Well, AMCN was a fucking waste of time and effort. Not only did my $100 gain turn into a $10 loss but I only focused on that since I had a big position in it and missed potential trades in CALA, SGYP, and CNIT. I thought for sure this would be a big winner as it was getting to yesterday's lows but right when it hit 4.75 it just ramped back and caused me to cover at the top when it spiked above r/g. The only good thing is I don't have to pay the 1% overnight fee at Suretrader which would have added up to be a lot for over just one day. Plus, it didn't do much after I essentially topticked my cover. Even for one day it was $20 which is another typical full trade loss for me. I really thought it could go back to $3.50s at the very least if the deal is BS, which I think it is, but the price action is saying otherwise so I am not sure. I would think the stock would just fade like NQ did but it's holding up. Could I have taken gains? Sure. But I had a pretty strong conviction about this so I was willing to wait it out, but almost going r/g was too much for me. What a bullshit bounce.
Hope to just focus tomorrow on new plays.
Things to work on:
1. Not sure. Like I said I could have taken gains but I was willing to be patient even when it started bouncing because the entire move could turn out to be for nothing if the deal is BS. I sized into what I thought would be a great opportunity which is good and was patient with it. It just didn't work out.
Monday, June 22, 2015
Saturday, June 20, 2015
Trading Recap 6/19/15
I took two day trades and one bigger, full-size swing trade that I really hope works. The day trades didn't work out and the swing trade I am currently flat on, but hope to wake up to a gap down and flush on the stock to give me a nice buffer so I don't take too much of a loss. On a somewhat related note, I would like to get better at just staying at the computer when there is action to take advantage of and then go do something else when there isn't because otherwise I just get a headache and antsy and just think I am wasting my time.
White arrows are entries followed by exits:
POZN: The daily chart is pretty extended and so I thought any weakness would result in a good short. I saw that it had gone red for the first time in a couple of days and rejected r/g so I started in short with r/g over/under as my risk. It popped above it but then got rejected before holding higher lows and eventually it looked like an ABCD pattern and when it triggered I took it off for a small loss. It ended up going higher so it was a good cover. Hindsight says I could have taken the ABCD long but it was overextended chart and I did not think it could go that much higher. I will keep this on watch though.
W: I saw this stock had a nice day up and so I had this on watch for r/g and especially because of the big short float. I thought this could rip. I saw what looked like a curling/higher lows/ABCD and I knew I would be pissed if I didn't take because the setup looked really good. It broke out for a bit but then came right back down and so I sold out for a very small loss. I might still have this on watch depending on if there are any other better plays for next week.
AMCN: This is the stock that I am swinging short. There were a few candidates to swing short like AMCN, ANTH, and a couple of others but I thought that if it worked out, it would be the best % gainer. It might also be the riskiest of the options but I think it will work out. The story behind this was a huge drop over the past few days after the company sold 75% of their ad business. I am guessing the insiders were not too happy and may have wanted to get out, therefore they put up a "non-binding" offer to take the company private for $6/share. Originally out of the gate I was looking for a short or a long depending on the action. Right out of the gate I thought a short would work since 4.9 seemed to be peaking as resistance and I thought it could fade. But then it held and went up and I thought it could squeeze, so I thought about going long but never got in. I waited for the squeeze to happen to get short but then it never really came and it looked pretty weak. I then started in short half size with the potential to swing it if 5 breaks. After staring at the screen for the entire day waiting to add after a 5 break, I saw it had gotten stuffed for the late day breakout attempt which helped to confirm my reasoning to add in short. So after it got stuffed I waited until 5 was on the bid and it was thinning out to try and get filled on the rest of my shares which I did and while it did go back above 5, I am still holding in hopes for a gap down. I have seen offers like this turn out to be fake like NQ but have also heard of some being real. However, to me it makes perfect sense for the insiders to want to get out after this huge drop. If I am right, I would like to cover if it goes below $3.5 with $3 being ideal. I already have an order in for $3 for all my shares in case some bad news comes out and it tanks.
(Chart below is my two entries since I still have the full position)
Things to work on:
1. Nothing comes to mind even though both day trades didn't work. I think they were good trades that I cut off when the chart was showing otherwise.
White arrows are entries followed by exits:
POZN: The daily chart is pretty extended and so I thought any weakness would result in a good short. I saw that it had gone red for the first time in a couple of days and rejected r/g so I started in short with r/g over/under as my risk. It popped above it but then got rejected before holding higher lows and eventually it looked like an ABCD pattern and when it triggered I took it off for a small loss. It ended up going higher so it was a good cover. Hindsight says I could have taken the ABCD long but it was overextended chart and I did not think it could go that much higher. I will keep this on watch though.
