White arrows are entries followed by exits.
OCUL: I was more short biased out of the gate. I was looking for a pop and drop to short and then add when certain levels peaked. I cut my size down across the board and started in with only 25 shares. That is my 1/4 size and I was willing to go to 1/2 size when it looked good and stop there until I get really good confirmation of the trend going lower. At the open it popped a little bit, but looking back there wasn't much volume and it didn't stuff everybody out like these gap and fades usually do. It just went to the premarket resistance and sat back a bit. After it went below the premarket resistance I shorted 1/4 size. My plan was to risk on the premarket highs o/u. My plan for adding was to wait until it looked like it retested and failed at 5.80. When it looked to have done that and failed at vwap I added to 1/2 size and I risked vwap o/u on my add. A few minutes later though it pushed through vwap and I stopped out of everything at point. Should I have just stopped out of my add and kept my initial? Yeah, that was the plan even though it wouldn't have mattered in this scenario. After it pushed through 6 and sat back I thought it stuffed so I tried shorting again and for some reason I added even though there was no confirmation. I stopped out of the add since it wasn't going down right away but trickling higher. After it made new highs I stopped out of the initial. It went up a decent amount before consolidating later in the day. I did not expect it to run like this - my plan was to short it only due to what I understood about the stock. Later in the day though, it seemed to be hovering and reclaiming support. Looking back it wasn't the best of setups for EOD run but I tried it anyway. I got in there small long for EOD run at what looked like support. I never added to it since it was a loser right off the bat but I stuck to my plan and gave it some room since I was in small size. Overall: The initial morning short was ok but the add might have been too soon before confirmation. The shorting of what I thought was a stuff might have worked out but there would have been more opportunity anyway. At the best least if I got in there shouldn't have been any adding. The long attempts at the end weren't the best and I might have been making the chart to look better than it did for a run.
MRK: For MRK I was thinking of shorting it because it seemed to be overdone to the upside based on the news. I figured this could fade nicely. It tanked at the open and I didn't want to chase it so I stuck to my plan and waited for a nice pop to get in. That was the good part of my plan. I got the pop I wanted to a prior support area and went in short there. Unfortunately, right afterwards it went past my stop but I only had very small size on so it wasn't too much of a big deal. It kept going and it made a big move in a short amount of time right into vwap so I figured I would short here and risk to vwap o/u. I had no confidence in the trade though at this point. I thought it would go up and come back down quicker but it consolidated for a bit and so I got out for a very, very tiny profit right before the fade back down. I left it alone for most of the day until I saw it had reclaimed support and had higher lows. This looked like a very good ABCD/ EOD run setup and I figured that a lot of people were still short so this could squeeze into the close especially on a Friday. I got long on dips (I will admit I was scared to just buy the dip here but I forced myself to on small size..which is why it ended up working) and risked to 61.70s o/u. I planned on adding to 1/2 size if it reclaimed vwap. It did that so I added into it. If I got a nice push I would take half off since it was a little premature for a EOD run. It ended up going past the .50s and stuffing into there. It then sold off back under vwap where I took the add off and when it got to my initial entry price I just said fuck it, it's not going to work and having no confidence at that point I just got out thinking it would break down. That ended up being the bottom and it went higher than I thought it would in the first place. Lesson here: Stick to the plan no matter. Downsize if you have to but unless the trade is completely invalidated then stay in it for at least a partial position so you are still monitoring it and can add back in if needed.
SAEX: I was prepared for this stock. I looked at the charts of AQXP and VLTC when they had similar moves and what happened the day after. They both ran up and then fell the rest of the day. So I was prepared for a runup and then slam the rest of the day. It shot up as expected. When it broke to 75 and sat back though, I told myself this is exactly like yesterday when it went to 49 and no one cared and that was the top. So did I short it in the 70s and make bank? No, I was a bitch and didn't do it because I was afraid of it going higher, only to see it slam $13 in a minute. I then wanted to short vwap tests and fails which would have worked great but I again pussied out. So when did I finally get in? I got in when I shouldn't have done anything because it slightly reclaimed a small support level so instead of shorting I shouldn't have done anything but I guess I had a little FOMO and frustration at this point. I shorted and it bounced a bit and I got out near the top (of course). Then it flushed into a big support and I looked for a quick scalp bounce so I longed it only to see it slightly go a bit more down and then give the bounce I expected. That was my last trade on it. I kept wanting to short it when it looked good to breakdown but knew that fucked me in the past and could easily fuck me again here so I didn't but it wold have worked almost everytime. Once the SSR went on I decided to not touch it although there were a lot of times where I wanted to short for the breakdown but not doing it was a good choice.
Other stocks of note:
ADXS: I didn't know what to do with this stock so I avoided it altogether, which was good.
ETSY: I wanted to short it due to it looking overextended but the entry when I did see it wasn't good so I avoided it which was a good idea as that was the bottom for the day.
OPTT: I waited for the entire day to possible short only when it peaked at the important levels. It looked good in the morning near the open but then it popped quite a bit and from there just kept hanging on.
SHIP: This had a familiar pattern of failing at support and retesting that support as resistance and peaking. Similar to SAEX and VLTC and other runners.
Things to work on/keep in mind:
1. Stick to your plan!
2. Keep focusing on the best stocks - trade the best, fuck the rest!
3.No FOMO/chasing
4. Let the stock go to completion according to your plan. Either by your plan you stop out, add, or take a profit. These are the only scenarios that should happen and nothing else. No stopping out prematurely, only per your plan.
No comments:
Post a Comment