Saturday, January 7, 2017
Trading Recap 1/6/17
Friday was a flat trading day although there was a decent amount of opportunity that I missed out on. Friday basically came down to "meh". What I mean by that is me starting to feel that any particular idea or trade comes down to "maybe it can work, maybe not.. meh". While that can be an ok mindset and can lead to a probabilities mindset, I am taking it to the extreme which isn't good. I thought maybe it comes down to not having a positive expectation of the system of trades I take. I thought it could be a bunch of other stuff but basically I guess it comes down to having this mindset but just taking the trades anyway and just learning as time goes on when and what stocks to buy or short. That is pretty much it as far as a recap goes. I didn't trade much at all even though there was decent opportunity. ALXN for instance looked just like ACIA did on one day before it had a nice move upward but I never took the trade due to that meh. GPS I had a right read on even though my bias was long initially but after seeing how it was trading I became more short biased but didn't take it either. The only trades I took were on REGN and AMGN - both I had solid ideas on and AMGN I had decent trades on but ended up flat on that even though I would have made decent money. For REGN I didn't get in when I wanted to because of that meh and then finally got in at a random point and just got out for flat.
Thursday, January 5, 2017
Trading Recap 1/5/17
Today ended up being better than yesterday. It was a similar story though. Bullshit trades in the morning and then working my way back to positive and actually having a decent profitable day. But the bullshit trades have to stop.
Some new things to also remember and work on:
1. RULE #1 FOR ME: UNLESS I SEE THE TRADE RIGHT AWAY AND "AM EXCITED FOR IT" THEN DON'T BOTHER. CHANCES ARE IT WON'T WORK FOR ME.
2. Don't use the tick chart unless what it is saying aligns with the 3/5min chart.
3. It's much better to wish you were in a trade than wish you were out of one.
4. Unless you are very clear about a S/R level then don't bother with it. If it's not major or at least clearly defined then don't bother. If you have to squint and look at different angles to see it and think about it then don't bother.
5. Just trade the setups you see from rule #1 above with bigger size and that is it.
Misc:
You must keep a calm focus throughout the session. You must avoid thinking in terms of PnL and shift your attention to what the market is doing. Avoid talking about generic things like missing moves, just focus on the patterns you see and do those better.
Some new things to also remember and work on:
1. RULE #1 FOR ME: UNLESS I SEE THE TRADE RIGHT AWAY AND "AM EXCITED FOR IT" THEN DON'T BOTHER. CHANCES ARE IT WON'T WORK FOR ME.
2. Don't use the tick chart unless what it is saying aligns with the 3/5min chart.
3. It's much better to wish you were in a trade than wish you were out of one.
4. Unless you are very clear about a S/R level then don't bother with it. If it's not major or at least clearly defined then don't bother. If you have to squint and look at different angles to see it and think about it then don't bother.
5. Just trade the setups you see from rule #1 above with bigger size and that is it.
Misc:
You must keep a calm focus throughout the session. You must avoid thinking in terms of PnL and shift your attention to what the market is doing. Avoid talking about generic things like missing moves, just focus on the patterns you see and do those better.
Wednesday, January 4, 2017
Trading Recap 1/4/17
Frustrating day today although I guess there are a few lessons to be learned. I was down a lot in the morning and then made it all back and was flat before going right back to where I was in the morning by the end of the day.
Basically a list of things to remember going forward:
1. Don't short a stock above its offering price even if it sets up for it.
2. If you actually take a trade then it means you are fully committed to it and that means it has to be good enough for you to risk over/under on and give it enough room. There should be no breakeven trades just because you are afraid of losing money. That is bad process assuming it is a good trade.
3. Don't try to pick the top on something even though it looks good. Today on WTW it had big volume and had a certain pattern running right into daily chart resistance. Of course looking back it was crowded short and whenever the small amount of times I do think "this should be easy" is when I should probably do the opposite. Also, the big volume running into resistance hasn't been a good setup as it has never worked for me so just because it is doing that, I will not be taking that trade from now on.
4. On the things you expect to just go up or down a bit, they end up going a lot higher/lower. The stuff you have high expectations for usually don't work out so well probably because everyone is thinking the same thing. Keep that in mind.
5. I keep seeing that these big volume spikes don't have much to do with anything. It is really contextual. I can't just make a trade based on the volume. Of course I have seen it work time and time again but perhaps it is more on the low floats. It works occasionally on larger cap stocks as well but that should not be my only reason for taking a trade.
6. What I said yesterday - the chart can do anything. S/R are the only thing that matters.
7. Don't bother with iffy trades.
8. Today I traded LABU today and I honestly don't know what I saw with each pattern I took. I really don't know what I saw. I have to so much more aware of being sure what I am seeing is actually what is there - as weird as that sounds due to me being a very visual person. This was my biggest losing ticker today for that exact reason. After I had one bad trade on it, I did another bad trade on it which cost me even more. My initial idea ended up being the correct idea and it was using higher timeframe S/R! I said it would retest the breakout area as support and then go higher which is exactly what it did!! Keep that in mind going forward.
9. Don't discount what SPY is doing when trading certain stocks.
10. No bullshit trades.
11. Use the level 2 sparingly. On CLVS, there was a seller there but he eventually got bought up and the stock was a trender the entire day so don't discount what it is doing based on the level 2. In most cases, the level 2 will harm you.
