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Thursday, September 1, 2016

Trading Recap 9/1/16

Today was another green day. The process is definitely coming along.  Some improvements can be made of course but overall good progress - slow and steady.

CRM: My main fuckup today was this stock. I disregarded my new rules about giving things room and the 10% rule. But that won't happen again, it's cemented in my head. Anyway, I shorted the first push because of the resistance at 76 and the fact that it sped up there in premarket and opened near it. I added around my average when it rejected 76 a few times. It came down to vwap but held and it went back up. It didn't do exactly what I wanted with the add so I sized down. It then went through the highs and I stood tight but as it went a little higher, I disregarded the rules I put out as mentioned above. Instead of covering, I should have held tight and then added with 76.50s as my stop. This is a pattern I have been seeing often lately. Stocks like this and GII and DG have two pushes out of the gate and that is top. If a stock is like EXPR and just fades from the getgo under vwap, then add all pops. So I will keep that in mind going forward. What I might do is wait for the second push or just wait for it to get under vwap and short pops. Anyway, I saw as it was coming off from $76.50s that it might be good short then but never took it and then when it peaked vwap I didn't take it again. I got in later with a poorish entry and didn't have much confidence with it so I took it off for flat. If I held it long enough it would have worked. The nice spot was that vwap push and fail later on. The last trade was on the rejection of the resistance on volume. It made new lows but came right back and I've seen that before but I was busy with another stock and I had small size but I figured that was it and it was. Lesson for this stock: give the stock enough room and the 10% rule, two pushes or vwap fails.


SPU: I completely missed the morning move but I am ok with that since things didn't go according to my plan. I thought this was going to go another buck or so for it get everyone out but that didn't happen. It didn't even stuff or anything so unless there was level2 activity I didn't see since I was watching other stocks then I'm not sure. I did try shorting once but covered for flat because I thought it was a stupid entry and truth be told I thought the whole thing was too easy so at one point I was looking for dips but I disregarded that idea. It did stuff a couple of times into vwap which were good short entries but I didn't take them. One thing to note is it dropped to below premarket support but on the 3rd candle it retested and failed so that would have been a good entry for a short at that point. Something to keep in mind. Obviously this is an exception to the usual don't play things at the open.


GNW: I shorted this because it definitely look like it had nice failed follow through momentum. It is a thick stock so I went in with 100 shares right away. It flushed and made new lows compared to yesterday and hovered around there. I remember all the times something would make new lows briefly then that was it so I covered when it was pulling up. It did another 10 cents lower but then reversed. Overall a good trade and not much else I would change here.


DUST: I had this on watch for a move to $45 where I would be interested. Unfortunately, it went to $44 and that was it. I did see that it had trouble in the morning getting past that $43.70 so with the overall idea in mind of it having an overextended chart I should have gotten in there with it having room to add in the $45s if it got there. The main reason I didn't get in at this point was it looked a lot like yesterday's action in the morning where it failed in the morning then went below vwap and then went back higher. I did get in for a small stupid trade when I thought it could go lower because it looked good but then I realized the range was huge and I didn't want to risk a whole dollar so when it went up a bit I just got out as I didn't want a headache. There was a good entry though as it broke the bear flag. I would have gotten in there but I didn't see it in time I believe. Later in the day I thought it could bounce a bit but I didn't want to long an overextended stock for a bounce attempt. It did go a little higher but not by much. Lesson: Maybe get in if the chart warrants it but it was tough since I wanted it to go higher.


MOMO: I had this on watch due to the overextended daily chart. I saw it stuff once or twice but it did that yesterday and it went higher. Yesterday I wanted it to go g/r for an indicator that it would go lower but it never went g/r. Today however, it had the look so I was interested if it dropped and peaked vwap. It did just that so I got in and added in because it looked good. Was it a pop? No but I was pretty confident in this one so it was alright. When it went g/r I added in to full size. I got a nice wash but wanted to be patient for more as it was a big chart. I saw it washed then retested and made a low by a penny which signaled to me that I should cover since this might be it. I did want to be patient though but I should have covered half there if I was unsure. It did end up going back up a bit and thinking that was it I covered a bit higher from the low for half size. I then readded when it came back to r/g area. It stuffed through r/g and that was it. So it was good that I was patient and gave it room on the add for over/under. It came back down to the 70s and I covered half since that seemed to be a main spot for it. I decided to let the rest ride but when 70s broke and it had the look I added in with a tight stop. It ended up being a trap so I got out right away on all of them and that was a good move since it just screwed around higher later in the day. Positives: Took the trade at the right time and added appropriately. I was patient even though it may have worked against me. I let it test over/under and wasn't freaked out by covering. I noticed the trap towards the end and just got out. Negatives: Didn't cover half when I was unsure but I was being patient so it's all hindsight. One main thing is I can't be too stressed with 20 cents or so or whatever.


Others of note:

AQXP: I saw this at EOD. Originally I thought about longing dips for EOD run but after it dropped I thought what must have happened is everyone chased the breakouts where the volume came in because of what the stock has done thinking it will do that again and they got bagged. So it was a good short due to volume and that thesis.

TEVA: News came out about the patent being invalidated so the stock dropped initially. I was thinking buy the dip because it seems like the opposite of buy the rumor, sell the news - short the rumor, cover the news. With the news being out that was it so all the people who now shorted might get squeezed. I saw it hovering around and thought about it but decided against it. Next time I will go in though since now I know.


Things to remember:
1. Don't be a pussy.
2. Give things enough room and 10% of its range for certain stocks.
3. Don't get worked up over little things that can stress you out like not covering near the exact bottom etc.
4. On news like TEVA, buy the dip.
5. On stocks like AQXP where people are buying with volume and chasing for what it can do, short pops.
6. For SPU, it dropped and then popped to retest support and got slammed down so even though you didn't get in at the open that would have been a good entry. Hard to say in real time though since at the time you thought it could go higher.

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