Friday was a pretty poor trading day. I did a lot of poor trades but the good takeaway from this is that I have learned a lot from this trading session and it wasn't a killer down day. Just a lot of small stupid trades that kept adding up. It really should have been a positive day or at the very least a flat day. I did miss a potential monster trade because I didn't have it on the forefront and I will discuss that later on.
JBL: This was the stock that I was most interested indue to the fact that it was gapping up near resistance on the daily chart and it was up on pretty lackluster earnings guidance. At the open I was looking for either the premarket support to fail or a fail at the premarket resistance. I saw it get to 24.15 and it was absorbing very heavily on the offer there. Enough so to make it seem very credible. It was also at the premarket resistance and everything else it had going for it to fade so it seemed like a very good trade idea. I decided to go in with more size than usual because it looked very good and my stop was if it broke that .15 level. It came back down to vwap and I was in the money by around 40 cents or so. I could have taken it off here but I have 0 regrets of doing so. I was instead looking to add possibly if it made a new low and peaked that .70 level. Instead it held and then it just broke out and went higher. Small loss and not a big deal. I didn't go long on it on dips or anything because I was still skeptical that this move was worth it but the trend was bullish until otherwise so I stayed away. Eventually it came back under $25 and couldn't get back above it. I decided to short around 24.90 with the idea that it could get to vwap at least as the move was definitely overdone. It worked for a little but it looked like it could have reclaimed the support so I just put a breakeven stop. It got triggered and I got out but that $25 never broke back above. It was one of those patterns I have seen where it looks like it reclaimed/inverted H&S but it just holds the resistance and then fades. After all was said and done it definitely looked like a short pattern. I am not really disappointed about getting out for flat. I still think it was good process. The only thing to do in this case is to keep an eye on it and see if it still doesn't breakout and if so and it looks like it is about to crack then go in. Overall the trading in this stock was the only good thing for the day that I did. Even though it was a loser I didn't mind losing on this at all given how good the setup was. One other thing to remember is to look at longer term weekly charts as this had clear resistance in the $25 area which helped with the idea and made it work so well for an afternoon fade.
OPHT: Horrible trading in this. I saw the news and when it opened it started spiking higher. I figured this was bullshit and just some freak thing so I shorted without a real reason other than it spiked on this bad news. It then went higher and stopped me out for the loss I deserved. I tried it again after it made a fake high by a penny and consolidated at the high but was way way too tight with the stop because I topticked the HOD and I would have had a nice fade then. But even this entry was poor. I just kept trying to pick the top again and didn't let it top out a bit at least. There was a potential entry after it had that fake high and then kind of retested 5.22 a couple of times. That was a good pattern. It would have just been a scalp I think to vwap or just underneath it which would have worked fine. I say scalp only because it seemed odd that it would just go higher like that. At the very least I would have taken 3/4 off I think and maybe let the rest ride for a breakeven stop which would have gotten hit. Lesson: Don't pick tops and don't get the FOMO. Wait for the setup.
TRVG: A couple of random trades that amounted to being down $2 in the name. It started going higher after the open but I didn't see any specific pattern really that I liked. It was absorbing a few times at different levels but I didn't buying it because it just didn't seem that strong with the IPO pricing being under the range. The trades I took in it were actually shorts because like I said it seemed weak and that important $12 level was peaking. I shorted both times at stupid spots for a breakdown when I should have done what I wanted to do and short at vwap or at $12 which would have worked. I shorted it at 11.50 for a breakdown trade thinking it would flush under it but it was stupid to do that because $11.50 was holding very well and it did break but I was expecting a violent flush for 20-30 cents but it just trickled down and when it got back to an offer of $11.50 I just decided to get out as it wasn't doing what I thought and it seemed trappish which was the right call. It ended up holding $11.50 again for a while which would have been a good spot to go long for a scalp which is what happened. Overall it was poor trading but had I done the proper thing it would have paid decently.
LLY: At the open I didn't really know what to think so I didn't trade it then. It ended up popping and then fading off. I didn't mind missing that as I didn't really know what to do with it. Then some news came out that was supposed to be good but it started to sell off. I didn't understand why so I should have avoided it but I just decided to short when it broke $72 for the reason that if it's not going up then it has to be going down and I wanted to make back some losses from before. This was only to be a scalp trade as there was support that I knew of from past charts. I decided after I got into it that it was a stupid trade and I didn't know what was going on so I just took it off for flat essentially. What ended up happening was pretty sad given I wanted to go long and knew where there was good support. It went right to the support line I drew and that was the LOD. I'm not sure if I would have bought it there but it did work. The higher probability trade was when it reclaimed $72 and dipped back to that support level. That was a good dip buy area and from there it went higher and even went past vwap. I thought about getting in when it broke past some little consolidation which would have worked great as that was the beginning of the uptrend but I guess I didn't want to buy a breakout like that at that time of the day. It seems for LLY little things like that work although maybe the catalyst was strong enough to support it. Either way the lesson here is to avoid things you don't know and to be open to anything and all possibilities.
HON: Just a stupid stupid trade that I wanted to scalp to again make back some losses. It was stupid because I shorted a breakdown at the wrong time of the day, made the chart fit into a pattern that wasn't there, and support was also in that area so it wasn't worth it. Overall stupid trade and should not be done at all.
Other mentions:
AGIO: I also had this on top watch due to the news and the range this has. The only trades I saw were when it went to vwap. Now it was a tough vwap short but it should have been more characterized as a resistance that happened to be at vwap short. The other thing to mention is that there was news a few days ago and then it was bought up and then it gapped down so people will want to sell so that is something to look out for in the future.
ADBE and ORCL: Definitely a lesson here to keep things like this on watch because even though the gap wasn't that much they both offered picture perfect shorts and especially with ADBE I could have really sized into that as it was a perfect chart for a fade. Not disappointed with not trading just to know that in the future to keep these on watch.
Things to remember:
1. Look at longer term weekly charts.
2. When a stock looks like it is reclaiming or has an inverted H&S and it doesn't breakout then short it for sure.
3. No bullshit trades. Only trades you have a plan for.
4. Remember: You have your risk and your profit targets and where you would add or size down. That is all trading is. You see a setup you like, you define your risk and where you would add etc and that is it.
5. Keep the other earnings on watch like these tech stocks that may get beatup for not posting great earnings/guidance.
6. Look for scenarios where a stock has bad news then is bought up then has a gap down on more bad news. People will want to get out.
7. No FOMO and no picking tops. Give things enough room.
8. Avoid thinks you don't understand.
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