12. Use S/R despite fake highs/lows.
13. Don't have high hopes for a miracle flush or something to make a trade worth it, especially at EOD.
14. I think just stick with the 5min and use the 3min for when you are really considering something.
Basically a list of things to remember going forward:
1. Don't short a stock above its offering price even if it sets up for it.
2. If you actually take a trade then it means you are fully committed to it and that means it has to be good enough for you to risk over/under on and give it enough room. There should be no breakeven trades just because you are afraid of losing money. That is bad process assuming it is a good trade.
3. Don't try to pick the top on something even though it looks good. Today on WTW it had big volume and had a certain pattern running right into daily chart resistance. Of course looking back it was crowded short and whenever the small amount of times I do think "this should be easy" is when I should probably do the opposite. Also, the big volume running into resistance hasn't been a good setup as it has never worked for me so just because it is doing that, I will not be taking that trade from now on.
4. On the things you expect to just go up or down a bit, they end up going a lot higher/lower. The stuff you have high expectations for usually don't work out so well probably because everyone is thinking the same thing. Keep that in mind.
5. I keep seeing that these big volume spikes don't have much to do with anything. It is really contextual. I can't just make a trade based on the volume. Of course I have seen it work time and time again but perhaps it is more on the low floats. It works occasionally on larger cap stocks as well but that should not be my only reason for taking a trade.
6. What I said yesterday - the chart can do anything. S/R are the only thing that matters.
7. Don't bother with iffy trades.
8. Today I traded LABU today and I honestly don't know what I saw with each pattern I took. I really don't know what I saw. I have to so much more aware of being sure what I am seeing is actually what is there - as weird as that sounds due to me being a very visual person. This was my biggest losing ticker today for that exact reason. After I had one bad trade on it, I did another bad trade on it which cost me even more. My initial idea ended up being the correct idea and it was using higher timeframe S/R! I said it would retest the breakout area as support and then go higher which is exactly what it did!! Keep that in mind going forward.
9. Don't discount what SPY is doing when trading certain stocks.
10. No bullshit trades.
11. Use the level 2 sparingly. On CLVS, there was a seller there but he eventually got bought up and the stock was a trender the entire day so don't discount what it is doing based on the level 2. In most cases, the level 2 will harm you.
12. Use S/R despite fake highs/lows.
13. Don't have high hopes for a miracle flush or something to make a trade worth it, especially at EOD.
14. I think just stick with the 5min and use the 3min for when you are really considering something.
Tuesday, January 3, 2017
Trading Recap 1/3/17
Slightly positive day to start off the new year. Should have been a lot more. I must continue to realize that it is ok to lose money in this profession on the setups that make sense to you - and only those. I was more selective today in what I wanted to trade but was still hesitant in executing on trades I thought were good. However, thinking just purely in terms of s/r and going by that almost exclusively for my trades has proven to be a good change and one that I need to continue focusing on in order to avoid any bullshit trades.
NVDA: I wasn't sure if I should long dips or short pops on this at the open so I decided to wait it out and see what would happen. At the open it dropped, ripped back, and then formed some sort of a "pattern" of mine where it looked like it got rejected but I wasn't going to take a trade based on that. I am fully committed to rework my trading to really just focus on s/r trades as looking at charts now make things seem much clearer for me and how my mind works. It made a new low but then came right back to the same level as the prior low. This is another "pattern" of mine that also would have worked in this instance. But I am "detoxing" myself from any bullshit trade so I wasn't going to take them. After it made new highs and retested the support from Friday where I thought about shorting but decided to wait for more info, it came back down below the breakout area from before. This here was a legit trade. Unfortunately I didn't get in here. I'm not sure had I even put an order in that I would have gotten filled. I guess a potential lesson here is to break up your order maybe and do half at the lower end of where you think it will peak and then if it goes towards the higher end then add the other half and you can stop out if it goes any higher. The part I actually got in for was quick, I saw it was peaking a small area of prior support and looked like it could fade. I shorted it on a "pop" and was immediately in the money and right after I shorted it, it dropped and made new lows. I had put a bid in for a $1 lower than where it went. I was contemplating if I should move my stop up or not or let it test around to see if it could go lower. It did break on decent volume so that made me think if it got above $100 again then I'd just get out. It ended up going through $100 by a bit and getting me out. I thought it was a mistake at the time but it ended up making a higher low and then rebounding. Process wise it's 50/50 as to whether or not I should have moved my stop up or let it test around with a breakeven stop at worse. When it started going below some lows I thought it could fade more so when it dropped $100 and started peaking it a little I shorted there. Here, I put a breakeven stop and it was for the best results-wise. But I probably should have given it the full out to over $100. It was one of those "it should work right away moments" and while it worked here it's not good process. The bigger reason probably is because it was a chase on the normal chart and not the tick chart I was looking at so that might be the reason I was anxious.