W: I saw this stock had a nice day up and so I had this on watch for r/g and especially because of the big short float. I thought this could rip. I saw what looked like a curling/higher lows/ABCD and I knew I would be pissed if I didn't take because the setup looked really good. It broke out for a bit but then came right back down and so I sold out for a very small loss. I might still have this on watch depending on if there are any other better plays for next week.
AMCN: This is the stock that I am swinging short. There were a few candidates to swing short like AMCN, ANTH, and a couple of others but I thought that if it worked out, it would be the best % gainer. It might also be the riskiest of the options but I think it will work out. The story behind this was a huge drop over the past few days after the company sold 75% of their ad business. I am guessing the insiders were not too happy and may have wanted to get out, therefore they put up a "non-binding" offer to take the company private for $6/share. Originally out of the gate I was looking for a short or a long depending on the action. Right out of the gate I thought a short would work since 4.9 seemed to be peaking as resistance and I thought it could fade. But then it held and went up and I thought it could squeeze, so I thought about going long but never got in. I waited for the squeeze to happen to get short but then it never really came and it looked pretty weak. I then started in short half size with the potential to swing it if 5 breaks. After staring at the screen for the entire day waiting to add after a 5 break, I saw it had gotten stuffed for the late day breakout attempt which helped to confirm my reasoning to add in short. So after it got stuffed I waited until 5 was on the bid and it was thinning out to try and get filled on the rest of my shares which I did and while it did go back above 5, I am still holding in hopes for a gap down. I have seen offers like this turn out to be fake like NQ but have also heard of some being real. However, to me it makes perfect sense for the insiders to want to get out after this huge drop. If I am right, I would like to cover if it goes below $3.5 with $3 being ideal. I already have an order in for $3 for all my shares in case some bad news comes out and it tanks.
(Chart below is my two entries since I still have the full position)
Things to work on:
1. Nothing comes to mind even though both day trades didn't work. I think they were good trades that I cut off when the chart was showing otherwise.
Thursday, June 18, 2015
Trading Recap 6/18/15
Not the best way to start off with the new account but I am still getting back into the swing of things. I have kept my losses small by starting in small and waiting to add into winners. I only played one stock today, SGYP, both long and short, and only played it 100 shares each time with the idea to scale bigger into a winner. Therefore, my losses were small on both trades. Overall, I am happy to be back and hope to have some new-found success.
I will also start writing about some other trades that I didn't take but either were interested in or wanted to get in but didn't get filled.
White arrows are entries followed by exits.
SGYP: I did not have much of a bias either way but I guess I was a little more short biased going into it. After the morning emotion happened I saw that it was consolidating above HOD and it fell and made a lower high which I thought was a good short entry so I decided to short and I was up for a little on my 100 shares looking to add in if the .30s peaked. That never happened of course and I stopped out for a small loss, which at the time was almost a top tick on the top. My original trade was .50 over/under and it never violated that but I am trying to keep my losses very small no matter what. After the .30s held I thought about going long and so when it grinded off the .30s and looked to break the .50s I went long in the .40s and I thought it was going to break out when it went to .54 but it was just a huge stuff and I sold it for a loss and thought it was done and if it peaked in the .30s I would just short pops. It kept holding and I had thought about going long but I wasn't at my computer at the time when it started coming back and when the EOD breakout happened. For the picture, the short and cover is first and then the long and sell afterwards.
POZN: I wanted to short it after the run it made near 11.40 which would have worked but I decided against it when I was about to fill.
Things to work on:
1. Just keep grinding it out and maybe let the trade when you have small size work when a stock tests your stop over/under. Have to find a balance between stopping out for small losses and letting the trade work over/under.
I will also start writing about some other trades that I didn't take but either were interested in or wanted to get in but didn't get filled.
White arrows are entries followed by exits.
SGYP: I did not have much of a bias either way but I guess I was a little more short biased going into it. After the morning emotion happened I saw that it was consolidating above HOD and it fell and made a lower high which I thought was a good short entry so I decided to short and I was up for a little on my 100 shares looking to add in if the .30s peaked. That never happened of course and I stopped out for a small loss, which at the time was almost a top tick on the top. My original trade was .50 over/under and it never violated that but I am trying to keep my losses very small no matter what. After the .30s held I thought about going long and so when it grinded off the .30s and looked to break the .50s I went long in the .40s and I thought it was going to break out when it went to .54 but it was just a huge stuff and I sold it for a loss and thought it was done and if it peaked in the .30s I would just short pops. It kept holding and I had thought about going long but I wasn't at my computer at the time when it started coming back and when the EOD breakout happened. For the picture, the short and cover is first and then the long and sell afterwards.
