There was a lot of opportunity today that I unfortunately missed out on, although I did have size in one name at one point and was trying to be patient but my thesis about the overall trend proved wrong so I got out for flat. I was up for the day but nowhere near what I was up unrealized. I really had the conviction to stay in full size for what I thought would be a decent move in my direction but maybe for now I should at least take some off at certain spots just to pay myself as mentioned before. It is better to have some profit than none at all I guess. Other than that, there were times where I was afraid to pull the trigger once in the morning which would have been a huge gain but I guess I snapped out of that later on.
UWTI: I originally thought that we would get an all day fade in oil because a lot of the move seemed priced in and I thought there would be people chasing the move. In addition OPEC doesn't have to follow any agreements made and history has shown this so overall I thought it would be a sell the news scenario. While there hasn't been an OPEC deal in many years, I thought the markets would discount the face value of the meeting much more. I was initially hesitant right at the open to do anything because I wanted to see more clues. I saw it was under the premarket support and peaking which was ok. What got me in was the fake high at the time above vwap and then it starting to come off. I knew the OPEC meeting was at 10am so I thought at that time things would start fading. I wanted to be in before then in case we got a big flush. I put my stop at breakeven in case there was a spike up. Before the meeting though, my stop got triggered and I was out but it started to run into 10AM anyway and never really looked back. Overall, my bias was wrong for sure but I wasn't so stubborn to stick with it. I was open to anything happening but I gave it a shot. While my breakeven stop might have been due to a fear of losing money, I just put it in case there was a spike up in the hopes of getting filled early. No lesson here I think. You had a thesis and you gave it a shot.
OAS: This was the stock that I was up a decent amount on but ended up going flat on it. Firstly, I missed the big spike right at the open for an easy scalp. I thought about shorting it when it was under vwap but didn't think that would he a good entry and rather have waited for a better idea of what was going on or at least a better price. When OAS was making a nHOD past the stuff at the open, it didn't seem to have much followthrough so I tried shorting some size and giving it a few cents thinking it made its fake breakout and could then go lower. But I was stupid and gave it a few cents only instead of giving it a bit more because I was essentially predicting this would be a fake breakout while it was happening, so I didn't know how high it could go. So I ended up stopping out 2 cents from the high at that time. Then I saw it starting to come off and I saw a random big bid so I figured that would be my trigger to get back in with risk to HOD. I had less size this time of course but I got in. I thought we could get an all day fade so I was looking to short pops along the way for a bigger picture idea. Another thing to note is that the stock offered a perfect setup of when it actually faded instead of anticipating what was going to happen like I did. While it was hovering around my price I thought about taking it off but I let it go to see what would happen. I didn't want to get scared out for no reason. Don't be afraid of losses and the minute action at the beginning of the trade doesn't matter. Anyway, it started to fade off and it got under vwap. I decided to add on a pop to vwap. When I added I was a little nervous because I didn't want to ruin the profit I had but I knew I was confident in it at the time and I had to size in when I could. It was a decent entry and it came off from there so I thought that was it. But it just went to the same low as before and started rebounding and hit my breakeven stop and never looked back. I knew that if it was going to fade in the manner I thought, it shouldn't get back to my price. So while I had ok entries my thesis didn't pan out. Later on I saw OAS flagging and thought about buying when it broke above the trendline but that never worked for me since it would get rejected right away and it was a bad entry unless it just kept going up. That is what this did though and while it would have been a nice profit, it's tough to know that it would just keep going like it did and not dip first or something. Lessons: Don't predict, react. It's tough to say whether to take profits or not at quicker intervals on something like this but like I said in the intro, some profit is better than nothing I suppose. Don't be afraid of losses.
CRC: Big miss in the morning. My mistake was not seeing the short % float in the morning on all these oil names and realizing this was one of the more heavily shorted. So this was all a squeeze in the morning. Had I known maybe I wouldn't have to tried to short it but either way.. I thought it was up way too much and then it opened and it ripped. In the 16.40s I thought about shorting it since it seemed so overdone. I was completely right but was afraid it could go higher and was unsure. This was definitely a mistake and a higher probability trade than the other stocks. This faded very nicely and offered opportunity to add along the way. So the mistake of fearing losses and the what if is definitely a big issue that must be worked on more so. I thought about shorting it at vwap or when it got to 15.40 but it never got there right away. It did offer a nice pattern where I did eventually short. Here, I did take half off at the low in case that was it and it was a good thing I did because that was it and I stopped out on the rest. I didn't touch it the rest of the day as I couldn't get a good read on it although it seems like shorts used this as an opportunity to cover because it closed at the highs. I thought this could give up its gap but that was wrong of course. Lessons: Look at short % and same as above, no fear of losses. No hesitation.
SPLK: This was my main winner. I completely missed the morning move but then saw it at vwap and it formed a nice base. I got short some extra size on the base break in case it just faded off. I saw the earnings/guidance were really meh. On the daily chart as well it was gapping into resistance. Earnings stocks with meh guidance and earnings that have these gap ups usually get faded because there are sellers, especially once it gets to an area of nice resistance. So I got stopped out on half my shares because it went back above 60 but then came right back down. It was worth a shot. Maybe I should have given it a few more cents - I'll have to experiment with doing that. I ended up adding again once it broke another base to the downside. Anyway, I took some off when it went to the premarket low and then put a breakeven stop on the rest. It made a bit of a fake low then came back and consolidated and then perked back up above a level where I put my stop so I got out on the rest of my shares. I saw it went back to $60 for a potential reshort but I didn't bother although I thought it could retest the lows from the morning. It did give some opportunities to short later on but I didn't take it but it really outperformed my idea of what it could do because it gave up its entire gap. Lesson: Experiment with the stops over/under a level. Gap up into resistance on non blow out #s are shorts unless they consolidate at higher levels. The reshort later on was worth a shot I guess but whatever.
Things to work on:
1. NO fear / hesitation
2. Take profits in certain scenarios on at least some of your position.
3. Don't predict, react.
4. Earnings gap ups into resistance on non-blow out #s are shorts most of the time.
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