DUST: I bought this on what looked like a bullflag pattern that ended up being a fakeout. It looked like a decent bull flag but it just faked out/I bought at resistance. I gave it a decent amount of room on smaller size but I knew it faked out. I might try this again though as I have seen it work. Maybe I should just focus on the dips/pops though. Later in the day I thought GDX was topping and at one point had a fake breakout and a lower high so I bought DUST on a dip twice. The first time I prematurely stopped out although I figured at that point it wasn't going to work. Then it did start to work a little but then I put a breakeven stop as we were getting towards the close and it really was just going to either work or it wasn't. The pattern on the GDX was quite weird and it ended up going higher at the last minute at EOD. It ended up shaking people out and then reclaiming and then going higher. Not much to learn from this experience as it could have definitely worked and the higher timeframe didn't negate what I thought was going to happen to happen. The only thing to take away is to be more selective with the flags you take and possibly just stick to s/r.
Things to remember:
1. I must continue to realize that it is ok to lose money in this profession on the setups that make sense to you - and only those.
2. A potential lesson here is to break up your order maybe and do half at the lower end of where you think it will peak and then if it goes towards the higher end then add the other half and you can stop out if it goes any higher.
3. Any pattern/chart can do anything - just play off of s/r.
4. Volume exhaustion has to make sense in context - IDXG the biggest volume was way early in the run. It's not always the best indicator of a top or bottom.
NVDA: I wasn't sure if I should long dips or short pops on this at the open so I decided to wait it out and see what would happen. At the open it dropped, ripped back, and then formed some sort of a "pattern" of mine where it looked like it got rejected but I wasn't going to take a trade based on that. I am fully committed to rework my trading to really just focus on s/r trades as looking at charts now make things seem much clearer for me and how my mind works. It made a new low but then came right back to the same level as the prior low. This is another "pattern" of mine that also would have worked in this instance. But I am "detoxing" myself from any bullshit trade so I wasn't going to take them. After it made new highs and retested the support from Friday where I thought about shorting but decided to wait for more info, it came back down below the breakout area from before. This here was a legit trade. Unfortunately I didn't get in here. I'm not sure had I even put an order in that I would have gotten filled. I guess a potential lesson here is to break up your order maybe and do half at the lower end of where you think it will peak and then if it goes towards the higher end then add the other half and you can stop out if it goes any higher. The part I actually got in for was quick, I saw it was peaking a small area of prior support and looked like it could fade. I shorted it on a "pop" and was immediately in the money and right after I shorted it, it dropped and made new lows. I had put a bid in for a $1 lower than where it went. I was contemplating if I should move my stop up or not or let it test around to see if it could go lower. It did break on decent volume so that made me think if it got above $100 again then I'd just get out. It ended up going through $100 by a bit and getting me out. I thought it was a mistake at the time but it ended up making a higher low and then rebounding. Process wise it's 50/50 as to whether or not I should have moved my stop up or let it test around with a breakeven stop at worse. When it started going below some lows I thought it could fade more so when it dropped $100 and started peaking it a little I shorted there. Here, I put a breakeven stop and it was for the best results-wise. But I probably should have given it the full out to over $100. It was one of those "it should work right away moments" and while it worked here it's not good process. The bigger reason probably is because it was a chase on the normal chart and not the tick chart I was looking at so that might be the reason I was anxious.
DUST: I bought this on what looked like a bullflag pattern that ended up being a fakeout. It looked like a decent bull flag but it just faked out/I bought at resistance. I gave it a decent amount of room on smaller size but I knew it faked out. I might try this again though as I have seen it work. Maybe I should just focus on the dips/pops though. Later in the day I thought GDX was topping and at one point had a fake breakout and a lower high so I bought DUST on a dip twice. The first time I prematurely stopped out although I figured at that point it wasn't going to work. Then it did start to work a little but then I put a breakeven stop as we were getting towards the close and it really was just going to either work or it wasn't. The pattern on the GDX was quite weird and it ended up going higher at the last minute at EOD. It ended up shaking people out and then reclaiming and then going higher. Not much to learn from this experience as it could have definitely worked and the higher timeframe didn't negate what I thought was going to happen to happen. The only thing to take away is to be more selective with the flags you take and possibly just stick to s/r.
Things to remember:
1. I must continue to realize that it is ok to lose money in this profession on the setups that make sense to you - and only those.
2. A potential lesson here is to break up your order maybe and do half at the lower end of where you think it will peak and then if it goes towards the higher end then add the other half and you can stop out if it goes any higher.
3. Any pattern/chart can do anything - just play off of s/r.
4. Volume exhaustion has to make sense in context - IDXG the biggest volume was way early in the run. It's not always the best indicator of a top or bottom.
Saturday, December 31, 2016
Trading Recap 12/30/16
Friday was a small losing day but it is frustrating to think of what it could have been. Poor drawing of s/r lines and the thought process of taking charts too literally and trying bullshit trades led to small losses which should have been big wins had I just followed some simple techniques.
