Very small losing day. A couple of stupid trades but process-wise the day was decent. Improvements could be made still regarding not focusing on the money and PnL.
AKAO: I wasn't really sure how this would act so I just kept an open mind. These Phase III lower priced stocks can do different things. I saw bigger volume in the first few minutes and thought it was a stuff so I shorted it but while I was in it I thought it wasn't a good trade because of how REPH was and the fact that it didn't look like a good trade because it felt that it was just starting to go higher but I figured I would give it a shot. Process-wise this was a poor trade as I should have waited for more confirmation of anything at least but I did catch myself a little while in the trade but once I was in it I decided to see if it would work. I got stopped out and watched it go higher for most of the day. It did offer a nice consolidation pattern on low volume which is a good pattern but there was a constant seller in the 9.39 area. Even when he got eaten up it made me weary to try and go long because I was suspect of how real the move was and what was really going on. So the constant selling yet it getting bought up made me suspicious of it but I wasn't going to fight the trend. I put an order to short below a key support level but that never broke and while there was a seller in the 11.50-60 area I figured it would just get eaten up and continue higher, which is what happened but again with the constant selling I wasn't sure what to do. Later on, there was definitely a good seller in the 13.03 area so I tried shorting there and it worked for a scalp where I just kept lowering my stop because I didn't trust it. It then went higher anyway. So overall the lesson on these Phase III lower priced stocks is to be more bullish as with REPH and this and also wait for more confirmation on unknown news play like this for stuffs and shorting it then. Also know that even though there may be a constant seller, it doesn't mean that the stock can't eventually go higher when there are enough shorts to fuel the move.
FLO: I was looking for some failed followthrough momentum for a move back down due to the overdone aspect of the move Friday. When it broke $19 and popped back to it I gave it a shot and wanted to see what it would do. I gave it to the highs and it made a fake high then started coming off. It looked like it was just making a higher low so I took it off and reevaluated. I didn't want to be stuck with it if it wanted to go higher which it looked like it did and if it didn't I could get back in so that is what I chose to do. It did end up going back up and made a new high but that was the top. I let it chop around until it broke under $19. When it popped back to $19 I shorted it again. I should have done more size here as the risk was low and now that it was coming off later in the day it made it look a lot better. I had patience with it and let it go lower. I didn't really want to add on a breakdown just because it tends to pop right afterwards so I wanted to see any decent pop to add. It never really popped as it broke down under .80 and it did make new lows. I thought about adding there but didn't want to in case that low was going to be it. I wanted to see some lower highs in the .60s or below first but that never came. As I saw it had no followthrough to the downside I just moved my stop up which got me out. Lessons: In the morning, the 2min made it seem like $19 was peaking instead of it just being a flush through. But that is a little thing. It was good you gave it room and ended up taking a more reduced loss on it. I don't think it was necessary to hold it beyond that point where it was making a higher low. Shorting it when it peaked $19 was good. The only thing was to do it bigger. There really wasn't a spot I could have added that I was comfortable with.
OPHT: I saw some comments how their cash/share is $11 so this could be setup for a bounce. I kept an open mind and at the open it seemed like 8.86 was the support. I had a feeling that if it was going to go higher it would have to wash out any bounce buyers. It went to 8.85 and the bid starting absorbing a lot so I thought this was a good signal so I went in after it upticked a little. It went up a bit but it seemed so heavy still so I just put a breakeven stop that got me out. In reality I should have maybe just given it the full out but I guess I became unsure of it because even after the new fake low it was still heavy. It popped above $6 a couple of times but each time it got rejected although it looked bullish enough. Eventually it flushed lower so my thoughts were right on it. I became more short biased at this point on pops because everyone who was ever long the stock is underwater and it still stayed heavy throughout the whole process. I gave it a shot in the .80s a couple of times but figured that if it was going to go lower it would just fade after the retest. So when I would be up a few times I just put a breakeven stop. It did protect me and it did go a bit higher to retest $6 first. I knew if I got in I would have to give it more room just in case. So after it retested $6 it had some lower highs which I thought about shorting but didn't unfortunately. It did end up making new lows. It made a new low and then came back and that looked like that was it but then it faded even more. Lessons: The bounce attempt in the morning was worth it given the setup. The breakeven stops were meh. Sure it didn't work but I have to figure that I got a decent price and it was a low risk setup. If I'm unwilling to lose a little bit then what's the point? As for the shorts afterwards, they were worth a shot of course but the in and out with the breakeven stops were iffy. I guess I wasn't sure at that point still and should have done lesser size just in case. Once the lower highs were in though, it offered a good opportunity so I can't shun that.
CRC: I wasn't sure what direction at the open to play this and the oil names. They ended up fading but I wasn't confident enough to short them. I did see a decent stuff with big volume on CRC so I gave it a shot but when it looked like it was holding up I flipped long for the breakout and it worked but I moved my stop and it got me out and eventually went back lower. The process here so far was good. nothing to say. I took it off watch until later on it looked like it was ready to crack with a small consolidation underneath some support levels. I was aware of the low volume so I didn't give it much room. It ended up stopping me out and then going higher a bit before coming back down and making new lows. I think the small consolidation trade could have worked. I was too slow for the breakdown trade later on in the day (I didn't see it before when it came under vwap again).
ALXN: I was thinking about shorting it was it was consolidating under vwap but I didn't want to short breakdowns with the SSR on and the fact that it kept wicking up and down around the support before finally going lower. Plus it already had a big volume flush although it did go lower. I could have shorted pops but I wasn't really sure where to try.
Things to remember:
1. Lower priced Phase III stocks can be very good runners unless the data is shown to be BS.
2. Unless the news is complete BS and the company is known to be junk, wait for more confirmation before shorting. The stuffs etc out of the gate work the best on the most bullshit of companies.
3. Also know that even though there may be a constant seller, it doesn't
mean that the stock can't eventually go higher when there are enough
shorts to fuel the move.
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