Friday was a small losing day for me that cold have been a lot more (sound familiar?). But I learned a lot about time of day, when to take certain trades, etc. Namely taking breakouts on the good setups in the morning on these earnings winners. There is a setup/pattern that has worked when I noticed them working in both cases. They offer high r/r so it's not bad and it seems to work often.
DRYS: Even though this trade was a loser, I definitely don't regret taking it. I saw DRYS when it first opened up flush lower and I figured that it would be a trap like most and then rip to the breakout level and fail there like BSPM and RGSE did and some other stocks as well. Before I go further I guess I could have gone long if I thought it would be a trap if it shows some sign of reclaiming a level. It reclaimed the $11 level before ripping. That is a very minute thing to watch and pay attention to (obviously the minute things like that don't always work) but it provides some sort of entry and risk to I guess. It triggered the SSR beautifully and then ripped - a perfect trap. So when I shorted it, it looked very good at that level and it went there parabolic. I got in at a good price and was actually in the money $1 almost but it recollected itself. I wasn't going to just take $1 from this as I knew if that was it, it would have faded a lot more so that was part of the plan. I wanted to add into it on confirmation. It eventually broke out past the level and I covered which was good. It wasn't doing what I thought. I wouldn't have gone long here since I didn't know what to expect but it was a good thing I covered. On the way up it didn't provide much opportunity for me. I guess once it went above the prior day's high a buy after the unhalt could have been ok but with the amount of times I have seen a halt be the top, it wasn't worth it. The only noteworthy trades that I saw but didn't take was when it broke out of a small range at the highs. I had a feeling this was it and people would chase the breakout or it would stop people out. It just had that look and I had that intuition. That intuition was completely right. When it confirmed by getting below the breakout spot again I tried putting up offers but didn't get filled unfortunately. The only other trade in it was the $17 stuff that I had a good feeling about as well. Did not take that at all unfortunately. My gut instinct was completely right on this one. I think I was just feeling that oh this stuff might not be it and some stuffs don't work - completely wrong line of thinking and unhelpful as mentioned in a prior post.
LABU: I saw it peak r/g and then come under vwap. It was a stupid trade that I really didn't have any plan for. I just entered when it got under vwap and came under the prior resistance a bit. On the one hand I thought it could work due to the pattern but also because the market could pullback along with the biotechs. I thought there was some irrationality within the past week so that provided the thesis for the trade. The thing is I just went in and didn't look at how much I was risking exactly and right after I got in I thought oh this could just be another dip..fuck. That is a very bad line of thinking. Now it ended up working for a little and I stopped myself out for a small profit because I knew it was a stupid trade and I wasn't going to take any chances. Definitely not my finest moment although I came out with a tiny profit. Part of it was just gut instinct I think but the other part was wanting to make back the DRYS loss which is stupid.
VRX: Just a scalp that I went flat on because of the breakeven stop. I didn't want to lose on this trade (which means I shouldn't have been in it in the first place). I just thought I could get a nice scalp out of it but I didn't know why it was up and didn't have a lot of confidence in it. The trade ended up working a bit but didn't reach my target and eventually it went higher. I should probably avoid trades like this going forward.
NVDA: This one was a definite miss and fuckup but I learned a lot. I completely missed the morning move on this. I thought about putting a bid at support for the top to see if we got a quick wash and rebound. That is exactly what happened but I never did it because "I didn't know if it would flush more". Completely useless line of thinking again. Just get in there - if it doesn't work, it doesn't work. You take a hit but nothing crazy. Had I done that I could have given it some room to the whole number below. Had I done that though then when I saw a nice level using the 2min chart that worked similar to SHAK yesterday then I could have pressed more with a little unrealized gain and get a decent win. It consolidated again and broke out which would have been a decent try again. I would have been more protection on this breakout and given it a tighter risk but that would have worked. Later on, the stupid trade I took was drawing a flag and trendline on it and buying the top of it. I stopped out at the bottom. Trying to buy breakouts at that time of the day is not good. Had I seen the flag (and I think these have to develop for a longer period of time) then you have to buy at support then maybe add on the flag break when it has consolidated long enough.
Other stocks:
NUGT: Didn't short the bear flag which looked nice and on the 5min timeframe as well.
PTCT: I am glad I avoided this in the morning. My plan was to short pops when 10.50s confirmed as peak but it just hovered around there. It then went higher probably from shorts who were stuck and covered. It made a fake high so that was a good short I guess. But I really wasn't sure about it at the time. When it ended up consolidating at the lows below the support that was a good opportunity. It definitely was "the pattern" that works pretty much all the time. The thing with this though was it must have been crowded/manipulated because it reclaimed from there and went higher. The only other trade was the stop gunning at the end of the day for a scalp but I didn't want to bother with it being so late in the day.
Things to work on:
1. Buying breakouts with key levels at the open and buying at premkt support levels on smaller size to test things out.
2. No unhelpful thinking at all like "it might or might not work". Also trust your gut/intuition.
3. Don't buy breakouts from flags later in the day. Wait for more confirmation instead of a little perk above the trendline. You have seen that fakeout so many times before - going in anyway comes from FOMO. Also, buy at support if it holds up. Then when it breaks out for real and clearly you can add with some some house's money and push it.
4. Make sure to wait for peaking/holding action like on PTCT.
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