CAB: I somehow ended up down slightly on the longside on this even though I bought $57 in premarket... Yes, you heard me right. I bought it at $57 and it went to $59 eventually and throughout the day I ended up down on it. What ended up happening was I was long $57 due to a consolidation pattern and the fact that I thought the move was overdone to the downside as the acquisition was still happening, it just won't happen on the same schedule as before. I figured some funds would liquidate and some other would pick it up to give it a shot. With the consolidation, I also saw an aggressive bidder that kept refreshing. The thing was that I was afraid since it was premarket and the liquidity wasn't the greatest and I was remembering how NVDA was trading premkt when it had those random flushes. I guess it was a completely different scenario though but either way I put a stop that got hit and I got out for .20 profit. Of course it held a higher low and then at the open it started ramping towards $59. I'm not sure if I would have held on for the open, perhaps I could have put a breakeven stop or a stop below 56.95 which was the point I was risking off of in premarket. Anyway, it ramped to $59 and then started coming off. It came back down to $58 and there was another refreshing bidder. So I know I said that I wouldn't take any L2 trades but this was different. It was holding there for a while, it was at a premkt support level, and my thesis for it so far was holding up so overall I thought it was worth a shot to go long. I only gave it 10 cents below $58 because if he didn't hold up then I wanted to wait until I could get a better price at vwap or something else. Eventually he broke and I got stopped out. I wasn't really concerned about this though because like I said, there were a few things going for it and honestly had it worked I would have been pissed I didn't do more size so no big deal there. Later on it came back to some other support from premkt - which I should have outlined. I definitely have to get better at that even though it may not have hit where I would have placed my bid. After that it started to look like it wanted to go back up with some higher lows and almost an ABCD pattern. It tested towards that $58 level and I thought this was a case to use a breakout trade as it was an important level and it was low risk to see if the breakout would work or not plus everything else described. I should have used more size as well on this. It broke above $58 and started making its way back up. There was a seller in the $58.30ish range. I put my buy stop above there to add because I figured if it cleared that then it would have immediate followthrough. Well it cleared it and then started coming off. And then I decided that if it failed there then it was done for good so I put a breakeven stop and that got hit and then it ended up consolidating and then going higher without me. Afterwards, it retested the prior spot a few times on dips and while one dip went lower than the other, it still held the level as support so there is a lesson right there. So this is the story how I bought the lows premarket and still ended up being down on it. A lot of good lessons here: 1. Depending on the situation, premarket trades can be ok and you can stay with it if you have a cushion. 2. Outline more levels from premarket. These can play a role when you don't believe they will. 3. Don't take the chart literally and think "it has to happen right here and now". Stocks and therefore charts can do a number of things before it goes your way. Here, it broke out above that small level and then came off but the trend was still valid. I just had a horrible add. Had I just stuck with my breakout trade and then added on dips which it did do like I mentioned above, then it would have gone a lot smoother. Just trade off the s/r levels. I am making things a lot harder than they need to be.
NVDA: Definitely some missed opportunity on this and I completely misread it. Basically I was buying dips when I should have been shorting pops. At the open I was open to playing it either way because I wasn't sure if everybody got squeezed out or not. At the same time I have seen the big red candle with big volume as indicative as a top and although I was bullish the day before, now I wasn't sure if there were a bunch of shorts still in it. So I thought that I would let the chart tell me but I misread it due to some key mistakes. I incorrectly put just one level as a support/resistance line from a few days ago while it should have been a zone with a couple of lines (I know better). So I thought it was bouncing off support but actually it just hitting resistance and failing and against vwap as well. Instead of looking at the bigger picture of it hitting against resistance/vwap, I just looked at the little candles and said oh this looks like it is reclaiming support and has a higher low and it broke above the trendline. Where I bought was a perfect short! I realized my mistake and got out for a tiny loss but it's a couple of tiny losses too many. The lesson here is to just use overall support and resistance to base your trades off of and that is it.
Other stocks:
OPK: This was a complete miss as well. I had a feeling this would fade off on the news. The premarket resistance level was $10.09 and after it made the morning flush it got back up there. Now I was right to think that just because it flushed at the open, it doesn't mean that it won't be a good short later on. While it was up there I thought about shorting it but didn't because I thought it could go higher. This ended up being the top. It offered a spot again to short when it was under vwap but I was a bit too late with that although that would have worked. Lesson: Again just use s/r levels and take the trade over/under risk and that's it.
GDX: I didn't trade this either but this is a really, really prominent example of just using s/r levels and not worrying about the intraday patterns. This was going right into resistance but because it just broke out from a "flag" I decided to not try anything. 4 days up and running right into major resistance. So despite the apparent breakout - of course support/resistance played a big role especially when it's up 4 days up or so in a row. So that is the major lesson right there. Also, again going back to the premarket levels and knowing your levels more- while I charted the important levels from the hourly that gave me those huge resistance levels, I have to be better with charting premarket levels so that when I see it pop back to premarket levels I can make quick decisions and go in.
Things to work on:
1. Charting all levels better with the premarket and also with zones of s/r.
2. Know that s/r and the overall condition of the stock (4 days straight up as an ex.) is more important than a small pattern intraday.
3. Don't take the chart literally and think "it has to happen right here and now". Stocks and therefore charts can do a number of things before it goes your way.
