SAEX: This was the main gainer for me. There is a lot to learn from this trade. Going into it I was definitely bearish because I remembered VLTC and how all the other bounces ended up on the second day. At first I thought that it would have to go higher first but in premarket it was already making lower highs so I was more bearish and figured it wouldn't have to run as much but I was still open to anything. Out of the gate it pushed up and then slammed down. I figured that would be it so when it got to vwap I shorted thinking it would top out over there. I gave it a little bit to see if it would go higher but it started coming off so I shorted near vwap partial size. It went higher though right after I got in but it was ok. I didn't add on the spike higher but my risk was to vwap over/under and I knew I had to let it do its thing. Later on I added when it looked to peak 9.90s. I got what I thought was a good entry but it spiked up again through vwap a bit. It was definitely pushing my limits but I thought this could be just another time it goes through vwap and then comes right back down. That is what happened and when it got near my add price I sized down in case it decided it wanted to go higher again before coming back down. That didn't happen though and it made new lows . I sat through bullshit successfully but didn't take advantage of the fact and got out half size in case. I reshorted again when it went lower and my plan was to cover at the support from Thursday but it didn't seem to want to go there so I increased my limit a few cents and covered one cent off the lows at that time which was good. Later on it consolidated and eventually went lower. I could have shorted it again I guess but no big deal. Lessons: Overall I stayed in and sat through the spike because I was confident in the setup and everything. I shorted what I thought were pops and good entries. Obviously in hindsight they weren't but they could have easily had been entries. It was kind of difficult to risk off of any definite level and it definitely wicked a lot higher than I thought. Biggest thing I guess is to give it room to work. Using the 2-3min chart may have helped but it's hard to say unless seeing it in real time.
CLVS: This stock has continually been a loser for me even though I have been right almost 100% of the time. That usually means that I am not giving things enough room. Going into the day I was looking for a potential blowoff top so even though in the morning I saw it spike up a dollar I thought it could go higher so I waited and didn't want to step in front of it. After a bit it spiked through vwap then came off. I was looking for it to stay under vwap as that would be a sign that it could continue to go lower. My risk was to vwap over/under. I was debating giving it to the prior spike high but figured if it popped through vwap again then it could go higher. At this point I wasn't sure if a top had been put in but I was trying since it was under vwap. It immediately got through vwap again so I covered for a loss there. It came right back though on the next candle and thought I screwed up by not giving it to the spike high but then it did go back in the 40s. I didn't think it was a double top or anything and thought it could go higher potentially. After Adam F came out with his article and it flushed lower I thought about shorting in the first oval area below under vwap again but I didn't want the same thing to happen to me so I figured I would short pops lower if it decided to go lower. Well, it did go lower. I was looking for pops back to vwap or something or at least 39s but it never got there and so when it looked like it was peaking r/g I shorted with risk to the prior highs. It worked and I wanted to add after it broke $38 and peaked so I did that and waited. After a bit it looked like it was reclaiming $38 and at this point I thought the short was crowded after the article so I downsized and then got out on higher lows. I thought it could go back to r/g and go to vwap again. Later on I drew an uptrend line and said it looked like a bear flag. I figured if it broke it then it would be a good short as it would definitely be a confirmation it would go lower after consolidating under r/g for a while. It got below the line but I wanted to wait for a pop to short. However, at this point all the shorts like me were out and it could just go lower. This stock likes to fuck shorts over first so that is why I waited for a pop but it never came and I should have just shorted right away on the breakdown. So I completely missed the trade even though I had the right idea. Later on I tried it a couple of times but lost very small on it due to getting scared out and the what if scenario. Lesson: It's hard in practice to "react vs. predict". Two different stocks: CLVS and SAEX and two different outcomes. I predicted SAEX would peak at certain levels and while they weren't the best entries it worked out in the end. I predicted on CLVS that it would peak at certain levels and in the long run it worked out but a lot happened in-between. I was down half my downside on SAEX unrealized but was confident. On CLVS I would have been through half my downside had I given it to highs and stuck with my original entry. It could have realistically gone higher though had the article not come out then. Also, I did try to react after it went above vwap then came back down and thought that was a good entry. Not really sure what to think honestly - had I waited for a react scenario on CLVS I guess I would have waited for it to breakdown and short pops like my original plan or the bear flag. The biggest thing too is thesis > minute price action. So even though it looked like it reclaimed it was still holding red but it could have easily gone higher. Not really sure other than having the conviction to stay in the trade when it hasn't been invalidated.
NVAX: I tried shorting this again due to the same reasons mentioned before. It made new highs but I got the feeling that was it so I shorted 2 cents off the high and risked very small. It worked out but I only wanted to add under vwap. It broke vwap then I added when it popped there and was patient. It never broke that 2.24 level so I got out. It was a good trade overall.
ACIU: I went long after it broke the downtrend lines and it had higher lows. I was using the 3minute chart though and when I switched to 1min I didn't see how thin it was. When it started going lower I kind of paniced out in case the floor just dropped. Kind of a what if scenario of course. It didn't do anything though.
Things to work on:
1. Give things enough room.
2. React vs predict.
3. Thesis > minute price action.
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