talk about their feelings, how they missed the last move, whether the market will go up or down, etc."
10. The most successful traders can talk in detail about the patterns that they perceive in markets and how they have traded those patterns. .. The least successful traders talk about catching moves in markets and are not focused on particular patterns or setups. They let market movement define opportunity, rather than allow their definition of opportunity guide their involvement in the market.
Some other things:
1. Look for over/under key levels from premkt to determine long/short.
2. Look for what is happening after 10-1030 and if certain levels are holding over/under in afternoon.
3. Look for 2nd day plays with consolidations from day before to go off of.
Thursday, December 1, 2016
Trading Recap 12/1/16
Today was a very decent day that I pulled together. Some things prevented it from being even better but that's alright. The only thing I didn't like was that I became too results oriented and cared about my results/profits when I should just be focusing on the process and if the trades were good or not. I have to continue to be in a probabilities' mindset and trust that in the long run things will work out. Mistakes are ok to make and shouldn't be seen as disastrous (which I have worked on a lot and am getting there). Expectations should be muted and I must fully accept the risk each time I enter a trade. Positive self talk and staying in the present will help me with these.
EXPR: I saw the very bad guidance and the fact that it was gapping below any support. It looked like a good candidate for continued fade. I knew that this was a tricky stock to trade and needed to short pops only based on evidence from last time on trading it. So it started ticking lower at the open below some premkt support which ended up being a big trap and ripped up. I saw it going to the premkt high area which I thought was a good place to start in. I wanted to leave room in case it went to $12 so I went in with 50 shares and I told myself I would add at $12 if need be. Where I shorted ended up being near the top so when it got under vwap and the offers were absorbing, I added in more. I thought about adding more and putting a stop above the absorbing offer but I chose not to because as I have seen in the past, and this is what happened here as well, it goes a bit past where it absorbed then stops and reverses in your direction. I also thought about putting a breakeven stop but I didn't do that because even if it went higher above vwap a bit, I was confident in it. I didn't do more shares in case it did go higher to form a potential lower high. I knew this had the potential to be a wippy stock so I wanted to stay smaller. Once it cracked under I covered some just incase. It was nearing all time lows and I didn't think it would crack under it so I didn't know how much lower it could go. It popped up a bit but I was hesitant in adding again since I didn't feel it really peaked the main support but it did end up going lower and I covered it where it last printed at the low in premkt. It then consolidated and went lower but it was a slow fade and wasn't so convincing so I left it alone afterwards. Overall great trade with no real complaints.
BLUE: My first thought going into it was short it because this was only Phase I news and gap ups like this are usually for Phase III. It was also gapping right into resistance as well so I thought it would be a good play but I wasn't opposed to going long if it setup that way. I let it play out in the morning. It spiked up into some resistance but I didn't know at this point what would happen so I just watched. Then it started fading off and I got the impression that spike was a fake move. I saw 73.50 was an important level so I put a stop below to try and short it. I put my bid where I thought it would flush to right away for a scalp but what happened was I almost got filled but it didn't reach my bid on the initial flush and then it came back above where I shorted it for a little which triggered my stop. Then it went lower. So lesson #1 here is to give things more room on these types of plays because they do go back above sometimes. 20-30 cents above the price seems to be enough in most cases like this - if it was enough on a stock like this that moved a lot it should be for other stocks. Another lesson was to potentially be in big picture mode instead of scalp mode. I was in scalp mode because it was moving so much and I thought it would provide other shorts along the way and plus the range was wide so each time I was trying to get a point move. It ended up forming another base that I shorted and it missed my immediate bid again by a few cents and then came back to my entry. I was a little worried but then it got back under the next whole # so I put a stop at a random spot above the whole # if it got back above. It did and I got out for a very slight scalp and then it proceeded to fade even more. So learning my lessons from the first two times I tried it a third time and the third time was a charm. I gave it more room and respected that it would move a lot and was patient with my bid that eventually got filled. So overall the lesson here is to give these more room and just let it play out. Also have a bigger picture in mind because had I kept adding on each base break I would have racked up a really huge profit.
NVDA: Just a slight trade that was literally a second. After missing the entire move up which I will talk about after, I saw this big bid that kept tracking it up and so finally I decided to buy in front of it and put a stop below it but I knew it wouldn't work mostly and I risked very very tiny on it to see because it was a major chase on the chart. But that's whatever. What is more important is not playing the true bounce. This setup a lot cleaner than the other tech stocks that were also fading at the same time. This had a huge distinctive volume candle on the flush below $85 that could have been scooped. My thought process was this doesn't have to be it, big volume doesn't mean the move is over. But again, I have to think in probabilities! That is key. I could have tried to get some around $84.80 and give it to .50 just in case it had that extra small leg lower. It had a very nice pattern etc so it was worth a shot. I even predicted we would shake out some people and double dip to $85 or slightly below which we did to shake out some people and then it would go up which is exactly what happened. Overall, the lesson here is to just think in probabilities and know that the edge is in your favor. Don't equate past experiences with the current opportunity at hand.