4. SHORT AGAINST RESISTANCE AND BUY AT SUPPORT. THE END.... Unless in unusual times of volatility.
CAB: I somehow ended up down slightly on the longside on this even though I bought $57 in premarket... Yes, you heard me right. I bought it at $57 and it went to $59 eventually and throughout the day I ended up down on it. What ended up happening was I was long $57 due to a consolidation pattern and the fact that I thought the move was overdone to the downside as the acquisition was still happening, it just won't happen on the same schedule as before. I figured some funds would liquidate and some other would pick it up to give it a shot. With the consolidation, I also saw an aggressive bidder that kept refreshing. The thing was that I was afraid since it was premarket and the liquidity wasn't the greatest and I was remembering how NVDA was trading premkt when it had those random flushes. I guess it was a completely different scenario though but either way I put a stop that got hit and I got out for .20 profit. Of course it held a higher low and then at the open it started ramping towards $59. I'm not sure if I would have held on for the open, perhaps I could have put a breakeven stop or a stop below 56.95 which was the point I was risking off of in premarket. Anyway, it ramped to $59 and then started coming off. It came back down to $58 and there was another refreshing bidder. So I know I said that I wouldn't take any L2 trades but this was different. It was holding there for a while, it was at a premkt support level, and my thesis for it so far was holding up so overall I thought it was worth a shot to go long. I only gave it 10 cents below $58 because if he didn't hold up then I wanted to wait until I could get a better price at vwap or something else. Eventually he broke and I got stopped out. I wasn't really concerned about this though because like I said, there were a few things going for it and honestly had it worked I would have been pissed I didn't do more size so no big deal there. Later on it came back to some other support from premkt - which I should have outlined. I definitely have to get better at that even though it may not have hit where I would have placed my bid. After that it started to look like it wanted to go back up with some higher lows and almost an ABCD pattern. It tested towards that $58 level and I thought this was a case to use a breakout trade as it was an important level and it was low risk to see if the breakout would work or not plus everything else described. I should have used more size as well on this. It broke above $58 and started making its way back up. There was a seller in the $58.30ish range. I put my buy stop above there to add because I figured if it cleared that then it would have immediate followthrough. Well it cleared it and then started coming off. And then I decided that if it failed there then it was done for good so I put a breakeven stop and that got hit and then it ended up consolidating and then going higher without me. Afterwards, it retested the prior spot a few times on dips and while one dip went lower than the other, it still held the level as support so there is a lesson right there. So this is the story how I bought the lows premarket and still ended up being down on it. A lot of good lessons here: 1. Depending on the situation, premarket trades can be ok and you can stay with it if you have a cushion. 2. Outline more levels from premarket. These can play a role when you don't believe they will. 3. Don't take the chart literally and think "it has to happen right here and now". Stocks and therefore charts can do a number of things before it goes your way. Here, it broke out above that small level and then came off but the trend was still valid. I just had a horrible add. Had I just stuck with my breakout trade and then added on dips which it did do like I mentioned above, then it would have gone a lot smoother. Just trade off the s/r levels. I am making things a lot harder than they need to be.
NVDA: Definitely some missed opportunity on this and I completely misread it. Basically I was buying dips when I should have been shorting pops. At the open I was open to playing it either way because I wasn't sure if everybody got squeezed out or not. At the same time I have seen the big red candle with big volume as indicative as a top and although I was bullish the day before, now I wasn't sure if there were a bunch of shorts still in it. So I thought that I would let the chart tell me but I misread it due to some key mistakes. I incorrectly put just one level as a support/resistance line from a few days ago while it should have been a zone with a couple of lines (I know better). So I thought it was bouncing off support but actually it just hitting resistance and failing and against vwap as well. Instead of looking at the bigger picture of it hitting against resistance/vwap, I just looked at the little candles and said oh this looks like it is reclaiming support and has a higher low and it broke above the trendline. Where I bought was a perfect short! I realized my mistake and got out for a tiny loss but it's a couple of tiny losses too many. The lesson here is to just use overall support and resistance to base your trades off of and that is it.
Other stocks:
OPK: This was a complete miss as well. I had a feeling this would fade off on the news. The premarket resistance level was $10.09 and after it made the morning flush it got back up there. Now I was right to think that just because it flushed at the open, it doesn't mean that it won't be a good short later on. While it was up there I thought about shorting it but didn't because I thought it could go higher. This ended up being the top. It offered a spot again to short when it was under vwap but I was a bit too late with that although that would have worked. Lesson: Again just use s/r levels and take the trade over/under risk and that's it.
GDX: I didn't trade this either but this is a really, really prominent example of just using s/r levels and not worrying about the intraday patterns. This was going right into resistance but because it just broke out from a "flag" I decided to not try anything. 4 days up and running right into major resistance. So despite the apparent breakout - of course support/resistance played a big role especially when it's up 4 days up or so in a row. So that is the major lesson right there. Also, again going back to the premarket levels and knowing your levels more- while I charted the important levels from the hourly that gave me those huge resistance levels, I have to be better with charting premarket levels so that when I see it pop back to premarket levels I can make quick decisions and go in.
Things to work on:
1. Charting all levels better with the premarket and also with zones of s/r.
2. Know that s/r and the overall condition of the stock (4 days straight up as an ex.) is more important than a small pattern intraday.
3. Don't take the chart literally and think "it has to happen right here and now". Stocks and therefore charts can do a number of things before it goes your way.
4. SHORT AGAINST RESISTANCE AND BUY AT SUPPORT. THE END.... Unless in unusual times of volatility.
Thursday, December 29, 2016
Trading Recap 12/29/16
Today was a decent green day. While it was green though, I have to be hard on myself for not really capitalizing on what was a prime setup and the stock acted exactly how I envisioned it would the day before. The bullshit trades that you do really don't just affect your pnl directly but also indirectly through the other trades that you are actually prepared for but you don't capitalize on them to the fullest extent. So no more bullshit trades and much more going long and short on dips and pops. Also, I have to be much more prepared for the stocks I want to trade with the key levels of inflection and also better levels that I know of (I am good at this but need to be better). Also, and I have said this before, but realizing anything can happen and just putting the trade on using just s/r is the best way to success I realize now and not just some random patterns (although of course at times they are useful). That is the only thing that is consistent through every trade - just putting on a trade based on support or resistance and giving it the proper room needed.
