Very slightly up today. Could have been more, could have been a lot worse. I know a lot of people got wrecked today so I stayed safe at least. Overall decent trading although there could be improvements. Notably I have to focus on when to get long for bounces on some of these names if they show some bounce at the open and are holding. One thing I have to remember is to use the over/under levels from premarket to help guide decision making.
CVS: I saw the bad earnings and guidance so was more short biased but it wasn't horrible so it could have bounced. It's tough to have picked a spot besides the breakout but it didn't really provide a tight area to risk off of. I was more interested in a short though once it went straight up towards $73 where there was a decent seller. It ended up working well but I had a cover at vwap and it never hit it. I was confident that it would at least get down to it but it never did and I got out for breakeven. I'm not sure if there is something to learn from this. There have been plenty of times that I covered way too early as well so sometimes it works out and sometimes it doesn't. What I could have done is to keep it on instead of putting a breakeven stop and then covering at low 72s which would have been much better. My desire to not lose overrided the belief that this was still a good trade. I thought to myself "I'm not going to lose on this trade after I was up". The other thing to note is the fake breakout over $73 that washed people out - so unless there is a lot of momentum don't buy breakouts like that. On the other hand the other thing to note is despite the stuff, it recollected, had a higher low, and kept going up. So a stuff like that isn't always it as I have mentioned before.
HTZ: This had the exact same very good pattern at the open where it just fades all premarket and then peaks vwap at the open and just fades. I knew this was forming the pattern but it looked like it had bottomed in premkt with big volume so I avoided taking it. The pattern still worked so I will keep that in mind going forward. Always take the pattern. Afterwards, I saw it forming a nice pattern for a long so I got in and it worked great. Unfortunately, I put a stop under vwap when it got above it (my original plan was to sell it at vwap anyway so when it got above it I just put a stop below it to see what would happen). It obviously ended up going much higher. The only other setup was the flag later in the day that it broke out from. It was a good thing that I didn't short it and there was no real short setup as it was just grinding higher. Also, the biggest volume here wasn't the top. This is a rare scenario of just pure institutional buying so not worth shorting. Buying any quick rug pulls can be profitable though. As for the stop on my trade this was a unique scenario where an institution was just buying. In other cases what I did would have been ok I think. Obviously I could have maybe lowed the stop a few cents to the support area where it went to exactly. I'll keep that in mind although again this was a unique situation.
TSLA: Bottom line on this is I tried to predict and pick a top instead of waiting for it to tell me it wanted to fade. Had I waited for that signal, I wouldn't have top ticked my cover and I would have captured the exact move I thought would happen the entire time.
Other stocks:
VRX: The only thing to note is the head and shoulders like pattern that I see didn't work here. It did go higher before coming back down and eventually breaking support. Something to keep in mind.
IONS: Only thing to note was that I was thinking of buying a breakout above a consolidation level on the 1min in the morning but knew there was a seller near so didn't take it. Again it was on the 1min so I didn't want to bother with it and sure enough it met a seller there and that was the top. I didn't know what to think of it though since the seller could have exhausted so I wasn't too sure about a short. I was thinking about shorting it lows but remembered I have to look at bigger timeframes to establish the minute patterns vs. what could be lows/highs. Also, these tend to not do much so shorting at vwap/stuffs and buying at lows work well on these phase # gap ups.
MOMO: I missed the nice consolidation and flush using the 2min charts but it's give and take with this. The other thing to note is the fake low, squeeze out chaser shorts, then continue lower. Again, sometimes these fake lows are it and sometimes not.
Things to work on:
1. Use over/under levels from premarket for forming long/short bias.
2. Don't pick tops. Wait for the backside.
3. Phase # gap ups tend to consolidate.
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