Today was a slightly profitable day. All green tickers again. While I could say I should have been up more - there were some trades I would have done that would have been losers and some that would have been winners. Some that come to mind are CUDA long when it was over vwap which would have been a loser, SRPT short when it was under vwap and had the same pattern as yesterday - goes to show big picture > anything else although the big picture could have supported continued fade, and HTGM short at the top which I almost did but pussied out on unfortunately. Win some, you lose some - in the end it won't matter. Process is better but psychology needs improvement with not caring about the money and not having fear.
FTNT: Shorted when it got to 30 and looked like it made a new high by penny. These usually have two pushes which this did and then drops a bit then does nothing the rest of the day. So I tried that but didn't give it enough room. I was ok with it making a new high by a few cents but it did that a couple of times so I got out. I should have waited for some topping action instead of just guessing and predicting. So I stopped out near the high unfortunately but then saw it come off and saw my mistake so I reshorted and that looked like it was working but it came back to stop me out for flat. I saw that it had possibly gotten everyone out so I reshorted and it worked and got under vwap but never reached my target so when it reclaimed I just got out. Overall I was essentially flat on it. Frustrating stock. Lesson: Don't predict but react, give things enough room.
NTNX: I tried shorting this as it came under vwap and looked like it was fishing for stops and then $33 was absorbing on the offer. It came back down but eventually triggered my breakeven stop. I was thinking of getting back in but it looked like it reclaimed and had low vol too so I avoided it. It ended up going higher before coming back down. Overall it was worth a shot. Should I have been more patient and given it the full out to vwap over/under? I guess that is good process but with such low vol I didn't want to take a chance.
NSPR: I saw this consolidating and it was definitely a good short as it was around vwap but I didn't do it because I thought it could go higher. It definitely stuffed a few times though so that was a sign. It had the volume today and everything to support that this was the top but I was being too cautious. With the way it was consolidating I thought it would push higher at least before coming back down. Oh well. I shorted a pop later in the day and covered for a small gain. Lesson: Stocks that consolidate with stuffing like AUPH did are good shorts.
HTGM: I saw the double top on this with volume in the morning and thought about going in but noticed how much of the float was trading. It stuffed on the breakout and made a new high by a penny. This followed by L2 games made me think it was definitely a short for a scalp at least. Unfortunately as I mentioned before I didn't do it mainly due to the float being traded so rapidly but that didn't matter in this case. I was too cautious but whatever. I saw it later on stuff in the .50s but didn't short it then unfortunately. I did short it later in the day on another stuff after the fed and that worked well for a small scalp. Lesson: Sometimes float traded doesn't matter and if you see everything line up then take the shot.
Things to remember:
1. Float rotation sometimes matters and sometimes not. It may not matter on day 1 so much either like DGLY and how it took a while to squeeze with the circumstances too.
2. Thesis/big picture > minute price action
3. Consolidations with stuffs are ok for shorts
4. React, don't predict
No comments:
Post a Comment