POZN: I wanted to short it after the run it made near 11.40 which would have worked but I decided against it when I was about to fill.
Things to work on:
1. Just keep grinding it out and maybe let the trade when you have small size work when a stock tests your stop over/under. Have to find a balance between stopping out for small losses and letting the trade work over/under.
Wednesday, June 17, 2015
Thoughts on what has worked for me and what hasn't as I start trading again
Well I was able to sell a watch that my parents bought for me in '08/'09 and that nobody cared about to get some money to refill my account back to near $1300. Not a lot and I expect to lose it like last time since it is still way too small of an account size but it is what I have so I have to make it work. I might have a better chance though this time since I have been looking at what has worked for me and what hasn't and I may implement some new rules due to my small account size. One thing to note is that including the VBLT stupid loss of -255, my losses since my first trade in February to now have equaled my commissions. Both are $590 along with $100 in ECN fees. Without that VBLT loss I would be at about $350 in losses, which wouldn't be bad if there weren't commissions. Anyway, the point of this post is to gather some info as I go through my previous trades since day 1.
This will probably end up being a random collection of thoughts/notes:
1. Don't take commissions into account when wanting to stop out breakeven including commissions. Let the trade work out. Obviously, commissions equaled the amount of losses you had (or more not including VBLT) but it is the cost of doing business and $5 saved is nothing. I rather let the trade work. So, don't try to save commissions on a trade you are already in. Forget it.
2. Have no idea of "confirmation". Confirmation is after the fact. If a stock is at a point where you can have a good r/r then do it. Confirmation is only after the fact when it is too late. Too many times I have been waiting for "confirmation" and by the time I get it, it is too late and I missed another trade.
3. While having patience with winners is good, always look to take the trade off. Capital preservation is key and having any winner, over time, will add up. It is much better than what has happened before at times when I had a decent win but failed to take it off and I was at breakeven. A balance of patience and locking in is key. This will have to be adjusted as time goes on.
4. Try to see if you can wait until a higher low/lower high has really formed before buying/shorting. This may be in conflict with #2 but not so much. I am just looking for a little drop and confirmed lower high or a little perk off a higher low for more confidence. I have seen many times where a stock will have what looks like a lower high forming and then in the middle of it, it just rips. So that can save me from some potential fakes.
5. Always look to reenter a trade if it sets up again. Look for retests of prior support as resistance for shorts and vice versa for longs. Conversely, don't try to play a stock if the move happened already and there is just scraps left.
6. Try to get to breakeven as quick as possible. Examples: CONN, GENE, OREX, and more I am sure as I am going through my posts as I type this. On CONN, I could have easily brokeven and re-evaluated if it setup again. On my OREX short, I could have put a breakeven stop if it came back and avoided taking a loss on that. Same with GENE. The WBAI trade was stupid due to my small stop and the fact that anything could happen overnight and in the AM.
7. Stay cautious on front side of move. Perhaps scalp only as Nate always says - even with bigger size.
8. Look at multiple timeframes.
This will probably end up being a random collection of thoughts/notes:
1. Don't take commissions into account when wanting to stop out breakeven including commissions. Let the trade work out. Obviously, commissions equaled the amount of losses you had (or more not including VBLT) but it is the cost of doing business and $5 saved is nothing. I rather let the trade work. So, don't try to save commissions on a trade you are already in. Forget it.
2. Have no idea of "confirmation". Confirmation is after the fact. If a stock is at a point where you can have a good r/r then do it. Confirmation is only after the fact when it is too late. Too many times I have been waiting for "confirmation" and by the time I get it, it is too late and I missed another trade.
3. While having patience with winners is good, always look to take the trade off. Capital preservation is key and having any winner, over time, will add up. It is much better than what has happened before at times when I had a decent win but failed to take it off and I was at breakeven. A balance of patience and locking in is key. This will have to be adjusted as time goes on.
4. Try to see if you can wait until a higher low/lower high has really formed before buying/shorting. This may be in conflict with #2 but not so much. I am just looking for a little drop and confirmed lower high or a little perk off a higher low for more confidence. I have seen many times where a stock will have what looks like a lower high forming and then in the middle of it, it just rips. So that can save me from some potential fakes.
5. Always look to reenter a trade if it sets up again. Look for retests of prior support as resistance for shorts and vice versa for longs. Conversely, don't try to play a stock if the move happened already and there is just scraps left.
