MCUR: Going into the open I knew that there would be a lot of chasers who buy this up thinking this will be the next STEM and thus it will have a nice fade through the day - nothing happens two times in a row like this. Once everyone knew about STEM they went for the next possible ticker and that was it. THAT IS EXACTLY WHAT HAPPENED. Instead I shorted (surprised I could since we couldn't short stocks under $3 until today) and covered for tiny loss when it looked to be a trap. It then flushed and I wanted vwap tests to short and while they got close vwap, I was looking for a stuff through vwap and then fail for confirmation. That never came but there was volume around vwap around a few occasions but I never did anything with it afterward. THIS SETUP IS WHERE YOU EXCEL BUT YOU FUCKED UP. I'm not even mad about missing out in the morning because it did look trappish (probably why it worked).
BOFI: This had an overextended daily chart and while I missed the real play at the open but after it failed at the .70s it came back and I thought about shorting it on any signs of weakness since a lot of these overextended names have been fading farther than I thought. What did concern me though was that huge volume flush that was the bottom. But again lately those haven't been useful. So I drew an uptrendline and when it broke it to the downside I got in with risk to .40s o/u. This was the type of thing that should have worked right away but I wanted to be true to my stop as my rules outlined although this was one of those instances where it should have just worked. This was avoidable though as the uptrendline drawn wasn't a good one and I should have just waited for it to be under vwap first due to that huge flush.
UGAZ: I was interested in a short for a big picture fade due to the daily chart. In hindsight, these are the names where you average in and you have to be ok with building a position and then seeing what happens. Anyway, I saw a big volume candle but it wasn't a stuff. I thought fuck it and just went in and said to myself "it'll go down from here". If it was a stuff it should have worked right away (it wasn't a stuff to begin with) so I let it go up towards .50s o/u and stopped out in the .60s because I wanted to be true to my stop even though I knew as it was getting away from me that this wasn't it. I then saw it later in the day after the $42 double top and lower highs but I didn't make anything of it because it a was a thinly traded ETF at this point. I should have just done smaller size if I was so worried about it. ANOTHER STOCK YOU WERE RIGHT ABOUT BUT TRADED POORLY.
SPU: I saw this ripping and knew it was a former runner and it was day 1. I saw a failed breakout and went short in the 8s, added prematurely, covered for flat, then reshorted, added prematurely, then covered all within 5 minutes. I don't even know where to begin. How could I not follow my rule of not adding prematurely and it was day 1 (although EGLE faded on its first day but that was with a huge stuff). So after that clusterfuck it did fade a bit but I drew a trendline and it was consolidating (not peaking) under vwap and it seemed trappish for sure. I threw a bid but canceled it because I thought I was stupid for thinking I'd catch a move in this. It came back off a little and I thought that was it then it ramped and broke through vwap and I said oh that's interesting. Then it ripped up. Again something I "called" but never traded. But that wasn't even the worst thing. Later in the day I kept watching it and I saw it attempt to breakdown, collect shorts, and come back a bit. I thought it trapped shorts so I went long and added on the way up and then got so greedy that I added full size right at the highs in front of a huge ask and I thought "oh that's going to take some time to get through" and "maybe I should sell" but instead I stayed greedy and then it flushed and because I added at the highs and fucked up my average and was full size I took a decent hit when it wasn't a big drop at all but my stupidity caused a micro event like this to fuck me. I thought I was done with that but I guess not.
TWLO: I'm not even sure what to think about this one. I saw a good pattern for a fade and when it broke the base I shorted. I ended up bottom ticking the short (to the penny) and knew it should work right away but it retested 54 and I thought ok and it came back down but then ramped from there and while not really giving it to my full 54 o/u stop, I had shorted the bottom and knew the play wasn't going to work. The reason I shorted it is because TWLO has had some great fades on patterns like this recently but that was when it was coming off its highs. Now, it established itself a bit and actually I was looking for a weak open to get long in the morning but the gap up changed that. I then saw later in the day that it was going to break lows and I tried to short it but it was HTB by that point so the order didn't go through. Overall a stupid trade. Yeah it could have worked like all the other times but meh. Could I at least have waited for the retest? Yeah I thought about that but if it was going to fade like the others I knew it wouldn't retest, it would just keep fading. But if I am unsure then DON'T TAKE THE TRADE. When it retested my entry I didn't want to take it off because I didn't want to be scared out when it could still flush.
CNAT: I saw bids absorb on this news play so I went long with size but when it couldn't get past the highs right away I ditched it for a tiny loss. It was weird as both sides were fighting one another and no one was winning for a while so I stayed away.
CXW: I shorted this after the bounce because I heard that some firm came and defended it but I thought that the bounce was weak and after the inevitable defense that it would go lower. I also it a tiny breakout from consolidation and reject so I shorted that. In the same minute I stopped out as it spiked higher. Lesson: Just have a fucking thesis and don't go in with a microscope to see if it went a penny above some resistance to short into. Yeah you thought the firm defended it and that was it but meh. If it worked I guess I would be saying it was a great trade so who knows.
Things to remember:
1. You suck.
2. Everything in that binder that you read before the market opens. Had you 1. not added prematurely 2. not gotten FOMO 3. only traded the best (MCUR and SPU) 3. given big picture room on UGAZ - your day would have been massively green instead of massively red.
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