Today was a good day with decent profits that could have been more had I waited a few minutes to cover my NTNX short but no big deal. Honestly was not expecting that huge of a wash. I traded three things today: NUGT, NTNX, and CRBP.
My first trade was NUGT - I bought the dip after it had a nice push thinking nugt could bounce but then some news came out and it flushed. It wasn't so bad at least and I got out before it went much lower so overall it was ok. I saw it later in the day and it had reclaimed support and thought about going long but never did. No lessons here except it would have been nice to get long on the reclaim later in the day but I didn't want to bother with it.
NTNX: A few things to learn from here. I shorted after it went back under vwap. I saw it had the failed breakout near 41s and when it came under vwap I had a hunch it was weak. I didn't have much confidence in this but it was a hunch I wanted to act on, nonetheless. I saw what TTD did and figured this can to. Here are some lessons though: Don't look at the minute level 2 action. I put a stop at 39.70s that almost got filled before I cut it off because the .70s were holding a bit and I wanted to say screw it with the low volume. I canceled and just said fuck it I'll let it play out. The other thing was the what ifs came again but I held firm and told myself no more of that. The confidence gained by this trade helped with that regard for sure. My cover was early of course in hindsight but so be it. That's easy enough to fix. As far as adding, I didn't really want to add although it broke the uptrend line - at the time there wasn't much volume and didn't want an ssr spike to deal with. Later on it looked weak and stuffed so I thought about shorting it then but didn't. At that time I would have stopped out but then when it went red again I tried a few times getting filled but didn't and it faded another $2..
CRBP: I avoided shorting this for the most part because I figured it could go parabolic or something. There wasn't much volume in the 9.30s/40s when it started to breakout and that is where I thought it would have a failed breakout but it made new highs. Then it washed pretty hard. I still wasn't sure about it then because it could have just gotten some longs out and continued higher. But after it had a good pattern of lower highs I figured it could wash to under vwap. I shorted with the idea of adding at the higher end of the small consolidation if it got there but it never did and just flushed from where I shorted it. I got a good cover this time and figured it wouldn't just disintegrate. Overall nice trade here and nothing to really comment from.
Things to work on:
1. You have good ideas consistently. Time to act on them.
2. The level 2 sometimes helps you and sometimes doesn't. It almost screwed you this time by making you cover way too early but it helped last time you shorted NTNX when the bids were absorbing. Honestly, it is a toss up so stick to your original plan in most cases.
3. No what ifs - they are deadly.
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