VHC: I traded this in premarket due to the stuffs and lower highs. I figured that it would be another SEED because with the news being iffy and looking at past history on the daily it is a good candidate to fade. I took it off in premarket when it was holding up and I didn't want to be in it at the open. At the open it did wash a bit but then it recollected and pushed to 5. Using the 3 min chart it was hard to see what was going on but I wouldn't have shorted it up there anyway either way. On the 2min it did stuff nicely under vwap and you could have shorted it there. With the 3min it did have a big wash and then the next pop was ok, obviously this is all in hindsight but it's hard to say exactly. On the 1min it did have a volume push which would have been good to short into but it looked exactly like ARRY did on day 1 so. Obviously overall thesis > price action and not everything is going to work out perfectly - there is no holy grail of candlesticks settings that only shows you the best. Later in the day I saw it perk above its consolidation area and thought it would be a good short but didn't pull the trigger unfortunately. Then towards the end of the day it had a nice run on volume that I shorted into. It worked for a bit but I saw a huge offer where I had shorted before and figured it would be jammed into there then it could go lower. My breakeven stop got triggered and I got out for flat at the offer and then I reshorted after there wasn't much followthrough after the offer was eaten. It didn't do much and I covered at the close. Not sure if there's a lesson here other than thesis > minute price action of course.
ARIA: This had failed followthrough so I shorted. It worked for a bit and I never added which in the end it wouldn't have mattered but I still would have liked to. Anyway I was being patient but it just made a higher high so I got out. It didn't do much the rest of the day. I thought about shorting it later in the day as it looked weak again but it never made new lows.
NTNX: The only trade on this was after I saw it double top and come off and then have a good pattern for a short + the offers were absorbing a lot. So I shorted in front of the offer but the bids wouldn't budge so I just scalped out for a small profit. When it had a higher low afterwards though I should have known to get long as it was just like ACIA on day 1. Later on it started grinding higher and I said I'll short it when it goes parabolic. Maybe I could have gone long before that. Obviously it may not work all the time but it worked here. Anyway it went parabolic and I was about to short it but there was no clear volume indicator and of course there was the what if it goes another dollar. I didn't want the headache although I did see where the top potentially was on the 1min where it had more volume to move it 30 cents or so than when it did to move $1. After the flush I thought about longing it for a scalp which would have worked but the what if it drops more came in and it's hard to risk off of anything. Later on it consolidated and the offers were absorbing and it might have stuffed a bit on the 1/2min but it wasn't enough to go off of. I would have been pissed had I shorted on that and it didn't work since the stuff like that doesn't mean much and I wasn't sure if it had washed everyone out and could continue higher or whatever. But the offers absorbing added a bit of credibility to it although it absorbed when I shorted it in the morning and it didn't mean anything in the longrun. The only last trade in it was at vwap for a long but I wanted it to go lower first then reclaim vwap but that never happened. Overall, some things worked and some didn't as far as my ideas. Hard to say overall but in different scenarios the same thing can mean everything or nothing so again: thesis > price action.
Things to work on:
1. Thesis > price action.
2. Think who is doing what and which side needs to have some panic in it for them. For instance, on NTNX it was overall a strong IPO but the chasers needed to be washed out and there weren't too many shorts. When it was consolidating after it made that big wash candle there was still room to go for them to be washed out. Once it got to vwap it was ok and the strong IPO stock could continue being strong. Same thing with NVFY today - the longs had no reason to panic and while it washed out the longs who came in before - the prior longs had no reason to sell thus it went higher. There were no prior bagholders on the longer term chart that would sell.
No comments:
Post a Comment