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Saturday, January 23, 2016

Trading Recap 1/22/15

Well I took some of the trades that I thought were good trades. Essentially broke even/slight loss on both (lost more on commission in both cases) and had I taken some of the other trades I wanted and tried to get filled on it would have been a good day. But the losses don't matter. I don't really even care about the losses to be honest. I feel so much better and more proud of myself for just pushing the damn button whenever I liked something. The stuff I said about not caring about my streak and if I lose money? All true. I felt really good and can't wait for Monday.

White arrows are entries followed by exits.

WYNN: I had this on long watch for dips due to the nice wedge that it was forming on the 15min chart and the fact that it can have nice moves and is honestly pretty thin for a larger cap stock. When it gapped up I took it off radar but then looked at it again and saw that it had flushed and reclaimed some intraday support. When it retested that support on the dip I went long. Essentially it just chopped around and it looked like it would flush at any second only to be bought back up again and look like it would break out. It kept doing this until I said if it doesn't break out on the 4th or so attempt then I'm out. So it tried to get above that .50/.60 level but couldn't so I got out for close to breakeven. It was a good decision and it wasn't out of panic or emotion because I had given it enough time and while it was toying with me the entire time I let it pan out. It never did breakout and did go lower. This might not have been the best of trades but my idea was the wedge breakout, flush and reclaim of support, and the fact that the SPY was going higher so I figured this could get a nice move upward.


SUNE: I also had this on watch and I either wanted to join a trend long for a bounce since it looked like it had reclaimed levels of support on the daily chart and put in a nice bottom or if $2.7s peaked and failed to go in for the short after the gap up since I know most gap ups in this are sold off. It mostly screwed around and then I saw the news about Blackrock which caused a nice spike towards $2.7 and failed. These news items are sometimes used as exits and with the huge volume that came in but it couldn't move I figured this might be the case. I might have chased a little when I couldn't get a fill but I wanted it to prove itself that there was no follow through after the news. When I got that confirmation I decided to get in. It made nLODs and tried to go red but couldn't and then it started to come back up quickly. I wanted to give it some time but I figured that if it wasn't just straight flushing then my idea was invalid and it wouldn't be what I thought would happen. I wish I looked closer at the 1min though since it formed that same pattern I saw on ZFGN so instead of covering near the top because I figured it could go higher, I could have waited it out and been more patient and got breakeven instead of a slight loss. It ended up doing nothing the rest of the day.


ALKS: I was looking for any pops/failed follow through to get short on this. Shorts cover and that provides an opportunity to short after their buying pressure exhausts. I was looking at the $34.5 level since that was the first possible resistance level. Once I saw it had peaked there I looked for lower highs which came but unfortunately my TOS crashed and it took a while to restart so I missed this.


ZFGN: I was looking for any pops/failed follow through to short this since most of the move was a squeeze and the squeezes is done and the backside is in. It flushed at the open and then it started to hold a bit so I took it off radar but then checked it out later in the day and noticed it had stuffed at the $9.5 level which is a potential major resistance area. From there I wanted to see the uptrend fail and lower highs. Ideally I would have started in  but I wanted to see a lower high first and it peak at the $9.3 level. Instead it just flushed straight down. It came back and my friend shorted it when it was hovering around r/g and it made nLODs so that was good. To me it looked like it was holding r/g again but when it peaked r/g afterward it was good.


General thesis on oil names/DWTI: I was looking at oil names for either a continued bounce and to go long on dips if there was a trend or to short any weakness especially if oil fell again. I was mostly looking for a short though because the oil numbers released were pretty bad and yet we still bounced. It felt like it needed any excuse to bounce and that when the chasers/late shorts got squeezed out it would fall right back. This wasn't the case however with oil making new highs the oil stocks like MRO and OAS were relatively weak and they would have been good shorts. I was looking at OAS's chart and it looked like it had a nice failed breakout and would continue lower. Later in the day though, I saw oil continuing to make new highs so I took a look at DWTI and saw it looked really good for a short. It based nicely through the day and now cracked. I thought about shorting any retest assuming that if oil was still making new highs then it was at least in the short term still strong and I could short DWTI. I didn't take the trade because I had never done a play like this before but it worked out really well anyway.


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