White arrows are entries followed by exits.
PRGO: The thesis behind the trade for me was that there was a buyout rumor and the stock went up quite a bit on that news but it never materialized. Therefore, with the gap down and apparently poor earnings, there would be bagholders who were holding out for the buyout and they would be sellers today. I saw what I thought was a stuff after it shot up a few points so I got in with risk to HOD. It hovered and then shot up and I got out mid-candle and saved myself a couple of points. I then reshorted when I thought the main support had cracked and peaked but it just reclaimed and went higher. Judging by my entries on each candle, I was still scared and not just getting near the top of each candle. I was shorting the bottom of each candle, again looking for confirmation. One of the things I learned and I knew this already but I guess never fully implemented it until now was that you need to have a bias/thesis and get the best possible price for that thesis. So if you are short biased and think it will go lower, then you want higher prices initially. You also need to give things room and the way I want to trade (when not scalping) is to average into the position and again, give it room. So what I could have done here for a plan was: I think it will go down based on the reasons described above. I either want to wait for lower highs or get into a position with small size then scale. The last part might sound familiar to what I wrote before but here I am averaging in first. For example, when I saw the stock possible stuff at 84-85 I could have shorted but with an overall risk on 86-87. So I can start in small and if it goes to 86-87 then add there and that's it. So have small enough size to be able to withstand a push if needed but then average in there and risk to the highs. Then you can add in and tighten risk from there.
VRX: I was long biased on dips for a continuation of the prior day. I thought that this would squeeze any potential shorts out who didn't cover and also potentially bring in new longs based on the chart having formed a nice break and broken out of it. Looked to be a potential reversal on the daily. While it didn't go r/g, had I traded it properly I would have made money anyway. My plan was to buy on dips. However, I realize I need a more concrete plan. What I should have said was I may buy a washout and give it room to work then add on higher lows or just wait for a familiar pattern/higher lows and start from there. Instead, after I tried getting in and failed before it spiked at the open, I tried randomly buying a pullback to vwap/some support and it just sliced through it and made new lows and stopped me out. Thankfully I didn't have much size but perhaps on something like this I need to wait for new lows or buy that washout after morning sellers are exhausted. After I took the loss, I kept monitoring it and saw a very nice pattern of consolidation near the lows but could only go in with small size due to already being down close to my downside due to the first VRX trade and PRGO. I bought near the low 27s and sold it when it made that huge push to 28 in a small amount of time with the idea of rebuying on dips. I then proceeded to buy the dip around 27.50 because it seemed like it was holding, but it flushed through it and I stopped out near the bottom. I didn't have much of a plan for this trade if it went lower and perhaps I could have thought big picture and added instead since it went to the now major support and then risk o/u on that support. It would have worked in this instance and it is something I will have to play with going forward.
ADXS: I was hoping for a breakout style play weak open r/g for continuation. I thought a lot of people would be shorting it and I know this has a tendency to hold up from when it was last in play. It held higher lows so I bought a dip off vwap. It looked good for a bit and my plan was to add after 16 held. Unfortunately, it broke down and I stopped out. This trade overall was alright even though it didn't work out.
FSLR: This was a mix of an actual play and an emotional play. I saw an abcd pattern and with the SSR on I thought it would be a good long. I didn't really know much else about the situation except the abcd pattern being present. I knew I didn't want to buy the breakout of the abcd since ssr was on so I waited until it held the breakout area for a bit then got in. Then I added prematurely and was greedy. I ended up selling it at a slight loss.
Things to work on:
1. Essentially rework plan strategy as discussed with PRGO and VRX.
No comments:
Post a Comment