6. Try to get to breakeven as quick as possible. Examples: CONN, GENE, OREX, and more I am sure as I am going through my posts as I type this. On CONN, I could have easily brokeven and re-evaluated if it setup again. On my OREX short, I could have put a breakeven stop if it came back and avoided taking a loss on that. Same with GENE. The WBAI trade was stupid due to my small stop and the fact that anything could happen overnight and in the AM.
7. Stay cautious on front side of move. Perhaps scalp only as Nate always says - even with bigger size.
8. Look at multiple timeframes.
Friday, May 29, 2015
Trading Recap 5/29/15
Well, that's a wrap, folks. I blew up in spectacular fashion due to my own stupid thinking. I'll be out of the game for a while probably unless either: a) there is a huge runner that I go long with 100 shares and get back to over $500 or b) somehow get money to refill since I am broke by selling a school laptop that isn't even technically mine yet. I had a lot of foolish ideas of how I would come close to that $500 mark and somehow make it from there and while it was possible, I just was somehow too stupid to do it even in this crazy market. Anyway, I'll probably take a minimum of at least a week off from trading unless some runner does appear. I have around $250 in my account now with no margin. My stupidity caused me to have my biggest loser yet because I was already in that "fuck it" mode with being so close to $500.
Anyway, here are my horrible trades for today.
White arrows are entries followed by exits.
HRTX: Didn't even know this was a crowded play but anyway I saw on twitter that the data they released was junk so I had a short bias. Also, if you look at the weekly chart it has pretty good resistance around 18. In premarket it went to 18 and came back down and opened around 17.2. I saw that the 17s were basing and when they fell and retested as resistance I thought I was good and entered a short with 17 over/under. For a little I thought I was good until it came back and popped through 17 all of a sudden and I covered. This loss combined with commissions had me at just above $500 and I thought well Monday it will either be do or die.
Until..
VBLT: I lost money going long. Yes, that's right. After all the money was made going long from 7s to 8s I monitored it to see if there would be any continuation. I saw an ABCD pattern forming and decided to go long after the C broke. I didn't think this was such an extended chart since the daily was flagging so I thought it would be ok to buy since it wouldn't stuff and we are in the market for things to run anyway. Well, I was pretty fucking close to top ticking it (top was 8.69 and entry was 8.65). It came back down immediately after I bought it but I thought it might just be setting up for a nHOD. I also thought that if this doesn't work then I'm done and under $500. Not even a breakeven would save me since there would be $10 in commissions at least. However, I didn't care to think and say "well, if I cut if off even if I am under $500 I can refill a little and get back". So I stuck with the trade as it flushed and I had my biggest unrealized loss and at that point I just said fuck it. It spiked up a few times which gave me a little hope of a rebound but it just fell and I ended up selling after my stop limit at 8.05 just didn't get hit as it flushed a bunch past that. Total loss of $255 + commissions. Very stupid.
Things to work on:
1. Get more money somehow so I can probably lose it all again.
Anyway, here are my horrible trades for today.
White arrows are entries followed by exits.
HRTX: Didn't even know this was a crowded play but anyway I saw on twitter that the data they released was junk so I had a short bias. Also, if you look at the weekly chart it has pretty good resistance around 18. In premarket it went to 18 and came back down and opened around 17.2. I saw that the 17s were basing and when they fell and retested as resistance I thought I was good and entered a short with 17 over/under. For a little I thought I was good until it came back and popped through 17 all of a sudden and I covered. This loss combined with commissions had me at just above $500 and I thought well Monday it will either be do or die.
Until..
VBLT: I lost money going long. Yes, that's right. After all the money was made going long from 7s to 8s I monitored it to see if there would be any continuation. I saw an ABCD pattern forming and decided to go long after the C broke. I didn't think this was such an extended chart since the daily was flagging so I thought it would be ok to buy since it wouldn't stuff and we are in the market for things to run anyway. Well, I was pretty fucking close to top ticking it (top was 8.69 and entry was 8.65). It came back down immediately after I bought it but I thought it might just be setting up for a nHOD. I also thought that if this doesn't work then I'm done and under $500. Not even a breakeven would save me since there would be $10 in commissions at least. However, I didn't care to think and say "well, if I cut if off even if I am under $500 I can refill a little and get back". So I stuck with the trade as it flushed and I had my biggest unrealized loss and at that point I just said fuck it. It spiked up a few times which gave me a little hope of a rebound but it just fell and I ended up selling after my stop limit at 8.05 just didn't get hit as it flushed a bunch past that. Total loss of $255 + commissions. Very stupid.