SM: Just tried a breakout when oil names looked like they would go higher and SM had a very good pattern. It worked for a little but never reached my first profit target area and I just took it off when it had no followthrough and it was clearly a trap. It was worth a shot for sure and I gave it enough room so it's ok. Nothing to mention here.
Other stocks:
OAS/CRC/DG: Essentially the things to learn from these stocks is if they consolidate at higher/lower key levels during midday they are almost always a good long/short then in these scenarios. OAS was consolidated below key intraday support and then went red. CRC and DG were also good longs as they got bought back up after being lower in the morning.
Things to remember/work on:
1. Work on the process and don't worry about the results. You can't change what the market does but you can change your attitude/expectations/trades.
2. THINK IN PROBABILITIES!
3. No expecations
4. Stay in the present and have positive self talk
5. Have a bigger picture in mind some of the time (balance with taking profits)
6. Give these breakout/down trades 20-30 cents (price of stock pending)
7. Don't equate past experiences with the current situation
8. Stocks holding above/below key areas intraday are good longs/shorts as mentioned above.
EXPR: I saw the very bad guidance and the fact that it was gapping below any support. It looked like a good candidate for continued fade. I knew that this was a tricky stock to trade and needed to short pops only based on evidence from last time on trading it. So it started ticking lower at the open below some premkt support which ended up being a big trap and ripped up. I saw it going to the premkt high area which I thought was a good place to start in. I wanted to leave room in case it went to $12 so I went in with 50 shares and I told myself I would add at $12 if need be. Where I shorted ended up being near the top so when it got under vwap and the offers were absorbing, I added in more. I thought about adding more and putting a stop above the absorbing offer but I chose not to because as I have seen in the past, and this is what happened here as well, it goes a bit past where it absorbed then stops and reverses in your direction. I also thought about putting a breakeven stop but I didn't do that because even if it went higher above vwap a bit, I was confident in it. I didn't do more shares in case it did go higher to form a potential lower high. I knew this had the potential to be a wippy stock so I wanted to stay smaller. Once it cracked under I covered some just incase. It was nearing all time lows and I didn't think it would crack under it so I didn't know how much lower it could go. It popped up a bit but I was hesitant in adding again since I didn't feel it really peaked the main support but it did end up going lower and I covered it where it last printed at the low in premkt. It then consolidated and went lower but it was a slow fade and wasn't so convincing so I left it alone afterwards. Overall great trade with no real complaints.
BLUE: My first thought going into it was short it because this was only Phase I news and gap ups like this are usually for Phase III. It was also gapping right into resistance as well so I thought it would be a good play but I wasn't opposed to going long if it setup that way. I let it play out in the morning. It spiked up into some resistance but I didn't know at this point what would happen so I just watched. Then it started fading off and I got the impression that spike was a fake move. I saw 73.50 was an important level so I put a stop below to try and short it. I put my bid where I thought it would flush to right away for a scalp but what happened was I almost got filled but it didn't reach my bid on the initial flush and then it came back above where I shorted it for a little which triggered my stop. Then it went lower. So lesson #1 here is to give things more room on these types of plays because they do go back above sometimes. 20-30 cents above the price seems to be enough in most cases like this - if it was enough on a stock like this that moved a lot it should be for other stocks. Another lesson was to potentially be in big picture mode instead of scalp mode. I was in scalp mode because it was moving so much and I thought it would provide other shorts along the way and plus the range was wide so each time I was trying to get a point move. It ended up forming another base that I shorted and it missed my immediate bid again by a few cents and then came back to my entry. I was a little worried but then it got back under the next whole # so I put a stop at a random spot above the whole # if it got back above. It did and I got out for a very slight scalp and then it proceeded to fade even more. So learning my lessons from the first two times I tried it a third time and the third time was a charm. I gave it more room and respected that it would move a lot and was patient with my bid that eventually got filled. So overall the lesson here is to give these more room and just let it play out. Also have a bigger picture in mind because had I kept adding on each base break I would have racked up a really huge profit.
