Today was a positive day, not as much as yesterday but still ok. A few winners and losers. Some trades I didn't take that would have worked and some that may not have worked. Overall my hit rate is still pretty good on my ideas generated overall - execution is something that still needs to be worked on and giving things enough room. Some trades today would have worked overall had I not stopped out and given it to some other level. Sometimes that works out and sometimes it doesn't.
AUPH: I got a decent short entry in the morning because it looked like it stuffed and held below the prior resistance in premkt. I stopped out when it made new highs. Later on I saw that it made a penny above all time highs and thought about shorting there which ended up being the top but decided against it. Later on after it dipped and ripped it kept stuffing so I thought about shorting it then but thought that there were no bagholders in the stock and that it was only potentially shorts in it. But that didn't stop it from going lower though. So overall a few things here: 1. I could have potentially added to AUPH by looking at the longer time frame chart and based my risk on that all time high. Or I could have shorted it again higher. The reason I didn't was because of #2. 2. Even though a stock is at highs and there may not be any bagholders in this - that doesn't mean it can't go lower at least intraday. So don't use that as an excuse to not get in as based on today's action and other stock's action like NVFY there are other factors at work that can let a stock fade given the proper setup.
CRBP: I shorted this on the stuff move in the morning. It went a bit higher and I stopped out before I would have actually gotten stopped out which PnL wise is ok but process wise is bad since I gave up on it while it was still valid just because it didn't work right away. It ended up going to the prior highs and that was the top. I should have been more keenly aware of that and retried it. Again, I figured the same thing as #2 with AUPH - it's up here and there's no selling pressure. But that isn't a valid theory as these stocks almost always go back down at some point. Very few RENs take place. Another thing is just because it stuffs doesn't mean it's the top of course. But given the circumstances it was a good attempt and maybe I should have used the prior highs as risk. That would be giving it a lot of room though. Either way I thought about shorting it at multiple points later on when it had flushed from the lows and when it got under vwap. Both times would have worked.
SCYX: Nothing to add to this - shorted vwap pop and covered at a nice spot at r/g. Only reason I didn't do more size was because of ssr but it had good volume so it shouldn't have been an issue.
NUGT: I shorted it because it looked weak and it was under vwap and had a good pattern. I gave it to .80s over/under. I put a breakeven stop and I thought I heard news or something perhaps the oil numbers at that point so I just got out when my stop was triggered. It ended up working had I given it more room but so be it. I don't think I would have made any money on it though since I had a bid near the premkt flush lows and it never got to it and it quickly reversed. Not sure if there is a lesson here - I did prematurely stop out but I thought the news just announced might affect it and I didn't want a headache.
GNK: I am proud of the way I traded this. Basically I saw the stuffs and the level 2 games going on. I shorted near the highs and it looked like it was going to breakout a few times but I said no what ifs for this and put my bid near vwap which I figured if it flushed was the guaranteed money and from there I wasn't sure what would happen. I saw the level 2 games where it looks like it's about to breakout then the huge offers come in and that's it - it did it a few times but I knew what was going on. Later on I avoided it given the daily chart and the float and that shorts are still stuck. I did see a lot of volume come in later in the day around 8 and thought about putting a short on there but decided against it. It wasn't huge volume and given it had held trend so well and it was day 1 I wasn't going to fight it. Only if it had some lower highs and peaked the main 7.60 level. Eventually it got under vwap and I thought about shorting it at vwap but I figured it would just hover around vwap and that would be it. It did go lower but it's ok. I am glad I avoided it and it was a good process - there were a lot of things that could have kept this going.
NTNX: I originally wanted to short it early in the morning when it looked like it was peaking vwap and looked weak. It worked for a minute as it made new lows but then came right back and went higher. But I never traded that. Later on, I tried a short when it went red and looked to be peaking. But it was holding up and looked like it reclaimed a small level of support and the volume wasn't too great. I did prematurely exit for a very tiny loss but didn't want to get caught in a spike upward. This is sounding very what if-ish and that is true. My thesis was if it was still red and weak then it could roll over even more. It's tough to say what to do because I had my thesis but the price action was meh. Giving it enough room probably would have meant stopping out near the highs but it never looked like it was holding r/g until later on and even then it went back under again. Basically this was just chop and should be avoided with the low volume.
Other stocks: TWTR: Wanted to short due to pattern but didn't due to potential headline risk - worked out. CLVS - same thing didn't want to take the trade due to headline risk. NXPI - was a good idea with the 105 short - wish I did it.
Things to work on:
1. Headline risk in most cases like TWTR and CLVS aren't good excuses to not get into a stock. ENH was still in my mind but that is a completely different scenario.
2. Work on getting back into a trade at key levels like CRBP and AUPH.
3. Even if a stock is at highs that doesn't mean it can't go lower at least intraday for that day. So that isn't a good reason to avoid a stock either.
4. Don't trade when it's low volume and possible chop.
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