Things to work on:
1. Get more money somehow so I can probably lose it all again.
Wednesday, May 27, 2015
Trading Recap 5/27/15
Today was an interesting day. My first trade made me go below $500 and I thought I was screwed and that was it but then when I was under $500 I saw that my bp was still 6:1 and not restricted. I figured that it would disallow margin by tomorrow when the equity in the account updates. That gave me until the end of the day to get back to over $500. And that is what I did by taking pretty much the exact trade again that made me lose in the first place. So including commissions I am about breakeven/slightly positive.
White arrows are entries followed by exits.
GBSN: I shorted around 10:00AM at $4.4 for what I thought was the lower highs after the 9:45-10AM spike. I knew that based on the chart history that this has a tendency to fade at least a little to a lot and so I figured there wouldn't be much risk. If I was playing normal size, that would be the case but since I went full bp I had to cover right away when it spiked. I actually shorted right before it spiked so that was probably the quickest trade ever for me. To me, it looked like a set of lower highs but I guess if you look at a 2min or more timeframe it was a flag but the 9:45 typical spike along with the chart's history and lower highs on the 1 min gave me confidence in the trade. Nevertheless, after I covered and was below $500 in account equity I knew I had to get back to above $500 before the day's end. So, like I said in the intro I took the same trad pretty much but a little later. I saw the HOD consolidation and when it broke that to the downside, I knew that chart pattern from before and that gave me confidence to go in again. I shorted around $4.4 again and unfortunately didn't hold for the entire day because I thought it could go up, but I also needed a decent win so I played it safe.
White arrows are entries followed by exits.
GBSN: I shorted around 10:00AM at $4.4 for what I thought was the lower highs after the 9:45-10AM spike. I knew that based on the chart history that this has a tendency to fade at least a little to a lot and so I figured there wouldn't be much risk. If I was playing normal size, that would be the case but since I went full bp I had to cover right away when it spiked. I actually shorted right before it spiked so that was probably the quickest trade ever for me. To me, it looked like a set of lower highs but I guess if you look at a 2min or more timeframe it was a flag but the 9:45 typical spike along with the chart's history and lower highs on the 1 min gave me confidence in the trade. Nevertheless, after I covered and was below $500 in account equity I knew I had to get back to above $500 before the day's end. So, like I said in the intro I took the same trad pretty much but a little later. I saw the HOD consolidation and when it broke that to the downside, I knew that chart pattern from before and that gave me confidence to go in again. I shorted around $4.4 again and unfortunately didn't hold for the entire day because I thought it could go up, but I also needed a decent win so I played it safe.
Things to work on:
1. Just be aware that anything can happen and while something may appear to be a lower high or higher low etc, it can spike or flush at any moment.
2. Consult other timeframes for additional evidence.
Tuesday, May 26, 2015
Trading Recap 5/26/15
Not the way I wanted to start the weekend but I am still in the game.
White arrows are entries followed by exits.
RENN: I saw that this chart was overextended and was looking to short it. It set up similar to the way ACRX did with failed follow through momentum and then a retest of its prior support. I shorted after it retested and it looked it wash 20 cents or so. However, it ended up just being a higher low and going up, which caused me to cover my shares but I only got a partial fill and had to send in multiple orders (even one for 2 shares since I got filled up to 52 shares and only did the order for 50 shares by accident). That cost me extra commission unfortunately. My risk was to 3.80 over/under but I covered it a little early since I saw it was just a higher low instead. It ended up doing nothing the rest of the day anyway and it held those 3.75s.
Things to work on:
1. Nothing really to work on I think. If I had waited a bit I would have seen that instead of a lower high, it might have been a higher low. But that is all in hindsight since it looked like it was ready to fade off with the failed retest and over extension on the daily. One thing that did concern me though was the huge volume that came in that barely caused the stock to drop. Those are usually the LODs for a stock.
White arrows are entries followed by exits.
RENN: I saw that this chart was overextended and was looking to short it. It set up similar to the way ACRX did with failed follow through momentum and then a retest of its prior support. I shorted after it retested and it looked it wash 20 cents or so. However, it ended up just being a higher low and going up, which caused me to cover my shares but I only got a partial fill and had to send in multiple orders (even one for 2 shares since I got filled up to 52 shares and only did the order for 50 shares by accident). That cost me extra commission unfortunately. My risk was to 3.80 over/under but I covered it a little early since I saw it was just a higher low instead. It ended up doing nothing the rest of the day anyway and it held those 3.75s.
Things to work on:
1. Nothing really to work on I think. If I had waited a bit I would have seen that instead of a lower high, it might have been a higher low. But that is all in hindsight since it looked like it was ready to fade off with the failed retest and over extension on the daily. One thing that did concern me though was the huge volume that came in that barely caused the stock to drop. Those are usually the LODs for a stock.
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