MBLY: I thought the news was pretty fluffy so I was short biased. I wasn't going to short it right at the open or anything thouugh, I wanted to see lower highs or something to short. It ended up having some decent volume/stuff at 37.30s so I shorted around there. I was in the money a bit as it got to vwap but my idea for it was to retest premkt lows. It started bouncing and I added on what I thought would be a lower high but that didn't work so I just got out for a tiny loss on the position. Then I tried it on some level 2 trade which of course didn't work as I saw it couldn't get past a certain level. I tried it one last time when it had a fake breakout and then came off and looked to have had a lower high afterwards. It was just chopping around and the more it sat there and didn't fade the more I didn't like it so I took it off for flat which was a good call as it ended up being an all day trender. It offered nice dips along the way up and was a nice breakout from the morning range once it got going. I took it off watch to focus on other stocks. Lessons: Don't anticipate highs/lows etc. No level 2 trades and no bullshit minute patterns. Just look at the chart and give it enough room. Of course, fake highs and low don't have to be it although at best you will be able to re-enter your position at a higher/lower price as they always pops/drop before going in the same direction again..
KATE: Kind of a bullshit pattern trade. Thought it had a fake breakout and came back under vwap and would fade back to 17. It just ended up chopping around until that big spike came. Lesson: Don't waste time with these trades.
IONS: Thought it looked weak for day 3 continuation. I wasn't paying too much attention to it so I missed some pops etc when it was first going lower. Eventually I got in and was looking for a fade to a big support area on the daily/hourly. It got close but then had a fake low so I moved my stop up and got hit. I ended up with a tiny gain on it. It got back to vwap and I thought it could break it because Adam F tweeted about it and it is definitely iffy when he tweets because it either causes the stock to drop or the crowd comes in and then it squeezes so I wanted to be careful on it in case it was the latter. When it started making some more lower highs I got back in thinking there would be no squeeze. It went a bit lower but not to my target and came back and started going higher so I got out again for a tiny win after it made another fakeish low. Then it just ended up trending lower for the rest of the day. Lesson: Overall trend for a stock is more important than fake lows/highs. Still be wary and either sell/cover after them and reenter your position.
LABU: Just had this on watch and saw a nice pattern after support became resistance and shorted it then. Covered too early although I looked for a potential spot where it could go to but it went past that. Sometimes you get a good cover price and sometimes you could have gotten a lot more. I guess cover half although I didn't have that many shares but it's whatever. Or just trail your stop.
NVDA: This was a big miss for me and is the stock I mentioned in the intro. I had the feeling it would washout, get shorts excited, then higher lows and then ramp. I tried going long in the morning but didn't give it enough room and was a bit early. However, once it started holding the important premkt levels then that was a good spot to get in. Once it got above vwap and perked were good adds. I tried going long at 106 due to a very convincing bid there. I know I shouldn't trade based on l2 but the l2 matched with what the chart was saying and it was a lot more convincing than other things. It worked this time as well ... but not before blipping lower a few pennies and not giving it enough room. So I missed a big trade by a cent or two.. Later on, I saw it consolidating and thought it was worth a breakout attempt on this as it was definitely punishing shorts and that trade worked up to r/g level. Later on, a good attempt at going long was where it dipped at premkt levels but I didn't have this level defined and wasn't paying too much attention. So that was a mistake. A bigger lesson is to not take the chart "literally". What I mean by that is I thought the stock was going to rollover because it had a lower high and then started to curl lower and looked like it was going to breakdown. Instead, it ripped in your face and started the next move higher. Overall, the trend was bullish and it was a spot to get long at a good support level. There is no "the stock is curling lower so it should do this" or etc. Just the major support/resistance levels - a stock doesn't have to do anything at that particular point and time - it can still do what you want but in a different fashion than what you think. Later on, I tried a couple of breakouts but they each failed so I lost and was flat on most of them. Had I just bought a dip and got a decent entry and held, I wouldn't have had to worry about anything even if it was with smaller size. Multiple lessons here: The stuff mentioned in the intro and giving things enough room and starting with smaller size and then adding in on confirmation.
Things to remember:
1. Stuff in the intro.
2. Small size and winning is better than nothing.
3. Overall trend for a stock is more important than fake lows/highs. Still be wary and either sell/cover after them and reenter your position.
4. Don't anticipate highs/lows etc. No level 2 trades and no bullshit minute patterns. Just look at the chart and give it enough room.
5. So no more bullshit trades and much more going long and short on dips and pops.
6. I have to be much more prepared for the stocks I want to trade with the key levels of inflection and also better levels that I know of (I am good at this but need to be better).
7. A bigger lesson is to not take the chart "literally". What I mean by that is I thought the stock was going to rollover because it had a lower high and then started to curl lower and looked like it was going to breakdown. There is no "the stock is curling lower so it should do this" or etc. Just the major support/resistance levels - a stock doesn't have to do anything at that particular point and time - it can still do what you want but in a different fashion than what you think.
