White arrows are entries followed by exits.
WTW: I had this on watch for failed follow through thinking there would be more sellers after everybody chased the Oprah tweet and the stock fell quite a bit afterwards the next day. I knew there would still be bagholders and any weakness was an opportunity to short (SSR was on though). When it made new lows after a couple of minutes breaking 12.7 I tried to short and got filled. It did get a bit spready and spike up a bit on me but I held on. When it went red and peaked I added in thinking my trade thesis was valid. I got a nice flush and looked at the where the pre-Oprah tweet level was which was around $11.6. Therefore, I thought about holding on for any potential $12 wash and I would take my profits there. It broke the prior day's lows so I figured it could continue lower if I was patient and stuck with my plan. My plan was to hold it as long as $12.4 peaked. After it flushed, it started holding a bit but I stuck with my plan because I thought it could continue lower. I don't think there was any greed involved. However, I was only looking at the 1min chart and now looking at the 2/3min charts it looked like a short term bottom and capitulation with buyers who came in. After it started basing for a bit it just shot up and I wasn't going to let it go red on me so I took it off where I added and only made $ on my initial entry. My thesis is people put their stop below the LOD of the prior day and when that triggered it took everyone out and that was it. No more longs to dump their shares and thus the stock was able to rebound. Going forward I will keep this in mind.
WMB: I had the idea of shorting this if oil was weak. At first I wasn't interested but then I was after it went red on the day and looked to continue lower. However, oil wasn't rally tanking, although that doesn't mean this couldn't have gone lower. It did make a slight push which got it green again. However, when it went red again and couldn't sustain staying green that was an indication that it was ready to go lower.
AMDA: Didn't have this on watch since it was not shortable for me but I want to put it here as a note to keep calm. If I did trade this, I might have shorted it when it went red only to have it squeeze on me and shake everybody out. But that was the top for the day and it faded nicely from there.
WATT: I thought about trading this short after the initial run but ti looked like it was curling back up and while it looked like it was peaking at prior resistance again, it was 50/50 and something I didn't want to both with, similar to ENOC. It ended up working out but I think it's better that I didn't take the trade if I thought it was a 50/50 shot and no edge was there for me.
UVXY: I had this on watch because I was looking for a possible long because the SPY seemed overextended. However, after closer watch it was really just a grind upwards and nothing to take advantage of. However, later on when the SPY made what looked to be a lower high, UVXY barely inched upward and came right back down to lows. Once I saw that I thought it would be a good short candidate since fear seemed to be exiting the market and there was a chance the market was going to new highs. However, I thought it was still a possibility that the SPY could roll back down so I didn't take the trade. Plus, I didn't have shorts for it and only had shorts for VXX which really doesn't move that much. It ended being a decent fader for the rest of the day.
Things to work on:
1. See if a stock stops going down after breaking a prior day's lows.
2. Use multiple time frames (2/3/5) min charts even when in the trade.
No comments:
Post a Comment