GME: This was my first trade for the day. I was short biased due to earnings being poor. It wasn't the best setup but if it had a proper setup then my plan was to short lower highs. Since it was near the open, I wanted to give it room to work and then add after confirmation of trend. So I started in really small and my risk was to 30.50s o/u. It did spike to it but I wasn't worried at all due to small size. It looked like it stuffed a bit into it so I added after the stuff. It came back down but what I saw was a pattern of it holding that .80 level and it tried to snap it bug then came back and recollected. This was a similar pattern to ACIA when I covered so at this point I just covered it for flat. It did screw around in that area for a bit but then later there were good points to short it that I hadn't seen. I think the covering and being safe was ok because it did screw around for a bit and I don't like getting chopped up. Had I seen the pattern on this and wasn't focused on other stocks, I probably would have taken it. Positives: Started in small, didn't get spooked because of small size and letting things play out, added when I thought it was good, covered when I was unsure. The cover doesn't look as good since the trade eventually ended up working but I avoided the chop and it could have gone higher too.
DG: I was interested in this on pops for continued fading. In the morning I saw that it tried to breakout from the little flag it created and it popped through it but then immediately got slammed back so I thought on a retest of the prior resistance, it would be a good entry. I was going to do small size in case it needed room. I shorted in the low 76s in anticipation of that area becoming resistance. In real time it looked like that was it vs. what the candles look like now so I thought that was it but then it caught itself and came back and made new highs. I didn't panic out and it made new highs but then came right back down so I added here with the thought that was it. Unfortunately, it did go higher so I stopped out on my total position. Looking at the chart, 77 was a major level. However, even if I had risked off of that I might have covered near the top anyway since that is where it looked to be holding. Later in the day, I saw it have lower highs and it looked like the backside, I never reshorted it unfortunately even though it did look good. I need to do a better job of getting in in these scenarios. Positives: I waited for what I thought was a pattern and in real time it looked good but I gave it space to work too and wasn't afraid to add higher when I thought it had a false breakout. While I wouldn't have wanted to risk all the way to 77 since the r:r would be out of whack for me, I should have went in on the backside of the move when it looked good.
MOMO: I had this on long watch for any higher lows. In the morning I let it do its thing and flush everybody out. I didn't want to buy any washouts but I wanted it to prove itself first. I saw it reclaim vwap and decided to get in there. When it went green and made nHOD I thought I wouldn't get a dip in this to add so I added again. It worked out and I got the initial runup. I know this stock can be fickle so I took the gains. However, it re setup again and looked good for another push so I longed it again small and then added when it looked poised to breakout. It went up a few cents and then consolidated for a minute or two and when it broke from there I doubled in and when it went towards $22 and couldn't get past it I sold at 21.90. Overall great trade and these are the types that just go and won't offer you a dip chance to add. I thought about relonging it when I saw an abcd form but decided against it. It could have worked but I thought that was it and I know that it can be a fickle stock as mentioned. Positives: I let the patterns form in the morning and didn't get involved too early and avoided dealing with that washout. I got in for the move and added higher because I thought it looekd good and that it would just go straight up without any dips. After I sold I relonged it with the same amount of shares and while it was sort of a chase, it did look good for the squeeze potential. Again I added higher because it just went straight up and sold when the trend looked to change. Perhaps I didn't get in again with the ABCD due to fear but it's ok.
REN: Before I write about this trade, looking back at the chart I should have charted it better with the major area of prior support from around 16.50 to 17. So if I am shorting it I have to be ok with 17 o/u since my thesis for the trade was that it broke down finally and any pops to that prior level was ok. For some reason I put the resistance line at 16.80 only which makes a huge difference for the way I trade. Anyway, I originally thought that it went through the resistance and failed so I shorted the next pop but was eventually taken out as it went higher (right to the higher resistance area at 17ish which is where I would have anticipated it going since it likes to fuck shorts). Positives: Waited for pop to short Negatives: Didn't chart it properly otherwise I would have shorted after lower high to 17 and it wold have been a winner. Also based on where I covered it was stupid because I should have risked to new highs or 17 o/u. I got scared because of what it can do quickly but overall it was a bad trade like some of my prior ones this week where I get out near the top due to being fear and not giving it enough room.
YRD: Maybe a stupid trade but given the beatdown chart and the fact that it reclaimed the support from yesterday and was consolidating and looked like an ABCD I thought it was good for continued move higher. I bought when volume started to come in and it started to push but that looked like a huge stuff so I got out right away for a very tiny loss since I had small size. I left it alone afterwards, it flushed, came back, and then went a little higher but then did nothing. I think it was better to be safe than sorry in this case because it looked like it stuffed pretty hard in realtime. If it setup again I could always get back in.
UGAZ: What a missed opportunity. I was looking at it for a reversal back down but left it alone for most of the day. I then saw it stuff pretty big and thought about shorting there since the daily was getting extended and the fact that it stuffed like that was a good indicator it could have a late day fade. I didn't get in around that area unfortunately but I saw it retest, try to breakout from the 42 area and fail, so I got in then. It dropped but then looked like it quickly reclaimed that 50s o/u area so I got out for flat when I could. I ended up topticking that candle and it was all down from there and there were spots to add as well for the EOD fade that I completely missed. I did think about getting in again at certain spots again but decided against it because I would have shorted support and looking at the NG futures, that initial drop was on huge volume so I thought that might have been it for the fade but it wasn't. As mentioned in the LABU post, sometimes huge volume flushes are the end and sometimes they aren't but the r:r at this point wasn't worth it. Positives: I waited for it to push to 42 and fail to get in. Negatives: Fear came in and I got out for flat on a position that would have been a great profit.
SPY: This was the stupid trade I had referenced in the intro. Looking back again though, it did seem like a stupid trade and FOMO definitely came into play where I didn't want to miss out on another fade in the market. While there was pattern to it I liked, it wasn't really that good of a setup. I ended up bottom ticking the short for what ended up being a higher low instead of waiting for a retest to the resistance for an entry. It went past resistance and since that was my over/under area I stopped out.
STJ: This had news and while I usually don't play these this had some pretty clear price action that I took advantage of although I gave it back with my last trade on it which was the only one I ended up adding into. I ended up $1 on the name. Nothing to post here since it was just price action on the L2 with bids absorbing and not being able to get through certain levels etc.
Things to work on:
1. Continue giving things room to work and then adding on confirmation or better price points.
2. Keep things on watch throughout the day as they can setup better for the real move (GME/DG)
3. No FOMO
4. Chart lines better
5. If you are going to take a trade, give it the full out unless something materially changes. YRD for example it stuffed pretty hard so I got out. But UGAZ is a thinly traded ETF so it will have these random moves like LABU that you need to be patient with.
6. Don't trade PnL when you are up just because you want to be up on the day and not take a loser. That is mainly why you didn't want to take a potential loss when it came back. While it looked like it just flushed and reclaimed, on ETFs like this you have to be more patient.
No comments:
Post a Comment