NVDA: Just a slight trade that was literally a second. After missing the entire move up which I will talk about after, I saw this big bid that kept tracking it up and so finally I decided to buy in front of it and put a stop below it but I knew it wouldn't work mostly and I risked very very tiny on it to see because it was a major chase on the chart. But that's whatever. What is more important is not playing the true bounce. This setup a lot cleaner than the other tech stocks that were also fading at the same time. This had a huge distinctive volume candle on the flush below $85 that could have been scooped. My thought process was this doesn't have to be it, big volume doesn't mean the move is over. But again, I have to think in probabilities! That is key. I could have tried to get some around $84.80 and give it to .50 just in case it had that extra small leg lower. It had a very nice pattern etc so it was worth a shot. I even predicted we would shake out some people and double dip to $85 or slightly below which we did to shake out some people and then it would go up which is exactly what happened. Overall, the lesson here is to just think in probabilities and know that the edge is in your favor. Don't equate past experiences with the current opportunity at hand.
SM: Just tried a breakout when oil names looked like they would go higher and SM had a very good pattern. It worked for a little but never reached my first profit target area and I just took it off when it had no followthrough and it was clearly a trap. It was worth a shot for sure and I gave it enough room so it's ok. Nothing to mention here.
Other stocks:
OAS/CRC/DG: Essentially the things to learn from these stocks is if they consolidate at higher/lower key levels during midday they are almost always a good long/short then in these scenarios. OAS was consolidated below key intraday support and then went red. CRC and DG were also good longs as they got bought back up after being lower in the morning.
Things to remember/work on:
1. Work on the process and don't worry about the results. You can't change what the market does but you can change your attitude/expectations/trades.
2. THINK IN PROBABILITIES!
3. No expecations
4. Stay in the present and have positive self talk
5. Have a bigger picture in mind some of the time (balance with taking profits)
6. Give these breakout/down trades 20-30 cents (price of stock pending)
7. Don't equate past experiences with the current situation
8. Stocks holding above/below key areas intraday are good longs/shorts as mentioned above.
Wednesday, November 30, 2016
Trading Recap 11/30/16
There was a lot of opportunity today that I unfortunately missed out on, although I did have size in one name at one point and was trying to be patient but my thesis about the overall trend proved wrong so I got out for flat. I was up for the day but nowhere near what I was up unrealized. I really had the conviction to stay in full size for what I thought would be a decent move in my direction but maybe for now I should at least take some off at certain spots just to pay myself as mentioned before. It is better to have some profit than none at all I guess. Other than that, there were times where I was afraid to pull the trigger once in the morning which would have been a huge gain but I guess I snapped out of that later on.
UWTI: I originally thought that we would get an all day fade in oil because a lot of the move seemed priced in and I thought there would be people chasing the move. In addition OPEC doesn't have to follow any agreements made and history has shown this so overall I thought it would be a sell the news scenario. While there hasn't been an OPEC deal in many years, I thought the markets would discount the face value of the meeting much more. I was initially hesitant right at the open to do anything because I wanted to see more clues. I saw it was under the premarket support and peaking which was ok. What got me in was the fake high at the time above vwap and then it starting to come off. I knew the OPEC meeting was at 10am so I thought at that time things would start fading. I wanted to be in before then in case we got a big flush. I put my stop at breakeven in case there was a spike up. Before the meeting though, my stop got triggered and I was out but it started to run into 10AM anyway and never really looked back. Overall, my bias was wrong for sure but I wasn't so stubborn to stick with it. I was open to anything happening but I gave it a shot. While my breakeven stop might have been due to a fear of losing money, I just put it in case there was a spike up in the hopes of getting filled early. No lesson here I think. You had a thesis and you gave it a shot.