MBLY: I thought the news was pretty fluffy so I was short biased. I wasn't going to short it right at the open or anything thouugh, I wanted to see lower highs or something to short. It ended up having some decent volume/stuff at 37.30s so I shorted around there. I was in the money a bit as it got to vwap but my idea for it was to retest premkt lows. It started bouncing and I added on what I thought would be a lower high but that didn't work so I just got out for a tiny loss on the position. Then I tried it on some level 2 trade which of course didn't work as I saw it couldn't get past a certain level. I tried it one last time when it had a fake breakout and then came off and looked to have had a lower high afterwards. It was just chopping around and the more it sat there and didn't fade the more I didn't like it so I took it off for flat which was a good call as it ended up being an all day trender. It offered nice dips along the way up and was a nice breakout from the morning range once it got going. I took it off watch to focus on other stocks. Lessons: Don't anticipate highs/lows etc. No level 2 trades and no bullshit minute patterns. Just look at the chart and give it enough room. Of course, fake highs and low don't have to be it although at best you will be able to re-enter your position at a higher/lower price as they always pops/drop before going in the same direction again..
KATE: Kind of a bullshit pattern trade. Thought it had a fake breakout and came back under vwap and would fade back to 17. It just ended up chopping around until that big spike came. Lesson: Don't waste time with these trades.
IONS: Thought it looked weak for day 3 continuation. I wasn't paying too much attention to it so I missed some pops etc when it was first going lower. Eventually I got in and was looking for a fade to a big support area on the daily/hourly. It got close but then had a fake low so I moved my stop up and got hit. I ended up with a tiny gain on it. It got back to vwap and I thought it could break it because Adam F tweeted about it and it is definitely iffy when he tweets because it either causes the stock to drop or the crowd comes in and then it squeezes so I wanted to be careful on it in case it was the latter. When it started making some more lower highs I got back in thinking there would be no squeeze. It went a bit lower but not to my target and came back and started going higher so I got out again for a tiny win after it made another fakeish low. Then it just ended up trending lower for the rest of the day. Lesson: Overall trend for a stock is more important than fake lows/highs. Still be wary and either sell/cover after them and reenter your position.
LABU: Just had this on watch and saw a nice pattern after support became resistance and shorted it then. Covered too early although I looked for a potential spot where it could go to but it went past that. Sometimes you get a good cover price and sometimes you could have gotten a lot more. I guess cover half although I didn't have that many shares but it's whatever. Or just trail your stop.
NVDA: This was a big miss for me and is the stock I mentioned in the intro. I had the feeling it would washout, get shorts excited, then higher lows and then ramp. I tried going long in the morning but didn't give it enough room and was a bit early. However, once it started holding the important premkt levels then that was a good spot to get in. Once it got above vwap and perked were good adds. I tried going long at 106 due to a very convincing bid there. I know I shouldn't trade based on l2 but the l2 matched with what the chart was saying and it was a lot more convincing than other things. It worked this time as well ... but not before blipping lower a few pennies and not giving it enough room. So I missed a big trade by a cent or two.. Later on, I saw it consolidating and thought it was worth a breakout attempt on this as it was definitely punishing shorts and that trade worked up to r/g level. Later on, a good attempt at going long was where it dipped at premkt levels but I didn't have this level defined and wasn't paying too much attention. So that was a mistake. A bigger lesson is to not take the chart "literally". What I mean by that is I thought the stock was going to rollover because it had a lower high and then started to curl lower and looked like it was going to breakdown. Instead, it ripped in your face and started the next move higher. Overall, the trend was bullish and it was a spot to get long at a good support level. There is no "the stock is curling lower so it should do this" or etc. Just the major support/resistance levels - a stock doesn't have to do anything at that particular point and time - it can still do what you want but in a different fashion than what you think. Later on, I tried a couple of breakouts but they each failed so I lost and was flat on most of them. Had I just bought a dip and got a decent entry and held, I wouldn't have had to worry about anything even if it was with smaller size. Multiple lessons here: The stuff mentioned in the intro and giving things enough room and starting with smaller size and then adding in on confirmation.
Things to remember:
1. Stuff in the intro.
2. Small size and winning is better than nothing.
3. Overall trend for a stock is more important than fake lows/highs. Still be wary and either sell/cover after them and reenter your position.
4. Don't anticipate highs/lows etc. No level 2 trades and no bullshit minute patterns. Just look at the chart and give it enough room.
5. So no more bullshit trades and much more going long and short on dips and pops.
6. I have to be much more prepared for the stocks I want to trade with the key levels of inflection and also better levels that I know of (I am good at this but need to be better).
7. A bigger lesson is to not take the chart "literally". What I mean by that is I thought the stock was going to rollover because it had a lower high and then started to curl lower and looked like it was going to breakdown. There is no "the stock is curling lower so it should do this" or etc. Just the major support/resistance levels - a stock doesn't have to do anything at that particular point and time - it can still do what you want but in a different fashion than what you think.
