PII: I saw this stock had cut its earnings guidance by half for the full year. I was interested in any pops/patterns to short. I thought about getting in when it looked like it stuffed at 9:32 but wanted to wait and see how it developed since I knew it could have a second push. It did have a second push but then came off and had a lower high which is where it shorted. This was very good. After it got under vwap I figured it was ok so I added again. This was bad because I had a feeling it would just hover under vwap and then come back up again. It did do that so I covered the add on the spike up. Maybe I should have given it more room but ideally no adds at all until it had some lower highs under vwap and wasn't just hugging it. What was good was I kept the initial as per my plan. It did look like it was going to breakout over $76 but it never did and I held on. Later on though it consolidated above vwap and was looking like an abcd so I got out for flat on my average price so it was a small loss overall. I did see it stuff a little on the consolidation so when it started going a little lower I shorted again. I was very patient with it and despite wanting to add a few times I didn't because it wasn't for sure. What was good was I gave it room to vwap over/under and let it test a few times. Eventually it came to around $74 and thought we would get the washout but it just hovered there and a part of me wanted to cover there since it looked like WATT would do when it stopped going lower. But this is a different scenario/stock so I wanted to be patient anyway. I was pretty patient with it anyway and thought it got everyone out so it could actually go lower. Instead that was the bottom and it ripped up. I put a breakeven stop which got a hit and that was it. Positives: Gave things enough room and let things play out and only stopped out of the add Negatives: Added a little too quick
UVXY: I originally wanted to short this in the morning as it ramped and SPY wasn't tanking right away. This turned out to be a great trade and the HOD. Later on, I saw UVXY was holding up despite the SPY being at highs and going higher. I thought that there could be reversal in the market so I went long UVXY but just got in at a shit price and right at resistance. I bought the high and I was never up on the position. I sold it and it was a small overall loss but it was my biggest loser today that could have been avoided. It went much lower so that was a good stop. Later on I saw the same thing and tried again and got in on a good dip this time. It didn't work the way I wanted so I sold for flat and good thing I did because the minute after I sold, that huge flush happened and I would have definitely sold into that not expecting any bounce. The correct thing to do was to short all pops but oh well. Positives: Waited for a dip on the second attempt Negatives: First try was a FOMO entry Lesson: Just because UVXY has the premium accumulation doesn't mean SPY won't go higher so this isn't a valid reason for a trade
NUGT: I originally saw this in the morning for a potential long as it went under the premarket support and then came back up quickly, which I have seen work. It then looked like it got rejected pretty hard right after so I avoided it but it worked out nicely. Had it gapped down more or been 2-3 days of red days then I would have been more inclined to take it. Anyway, after the fed news hit and NUGT rocketed, I looked for a potential short and after it broke out past then highs from the move and then came right back down I shorted and I was just looking for a scalp to the bottom of the range. I got that quickly so I took my profit. That was a decent scalp. Later on though when it went red I thought if it went back red then it should go back to where it was before the news since that is what the market was looking like it was doing at the time as well. I shorted the pop to r/g which was good but it didn't work so I covered when it broke past r/g. This was a meh trade - I guess my edge was in the first trade I think. The last trade I took in it was just stupid. I shorted it as it got to the breakout highs too quickly, I thought to myself. It was a stupid trade and I was wrong right away and got out. I ended up even in NUGT. When I have trades like the first one I should have done more size since the risk was minimal and there was emotion to be taken advantage of. The second trade was meh and the third trade should have never been done.
Other stocks:
ACIA: The best trade was on the ABCD/flag breakout in the morning. I didn't want to buy the breakout due to SSR being on but it would have worked well.
Things to remember:
1. Take advantage of emotion and only emotion on certain plays - that is your edge
2. Don't add too quick
3. Give things enough room and only stop out of the add if initial's stop hasn't been triggered
4. No FOMO
5. Premium accumulation in UVXY is not a valid trade thesis
No comments:
Post a Comment