Pages

Monday, September 26, 2016

Trading Recap 9/26/16

Today was a losing day unfortunately even though I had the right idea on 2/3 stocks I traded yet I was red on all of them. Going forward I will be using 3min charts exclusively. I have been doing some "backtesting" and I definitely see a noticable difference with the way I see things on the 1min vs. 3min charts. I see way too much with the 1min that makes me want to go in vs. the 3s that show me less but only the important things. I will be talking about in each of the stock reviews today.

ARRY: I shorted in the morning and considering where it is now the small loss I took is nothing compared to what could have happened had I stayed stubborn. I shorted after it looked like it had a big volume push and came off. It held vwap but that was ok I was in partial size. I added when it made a new high but had no immediate followthrough. But when it went higher after that I stopped out and that was it. This was all using the 1min chart. Had I used the 3min chart I would have seen just a nice consolidation. I'm not saying I would have gone long but I would have avoided the short as there wasn't any setup there. Later on I tried shorting the 6 test but stopped out for flat after I didn't like what it was doing. There were a lot of flags to go long on throughout the day. One thing to note is that when there is only one main stock on watch like this it can get crowded easily so that is something else to note. Lesson: When there is only one stock on watch for the most part it can get crowded especially after all the easy shorts lately. Remember these things go in cycles so after a lot of easy shorts there will be one runner. Also use 3min charts for less noise.


CLVS: I thought this had the chance to go lower after everyone forgot about it and the longs might just continue to sell. My target was $36. I wanted to see some failed follow through. After it flushed and made new lows I waited for the retest of what looked like support at around the .80s with risk to r/g. This looked good using the 1min but had I used the 3min I would have seen that nothing was there. There was vwap but I wouldn't have traded that setup. It ended up going higher and making a new high and then coming off. This was the top for the day. I'm not sure I would have shorted there but at least I wouldn't have shorted and lost on the first trade. But I should have thought that when it was at the 37.50s it could at least go back down to $37 like Friday so it was a good attempt then. Anyway, it came under vwap again and I shorted again figuring it got everyone out but I covered on the r/g push. Later on I tried one last time as it broke the uptrend and looked like a bearish flag. This would have been right but I covered for flat after being wrong the past 2 times and I thought I saw some level 2 things that didn't add up but I was wrong on that. Overall I had the right idea but my execution was shit. Lesson: I would say to give it more room but using 3min charts I wouldn't have seen what I did to make me short it in the first place.


GWPH: I avoided this in the morning since I didn't have a bias on it. I did see the parabolic in the morning for a short scalp that would have worked but meh. It could have easily had gone higher. The only trade I saw later in the day was when it was consolidating higher above vwap late in the day when SPY and LABU were going lower. I figured it could have an EOD run. I got long small on a dip and almost immediately sold it but told myself to not worry about it. It went down very small for this type of range and I was in small size. Soon it went up and was holding. I saw on the level 2 that the bids would drop and then come right back. So it was interesting and it definitely helped support the long idea. I didn't get long on any of those dips to add more unfortunately. After it broke out I added on the retest and it went towards $126. I was up a decent amount here and should have taken it off since it was premature at this point (3pm). It then came off a bit quickly near my average but I did hold on. I set a breakeven stop and it got triggered so I was out for flat at that point. It looked like a failed breakout but I had a feeling it could still go higher. I should have given it to the flush lows from just before. It would have been a minor loss that was well worth it for the reward of it breaking out. I retried again just above $125 and on the first dip lower I got out and took a loss because I got a case of the what ifs. It fucked around for a bit but broke out past $126 right before the bell. A few lessons: The dip buy was good and even the add was ok after it broke out. You should have realized it was a premature breakout and either taken it off and then readded on dips or if you wanted to be really patient then at least give it the proper room and stop. Don't just go for breakeven stops when it's overall still valid and give it enough room (pertains to second trade).


Things to work on:
1. Use the 3min chart.
2. Give things enough room.
3. No what if scenario.
4. Don't trade when confused.
5. Don't just go for breakeven on the trade when your trade is still valid.
6. Remember the stocks that work for shorting and those that run are cyclical. 

No comments:

Post a Comment