OAS: This was the stock that I was up a decent amount on but ended up going flat on it. Firstly, I missed the big spike right at the open for an easy scalp. I thought about shorting it when it was under vwap but didn't think that would he a good entry and rather have waited for a better idea of what was going on or at least a better price. When OAS was making a nHOD past the stuff at the open, it didn't seem to have much followthrough so I tried shorting some size and giving it a few cents thinking it made its fake breakout and could then go lower. But I was stupid and gave it a few cents only instead of giving it a bit more because I was essentially predicting this would be a fake breakout while it was happening, so I didn't know how high it could go. So I ended up stopping out 2 cents from the high at that time. Then I saw it starting to come off and I saw a random big bid so I figured that would be my trigger to get back in with risk to HOD. I had less size this time of course but I got in. I thought we could get an all day fade so I was looking to short pops along the way for a bigger picture idea. Another thing to note is that the stock offered a perfect setup of when it actually faded instead of anticipating what was going to happen like I did. While it was hovering around my price I thought about taking it off but I let it go to see what would happen. I didn't want to get scared out for no reason. Don't be afraid of losses and the minute action at the beginning of the trade doesn't matter. Anyway, it started to fade off and it got under vwap. I decided to add on a pop to vwap. When I added I was a little nervous because I didn't want to ruin the profit I had but I knew I was confident in it at the time and I had to size in when I could. It was a decent entry and it came off from there so I thought that was it. But it just went to the same low as before and started rebounding and hit my breakeven stop and never looked back. I knew that if it was going to fade in the manner I thought, it shouldn't get back to my price. So while I had ok entries my thesis didn't pan out. Later on I saw OAS flagging and thought about buying when it broke above the trendline but that never worked for me since it would get rejected right away and it was a bad entry unless it just kept going up. That is what this did though and while it would have been a nice profit, it's tough to know that it would just keep going like it did and not dip first or something. Lessons: Don't predict, react. It's tough to say whether to take profits or not at quicker intervals on something like this but like I said in the intro, some profit is better than nothing I suppose. Don't be afraid of losses.
CRC: Big miss in the morning. My mistake was not seeing the short % float in the morning on all these oil names and realizing this was one of the more heavily shorted. So this was all a squeeze in the morning. Had I known maybe I wouldn't have to tried to short it but either way.. I thought it was up way too much and then it opened and it ripped. In the 16.40s I thought about shorting it since it seemed so overdone. I was completely right but was afraid it could go higher and was unsure. This was definitely a mistake and a higher probability trade than the other stocks. This faded very nicely and offered opportunity to add along the way. So the mistake of fearing losses and the what if is definitely a big issue that must be worked on more so. I thought about shorting it at vwap or when it got to 15.40 but it never got there right away. It did offer a nice pattern where I did eventually short. Here, I did take half off at the low in case that was it and it was a good thing I did because that was it and I stopped out on the rest. I didn't touch it the rest of the day as I couldn't get a good read on it although it seems like shorts used this as an opportunity to cover because it closed at the highs. I thought this could give up its gap but that was wrong of course. Lessons: Look at short % and same as above, no fear of losses. No hesitation.
SPLK: This was my main winner. I completely missed the morning move but then saw it at vwap and it formed a nice base. I got short some extra size on the base break in case it just faded off. I saw the earnings/guidance were really meh. On the daily chart as well it was gapping into resistance. Earnings stocks with meh guidance and earnings that have these gap ups usually get faded because there are sellers, especially once it gets to an area of nice resistance. So I got stopped out on half my shares because it went back above 60 but then came right back down. It was worth a shot. Maybe I should have given it a few more cents - I'll have to experiment with doing that. I ended up adding again once it broke another base to the downside. Anyway, I took some off when it went to the premarket low and then put a breakeven stop on the rest. It made a bit of a fake low then came back and consolidated and then perked back up above a level where I put my stop so I got out on the rest of my shares. I saw it went back to $60 for a potential reshort but I didn't bother although I thought it could retest the lows from the morning. It did give some opportunities to short later on but I didn't take it but it really outperformed my idea of what it could do because it gave up its entire gap. Lesson: Experiment with the stops over/under a level. Gap up into resistance on non blow out #s are shorts unless they consolidate at higher levels. The reshort later on was worth a shot I guess but whatever.
Things to work on:
1. NO fear / hesitation
2. Take profits in certain scenarios on at least some of your position.
3. Don't predict, react.
4. Earnings gap ups into resistance on non-blow out #s are shorts most of the time.
UWTI: I originally thought that we would get an all day fade in oil because a lot of the move seemed priced in and I thought there would be people chasing the move. In addition OPEC doesn't have to follow any agreements made and history has shown this so overall I thought it would be a sell the news scenario. While there hasn't been an OPEC deal in many years, I thought the markets would discount the face value of the meeting much more. I was initially hesitant right at the open to do anything because I wanted to see more clues. I saw it was under the premarket support and peaking which was ok. What got me in was the fake high at the time above vwap and then it starting to come off. I knew the OPEC meeting was at 10am so I thought at that time things would start fading. I wanted to be in before then in case we got a big flush. I put my stop at breakeven in case there was a spike up. Before the meeting though, my stop got triggered and I was out but it started to run into 10AM anyway and never really looked back. Overall, my bias was wrong for sure but I wasn't so stubborn to stick with it. I was open to anything happening but I gave it a shot. While my breakeven stop might have been due to a fear of losing money, I just put it in case there was a spike up in the hopes of getting filled early. No lesson here I think. You had a thesis and you gave it a shot.