Wednesday, December 28, 2016
Trading Recap 12/28/16
Another losing day. It is really starting to feel like the summer of last year again, which I thought I never would get back to. I feel like I have regressed as a trader to be honest. I think it is all these bullshit trades. The little patterns I have seen before don't work unless it's a very high moving stock. So no more of those. From now on, unless it is high moving then the little candle patterns won't be traded. I have gotten too much into shorting breakdowns and buying breakouts and should go back to pops and dips like I first was in the beginning but with some of the nuanced experience I have learned. On a stock like NVDA today obviously it worked with shorting breakdowns and such and those are exceptions. Back when I had the ST acct I had to have a somewhat ok entry and I would never chase at all. I need to get back into that frame of mind - no more FOMO and making what should be a short at resistance trade a breakdown trade and chasing it. Also if you end up covering/selling too early don't be too hard on yourself as you never know what will happen.
LIVE: I knew this POS stock would go down but I kept trying bullshit trades on it and getting out for flat every time because it was a bullshit trade. Shorting at pops/vwap in the beginning would have been worth it. It got pumped up by chat rooms and I didn't short it then even though that was the most opportune moment to do it. I didn't have much conviction in it/ wasn't sure where it would top out despite the volume coming in. Honestly I'm not sure whether to chalk things up anymore to "anything can happen" and thus don't be too hard on yourself when you don't go in something because "it could have gone higher" etc. There wasn't too much of a clearly defined level from premkt otherwise I would have been more inclined to try it. Afterwards it had a somewhat decent pattern that I tried but I got out for flat. It would have worked had I didn't put a breakeven stop but my entry was bad and it was low vol so I didn't want to take any chances.
TSLA: Some other bullshit trades with little patterns that don't work. I tried a level 2 absorbing offer trade that I knew it wouldn't work but tried it anyway. Bad. I stopped trading it after I realized the move was done in the morning and it wasn't going to have any followthrough. Lesson: No bullshit trades. Honestly it shouldn't have been on my radar anyway for the most part since it has just been grinding up on the daily. If you caught it at the open it was a nice short but otherwise meh.
DUST: Looking at the GDX running right into resistance and then having a nice pattern for a move lower, I went long DUST on a breakout/after the pattern seemingly confirmed. But all I did was buy a fake breakout and I just got out when it started failing immediately. Not sure what to think about this trade since the pattern usually works but I think it may work in other scenarios better like a low float BS stock vs. GDX which has been breaking out overall on the higher timeframe from its small consolidation.
Other stocks:
NVDA: A complete miss on this but not for being afraid or anything. I really thought that after the Cintron report it would get very crowded short and it wouldn't fade as much as it did at all and might actually reverse but I guess not. I saw the vwap touch and thought about it but figured it was still stuck with a bunch of shorts who are patient and might still squeeze them out. I guess not. Not sure what to learn from this other than sometimes don't doubt the effects of Cintron...
IONS: I had this on watch for a potential 2nd day fade and it setup very nicely with a pop to vwap and then fade with lower highs which offered spots to add. I just didn't get in and I still don't know why. I guess I had low confidence and figured it wouldn't work. Stupid.
Things to remember:
1. Don't doubt a well-timed Cintron report.
2. No bullshit trades - pops and dips.
LIVE: I knew this POS stock would go down but I kept trying bullshit trades on it and getting out for flat every time because it was a bullshit trade. Shorting at pops/vwap in the beginning would have been worth it. It got pumped up by chat rooms and I didn't short it then even though that was the most opportune moment to do it. I didn't have much conviction in it/ wasn't sure where it would top out despite the volume coming in. Honestly I'm not sure whether to chalk things up anymore to "anything can happen" and thus don't be too hard on yourself when you don't go in something because "it could have gone higher" etc. There wasn't too much of a clearly defined level from premkt otherwise I would have been more inclined to try it. Afterwards it had a somewhat decent pattern that I tried but I got out for flat. It would have worked had I didn't put a breakeven stop but my entry was bad and it was low vol so I didn't want to take any chances.
TSLA: Some other bullshit trades with little patterns that don't work. I tried a level 2 absorbing offer trade that I knew it wouldn't work but tried it anyway. Bad. I stopped trading it after I realized the move was done in the morning and it wasn't going to have any followthrough. Lesson: No bullshit trades. Honestly it shouldn't have been on my radar anyway for the most part since it has just been grinding up on the daily. If you caught it at the open it was a nice short but otherwise meh.
DUST: Looking at the GDX running right into resistance and then having a nice pattern for a move lower, I went long DUST on a breakout/after the pattern seemingly confirmed. But all I did was buy a fake breakout and I just got out when it started failing immediately. Not sure what to think about this trade since the pattern usually works but I think it may work in other scenarios better like a low float BS stock vs. GDX which has been breaking out overall on the higher timeframe from its small consolidation.
Other stocks:
NVDA: A complete miss on this but not for being afraid or anything. I really thought that after the Cintron report it would get very crowded short and it wouldn't fade as much as it did at all and might actually reverse but I guess not. I saw the vwap touch and thought about it but figured it was still stuck with a bunch of shorts who are patient and might still squeeze them out. I guess not. Not sure what to learn from this other than sometimes don't doubt the effects of Cintron...
IONS: I had this on watch for a potential 2nd day fade and it setup very nicely with a pop to vwap and then fade with lower highs which offered spots to add. I just didn't get in and I still don't know why. I guess I had low confidence and figured it wouldn't work. Stupid.
Things to remember:
1. Don't doubt a well-timed Cintron report.
2. No bullshit trades - pops and dips.
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