OAS: This was the stock that I was up a decent amount on but ended up going flat on it. Firstly, I missed the big spike right at the open for an easy scalp. I thought about shorting it when it was under vwap but didn't think that would he a good entry and rather have waited for a better idea of what was going on or at least a better price. When OAS was making a nHOD past the stuff at the open, it didn't seem to have much followthrough so I tried shorting some size and giving it a few cents thinking it made its fake breakout and could then go lower. But I was stupid and gave it a few cents only instead of giving it a bit more because I was essentially predicting this would be a fake breakout while it was happening, so I didn't know how high it could go. So I ended up stopping out 2 cents from the high at that time. Then I saw it starting to come off and I saw a random big bid so I figured that would be my trigger to get back in with risk to HOD. I had less size this time of course but I got in. I thought we could get an all day fade so I was looking to short pops along the way for a bigger picture idea. Another thing to note is that the stock offered a perfect setup of when it actually faded instead of anticipating what was going to happen like I did. While it was hovering around my price I thought about taking it off but I let it go to see what would happen. I didn't want to get scared out for no reason. Don't be afraid of losses and the minute action at the beginning of the trade doesn't matter. Anyway, it started to fade off and it got under vwap. I decided to add on a pop to vwap. When I added I was a little nervous because I didn't want to ruin the profit I had but I knew I was confident in it at the time and I had to size in when I could. It was a decent entry and it came off from there so I thought that was it. But it just went to the same low as before and started rebounding and hit my breakeven stop and never looked back. I knew that if it was going to fade in the manner I thought, it shouldn't get back to my price. So while I had ok entries my thesis didn't pan out. Later on I saw OAS flagging and thought about buying when it broke above the trendline but that never worked for me since it would get rejected right away and it was a bad entry unless it just kept going up. That is what this did though and while it would have been a nice profit, it's tough to know that it would just keep going like it did and not dip first or something. Lessons: Don't predict, react. It's tough to say whether to take profits or not at quicker intervals on something like this but like I said in the intro, some profit is better than nothing I suppose. Don't be afraid of losses.
CRC: Big miss in the morning. My mistake was not seeing the short % float in the morning on all these oil names and realizing this was one of the more heavily shorted. So this was all a squeeze in the morning. Had I known maybe I wouldn't have to tried to short it but either way.. I thought it was up way too much and then it opened and it ripped. In the 16.40s I thought about shorting it since it seemed so overdone. I was completely right but was afraid it could go higher and was unsure. This was definitely a mistake and a higher probability trade than the other stocks. This faded very nicely and offered opportunity to add along the way. So the mistake of fearing losses and the what if is definitely a big issue that must be worked on more so. I thought about shorting it at vwap or when it got to 15.40 but it never got there right away. It did offer a nice pattern where I did eventually short. Here, I did take half off at the low in case that was it and it was a good thing I did because that was it and I stopped out on the rest. I didn't touch it the rest of the day as I couldn't get a good read on it although it seems like shorts used this as an opportunity to cover because it closed at the highs. I thought this could give up its gap but that was wrong of course. Lessons: Look at short % and same as above, no fear of losses. No hesitation.
SPLK: This was my main winner. I completely missed the morning move but then saw it at vwap and it formed a nice base. I got short some extra size on the base break in case it just faded off. I saw the earnings/guidance were really meh. On the daily chart as well it was gapping into resistance. Earnings stocks with meh guidance and earnings that have these gap ups usually get faded because there are sellers, especially once it gets to an area of nice resistance. So I got stopped out on half my shares because it went back above 60 but then came right back down. It was worth a shot. Maybe I should have given it a few more cents - I'll have to experiment with doing that. I ended up adding again once it broke another base to the downside. Anyway, I took some off when it went to the premarket low and then put a breakeven stop on the rest. It made a bit of a fake low then came back and consolidated and then perked back up above a level where I put my stop so I got out on the rest of my shares. I saw it went back to $60 for a potential reshort but I didn't bother although I thought it could retest the lows from the morning. It did give some opportunities to short later on but I didn't take it but it really outperformed my idea of what it could do because it gave up its entire gap. Lesson: Experiment with the stops over/under a level. Gap up into resistance on non blow out #s are shorts unless they consolidate at higher levels. The reshort later on was worth a shot I guess but whatever.
Things to work on:
1. NO fear / hesitation
2. Take profits in certain scenarios on at least some of your position.
3. Don't predict, react.
4. Earnings gap ups into resistance on non-blow out #s are shorts most of the time.
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